Thursday, June 23, 2011 - 5:29 PM

By Nora Bensahel
Best Defense bureau of presidential speech analysis
Late Wednesday afternoon, I headed over to the White House to attend a background session about President Obama's Afghanistan speech. But when I watched the speech a few hours later, I wondered if I had somehow had wandered into the wrong briefing room.
I was promised by senior administration officials that the speech would provide at least some strategic rationale for withdrawing 10,000 U.S. troops by the end of 2011 and 23,000 more troops by September 2012. They argued that the concept of a distinct fighting season is not entirely right, and so withdrawing forces next summer would not affect military operations significantly. They argued that the timing of the withdrawal was determined primarily by U.S. rotational requirements, that the mission will remain unchanged, and that General John Allen (who could replace General Petraeus as early as next month) will be have complete flexibility to determine how and where the remaining 68,000 troops will be used. And they emphasized that the U.S. government is committed to establishing an enduring strategic partnership with Afghanistan after 2014 that would likely include a U.S. military presence in addition to civilian assistance.
I was not convinced by many of these arguments. Strategic objectives should drive withdrawal timetables and not rotational requirements. These officials underestimate the risks that this timetable poses for military operations, and should openly acknowledge that the mission will inevitably change away from counterinsurgency towards counterterrorism. Still, at least these are arguments that can be debated.
The speech I heard Wednesday night, however, was a political speech that addressed none of these issues. By my count, only a third of an already-short speech discussed the future U.S. role in Afghanistan, and it provided no strategic rationale. Instead, its overwhelming message was that the war in Afghanistan is basically over and that the United States is simply winding down an already successful mission. The last half of his speech mentioned Libya, the Arab Spring, clean energy, and "nation building here at home" - the clearest possible signal that Afghanistan is no longer a policy priority.
This may be an appealing message for the majority of Americans who believe that U.S. troops should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. But it does not explain why 68,000 U.S. troops will remain in Afghanistan after next September or why the United States would benefit from a long-term strategic partnership. Instead, it builds unrealistic expectations that the war in Afghanistan is on a stable path towards success - and those expectations will be soon be shattered by the casualties that will inevitably occur as military operations continue.
Many Americans may be happy with the speech I heard. But they really needed to hear the speech I was promised.
Nora Bensahel is a senior fellow and deputy director of studies at CNAS.
WHY IS A CONTINUING PRESENCE IN OUR NATIONAL INTEREST?
Why should we look to maintaining a presence in Afghanistan or Pakistan and Iraq for that matter? What will that continuing presence ensure and what will it prevent? Surely small numbers of troops keep us hostage to events on the ground in these countries.
Wouldn't it be great to sit back and make decisions based upon our current and future national interests instead of being dragged-down by injudicious commitments made under different circumstances?
I long for the day when we can tell the Pakistanis to go screw themselves and to tell Karzai to kiss our collective posterior. I would welcome the Chinese developing a naval base in Pakistan and completing the Karakoram Highway from Western China to the port of Gwadar. Let them bring stability and prosperity to that area. A recent Pew survey says that 82% of Pakistani military officers think that we are a greater threat to Pakistan than India. Good, let's remove the threat of our money. Pakistan wants to buy some Chinese jets - good. I don't care what India shoots down.
It is difficult for me to see why ADM Mullen is concerned that 10,000 troops is too fast, but 5,000 is OK. What would be OK is to pull everybody out now and if they harbor any more terrorists - blow them away without regard to collateral damage. We would need to make this crystal clear to the remnants of the Afghan government and any provincial governors. It is difficult for me to understand why the talking heads think that we need a continuing presence in Pakistan. What positive effect have we had to date?
We need to keep our Pakistan targeting list current and be prepared to blow away as much of their nuclear capability as possible at a moments notice. I'm sure that India would be happy to take care of the remainder.
Good military strategy or policy as it were, ain’t much good if it can't buttress and maintain political support.
But hey, cheer up, things could get worse, or better depending on how you look at it: our remaining coalition partners might decide to speed-up their withdrawal now that the news is out, beating us to the airport. . .thereby causing Obama no other choice but to speed it up further. . .as out in 2013?
You’re what this thing’s all about.
"A final scene has Hamchunk with Wayne on the beach at sunset, with the kid asking Wayne “what will happen to me now?” Wayne gives the kid Petersen’s Green Beret, saying, “You let me worry about that, Green Beret. You’re what this thing’s all about.” The two walk off together along the beach, hand-in-hand."
http://www.pophistorydig.com/?tag=john-wayne-green-berets
You will go back to your feudal village where you will memorize passages from the Koran, grow poppies, treasure your AK-47, and beat your wife. I cannot change centuries of tradition and ignorance, but I can promise you one thing little Afghan. If you ever harbor and give safe haven to terrorists again, I will bomb the shit out of you and could care less about collateral damage.
