Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

By Anna Coll
Best Defense bureau of frenemy relations

This past Monday, SAIS and the Middle East Institute hosted the Washington Post's Karen DeYoung, RAND's Arturo Munoz, and the Atlantic Council's Shuja Nawaz for a timely panel on the intelligence service that everyone loves to hate, Pakistan's ISI. From the outset, moderator Walter Andersen and the panelists confessed that the panel's title "Inside Pakistan's ISI" was misleading, correctly pointing out that any attempt to dissect an intelligence service from the outside is at best an extremely difficult task, let alone a "Janus-faced" one, as Andersen himself noted. The panelists nonetheless raised some interesting issues:

  1. On the question of how much Pakistani military leadership knew about bin Laden's whereabouts, DeYoung described that both ISI head Pasha and Chief of the Army Staff Kayani don't appear to have known very much at all: voice analyses of their initial reactions to bin Laden's death reveal "genuine surprise" on their parts. Either that or their skills at duping foreign authorities have become remarkably sophisticated.
  2. Recent incidents in which IED facilities were abandoned shortly after the U.S. informed the Pakistanis of the facilities' locations suggest the existence of rogue elements or individuals within the ISI, but the panelists said this does not mean the ISI itself has gone rogue.
  3. The ISI's role is two-fold, said Nawaz: to control the domestic situation and penetrate neighboring countries. While it tends to do the latter quite well, the ISI's dismal record in terms of predicting domestic election results (Nawaz described the agency as always being "180 degrees off-target") is just one indicator that the ISI has a long way to go on the former. The diffusion of new technologies including mobile phones and the Internet will only magnify the difficulty of controlling information flows domestically, Nawaz reminded the audience.
  4. Nawaz offered interesting insight into the significance of the agency as a professional stepping stone. He described that while the ISI was traditionally seen as the "backwater for appointments" with the exception of those at the highest echelons, now some of the key Corps Commanders in the Pakistani army are those who held the position of Major General within the ISI. Service in the ISI is thus "not a dead end anymore," but rather becoming a necessary rung on the professional ladder for members of the Pakistani military.

Wikimedia Commons

 

KUNINO

5:15 PM ET

June 16, 2011

Have the Pakistani military been US whipping boys?

The more US instrumentalities can convince the nation that things are going wrong because the Pakistani military is messing things up or actively plotting against US plans and actions, the less reason there has been to examine closely US performance in the Afghanistan-Pakistan targetting. Possibly we've been too trusting of all those claims that the Pakistani army have been bad boys crippling what otherwise might be, would be brilliantly successful strategy and execution.

 

CARL

7:43 PM ET

June 16, 2011

That makes me feel a lot

That makes me feel a lot better. The voice analysis indicates they really didn't know. If ever there was a solid basis upon which to found policy it is voice analysis. It beats evidence, especially that which is unpleasant to see, every time.

The panelists further conclude that the ISI is still ok, just parts of it are not. I am a simple flyover person but it seems to me that unless you know which parts are ok and which are not, wouldn't it be wise to treat the whole organization as not ok? After all, one of the panelist himself said you can't really know what is happening inside.

Mr. Kunino: Maybe we have been too trusting of claims that the Pak Army/ISI are perfidious, but it appears that has not resulted in much besides possible hurt feelings. They still get there checks and the inside the beltway crowd still says the same thing they've been saying for a decade, we can trust them and maybe in just a little while they'll turn around.

There are some certainties in life I suppose, the sun comes up in the east, the Indians won't win the World Series and our educated at the best schools betters inside the beltway can always be had by the General sahibs in Pindi.

 

MARTY MARTEL

9:35 AM ET

June 17, 2011

U. S. deserves to be duped by Pakistan

The bigger story that these panel members will miss is the staunch defense of Pakistan’s duplicity in Afghanistan and shelter of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan as well as Pakistan rounding up CIA informants by Defense Secretary Gates in US Senate under the garb of ‘deficit of trust’ between US and Pakistan.

Gates has known all along about Pakistani government/Army/ISI harboring Afghan Taliban since 2001 but has refused to act on it while allowing those Pakistan-based Taliban members to kill US/NATO troops day in and day out since then.

