I don't automatically blog about every new report from CNAS, but I am particularly struck by one being issued this week about what future defense budget cuts might be and what their effects might be. Bottom line: They say that if the cuts go beyond about $550 billion, it will be difficult to carry out the basic American policy since World War II of being engaged internationally.

Lotsa people are rattling on these days about defense in an age of austerity, but the report's authors -- retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, Nora Bensahel, and Travis Sharp -- do a good job of doing more and showing how the meat will come off the bones. They look at four levels of budget cuts: About $350 billion, about $500 billion, about $650 billion, and about $800 billion.

They don't quite say so, but they seem to favor the first two -- which is significant, because they (at "the Obama Administration's favorite think tank") are saying they could live with $500 billion in cuts. Go much deeper than that, they say, and we start creeping toward isolationism.

The report bursts with provocative thoughts and suggestions. Surprisingly for a study whose lead writer is a retired Army general, it favors the Air Force and Navy over the Army and Marines. It wants to cut both ground forces back to their pre-9/11 sizes. In the deeper cut scenarios, it basically wants the Marines to get out of fixed-wing aviation, both lift and strike. It also wants the Marines out of tanks, and wants the Army to reduce its number of tanks, and to move a lot of the heavy Army force into the Reserves. It wants to radically cut back on buying new weapons, but instead to keep alive R&D until a new threat emerges.

The report also says we will be focusing less on the Middle East in the coming years and more on the Asia/Pacific rim.   

I asked Barno about how the report is going down at the Pentagon. "We did find the Army's reaction a bit more sparky than the other services'," he said. No word yet on whether they are cutting off his pension. Barno also said that operationally, the services are joint, but in budgeting, they have failed to become so.  

Travis Sharp, who reminds me of John Hamre maybe 15 years ago -- someone who really understands the interaction of budget and strategy -- commented that "the services are in a full defensive crouch" right now.

Wikimedia Commons

EXPLORE:ECONOMICS, MILITARY
 

RPM

3:12 PM ET

October 4, 2011

As the old saying goes...

You never really need a couple of heavy divisions, until you really need a couple of heavy divisions.

The cutback to USMC air makes some sense... if the Air Force and Navy could actually be trusted to commit to the ground support role.

 

PENTAKEV

5:48 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Air Force commit?

I'd say the Air Force has done a pretty good job of committing to a ground support role. What do you think those 65-85 CAPs of ISR support are doing? MQ-1/MQ-9/MC-12, etc. All working in support of ground ops.

 

RPM

6:14 PM ET

October 4, 2011

What is the next-generation CAS airframe?

No one questions the bravery or commitment of the forces in theater to do the job with the aircraft they have.

But where is the A-10 replacement? The AF wants all its eggs in the F-22 basket, an aircraft with zero relevance in the modern landscape. The F-35 has some capability, but you are still moving 600 mph. How hard did the AF dig in its heels over drone expansion? Where would we be without the SecDef essentially slapping the service in the face and directing procurement?

And don't get me wrong, the F-22 is a necessary follow on to the F-15. But if the Air Force was really interested in CAS as its primary mission - which it has been since 1946 - then the entire procurement saga of the past 20 years would be a completely different story.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

6:19 PM ET

October 4, 2011

MAGTF

The basic and definative role of the USMC is quick power projection, either from an element afloat in one corner of the world or another or rapidly deployed from CONUS made up of designated combat elements geared to join and go within hours. One can not, contrary to what is continually done, denigrate the value of the Marine Corps by simply stating that the amphibious operation is a thing of the past so therefore the Marine Corps as a smaller version of the US Army and is redundant and unnecessary.

It doesn't work that way. The Marine Corps operates under the concept of a combined/organic ground force; airlift and support and CAS; and logistics in a Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF). Afloat constantly are MEU's (Marine Expeditionary Unit)--a battalion of ground troops, a fixed and a rotor wing squadrons and a battalion of logistic troops along with ATC and under command and control again organic to the force. They are afloat to arrive at potential need across the beach in the shortest amount of time. Larger units of Marine task forces: MEB (Brigade) and MEF (division) elements exist as necessary.

