Monday, January 30, 2012 - 6:14 AM

By Richard Fontaine
Best Defense department of politico-policy affairs
As your
post and nearly every article on the subject notes, "everyone
knows" that 2012 will not be a foreign policy election. As the polls
demonstrate, four-fifths of Americans want the president to focus on
domestic issues, not international ones, and less than five percent of voters
list foreign policy as the most important issue in the election. No
surprises here; the U.S. is in difficult economic straits, and as the United States winds
down in Afghanistan after ending the war in Iraq, pocketbook issues will
dominate the campaign.
This does not mean, however, that voters will not consider foreign policy as
they enter the voting booth. Both eventual candidates, the incumbent president included, will have to demonstrate to the electorate that they pass
the commander-in-chief credibility threshold. They must demonstrate that
they have the knowledge, the temperament, the skills and the wisdom to lead a
superpower in times of both peril and plenty. If they can cross this
threshold, they will still have to make a winning case on domestic
issues. If they cannot, no amount of focus on the American pocketbook
will salvage their chances. Foreign policy will matter in 2012.
This is one reason why some of the Republican candidates were felled by foreign
policy gaffes, even in a year when those gaffes might be seen as
unimportant. It's also why the candidates will work so hard to tout their
own foreign policy credentials -- and undermine their opponents' -- during this
long campaign. Expect to see months of talk about the economy, jobs, and
the proper size of government. These are important debates, and the
candidate who can put together the most compelling platform will be the likely
victor.
But expect also to see healthy doses of foreign policy here and there between now and November. The commander-in-chief hopeful who ignores it completely does so at his peril.
Richard Fontaine is a senior advisor at the Center for a New American Security and teaches the politics of national security in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He previously served at the State Department, on the National Security Council staff, and as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain, including during the 2008 presidential election.
There are gaffes and there are gaffes. However, when it comes to credibility, there is but a fine line between the ridiculous and the weighty. Perhaps the finest illustration is the current tug-of-war apparently on party lines, on which Great American Leader was mid-wife to the 'Arab Spring.' In the red corner we have GWB, in the blue there stands Barack Hussein. Take your pick: was it the Iraq Adventure that precipated, nay, created, this event? Or was it the Cairo Speech of The World's Saviour, he who was awarded a Nobel Prize for... nothing? To be sure, it could easily be neither. But on that point I believe there would be a touching bipartisanship : no, it was only the De Facto World Empire, the Shining City On That Dere Hill from which all spring and shall doubtless spring for all time to come.God says so, so it has to be true.
Well, now we know clearly how you feel politically. But other than giving you the opportunity to vent, I can't say that your contribution has added very much to the otherwise intelligent discussion on this blog.
Bradley Manning probably has as much to do with bringing the Arab Spring as anyone. I really see the guy as a patriot (if what he said to the guy who turned him in is true).
Walt
The three words in this title answer the question. We need energy for our economy and military. We make goods at city A and sell them at cities A, B, C, D, E, and F, or we import goods at port G and sell them at port G and cities H, I, J, K, and L. Our military has ships, aircraft, and ground vehicles. Both our economy and our military require us to import oil from foreign countries, so a foreign policy is essential for jobs, purchases, paychecks, taxes, Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. Trade in energy is one part of our international commerce, but we import and export other products. Caterpillar had high growth in exports to China and Africa in 2011 with China's 12th Five Year Plan and with growing development in Africa. Both regions beat the US in GDP growth, but they gave the US jobs. Lastly, the US fights several wars at this time. Afghanistan is the biggest, but Somalia and Yemen are growing on both sides of a major oil tanker route. Mexico and Nigeria supply oil to the US and their growing insurgencies may bring US military intervention. Wars are part of foreign policy, and oil wars impact jobs and economic growth.
by any objective standards, obama's FP so far stinks.
In order to appease the muslim "street", obama conjured up an approach called "muslim outreach" as the central plank of his FP coupled with his new miraculous "multilateralism"....specifically, he lined up foreign nations to isolate israel and thought that if the arabs thought he might sacrifice israel then he could appease the muslim world...appeasing your enemies by sacrificing your allies is NEVER a wise strategy.
obama was the one sticking it to israel first. He is on board with samantha power, rashid khalidi, zbigniew, freeman, malley, koh, reverand wright, and many many others... all of whom have well known anti israel viewpoints. no, its not because they are friends of israel and friends can talk this way, its because they really have issue with israel that have nothing to do with friends and everything to do with personal bias.
If netanyahu stood up to obama while obama was abusing him, so be it. He is the democratic leader of a free and sovereign state, whose friendship goes back decades....obama picked a fight with bibi for several reasons, not least of which is obama 's own narrative he was schooled on...he also picked the fight in order to APPEASE the muslims so he could be seen to be "fair"....thus tamping down muslim rage...bad advice he received.
obama has tried to interfere in israeli domestic politics from day 1....he has abused bibi in public and shown another head of state extreme discourtesy. His speeches in cairo, and ankara were subtle and not necessarily friendly...his handling of the freeze where he scolded israel and said nothing to the pals was frankly, a disservice to peace talks; he then made another huge blunder by declaring 67 lines IN ADVANCE of peace talks even beginning. Not that SOME aspects of that border wont come into play, but to declare it in advance, was stupid. Then you have his subtle mention of denuclearization for the region which is really a fantasy and smokescreen so he can hopefully get iran onside...
His WHOLE muslim outreach is a gigantic failure, and MUCH of it has to do with bad advice he's received that basically he sought out due to his own personal narrative about the region. He acts like he's still just a guy, but when your president, you HAVE to put your own narrative aside. He can't or won't.