RVN SF Vet...little Afghan says, "Hey, could care less about collateral damage wasn't in the COIN Manual! Maybe it was on the little coins that the American generals gave me."
Sniff, Sniff, I almost hurled at that scene, but voided the phlegm from my pie hole instead. It seems the Duke might have shot that scene from His Charlie Papa (on the beachfront in the Oscar Charlie). The Sun Also rises o'er the South China Sea, yet sets under the Annamite Cordillera. Sheesh...Could they not afford to shoot on the beach in N.C. (Kitty Hawk)? Would the quality of the Dukester's tee many Martoonies have suffered as a consequence?
Funny! I live behind the Orange Curtain, not too far from El Toro and Camp Talega...the Duke lives on here...SNA is named after him.
Quang:
I know, I've lived in RSM since 87. I'm also aware of Wayne's popularity, and support for HUAC's actions, post war. He was not remembered fondly by WWII veterans, especially in light of his movies and posturing, which contrasted negatively with their service. Moreover many Hollywood actors joined the services and experienced active combat, as did many of the post war GI's who became famous film personalities. He had a few run in's with veterans who decried his non-participation. He was given a deferral rating of 3-A for family dependency (Wayne was 34 and had 4 children at the time), and this was later changed in 1944 to 2-A deferral based on national interest. Many volunteers were over 34 and had children, so that was not a show stopper. The studio did not want to lose him, since he was a a walking gold mine.
He indeed inspired many a youth to join the services in order to "get Some!", but I, at the time, thought even then that he was over the top; though I did like, and was motivated by war flicks. Gee, those intolerant WWII vets; imagine that they had the unmitigated gall to cast aspersions on the patriotic icon of the time. I suppose they wanted him to walk it like he talked it...How primitive! Perhaps a little war story would be instructive.
Coming back from an operation Northwest of Hue, we were assigned to be the palace Guards for the Phu Bai Base. At night, a wooden whitewashed screen would be erected in an open area, so movies could be watched. The audience consisted of Battalion members, as well of the usual assortment Remfish pogues. The projectionist began a screening of the TV series "Combat." After a few seconds, the animals became agitated an began yelling, advising the projectionist to reconsider his choice, and hurling a time-on-target fusillade of rocks at the screen. The projectionist then played an episode of Gunsmoke, or Dragnet (totally acceptable fare). Another time, a similar demonstration occurred, which allowed for the showing of What's New Pussycat; now that's a real flick for grunts.
The Dukester represented, and was probably a touchstone for the Neocon apparatchiks, who presently infect the governmental organs of the US. They exhort others (less connected), to do what they would never consider doing themselves, nor their deplorable ilk, are conned and influenced to do, in the name of defending the US. Hey, if you believe you're defending the US of A, go for it; it's a free country.This is just my opinion, of course, and a minority one at that, seeing that the exceptionalism cocoon requires one to be not too discriminating with the facts.
Oh, BTW, Quang, did you fly out of Lonesome Dove?
the last para. should have read (new sentence) These less connected are conned...etc.
My bad, My bad, my Maximus Bad!
You're talking about the wrong John Wayne!! Guess we're not in Iowa anymore Michelle.
Struela - I did fly out of Lonesome Dove in Feb 1991 and
have some cool photos...btw, one of my my late father's callsigns was "Rio Bravo," given the time he spent in Texas in the late 1950s while learning to fly with the USAF and his propensity for fistfights...
RVN.
I have often wondered what it felt like for the three Marines left behind at Koh Tang in 1975, to be the last Americans killed in action in a pointless war. Or for the first American to be killed in a pointless war.
Now I reckon all our guys in Afghanistan and Iraq are looking at each other wondering, "Is he going to be the last guy to get killed here before we leave. Or am I?"
I am sick of the incompetence, lies, paranoia, jingoism, xenopohobia and blustering back home. Grateful I am an expat.
wander through a lot of issues.
Fighting season: some commentators said it was from opium harvesting in Spring to Marijuana harvesting in Fall.
McCreary says the figures show no lapses or delays in recent times---as much activity in February as in June. Where's the seasonality?
In Iraq, the extension argument is that they have to let us know yesterday to stop withdrawals in December---a sixth month rotational notice?
Actually, it has taken quite every bit of several years to advance prep that departure.
On to MV's issue: What if there is no strategic purpose (Nora's reference) and you are the last casualty?
How is all this going to alter EVERYTHING?
Just Calling It Strategy Does Not Make It Strategy
Why does Ms Bensahel bother to write this all about "Looking For Mr.Good Strategic Objective" w/o giving us a clue what she thinks those strategic objectives are? Why assume there is some grand strategic objective with the lever in Afghanistan?
These "strategists" spend most of their time talking about endstrength, BOG, or force package, or friendly order of battle, not much time talking about end state. What is the endstate in Afghanistan? When is the endstate? Getting our troops out of the box and getting ready for the next contingency is a real, no kidding strategic objective.