Pulling Marine Air out of the combat unit equation and stating that USAF and/or USN air lift CAS could do the same job is flat out wishing. Wishing the Air Force units are within range or tanker range from day one and specifically dedicated to the Marine ground unit entering the target is just that: wishing.

Would you (not the specfic you RPM) equally state that to save in the coming defense austerity that removal of US Army rotary assets and giving the lift mission to the USAF is viable? Understanding people's call for jointness (cue Hunter)--okay. Then you would be advocating for a single uniform defense service with some of the players walking, some driving and towing, some floating and some flying--a single fighting force.

The USMC with MAGTF already does that.

 

PENTAKEV

6:30 PM ET

October 4, 2011

CAS

Seems like the best AF asset outside the Warthog is probably the AC-130...but as for a replacement, I'll admit, you've got me stumped. As an intel guy, I worry about ISR. Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't throw a gun on the MC-12 one of these days. Or they could just toss bombs off of an airship, old school style. Jokes aside, point taken about the F-22 not being the best tool for the job.

 

HUNTER

7:39 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Oh GSF, per request

LOL, love that I get called upon regularly (I need a Bat-signal).

I just got done talking with a whole bunch of stars. Must be careful on what I reveal but the bottom line is I asked them - "what will you put on the table as a bargaining chip? What are you willing to give up to keep what you think is most important?" They told me they had them, but wouldn't tell me what they were. Which is completely reasonable given the circumstances.

We are about to see bloodletting in the puzzle palace the likes of which would make Brutus blush. Each service will be asked to give, and give, and give til it hurts. Brinksmanship and refusals will only take you so far. Your USMC will likely give too, so take your pick GSF? What should they give? Everyone will be forced to tithe, some may (due to wile) be able to tithe less, but not by much.

As one person noted. If you take away ten percent of the budget, what are ten percent of the requirements/capabilities that you are willing to give up with it? Those who have been around the military for long know the answer all ready; you will do all the same with less.

 

RPM

1:23 PM ET

October 5, 2011

But a MAGTF...

Is never going to find itself in combat without a carrier battle group on station. The Marine F-18s/F-35s are simply nice-to-have, not need-to-have. And that is going to be the core, bottom line question. Who decides those 'needs' is an entirely seperate question.

And I cannot imagine that anyone would consider removing USMC rotary wing capabilities... to include the friggin V-22.

 

TYRTAIOS

3:02 PM ET

October 5, 2011

re: RPM

Do not assume a MAGTF of some configuration would not operate w/o a carrier battle group near by. As it stands today, the ARGs (amphib readiness group) are no longer screened by a carrier task force. . . And remember, a benign humanitarian mission can turn ugly quickly along the littorals, by non-state (and state) actors intervening, that possess state of the art weapons systems.

 

NIL

11:22 AM ET

November 1, 2011

reply

I trying to imagine Jesus calling up Caesar to say, "Caesar, my people aren't doing what I tell them. Would you enact laws to make them do God's will. And if they don't, would you send your troops (but only the straight ones) to make them?" I am always amazed at the theological connection (or lack thereof) between "trust in the Lord" and, in the same breath, calling on government (we the people) to enact anti-gay marriage laws because it is God's will. If God already has a "design for marriage between one man and one woman" then I'm thinking God can handle it without Michelle Bachmann being the "chief author" of government anti-gay marriage legislation. reduction pierre et vacances

 

OTHER RANKS

3:31 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Implosion or damp squib

I see the report won't be released until Friday so we'll have to wait until then for the details, but $80B a year in cuts would leave us with $20B more than we spending in FY02 (adjusted for inflation).

Slashing $500B/yr might put us back towards isolation. $80B out of $600B (or more depending on ongoing operations) is a haircut.

 

OTHER RANKS

3:39 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Real cuts

we spending = we were spending.

If somehow we went to the post Cold War low in FY 98 (a cut of about $2.25T over ten years), I seriously doubt that would keep us from global adventurism. It certainly didn't then.

 

BEARCAT

4:01 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Show me the Strategy!!

What is the National Security Strategy?

What is the National Military Strategy?

Just talking about how much "stuff" we're going to have is a mighty funny way to look at strategy.