Mr. Obama's whole foreign policy stinks; including the left's new fetish of leading from behind and the platform of muslim outreach, which has been tied to the so called "realists" notion of "treating Israel fairly". I also think the whole focus group contrived "RESET BUTTON" with Russia has been a GIANT failure, what with the removed missiles from Poland and Czech republic while receiving NOTHING in return...and NOW he wants to supply Turkey with an x-band radar (ostensibly through NATO as his cutout so he gets deniability so to speak) knowing that the x-band in turkeys hands drives a big whole through his whole medium range missile shield vis a vis Israel's protection. I think his foreign policy is weak, I think it is dangerous. If everyone wants to lead from behind on the toughest issues like Iran and Syria, then who will lead from the front? It is asinine and the republicans ought not be afraid to confront him on it. Using drones from cozy Las Vegas is fine, and it arguably helps, however, its ‘easy’ to do. Sending in seal team 6 was not easy per se, but it was THE call to make for any president. but these don't make a foreign policy...the whole surge in Afghanistan was made with wrought hands until his team devised a political win in it by suggesting they have a pro hawk FP BECAUSE of the surge , and yet at the same time they announced its departure!...which of course was for the left wing ....but it made NO SENSE FROM A NATIONAL SECURITY point of view...and THAT needs to be attacked...He played politics for domestic electoral needs and put that ahead of sound geopolitical strategy. I call that selfish and I call that a lack of leadership. What happened to the first “post partisan” president? I mean, could the media have been more deceived?
I think Iran will be his 3AM call and it will be his legacy. He PLEDGED in 08 to never allow Iran nuclear weapons...and ever since then, he has subtly been moving towards cold war containment theories, which wont work here, and to nuclear umbrellas which similarly wont work. He needs to be challenged on his words! His whole idea to float a world without nukes is if you ask me, a "direction" he wants to lay out so he can eventually try to denuke iran by ostensibly de-nuking Israel. I am sure this is his aim. Again, it’s naive. As for the "RESET" button with Russia; Just last week Russia announced it will recieve a delegation from hezbollah. Is that part of the new RESET? And what of China? Obama's whole new kinder MULTILATERAL approach was supposed to win over China for new FP initiatives and what does China do? They were offered Saudi oil to replace their Iranian oil (14% of China's oil needs) at lesser prices too and what did they say to Obama? No thank you. Obama should be challenged on all of these issues. I could go on about the handling of the peace process sham, or the Muslim outreach efforts re; Gitmo, “man made disasters”, morandizing on the battlefield, the fort hood Muslim terrorist they wont call a Muslim terrorist, asking NASA to make Muslim outreach its number 1 priority…etc..etc…
Obama’s sleight of hand FP needs to have a bright line shone on it…
Lastly, vis vis israel, his "unshakeable ally"; has he been to his Israel even ONCE since he's president? He's been to ankara, He's been to riyahd, He's been to cairo...but not his BEST FRIEND in the region????.
yes my friends, something in denmark stinks...if it walks and talks like a duck...well, you know the rest...
something around here stinks
That is a Hell of a long rant, dude.
How abot this: let's cut Israel loose to sink or swim until they show they really want peace.
Anti-semitic? No, anti-Israeli.
Walt
The Business of America Is Business
I'll probably vote for Calvin Coolidge again. I don't think a bunch of Military and FSO types understand the way the world works (and I include myself in that category) everything looks like a foreign policy nail.
To a great extent business and economics are not driven by Foreign Policy. Trade is not dependent on your policy it requires having something that other people need or value.
The rise of the Great American Economy happened between Civil War and WWI when US barely HAD a foreign policy (certainly did not have the muscle to enforce "Monroe Doctrine"), US certainly didn't engage in foreign wars prior to Spanish American War. Britain and Germany were rivals prior to WWI, Germany passed Britain in steel production and railroad miles etc... meanwhile completely un-noticed the US became the leader in both those (and nearly every category) and biggest economy in the World by about 1880.
Freedom of the Seas is a useful idea to promote trade, going around the world invading dung heaps does not do much to promote trade. We don't have to pull every string on the planet to have a robust economy.
Look at oil as an example: US is the number 3 oil producer in World, but need more just because we prefer to use oil in vehicles. US has plenty of natural gas; a simple shift to natural gas will make this Oil soaked foreign policy uneccesary. Then we can give up spending trillions of $$ fighting for oil, IOT buy oil for exactly the same commodity price as every other nation in the world.
Suggested revision to 'headline"
"No foreign policy matters in elections." An observation with the verb 'matters' as in such a thing [foreign policy] is so unimportant to the process that it is not present.
"No foreign policy matters in elections!" A command. 'Foreign policy matters' are not to be discussed. Domestic issues only!
"No! Foreign policy matters in elections". The objection and counter-observation with the verb 'matters' in the sense that such things are important to the outcome.
Republicans are better messengers
Foreign policy obviously matters, and probably will as long as we're alive. But people are hurting and I don't see how a Republican can say he's going to be a tougher 'foreign policy' president when Obama sent more US forces to Afghanistan, killed bin Laden, etc. You can talk hard (see: Romney, Iran) but most of the country wants less war.
Just on message, and in this media and political climate, I don't see how Republicans win the foreign policy debate. The guy with legitimate chops hasn't seen any numbers.
But Republicans have proven to be better messengers time and again. Not only is foreign policy not en vogue, but it's not where Republicans can properly ding the president. Doesn't make sense to try and hammer Obama on foreign policy.
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