Thus American defense secretary is responsible for continuing deaths of his own troops even if indirectly.

Adm Mullen had following to say about America’s primary ally in its fight against terrorism, to the foreign news media on 1/13/2011: “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it [Pakistan] is the epicenter of terrorism in the world right now. It is absolutely critical that the safe havens in Pakistan get shut down. We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without that. It’s not just Haqqani Network anymore, or Al Qaeda or TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), the Afghan Taliban, or LeT (Lashkar-e-Tayyeba), it’s all of them working together.”

And previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly sponsoring four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

However US has been deliberately ignoring Taliban’s Pakistani connections in fueling and sustaining Afghan insurgency as reported by Matt Waldman in ‘The sun in the sky‘ on 6/13/2010, corroborated by WikiLeaks leaks on 7/25/2010 and then further corroborated by Chris Alexander, Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan from 2005 until 2009 in his article on 7/30/2010 titled ‘The huge scale of Pakistan‘s complicity‘.

American soldiers are dieing in Afghanistan because of their own government’s misguided policies. For deliberately ignoring Taliban’s Pakistani connections, US deserves to be duped by Pakistan.

 

FG42

9:09 PM ET

June 17, 2011

Regarding our relationship

Regarding our relationship with Pakistan, it's "realpolitik":

1. The US has working relationships with other countries that don't necessarily share the same interests as we do all the time. ....but we need them. For example, Saudi Arabia, which provides our oil but finances but finances Muslim fundamentalists. France is another good example; they're frequently at odds with our foreign policy, but we need them (for the wine?).

2. Pakistan and the US don't share the same vision concerning Afghanistan. The US is fixated on fighting the Taliban (Pashtuns) in Afghanistan, and we want Pakistan to drop everything and focus on that. Pakistan is fixated on competing with India for the future control of Afghanistan, and the Indians are cultivating the Tajiks while Pakistan is relying on its Pashtun brethen, the Taliban. So Pakistan will try to help the US here and there, while at the same time maintaining the Taliban as a hedge against India and the Tajik tribes. Don't forget that Pakistan captured and turned over to the US a key planner of the Twin Towers attack, Khalid Shiek Mohammed.

3. So our partnership with Pakistan is not 100%, but each side gets a little of what it wants....it's not a perfect alliance, but it's better than nothing. As for the common complaint that we're throwing billions of dollars at them, remember that most of that money is actually going to our own American defense contractors, who are selling hardware to the Pakistanis.

3.

 

CARL

9:30 AM ET

June 18, 2011

FG42: Ah, the nuanced view,

FG42: Ah, the nuanced view, probably reflective of that of our inside the beltway betters. Surprisingly though, that does not make me feel better about dead Americans, day after day. It does not make me feel better about my money being given to people who use it to kill our guys. Nope, careful and patient explanation of realpolitik doesn't do it. The essence of the situation is they kill our guys and we give them money, they kill our guys and we give them more money plus diplomatic cover, they kill our guys and we continue to give them money and the situation in Afghanistan worsens. That is not action based upon a nuanced view of a complicated situation in which we carefully weigh the relative advantages and disadvantages. That is stupid.

It always irks me when the Pak Army/ISI view and goal is explained as though I am supposed to shake my head in sudden understanding and say "Oh now I get it. Well of course they have to kill our guys and we have to give them money. Why didn't I realize that before?" Their outlook and goals differ from ours, no kidding. Just because we can figure out what the object of their game is doesn't me we have to play and we don't have to stake them.

 

FG42

9:39 AM ET

June 18, 2011

Carl, I understand what

Carl, I understand what you're saying. Unfortunately, the reality of international relations is that we're forced to "do business" with some troublesome "allies." Can't avoid it, unless we just want to retreat back to the borders of the country in North America. Case in point: Israel accepts all our foreign aid and constantly dumps on the US and figuratively spits in our eye. I don't know if you even remember the incident of the USS Liberty years ago, when the Israelis shot up our ship and killed 16 American sailors. In any case, Israel as a democratic state is essential to our interests in the Middle East, so we put up with it all.