What is Homeland Security Role? Cost? What is Intel Community Role? Cost? I think I saw something the other day that said Intel was about $60M?

I am OK with the $500B cut, but then I have a fair sized neo-isolationist streak. Some things (most things) in foreign policy are best left to the DoS, or the debating society in NY/UN ("The US strongly deplores the events in Outer-Bumphobistan!") and when push comes to shove CIA or SOCOM.

If we reduce the number of foreign adventures we can reduce the cost of DoD.

If China decides they want to flex muscles and push us around, we'll come up with a different strategy and the force to support that strategy. The cuts will initially impact a lot harder on Taiwan, Korea, and Japan than they will on US.

 

LESTER_GALULA

4:30 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Strategy?

Don't be silly. This is America. We don't have strategy anymore. We have political pressure to reduce spending.

 

FG42

4:57 PM ET

October 4, 2011

And political strategy to

And political strategy to keep the military-industrial complex alive and well. Hopefully our wise leaders in Washington can find the reasonable "middle point."

 

FG42

4:58 PM ET

October 4, 2011

I meant "political pressure"

I meant "political pressure" vice "political strategy." Sorry.

 

RRWESTY123

2:41 AM ET

October 5, 2011

Show me the Strategy

Amen Bearcat. How can we talk cuts if we don't know what we want DoD to be doing 5, 10, or 20 years down the road. The proposed cuts give you a hint..focus on Asia and less on conventional ground forces and the middle east. But shouldn't we figure out what we want the Services to do before we slash?

 

RUBBER DUCKY

6:19 PM ET

October 4, 2011

It ain't solitaire...

...and our current defense spending exceeds that of the next 20 nations combined. Who we gonna fight? Who wants to fight us? We're Goliath; who's David?

The Services have been drinking their own bathwater so long they think it to be fine wine. And the Iron Triangle has a permanent kink in its lip from its decades at the public teat.

Let's get some balance. Let's get to a military reduced to need and quit serving Service want. Shape a defense-in-being strategy that can always build up faster than any foe but which lives as a cadre military in reserve, the draft, and industrial capacity. Let the US Navy own the earth's ocean and rest the rest of our strategy at home, in deep standby.

The current size of the US military is grotesque. Maybe half would be a good starting point and then downsize from there...

 

KUNINO

6:55 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Rightsizing?

While RUBBER DUCKY thinks the present size of the military grotesque, there's been plenty of suggestion in the past decade that if there were more military, plenty of work would have been found for them in noisy foreign places.

One sensible possibility arising from the CNAS cut suggestions: take out the biggest slice, and elect John McCain. He's the guy who three years ago said the kind of "wars" he approved of -- and apparently would be happy to in future lead -- were those against the might of Guyana and Panama. They'd still be within the grasp of the leaner military establishment.

 

KUNINO

6:56 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Rightsizing?

While RUBBER DUCKY thinks the present size of the military grotesque, there's been plenty of suggestion in the past decade that if there were more military, plenty of work would have been found for them in noisy foreign places.

One sensible possibility arising from the CNAS cut suggestions: take out the biggest slice, and elect John McCain. He's the guy who three years ago said the kind of "wars" he approved of -- and apparently would be happy to in future lead -- were those against the might of Guyana and Panama. They'd still be within the grasp of the leaner military establishment.

 

TYRTAIOS

8:24 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Awhile back, Adm. Mullen felt

Awhile back, Adm. Mullen felt our national debt crisis was the biggest looming threat to our national security. However, incoming Chairman, Gen. Dempsey, who will be in a position to influence Pentagon cost cutting, thinks slightly otherwise, and stated the U.S. can't be successful in managing its national security nor international affairs without asserting influence through a combination of a powerful military (stating that priority first), along with an effective diplomatic corps and a sound economy.

Dempsey’s phrasing along with SecDef Penatta’s previous concern that taking 500 billion, in addition to a minimum of 350 billion already scheduled, "cannot take place," leaves me wondering exactly what is going to take place (besides the quick fix: cutting personnel).

