French foreign minister: Collapse of the Assad regime in Syria nearly inevitable

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Wednesday, October 26, 2011 - 10:50 AM Share

What he said. Thas a bold statement.

Wikimedia Commons

EXPLORE:FRANCE, SYRIA

(4)

HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE

TYRTAIOS

4:28 PM ET

October 26, 2011

Enevitable - to be anticipated?

The French foreign minister's use of the word inevitable is interesting. Using me as an analogy may shed some light on my thinking: I came into this world naked and without teeth, and it seems inevitable, or at least I anticipate, I'll go out that way . . . some day that is

The key to the eye doctor, Bashar al-Assad's survival will probably be dependant on his military. However, unlike Mubarak of Egypt and bin 'Ali of Tunisia, thus far there hasn't been "too" much of a fracture within the Syrian army to hang back and not suppress anti-Damascus protests with violence at Bashar's bidding.

And with good cause, because most of the Syrian senior leadership falls into the 'Alawai sect, the Ba'thist Party, and/or is connected to the al-Assad family. . .The military and government leadership of Syria understands if al-Assad falls, the Alawite ruling minority falls, along with the Ba'th Party, and thus them as well.

So, I suppose the French Foreign Minister Juppe is correct that inevitably al-Assad will fall. However, you will note Juppe followed that up with the caveat that it might take time, but was none too keen to expound on what time could inevitably mean.

BEARCAT

3:25 PM ET

October 27, 2011

Collapse of 5th Republic inevitable

France is already on their 5th Republic.

Only the 3d Republic lasted longer. They are overdue.

I concur w T, enevitable and impending don't mean the same thing.

After everyone blew the call on the collapse of Soviet Union, they acted like N-Korea was ready to collapse any day. I think the collapse of N-Korea is enevitable but not impending.

TOM RICKS

4:57 PM ET

October 27, 2011

Not everyone blew it on the USSR

Two people especially come to mind: Murray Feshbach and Andrei Amalrik. Both wrote in the '60s (Amalrik) and early '80s (Feshbach) that the wheels were going to come off the thing, sooner rather than later.
Best,
Tom

JUPITER

3:07 AM ET

October 28, 2011

If history has taught me only one thing

it is that nothing is inevitable.