From the no-brainer department: French government is arming the Libyan rebels

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Thursday, June 30, 2011 - 11:13 AM Share

This should have been step one. Basic rule here: Indirect action is better than direct. Before you commit your own military forces, help the locals help themselves. This also helps with extracting yourself: You win when the locals can defend themselves.

Btw, this apparently is one reason the rebels have been doing better in western Libya lately.

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TYRTAIOS

4:36 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Step one or misstep?

Tom, I think you skipped a couple of steps in your hurry to cry havoc and unleash the Frogs of war. . .Step one should be knowing what the end state will be.

These French air drops may very well become a problem later by having arms scattered all over the place, to include in the hands of al-Qa'idah in the Maghreb and will only exacerbate the problem should civil war break-out, which is a real possible scenario after crazy Omar exits.

JPWREL

5:10 PM ET

June 30, 2011

TYRTAIOS argument makes a

TYRTAIOS argument makes a great deal of sense. It is rather amazing that Europeans often express dissatisfaction with an unfortunate tendency in American policymaking to often give little thought to the end state consequences. Yet in the matter of Libya the Europeans seem to be doing precisely that.

The reality is that sophisticated weapons distributed to shadowy groups without the capacity to reacquire those weapons risks a potential blow back of unpleasant proportions. During World War One it was discussed supplying arms to the Maasai of southwest Kenya to help fight the superb von Lettow-Vorbeck’s and his Askaris. It all sounded like a grand idea until someone mused about how they would go about collecting those arms once the war had ended.

Side note: von Lettow-Vorbeck who conducted a brilliant campaign in East Africa (1914-1918) against great odds was so highly regarded by Jan Smuts his primary opponent and the British officers serving against him that when it was discovered that later in life he was living in poverty (he hated Hitler and the Nazi's) in Germany they put together a large fund to enable the great General to enjoy a pension.

We don't live in a world like that anymore, that's for sure.

BEARCAT

4:43 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Blowback Rule, No Brainer

"Basic rule here: Indirect action is better than direct. Before you commit your own military forces, help the locals help themselves. This also helps with extracting yourself: You win when the locals can defend themselves."

Isn't this where the Taliban came from? Our buddies in ISI and CIA invented them?

I'd probably consider what our objective, goal, endstate is? Just the fact that somebody is willing to fight for themselves for there own ends is a pretty weak reason to back them?!??!

Some of the same guys we were fighting against in Iraq are our Allies, Co-belligerents, and clients in Libya.

"O brave new world! That has such people in it!”

TOM RICKS

4:48 PM ET

June 30, 2011

End state nonsense

I think the desire for a knowable end state is nice, but unreachable.
Best,
Tom

JPWREL

5:15 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Tom’s right, nobody can

Tom’s right, nobody can predict an end state situation any better than they can predicting next month’s stock market. How about instead recognition of the potential consequences of our actions and what risks those might entail and whether it’s worth ‘The Gamble’?

TYRTAIOS

5:42 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Not so nonsensical - just some prudence

Yes, I would concede the end state for Libya may very well be unreachable at this time, but when Jolly, excuse me, I mean to say Jaalle Siyaad was toppled and civil war broke-out in Somalia, surely that scenario is fresh enough for a lesson to be heeded?

But hey, like I've said, I can be player, and although I advise against the U.S. doing so, let's hope the French, from their former Chadian military adversarial role against Kadaffi, and more recent warm fuzzy relationship with him, have some idea who the actual end user is by having knowledgeable folks on the ground at these drops?

Incidentally, "Le Figaro" has a pretty good analysis on what's going on with these drops; someone may have slipped them some classified information?

Viva la morte. . .Viva la guerre!

BADDOGGY

3:35 AM ET

July 2, 2011

Knock knock

I noted on the President's most recent visit to Europe, he seemed to be saying Omar has to go. . .ok, swell, I agree, we've come too far to leave him upright at this point. However, people ought to think about the fact that by adopting the course of action we did, basing it on what seems to be hope and emotion, all we may have done is prolong the conflict, likely having increased the number of casualties in the long run. This is not a broken toy or handmade jewelry to be thrown away.

