For part of my book, I decided to go back and check the origin of the thought often attributed to Sir Michael Howard, the World War II hero turned military historian, that everyone gets it wrong at the beginning of a war. I was told once at the Army War College that he continued the thought this way: so, the important thing is not to get it too wrong.

Well, it turns out that isn't quite what he said, at least in the article I found, "Military Science in an Age of Peace," published in the RUSI Journal in March 1974. What he said was that everybody gets it wrong so the important thing to do is develop the intellecutal capacity in officers to adjust faster than the other guy. That's quite different.

Anyway, all that mess goes into the epilogue of my book. But in the same article he also has an interesting discussion of how to think about defense acquisition. New weapons and other purchases, he says, grow out of a "triangular dialogue between ... operational requirements, technological feasibility and financial capability." He continues:

In discerning operational requirements the real conceptual difficulties of military science occur. If there is not rigorous thinking at this level, neither technology nor money can help. With inadequate thinking about operational requirements, the best technology and the biggest budget in the world will only produce vast quantities of obsolete equipment; bigger and better resources for the wrong war. Indeed, it can sometimes be suggested . . . that ample resources can be positively bad for the military because this enables them to shelve the really vital question: what do we really need and why?

The defense budget is gonna go waaaay down, so might as well groove on the vibe, as it were.

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EXPLORE:ECONOMICS, MILITARY
 

TUHUGHES

11:50 AM ET

September 12, 2011

Triangular Dialogue

His description echoes (or perhaps is the source of) the project management triangle: "Good, Fast, or Cheap...Pick Two." Whenever budgets go down, it is always worth asking which of the other two sides leadership wants to sacrifice. In the defense force arena, it is probably better thought of: Capable, Available Quickly, or Cheap...Choose Two, which seems to be what Sir Howard had in mind.

 

JPWREL

4:12 PM ET

September 12, 2011

RICHARD EARLEY writes: "But

RICHARD EARLEY writes: "But he is admirable for his honesty, rare in British historians, over two vital matters." Yes, your quite right, too bad all historians don't follow the American lead in historical integrity such as John Toland, Stephen Ambrose and a host of others. No doubt, a lot of junk has been written my British authors, but an ocean of crap produced by Americans has more than matched it.

Good history writing is not a national sport. It is an effort of intense research and honest reflection upon your subject matter. Some American writers have produced outstanding works, one of them comments regularly on Tom’s site (Eric Hammel). However, sadly many of them are less interested in good research and writing and far more interested in national self-congratulatory triumphalism.

 

TJ LUCIER

9:34 PM ET

September 12, 2011

The edition ofMilitary history is always written by the victors!

And the voices of the vanquished are never heard until long after the history books have been written! Former military members of the Third Reich didn't come out of the "history closet" to give their version of what happened in WWII until the late '60s and early '70s! Lesson learned: Don't believe everything you read in history books written by so-called authoritative military history experts!

 

TJ LUCIER

9:36 PM ET

September 12, 2011

Most military history books are written by the victors!

And the voices of the vanquished are never heard until long after the history books have been written! Former military members of the Third Reich didn't come out of the "history closet," to give their version of what happened in WWII, until the late '60s and early '70s! Lesson learned: Don't believe everything you read in history books written by so-called authoritative military history experts!

 

STEVE358

12:03 PM ET

September 12, 2011

Implementation

The classic public administration work is "Implementation," by Pressman and Wildavsky.

Here, they describe the saga of unsuccessful efforts to rebuild Watts after the riots. Full faith and credit of the Great Society, full support for the goal, no resource limitations. So, Why did it fail (utterly and completely)?

For all of the same organizational and operational reasons why so many great public and organizational initiatives (and COIN, etc...) go awry, and, why, even those that succeed often actually did so by almost dumb luck (Hitler holding back the panzers on D-Day).

Implementation is the hardest work and, at its core, requires systematic understandings of organizational, structural, staffing/budget, and operational sciences applied to clearly defined problems with the understanding that the bigger the problem the more likely it is to be a wicked one (constantly changing, ill-defined, lacking in proportionate resources).