Incidentally, when discussing the refocussing on Asia proper and specifically the Pacific Rim, everyone might want to study what a Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) is all about, and recognize that the MAGTF combined arms team is fully self sufficient, "truely" expeditionary, and is a unique capability that no other country in the world posses. . .taking the "A" out of MAGTF will only diminish and break what isn't broken (the logical airframes another issue).

 

TYRTAIOS

12:50 AM ET

October 5, 2011

P.S.

Funny thing about the implosion of the Kingdome in Seattle, pictured above: amusing, because the citizens of King County are still paying down the bonds for the original construction back in the mid 1970s.

Also at issue at the time, was that neither the Seahawks or Mariners, who shared the stadium, saw their sharing it as profitable. . .the Navy sold the Corps down the drain after WW II. . .I believe they'd cut the green side adrift again if necessary when it comes to naval aviation.

 

TOM RICKS

10:02 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Here's the report

http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_HardChoices_BarnoBensahelSharp_0.pdf

 

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

6:29 AM ET

October 6, 2011

"being engaged internationally"

So that's what you call it. Dividing up the globe into commands, having over 800 military installations worldwide, 11 aircraft carrier strike groups, SOCOM in 120 countries, etc. Wow, I'd hate to see what "married" means.

 

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

6:37 AM ET

October 6, 2011

"creeping toward isolationism"

So isolationism is spending only 50% more on defense than the rest of the world put together. Kudos to you for using two spin doctor words: creeping and isolationism. The anti-sharia people have a copyright on the first, and if you keep using isolationism, you'll be confused even more for Walter Russell Mead.

 

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

6:40 AM ET

October 6, 2011

Oh, PS

I watched the Kingdome implode, but from far away, so the sound took a long time to get there. Eerie, but good riddance. Now if we could just do the same to the Metrodome.

 

STAFF GUY

3:37 AM ET

October 5, 2011

"Show me the Strategy!!" .... I cannot

I would argue that the US does not have national security or military strategies. We certainly have a lot of writing claiming to be these items, but I do not think that the US has had any actual strategies since at least 1989. When we had the USSR the US had an easy strategy: foil them. Overly simplistic, but at the end effectively what we were doing from about 1946 through 1989. Everything the US did built back to that one thing. Now? Not so much.

One could argue that GWOT has replaced the USSR as the overriding foreign consideration that drives US security and military strategies. To my mind GWOT has not filled this void nor will it.

Maybe we should just give up on the idea of having these strategies. Perhaps we, the US, should focus on having security and military strategies that are focused on a 3-8 year window. Presidential politics drive both military usage and national security actions. And every 4 to 8 years we get a new President. Who changes things. Granted, most of the time the changes are not huge, but from a Grand Strategy perspective the changes are large enough.

Admittedly there is a significant problem with this concept in that it takes far longer than one or two Presidential election cycles to grow a useful military. But the arguments surrounding military spending cuts are not centered around capabilities needed in 10 years, they're focused on money now which drives the politics of now.

 

FREDERIK

11:10 AM ET

October 5, 2011

millking the cash cow

Looks like some people got themselves quite a deal with useless stuff...

U.S. Signs Contract For 44.75M Anthrax Vaccine Doses
Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2011

Maryland-based biotechnology firm Emergent BioSolutions on Monday said it had received a $1.25 billion contract to provide the U.S. government with 44.75 million doses of an anthrax vaccine (see GSN, June 1).

BioThrax is the only anthrax vaccine licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

"Emergent is proud to be able to contribute to the U.S. government's program of protecting the nation from the threat of anthrax," company Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Fuad El-Hibri said in provided comments. "This five-year award provides for uninterrupted supply of this critical biodefense countermeasure while addressing the government's mandate to reduce spending across all programs."

Delivery of the first 8.5 million doses is expected within the next year. Completion of the contract is scheduled for September 2016, presuming funding continues. The company also has the right to change the delivery schedule based on production levels and other variables (Emergent BioSolutions release, Oct. 3).
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20111004_1791.php

 

KUNINO

8:55 PM ET

October 5, 2011

Hey, foreign enemies, please respect this timetable

... and don't unleash anthrax against America until some time in 2016.

