The Best Defense

Iraq, the unraveling (XXXVIII): Will it exist in 5 years?

Best Defense is in summer re-runs. This item originally ran on January 6, 2010.

A friend with decades of experience in intelligence makes the prediction that Iraq eventually will cease to exist, perhaps just five years from now, with the big pieces swallowed up by Syria, Iran and perhaps Turkey and some other neighbors, and with an independent Kurdistan in the middle:

Within the next five years I see Syria moving into southern Mesopotamia, then being pushed south by the Kurds, further thwarted by the combination of the desert and home problems from Lebanon and Israel, to be stopped no further east than al Haibbaniyah by the threatening Saudis. 

Iran will move on all fronts into Iraq except the southeastern corner around al Basrah where Kuwaiti and Saudi forces aided by the US will stop them... and in the northeast arrested by Kurds supported by the US.

Meanwhile, here is more from Joel Wing, known to fans of this blog's comment pages as Jwing.

(HT to Blake Hounshell, who has yet to appear on Great Satan's Girlfriend)

Kurdistan KURD/flickr

The Best Defense

Summertime, and the blogging is easy

For this month and the next, Best Defense mainly will be in re-runs. But because there are some things going on, especially in the Middle East, Tom will remain vigilant and will surface as needed.

Speaking of Iraq, there is an interesting pattern: Sadr and Chalibi rising. Lesson? The more you antagonized the Americans from 2004 to 2011, the better off you are now in Iraq. Speaking of discredited leaders, here's a good story about former Prime Minister Blair

And a big welcome home to the Maine National Guard unit that should be ending their long journey home from Afghanistan right about now.