 

CARL

12:42 PM ET

June 18, 2011

I well understand that

I well understand that sometimes you have to do business with the devil, the classic example is allying with the Soviets in WWII. But it is a false alternative to imply that we either work with the Pak Army/ISI or retreat to island America. There are variations in how much the ally benefits vs what he costs. The Soviets during the war refrained from killing us and killed a lot of Germans and Japanese. They didn't cross the line into enemy until after the war and after we stopped, mostly, giving them money. The Pak Army/ISI doesn't benefit us worth their cost and in my view has crossed over the line to enemy. We should stop pretending they haven't, stop paying them and call them what they are.

The Pak Army/ISI is going to do what they are going to do. They are scorpions. But we don't constantly have to play the frog. The question is how long are we going to do so? When are we going to see the situation, correction, most of us flyover people see it clearly enough, when are the inside the beltway elites going to see the situation as it really is and act accordingly?

I well remember when the Israelis murdered American 34 seaman. The only reason the ship wasn't sunk and even more murdered was because of U.S. Navy seamanship, we built 'em good in WWII and the Israelis weren't practiced up at sinking ships. The importance of Israel to American interests is another question but I think it important to note that Israel is a democratic and free state for only some of the people under its control; for the rest it is an open air prison. Israel is unfortunately well on its way to being an apartheid state.

 

CARL

12:54 PM ET

June 20, 2011

Mr. Khalid Mufti: You might

Mr. Khalid Mufti: You might want to check the demographic profile and education of American soldiery before you the bleat the cant about 'dose dumbells who don't know nuttin' and just goes where dey's pointed. The results might surprise you. You might want to visit Coon Rapids, I'll bet you'll find the people friendly.

Pak Army/ISI perfidy is quite evident to all from myriad sources going many years back.. The mystery is why we put up with it. Your implication that introspection is needed is a good one because we really should figure out why we let those scorpions keep killing our people.

If Pakistan finds accepting American money so distasteful, the should man up, refuse to accept it and stand on their own two feet. They should turn their backs on their status as a malicious beggar state and just be a malicious state. It would do their pride good and I encourage them to do so.

What do you think of this idea? The one thing Taliban & Co and the Afghan gov forces have in common is they both hate the guts of the Pakistanis. Maybe we could use that as a device to unite the two sides for the good of the Afghan people. How about it?

 

BARONSTERNBERG

11:51 PM ET

June 20, 2011

Getting out of this war

If Pakistan were to get out, the US and the Afghan army could probably wind it up in a few months.

Not to mention it would cause a steep decline in terrorist violence in South Asia and the Middle East. The ISI-constructed madrassas and militant training camps (paid for by Saudi Arabian money) are what's REALLY driving this epidemic of terrorism. Forget Iran. Forget Hezbollah. Forget Hamas. Two nation states---"allies" of the US, no less---are driving it.

A good source of info and history on this is Ghost Wars, by Steven Coll.

 

CARL

5:18 PM ET

June 21, 2011

Tell me Mr. Khalid Mufti, are

Tell me Mr. Khalid Mufti, are you upset that we don't give the Pak Army/ISI lucre as befits their status in the world or that they are willing to accept it? I can't tell. If we are so stupid as to give them money I guess they probably should accept it. They are after all beggar scorpions and that is their nature.

Over the long run the phrase "Pakistan will never let that happen" will not apply in the least to India. India will get so big and strong that it will be able to do almost whatever it pleases with Pakistan and the Pak Army/ISI will be able to do nothing to stop it. The tragedy of this whole thing is the supposed pro soldiers in the Pak Army can't see the folly of antagonizing the giant. The further tragedy is the feudal elites of Pakistan can't see how rich their country would become if they normalized relations with India. 'Tis a pity.

Did you ever read Scott Turow books? You should. He makes a point of highlighting the fact that you can find much high intelligence and ethical standards among people from humble backgrounds who have normal jobs. Cops were his example. I have found that to be true. I have also found that to be true amongst soldiers. Get off YouTube and go out there and meet some. Smart and good is not confined to the Ivy League. (I suspect it may be more frequently found outside the Ivy League.)

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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