Much the same point was made by former FBI director Louis J Freeh in May 1998 when in his constant search for headlines, he published via press release his May 1998 testimony to the Senate that the bureau would be in great shape to combat terrorists by 2005. Al-Qaida didn't wait until then, which was to have been expected. Possibly their attention was attracted to this monstroso security breach by its references to al-Qaida itself, and Mr bin Laden by name. They chose to respond the terrorist way, rather than hang around sportingly doing nothing until the Freeh FBI was ready to combat them.

I gather the Emergent vaccine is for only one, named strain of anthrax. Others are as deadly. Possibly, unsporting foreign enemies are looking into the use of strains the Emergent vaccine can't fight.

 

POL-MIL FSO

1:11 PM ET

October 5, 2011

No use for Marine Corps without the MAGTF

Just want to second the comments by Gold Star Father and Tyrtaios about the importance of the MAGTF and the corresponding foolishness of eliminating Marine aviation. The MAGTF concept doesn't work without an aviation component, and all Marine operating forces are organized around the MAGTF construct. Take away the MAGTF and the Marines are no longer an expeditionary force. I doubt that policy makers want to lose that crisis response capability, and I'm sure that CENTCOM doesn't want to lose its strategic reserve provided by a MEU.

 

LESTER_GALULA

2:46 PM ET

October 5, 2011

Whence the Cuts will actually come...

"Readers should note that the four scenarios exclude possible cost savings from reforming military pay and benefits."

Because defense contractors contribute to reelection campaigns and provide jobs in Congressional districts, whereas soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines don't.

Also, a MajGen recently mentioned that including all of the funding for our naval support, the USMC currently uses 7.8% of the DoD's budget, while providing something like 22% of the tactical airlift, 11% of attack aircraft, and 31% of ground forces.

Maybe we should be looking for cuts in the other 92.2% of the DoD's budget?

 

LESTER_GALULA

2:58 PM ET

October 5, 2011

Oh, and regarding the expeditionary MAGTF

We can use maritime prepositioning forces to land a MEB (approx 15k Marines, including, air, armor, artillery, logistics, etc) in any littoral with the equipment to be self-sufficient for 30 days (and it only takes about two weeks). We can land a MEU in any littoral in 7-14 days. If, you know, we wanted to provide disaster relief to Haiti after an earthquake, Pakistan after floods, evacuate some embassies, bomb Libya, etc.

 

FG42

3:25 PM ET

October 5, 2011

@STAFF GUY

""Show me the Strategy!!"

But don't we already have a national strategy that dates back to just after WW2? And this is what drives the need for a defense budget that's bigger than the next 20 nations combined?

Our strategy is to maintain a global network of customers, suppliers, investments, raw materials, etc., that can feed our economy. Now Globalization is extending the reach even of our finance industry. Even our defense allies like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc., also represent important commercial ties. In the old days (200 years ago), the Brits used to call this an "empire." And to top it off, whereas the Brits wanted to bring civilization to the "heathen," our mission is to bring Democracy and Human Rights around the world.

So we must have bases all around the world, expeditionary forces afloat, troops forward-deployed, strategic reserves in CONUS, etc. And with potential enemies all around the world, ranging from a China to rag-tag non-state insurgents, we must have a powerful Air Force to secure air superiority, a large Navy to guard the sea lanes, and of course a powerful Army to provide the boots on the ground. It's not politically correct today to use the "E" word, but let's be frank...it's an empire. And the argument in Washington will be that our defense budget has to be big enough to defend all of it. Severe budget cuts will endanger the empire.

 

STAFF GUY

6:27 AM ET

October 6, 2011

I would buy into this

I would buy into this completely if I believed that Wash DC were capable of thinking this strategically. Individual by individual? Sure, there are probably a fair number in the beltway that push in the direction of US empire building. But together? I read somewhere: none of us individually are as dumb as all of us together. Or something like that.

All that said, I definitely see your point.

