Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

I think so -- by moving to stabilize the oil market. I'd be interested in seeing a chart highlighting Saudi interventions in the oil market during American presidential election years.

Anyone know of such a study? My bet is that the Saudis tend to favor incumbents. 

Wikimedia

 

MAIGARI

10:40 AM ET

March 21, 2012

The Sauds Vote For O?

Yes and far more than the OIL market, the Obama Administration is their best bet to keep Democracy and the all that rubbish talk on Human Rgihts OUT of their Holy land!

 

CHARLIEFORD

10:48 AM ET

March 21, 2012

Of course the Saudis . . .

. . . are going to support a fellow Muslim.

Like, duh.

Seriously, I would think they'd be looking first, at a candidate's potential attitude towards arms sales to the Saudis. Second, I'd guess they would be concerned about the candidate's likelihood to stir the pot with Iran. Third, they would be watching whether the candidate would be likely to antagonize the Palestinian situation.

Those are entirely evidence-free speculations, btw.

 

VIC LESPERANCE

11:29 AM ET

March 21, 2012

Studies on Saudi Oil Output and US Presidential Elections

I just did a quick search and no particular study jumped out. There was an article by Bernard Haykel title "Saudi Angle on US Elections" in 2008 in the Harvard MIddle Eastern Studies Center web site. His assertion was that the royal family generally preferred Republicans except for Jimmy Carter because of his recognition of the Palestinians.

The Saudis seem to be most motivated by issues surrounding Israel and arms sales. There is no apparent connection between elections and oil production based on the literature. You are probably right that a study exists somewhere on this topic but I didn't find in my brief foray into the area.

 

VIC LESPERANCE

11:29 AM ET

March 21, 2012

Studies on Saudi Oil Output and US Presidential Elections

I just did a quick search and no particular study jumped out. There was an article by Bernard Haykel title "Saudi Angle on US Elections" in 2008 in the Harvard MIddle Eastern Studies Center web site. His assertion was that the royal family generally preferred Republicans except for Jimmy Carter because of his recognition of the Palestinians.

The Saudis seem to be most motivated by issues surrounding Israel and arms sales. There is no apparent connection between elections and oil production based on the literature. You are probably right that a study exists somewhere on this topic but I didn't find in my brief foray into the area.

 

BRET

1:04 PM ET

March 21, 2012

Not necessarily a vote--but it does not matter

Two things:

First, I don't think that this is a vote. Obama and (serious) GOP candidates have similar stances on Iran. Saudi Arabia just wants its arms sales, stability, and America's blessing.

Second, this dent in oil prices is short term. Saudi Arabia does not have the ability to sustain this high rate of oil production. In addition to physically stressing production fields, it is not economically feasible (they're paying $150k+ for jackup rigs--ridiculous).

Really, the Saudis are taking a financial hit for America; it's like Amazon offering next-day shipping for free. Why? My guess is that they are worried that outrageous oil prices will spark a movement for the US to "detach" itself from its energy interests in the Persian Gulf (detaching through drilling in NA, moving away from oil, etc). If this happens, the US will feel less inclined to toss $60B to the Saudis.

 

JBMOORE61

1:40 PM ET

March 21, 2012

looks more like oil market price manipulation by Wall Street

The spikes coincide with Wall Street manipulation and speculation of oil commodity prices (oil futures). I seem to remember a blurb about the Saudis warning the US of manipulation of the oil market in one of the Wikileaks cables. This is a bad time for oil prices to go up for an incumbent.

 

JPWREL

4:16 PM ET

March 21, 2012

First of all the oil market

First of all the oil market is too massive and diverse for Wall Street to manipulate and secondly if prices are going up it is better now that in the autumn. Lastly, there is not a damn thing that Obama or the holier than thou Romney could do if elected to effect oil prices in the short term.

Usually, when I hear people talk about the dark forces of Wall Street doing short-term manipulation of a global market in oil it tells me they know nothing how the markets actually work. Look, I am not trying to take Wall Street off the hook. They do enough dumb things that are real so it is not necessary to dream up more questionable behavior on their part.

 

RVN SF VET

5:30 PM ET

March 22, 2012

I KNOW THAT JPWREL

knows far more about Wall Street than most of us, but I will place some blame on the Chicago commodity traders and their worldwide brethren who take any rumor and go nuts.

I have noted that in the two latest Bush elections, gasoline prices on the East Coast dropped significantly prior to the presidential election. Over the following 2 months they gradually went right back up. It stinks. I think that the oil companies could do it on their own. Of course, I think that the oil industry bankrolled him throughout his "career."

 

DELTA22

12:38 AM ET

March 22, 2012

-

Wasn't that massive drop in oil price due to the recession? I doubt even the Saudis have enough reserve capacity to intentionally drop the price by that much.

 

BEARCAT

9:50 AM ET

March 22, 2012

Compressed Natural Gas

I am keeping my eye out for CNG. Natural gas prices are low. It is a good bridge to whatever comes next (electric or fuel cell). The good thing about CNG is it is not really a commodity where the price is set world wide (like oil and petrol). It is too hard to move Liquid Natural Gas around the world. Even in different regions of US the price varies by 200 or 300%. Maybe able to buy a GGE for less than a dollar in OK or little over a dollar in South KS (might cost 2-3 times that on the coasts).

There may be nothing wrong with the Volt (and other plugin hybrids from hell) except it cost $37-40K. CNG is not like that, engines cost a little more than gassers, a little less than diesels.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

10:16 AM ET

March 23, 2012

One of the few intelligent, or at least disinterested

and to the common good, things Cheney said is that Nuclear power is an important part of our nation's energy policy.

The aftermath of the Japanese disasters has been truly unfortunate, reviving irrational fears regarding Nuclear power. Germany, in particular, acted like a bunch of posturing idiots. Fear of nuclear power seems to be a stance beloved of latter-day Luddites, not hippies- these Luddites got clout, and the general fear of any sort of danger that leads to technocratic tyrannies. The typical bureaucrat and politician cover-my-backside-at-all-costs approach enables the latter, cowardly approach to governance. Of course the OPEC nations are benefiting from this.

The Saudis are pretty shrewd, they figure Obama will win, so better to get in good with the front runner. In an ideal world we'd elect the presidential candidate who would give the Saudis conniptions- Dr. Ron Paul.

 

COOPERGERMAIN

12:22 AM ET

April 20, 2012

The Saudis seem to be most

The Saudis seem to be most motivated by issues surrounding Israel and arms sales. There is no apparent connection between elections and oil production based on the literature. You are probably right that green europe a study exists somewhere on this topic but I didn't find in my brief foray into the area.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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