In sum: If it was easy, it would have been solved a long time ago, and, therefore, not before us today.

I had the good fortune to be a tank commander before I went to graduate school in public administration/policy. From that, I know, as is mirrored in our Afghan experience, that it is easy to pop caps to overcome what Small Wars' Bob Haddick describes as "brittle dictatorships" (Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya), but very difficult addressing what comes next (the post-conflict period).

Doing so with scarce budgets might, perhaps, compel a level of ingenuity that, in part, avoids the destructive pitfalls and traps of using money as a weapon, or putting troops on the ground that, according to Rory Stewart, exacerbate opposition.

Facing problems with or without too much money and resources changes the approaches to the problem, but does not, of itself, preclude solutions.

 

STEVE358

12:32 PM ET

September 12, 2011

PS

A primary planning dilemma: the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, so why are our roads designed so tortuously that it takes 160 miles of road to connect a 100 mile distance between point A and B.

First, the landscape is not flat, nor empty.

Since it costs far more to build a bridge than to pave on open hard surface, it is cheaper to build the bridge at the narrowest point in the river, and to avoid unstable terrain along the way.

Since the points to be connected include a town far to the North and another far to the south, the effective linkages between the two points are not on the hypothetical straight-line.

Since one jurisdiction is willing or able to exercise more influence (including as a funding source, or by pre-existing rights of way), the hypothetical straight line shifts accordingly.

Second, taking into account all these practical and operational conditions are project or activity specific, and many of the unknowns can not be known until an actual goal or purpose is defined that warrants the analysis.

Our recent "military" engagements have, in effect, become highly complex and expensive public administration/public policy/service delivery activities, leaving DoD, Big Army and DoS to stumble around a landscape that it they are ill-suited for, and, based on recent records, has not done well with.

This budget debacle raises the basic organizational questions that may, in the end, prove very useful.

Is it desirable to, by mission creep, to have these agencies continue to serve not as the World's Policeman, but as its public works, community planning and public services department?

Is this implicit role sustainable and productive?

 

VIC LESPERANCE

12:45 PM ET

September 12, 2011

Thinking About Defense Procurement

At the conceptual stage of any project, a clear description of the problem and the solution afforded by the design are critical. This is what needs to be right. In our way of designing and procuring weapons, at what point are we "locked in"? Do we get a chance to reconsider?

This reconsideration is going to forced on many decision makers and program managers. Can the leaders of the F-35 program, for instance, still address the basic questions posed at the inception of the program? Will they be forced to perform this type of rigorous examination of the premises that started this particular platform?

My guess is that this whole debt crisis induced, justification process for weapons systems is going to be very messy with many valid programs squashed while white elephants like the F-35 in a pilotless world continue because they have become too big to fail.

Nice way to do business, huh?

 

HUNTER

8:55 PM ET

September 12, 2011

I found your problem

It's right here....what do ya mean you can't find it.

http://www.soldiergeek.com/display/ShowImage?imageUrl=/picture/weapon%20system%20life%20cylce.jpg?pictureId=10212514&asGalleryImage=true&__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1309136951241

 

HUNTER

8:55 PM ET

September 12, 2011

I found your problem

It's right here....what do ya mean you can't find it. (add the normal prefix)

.soldiergeek.com/display/ShowImage?imageUrl=/picture/weapon%20system%20life%20cylce.jpg?pictureId=10212514&asGalleryImage=true&__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1309136951241

 

SOLDIERSDIARY

2:41 PM ET

September 12, 2011

adjusting in planning

one aspect I always try to push is to always re-look facts and assumptions int he planning process. Too often in MDMP/JOPP, the facts and assumptions are done in the intial Mission Analysis, then never looked at again. Assumptions when shown not to be true should in theory alter the entire plan (as you use assumptions to continue planning and to build your COA). Often, we stick to what we first developed and disregard anything that alters how we came to our conclusion.