 

FG42

1:06 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Rome

I was just trying to sketch out an "empire strategy," possibly exaggerating a bit. And I personally don't fully agree with such a national strategy. If we indeed pursue such a global empire, it's easy to fantasize and see some parallels with good old Rome. The Romans needed full-time legions/professionals to do the non-stop fighting in the far reaches of the empire (and we need an all-volunteer army...an army of wimpy draftees and their mothers would never support an imperial army on constant deployments). And Rome didn't have enough legions even then and had to use the barbarian tribes as allies (we use contractors today). Every now and then, a successful and popular Roman legion commander would come back to Rome and be hailed as a Consul or some such national leader (Petraeus is young; will he run for president after his CIA stint?).

 

HUCKLEBERRY

6:38 PM ET

October 5, 2011

Any Colour You Like

... so long as it is some shade of green...

I read most of the report. I don't think I missed any major points. I'd have to go with Option 5: None of the Above.

None of them go far enough over the long-term. It's stepping over dollars to pick up dimes.

That said, the whole "Age of Austerity" thing bothers me. It smacks of betlway and ruling class groupthink.

Actually, we have not yet entered an age of austerity, but have only so far been threatened with it. The 2011 budget act was political theater. The actual cuts in the military it threatens are a chimera -- for the reasons outlined in this report. Namely, that government spending actually does produce jobs and that the paychecks that come with these jobs support the economy and the politicians whose positions depend upon that economy.

This report suggests that Austerity -- of the kinds Ireland foolishly opted for and the Greek government is being bullied into -- is a foregone conclusion, which to me seems very, very shortsighted.

Austerity is a political choice, not some foreordained eventuality -- as all the recently bailed-out bankers, politicos, pundits and ideologues want us to believe. That the wind is blowing this way today does not mean it will be blowing that way -- or at all -- tomorrow.

While I support a long-term reduction in both the US military and its mission, to begin cutting anyone's paychecks (or retirement checks, or health benefits) at this time will do nothing but satisfy the holders of US bonds -- and demonstrate the stupidity of reducing consumption in a consumption-based economy that is stuck in a liquidity trap. I simply cannot wrap my mind around the notion of the sort of "expansionary contraction" faux-capitalists want us to engage in, now that they have been made (apparently) solvent on the backs of American workers.

Some random thoughts:

What of the great GOP trilogy "waste, fraud and abuse" ... only applied to military contracting? What can we do about that, and how (much) will it advantageth us?

More along that line: What about saving money by forbidding tax-payer subsidized military retirees from becoming pimps and shills for private contractors? Can we return to the "fade away" model and let them enjoy the dying of their light on a nice golf course somewhere?

Latin America and Africa -- The reports essentially dismissive attitude here suggests to me the dangers of thinking regionally in a globalized political economy. Are we preparing for the last war yet again? The global South is precisely where the hearts and minds ( or, if you prefer resources and refugees) of the future lie.

China is not making this mistake. This part f the report is all the more stunning to me given the fact that the US is the only thoroughly First World economy to border a Third World economy, and a nationstate that is faltering under a combination of a criminal insurgency, overpopulation, resource depletion (oil) and political corruption.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

11:45 PM ET

October 5, 2011

More US Marine graves in Veracruz

Huck, What if the political austerity CNAS Option 4 becomes fact? History tells us that it will be something close, if only in the conceptions and the hearts and minds of the screaming Uber Neo-cons or whatever they will call themselves when the fever curve goes back up.

The draw down will be servere, a la politics of the present, only to become an renewed issue of the 4 year election cycles of the future. Given the US propensity to engage in an expeditionary war every half generation since 1917... no earlier...is it not fore-ordained that we strike south? Certainly cheaper; don't need all that fuel for C-17's.

Now if we can only get the reason for doing it right the first time and make it stick.

 

HUCKLEBERRY

6:09 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Maybe so

If I understand you -- and I might not be -- you are suggesting that any kind of drawdown will become a charge of "hollowing out the military" in a future election cycle, ala 1980?

That is probably true. Of course, the chickenhawk right seems genetically predisposed to screaming this over and over -- whether there has been a thin dime of cuts or not. They have been doing it for three generations now -- since the late 40's.

If the electorate's butter is being threatened, the guns are going to be cut as well. We might not be that smart, but we are self-interested. There will be a BRAC/NIMBY-style reaction when it comes to whatever aerospace contract or military unit is stationed in this or that electoral district. I don't think we are going to allow ourselves to move in the direction of 18th C. Prussia. But then again, I didn't think we could possibly re-elect Bush.