BEARCAT

6:40 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Strategic Ambulance Chasing

This is not a chicken or egg question.

We didn't go out and foment revolution in Libya because is supported some strategic goal of US. The revolution happened and we decided it was some fantastic opportunity that was just too good to miss. Surely there has to be some strategic goal (or a pony?) in there somewhere? Libya is opportunism pure and simple.

Pretty short sighted. At the end of the day, they are going to want a stability force for Libya.

RYDDLE

7:22 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Libya

The reasons for the Libya intervention are varied. They go from "protecting" the oil there to the moral obligation to prevent a human massacre.
As with most actions, it should be done with a goal in mind. However, it should not be expected to reach it exactly as planned - a certain flexibility in the plan must exist. In the case of Libya, the old adage applies: "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy". It has probable taken more resources and time than it was ever expected.
Regardless, I think the decision to give arms to the rebels is the correct one - just that it must be done with care. To echo Bearcat, we don't want another Mujahideen-turned-Taliban in Libya.

TYRTAIOS

10:16 PM ET

June 30, 2011

What battle plan?

What battle plan? Additionally, the reasons weren't varied, they were contradictory from the moment the uncovered western female Hillary Clinton said that it was the U. S. of A's policy that Kaddafi should be removed from day one, which seemed to gainsay her boss's statement that we were going to protect Libyan citizens in a couple of littoral towns.

So which was it? I noted on the President's most recent visit to Europe, he seemed to be saying Omar has to go. . .ok, swell, I agree, we've come too far to leave him upright at this point.

However, people ought to think about the fact that by adopting the course of action we did, basing it on what seems to be hope and emotion, all we may have done is prolong the conflict, likely having increased the number of casualties in the long run. . .something that will never be factored in?

RVN SF VET

9:49 PM ET

June 30, 2011

MISSING THE POINT!

Who is the woman in the photograph and where can I sign-up to fight alongside her? She looks very French - but that's OK with me in this one instance. Oh, well, two instances since there is Catherine too.

Fight? Heck, coffee is OK!

TYRTAIOS

10:23 PM ET

June 30, 2011

It looks like Audrey Tautou

It looks like Audrey Tautou (the Di Vinci Code) perhaps? My wife's out of town or I'd ask her on your behalf, since I know it's good afternoon you have on your mind, and not good night!

JPWREL

10:47 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Boys boys! That's Sarkozy's

Boys boys! That's Sarkozy's dishy wife Carla Bruni - I think?

Tom, say its so, I need validation to make up for yesterday's mis-identifying the Royal Irish Rifles for some Aussie Diggers.

TYRTAIOS, shame on you for not recognizing this delightful French face.

FG42

10:48 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Wait, you don't have to go to

Wait, you don't have to go to France to find a woman to fight alongside. The Army now has deployed SF women. Yes, it's true. These women are part of SOCOM and have gone through very selective special training. Check out this URL. There's a picture of one of them, packing the same weapons and gear as those huge, bearded SF types.

http://www.military.com/news/article/female-special-operators-now-in-combat.html?ESRC=eb.nl

TYRTAIOS

10:59 PM ET

June 30, 2011

JPWREL, I know that's Sarco's

JPWREL, I know that's Sarco's wife (who's pregnant). I thought I'd give someone a chance to smack me down, for all my ranting on the subject of Libya today. . .I didn't expect you however : )

GOLD STAR FATHER

12:03 AM ET

July 1, 2011

Carla

She is more Italian, no? T: never give up the rant.

TOM RICKS

12:32 PM ET

July 1, 2011

Fun 4 U

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/05/27/skinny_dipping_last_weekend_with_carla_bruni

JPWREL

1:04 PM ET