Seth Jones was an the radio a couple of days ago, he also just talked about troop strength, nothing about endstate or real objs. He literally referred to 3 different troop strength options (go big including conventional forces, go small w SOF, hybrid) as 3 COAs w/o saying anything about their purposes or (what IS behind door number 3?) how the endstate or timeline might vary with the different options (like in a real COA). The only guy who mentioned endstate was some USAR Guy who phoned in just back from Afghanistan.
If Bensahel doesn't like the briefers and speechwriters at the White House, perhaps he should apply for a job there. Or cast a vote in the 2012 presidential election. Saying "I think I heard a promise for a speech different from the speech I think I heard" is thin gruel and a rather vapid base for criticism.
For a more nuanced and substantial view of the speech go here: http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/06/presidents-speech-on-afghanistan.html
I know this will inspire endless obnoxious discussion...but.
You contend:
"By now it should be clear that doesn't matter, since the endlessly expensive and militarily attenuating strategy of "fighting them over there" -- which put our national foot into Osama's bear-trap -- is a dismal failure."
Although I hate the Bush-speak (and admin that used that speak) one can't help but argue that the "fighting them over there" so called strategy has, empirically, worked. There's been about only 3 noteworthy attempts since 9-11 which we know about. Shoe Bomber, Crotch bomber, and Printer bombers. All of them were arguably caught completely by accident, or the efforts of civilians along the way - so not much credit goes to the federal government for protecting us.
But we don't know about the attempts that were quelled (that will forever remain in secrecy), nor do we know what nascent plans might have been in the mix - if we weren't in their face fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps the OBL files on those hard drives tells much of the story (but again we'll never know). As in the old maxim there is merit in grabbing a guy by the belt and beating the shit out of them so they can't think of the next planned attack of their own.
(The sad part is that strategery [sic] works both ways).
By in large the prevalent judgments of current intelligences estimates are pretty much consistent with assessments of global terrorist threats by our allies and independent terrorism experts, who generally all agree that our increased involvement abroad is actually fueling Islamic radicalism.
More than likely our focus on better horizontal information sharing and training among domestic state, federal, and international law enforcement agencies has shrunk the security envelope that the 9/11 terrorists once had to operate in, is the primary contributer to your judgment that fighting them over there has kept them from attacking us here on U.S. soil, i.e. yesterday's arrest in Seattle.
The attacks were caused by our previous interventions
at some point, Hunter, we need to break the cycle. Maintaining a constant state of war and hyper vigilance is not healthy from an economic or political standpoint.
OBL was a villain, a murderer, and an opportunist as we saw with his championing the Palestinians, but not a liar. As Michael Scheuer and others have stressed time and again, read what he had to say. OBL's primary grievance and original recruiting tool, before we began the war, was our presence in the region and our support of local dictators, which latter was ongoing policy until recently. OBL and his Islamist friends were assisted mightily by US interventions during the 1980s and 1990s. Our victories weren't taken as evidence of the superiority of American liberalism, so much as sign that God can use any tool to further his ends. Our belief that helping these people would bring them to our side is as flawed a notion as thinking our gadgets would turn them all into liberal democrats. They'll take the help, the cash, and the gadgets and do their own thing. Of course, there will always be a minority of urban technocrats and westernized young people. But we shouldn't take their existence as evidence of any larger social realities.
Now, having, decided that we are friends with whatever democracy or junta has taken the place of the Mubaraks of the world, we continue our support and intervention in the region. I have little doubt that new regimes will prove equally oppressive and resented, and we, as their backers, will share in the hate. The reason being the ME, like other places, suffers under its own social contradictions that will only be resolved by force.
I understand the primary argument for ongoing intervention is oil and stability. But the oil trade would continue no matter who is running the show. The ME is not self sufficient, they need to sell their oil. In any event, let the Western Europeans, Chinese and Japanese worry about ME oil.
Jane Harmon, whatever one feels about her, did make a good point. We have no coherent narrative or strategy. I'd say we do have a narrative, an incoherent, contradictory narrative, informing our strategy, which reflects the messy nature of American politics and self-image. We need a new narrative/strategy, our old one ain't working.
Obama, in his speech on Afghanistan, never mentioned the most important factor in our continued presence in that "graveyard of empires" -- The Narcosaurus.
It is something never openly discussed in Wall Street bank board rooms or the network news rooms of the mainstream media.
Certainly never before the American people.
But it is one of the central driving factors of our imperial foreign policy with the Third World, and has been for decades.
Last week we observed the 40th anniversary of the beginning of Richard Nixon's War on Drugs upon the American people.
When will we observe the commencement of the covert War for Drugs, which has lasted over sixty years, and whose massive institutional corruption, money-laundering, and military interventions have fueled the military-industrial complex and the National Security State?
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/742...
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