Politically, the smart move will be to axe, trim or relocate the programs and bases in and around the Basin West. Given the water situation, that area is going to experience a decline in population sooner or later anyway. From the left, what have you got to lose by angering the people of Wyoming or Idaho or Nevada? From the right, where are those same people going to go?

However, I fear it is going to be much easier to hammer vet's benefits. And it will be done sneakily. This would be immoral, economically-stupid (remember the benefits, long and short-term, of the GI BIll) as well as dangerous (the Weimar Republic). But I think a political animal like Boehner is going to wrap himself in the flag but work for the interests of GE Aviation before wounded veterans & GSFs. Same goes for a dude like Schumer - it's just that he's going to be wrapped in a treasury note and will be working for Government Sachs.

On Vera Cruz, et al: I've recently spent some time on our southern border, in an HIDTA. Lots of uniforms, even more of guns -- on both sides. I am stunned that there has not been another Ezekiel Hernandez-type incident. The border fence - which I stupidly thought a good idea when it was proposed - is a joke. Where I was (where New Mexico meets Arizona and both of them meet Chihuahua) a favorite tactic is to back a long-bed tow truck up to the tank traps and simply drive the car over them onto the other side.

But to my mind, beginning with the Carter Doctrine, the Persian Gulf has become more the "American Lake" than the Caribbean (including Mexico) ever was, but our fixations there are contradictory (corporate-controllled oil, a Palestine cleansed of Palestinians, Mesopotamian democracy, and, for the a rebuilding of the Temple) in a way they weren't in Smedley Butler's days (keeping the banana in banana republic).

If you aren't angry enough, here's a blast-from-the-past from one of our best and brightest:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/10/why-tom-friedman-should-not-have-any-job.html

Sorry for the bloodpressure spike, but this jackass has won more Pulitzers than our own Herr Ricks...

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

11:59 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Suck. On. This.

Ironically, Mr. Friedman is right (this time). That's the way it went down.

BRAC/NIMBY: Its in full swing already. 2015 maybe the first of the hearings, but all the biggies: civilian, military, political, and local are gearing up. It won't be pretty.

Ezekiels: There are bound to be more of the same or similar flash points. High caliber overshots landing in Laredo and Yuma. Schools and airfields hit; its bound to happen. Rumor in my neighborhood is that the 10th Mountain is going to the South Border sometime soon. Posse comititus be damned.

My own crystal ball: I fear more of the same--foreign policy based on macho Washington leadership, knee jerk reaction, loss of any sense of diplomacy before activation orders of the gunslingers. Wild-ass accusations of gutting the military might of America. A Phoenix-Reagan whipping up the pride of the USA. Total rip of lessons learned.

Hell. Why not Mexico? Its easy!! There will be senoritas throwning cactus flowers at the troops' feet. Great place to have a new conflict!! The troops get to drink tequila in country this time!! Just like the ole days.

I'm barely being sarcastic. And I hope to hell I'm wrong.

 

HUCKLEBERRY

2:49 AM ET

October 7, 2011

But will it work?

I think your crystal ball is right. But will the people fall for such distractions again, absent some sort of domestic terror attack?

I'm just trying to imagine how someone who is 33% underwater on their mortgage, with no hope in sight, is going to respond to more war drums. Then again, wars are a great distraction...

 

KILGORE_NOBIZ

11:25 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Flawed Study

I'll admit I haven't studied this paper too in depth; however on the surface I found a couple of glaring flaws. First the study stresses over and over the need to increase interdependence (jointness) between services, yet each case study advocates cutting over 70% in joint programs. I don't see how you encourage jointness when the majority of your cuts are purple. Next issue, option 2 says cuts in airpower will be mitigated by an enhanced ISR network, while at the same time recommending a $70B cut to the intelligence community, greater than any other line item. Essentially this option proposes twice as much money cut from intel than airpower, yet claims intel will mitigate the airpower cuts. Again, serious lapse in logic. One can't help but wonder if research across line items to be cut lacked a certain amount of coordination.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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