 

KUNINO

3:56 PM ET

September 12, 2011

A four-sided triangle

Missing from the Howard list: vigorous hucksterism, usually dressed up in patriotic language, and forwarded by recently retired military officers extremely grateful for the manufacturer's buck.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

7:41 PM ET

September 12, 2011

...capacity in officers to adjust faster than the other guy.

Anyone else think 'OODA Loop' there? And how many stars did the USAF guy who thought up 'ooda' win? What would he have thought about our five year task force ramp-up response to muj mine warfare and TBI injuries?

Consider Stallone's oft-ignored Rambo retort, to the false promise of advanced technical/systems lethality: (sic) 'I always thought that the mind was the best weapon'.

 

PEN DRAGON

10:23 PM ET

September 12, 2011

The Marines

I was starting to feel neglected during the little Army/Air Force scrap, but now I'm going to take full advantage of this chance to rag on my own sad little branch of the "service."
For decades, the Marines' (alleged) ability to do more with less was one of its most vaunted qualities. Many boosters (including, if memory serves our own Tom Ricks, in his late-90s book Making the Corps) lauded the Corps' frugality and leanness.
The "War on Terror" of course caused Congress to lavish all sorts of ridiculous favors on the entire military, the result being that by 2008, pre-deployment training for Marines was based in a three-star hotel on Camp Pendleton. We also got a bunch of electronic gear that no one knew how to use, and which was so expensive and delicate that most of the time no one even wanted to touch it.
Eventually we moved to a beer can in the desert, but it had wi-fi and about 50 power outlets. Even on our FOB in Iraq we had 24-hour Internet access, a full gym and mostly-functional air conditioning in every building. If that's the "frugal" branch's idea of roughing it, I shudder to think what accomodations the Army and Air Force had.

 

CHARLES IN AMERICA

3:46 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Frugality, what's that?

We have been anything but frugal..and it goes way beyond the wallet. There's been so many scared commanders and senior leaders since 2001 that they've heaped all sorts of things onto us in uniform.
Look at the combat action badge...was a good thought and probably well-intentioned, but it's complete garbage. I think the CIB is garbage too. Your campaign ribbons should speak for your experiences, and just leave it at that. But, in the Army, non-infantry was jealous and people felt they were slighted, so boom we get the CAB. That wasn't good enough, now BCTs issue blanket CIB/CAB citations the first time mortars land in the BCT footprint.
I've slept in the dirt enough times while deployed - so I know it still happens, but yes, the conditions are generally not austered and that goes for all service branches.

Don't worry though, our politicians and generals will essentially look at us soon enough and say, "you spent too much money" and our benefits, salaries, and job security will soon enough disappear. It will be conveniently ignored that the money was forced from higher, with meetings held, catalogs given out, and guidance given to "spend or else".

Those "ACOGs & PEQ15s" will come with more than just a dollar price pretty soon.

The new DOD directive about disclosing your criminal convictions and similar issues are starting to come out. We'll be purging the ranks very soon. There won't be severance packages and early outs, people are just going to get letters saying goodbye.

So, as we crunch the numbers and figure out how many IFVs, Predators, Journals and the like we can do without, we'll also be purging people from the system and that will be the most difficult thing for us to replace when things get bad once again. Given the economy, the people that do get purged are probably going to hold a grudge for quite a long time. There will be many, many, many people that leave the military on not so great terms and they will likely be pretty bitter or at least become very disinterested in all things military. That's going to trickle down to vendors, local military communities, online gear shops like the now famous Tactical Tailor, and even to websites like this one.

The repurcussions are going to be severe and far reaching; all because the bean counters decided to protect the "cheap" leg of their three-legged stool.

 

CHARLES IN AMERICA

3:33 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Where is that article?

Would like to know if it's possible to get full text of the article Mr. Ricks speaks of, "Military Science in an age of Peace".

Seems as though there's some good wisdom there.

 

TERENCE

3:27 AM ET

October 8, 2011

Implementation is the hardest

Implementation is the hardest work and, at its core, requires systematic understandings of organizational, structural, staffing/budget, and operational sciences applied to clearly defined problems with the diyhomeideas understanding that the bigger the problem the more likely it is to be a wicked one.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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