Tuesday, June 7, 2011 - 6:53 AM

The Iranian president was going on today about a secret American plan to sabotage Pakistan's nukes. I thought he might be onto something in a Seymour Hersh-like way until I got to his revelation of American plans for a "massive presence" of presumably American and allied troops in Pakistan. I can honestly say I don't know of one American, in government or out, who thinks that sending a bunch of troops into Pakistan is a good idea. Not one.
Meanwhile, just to be helpful, Iran has deployed submarines to the Red Sea. I wonder if this is to pressure Saudi Arabia over the crackdown in Bahrain. But that is just a guess because I don't know enough about the Middle East to know if I am even in the ballpark. Maybe it is a response to the Israeli move of submarines through the Suez Canal nearly two years ago.
so why you seem so angry about what he said?
Ahmadinejad is a runt and says lots of things as all runts do, and the statement that Pakistan has close relations with Iran is a bit of a stretch at best.
Speaking of close relations and nukes: it is by no accident that the Chinese medium range missiles Saudi Arabia keep at two seperate locations have been modified to incorporate nuclear payloads that could be aquired through Islamabad should the Sa’uds so desire.
Additionally, Iran’s deployment of submarines is probably the natural progression of an emerging Iranian Navy, who also transited two surface ships through the Suez Canal back in February much to Israel’s displeasure, which may be what this is really about.
After all, our own Navy conducts freedom of navigation operations that see our ships steaming along the coasts of countries that lay claim beyond the proverbial 12 nautical mile limit, and it is in Iran's interest as a regional player to keep an eye on the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the moment.
Anyway, Israel has a secret weapon, there own German built electric Dolphin class submarines crewed by very competent crews, that are more than capable of taking out anything Iran can float on the surface or submerge below, should the need arise.
In this ever increasing politically correct climate, I should have mentioned there are good runts too, however Ahmadinejad just ain’t one of them. Know what I’m saying here Dog. . .err, Don?
TYRTAIO nails it. Much of what Ahmadinejad says or Iran does may have little to do with a deep strategic calculation. The Iranian Navy is basically saying “look at us were here!” Not so different from the Russian’s of the early Cold War years parading through Red Square sleek but empty aluminum tubes they pretended were missiles ready to go. That like Iran’s naval exhibitionism is designed to shape both domestic and international opinion.
Ahmadinejad is the regime in Tehran’s comic fusion of Goring and Goebbels. His ludicrous posturing of the big lie and senseless declarative outbursts seems to me manufactured more for Iranian ears than foreign.
Anyway, Israel has a secret weapon,
In addition to the German-built diesel electrics, one or two of these subs were built here in the USA under license. They were made with tubes which are slightly larger than our Tomahawk tubes. Gee, I wonder why? Those are likely the deployed subs.
The size and cruelty of the Revolutionary Guards and Judicial Police make I'm a dinner jacket a long-term nasty fixture unless he really angers the head Mullah.
...this seems to have already happened. In any event, we ought not to assume that Iranian naval deployments and Ahmedinejad are directly related. They may be, or may have been a while ago, but the Teheran equivalent of Kremlinology appears to be somewhat complex at the moment. Just because the Iranian president has the biggest mouth in the country doesn't mean he's calling all the shots.
And now, the much-needed story about ...
... ... what the US doesn't understand about bigmouth Ahmedinajad, about the religious government of Iran, about Iran? Have to be a pretty long story. Some mention of the "Bomb bomb bomb Iran" joke probably belongs in it. What was that funny?
Clues to the Ahmedinajad mind abound.
He laid out things as he saw them during the last decade through open letters to president Bush. None seem to have been examined much in the US news media and all remain available on the web. Certainly he wants the state of Israel abolished on the ground that he sees it as a sort of diplomatic accident, and theft: European and US payback to European Jews they had not protected from Mr Hitler. Unlike other regional leaders, Mr Ahmedinajad expresses no desire to harm Jews, other than wanting them to live in the Middle east under non-exclusively Jewish rule.
I have found no justification for the notorious AIPAC headline that "It's 1938, and Ahmedinajad is Hitler," but that piece of social engineering seems to have done a great job of whipping up racial hatred against the Iranians. The CIA did a much better job of the same thing by deposing the Iranian prime minister in 1953. This anti-tyrant had been an esteemed leader of his people in sundry roles for nearly half a century.
I see in the current string that TYRTAIOS glories in his tallth, a genetic accident. Other genetic accidents have made Iranians Iranian, Afghans Afghan, Pakistanis Pakistani, and so on. His suggestion that the Krauthammers of the world are nowt but empty bigmouths, I see he has somewhat modified. Good.
A politician making outrageous claims
Ahmadinejad would not last in the US where intellectual discourse is the rule; a well-informed electorate makes regular, healthy contributions to governance; and legislators refrain from emotionally driven, maudlin public declarations.
Agreed Ahmadinejad is a bigmouth, if one wants to appeal to salt of the earth types, you have to engage in demagoguery.
Of course one of A's most shocking statements, which has partially contributed to his bigmouth status- makes sense. Why do Palestinians have to suffer loss of territory to atone for Teutonic sins? While A is using the Palestinian cause in a cynical fashion, typical for the region, I can't help but agree that in a truly just world a big chunk of Deutschland should have been cleared of Germans and handed over to their victims. A hasn't learned that such statements are in bad taste and we should accept that unhelpful, narcissistic forms of German cultural masochism are sufficient. Until I went to Germany, I never knew that one could be arrogantly self-conceited whilst being contrite. Heaven forbid that anyone present a bill to Germany for the maintenance or restitution of Palestinian losses, recompense neighboring Arab states, or contribute to Israel's Defense or provide longterm aid to Israeli or Palestinian victims of the troubles.
In addition to what else you’ve laid out, Ahmadinejad is a bad parent and as a head of state, sets a bad example: it was recently disclosed he caught his youngest son watching a porn movie, and instead of disciplining his son as one would expect a good parent to do, Ahmadinejad said, "look son, what those Zionists are doing to that Palestinian girl."
@ Littlemantate: I seem to recall
That quite recently a group of prominent German academics sought the recognition of Palestinians as victims of the Holocaust.
Just to be clear for the irony-challenged: your first para was sarcasm, right?
Tyr, not surprised at all to read such an anecdote
but the question is whether to A in this instance of hypocrisy or lack of introspection. I'm sure A is a hypocrite, he rose to power as a jingoistic populist, that seems to come with the territory. What disturbs and frightens me, reading your anecdote, is whether it also displays a lack of introspection. Reminds me of a Druze fellow I knew once (and this guy was an educated Druze, not a Shiite peasant!) who said that if he so much as even stubbed his toe he'd blame a Jew.
Steve, if Germans make such a recognition then that is a start. But, I fear, it may prove to be too little, too late. I see nothing positive in the future of the Levant.
A bit of introspection Littlemantate
Ahmadinejad's arrogance and ambitions just may be his undoing. Besides his promise that the Mahdi will return before his term as president is up. . .a prediction that may make him further look the fool. He and Ayatollah Khamenei seem to be in a power struggle and his rhetoric as concerns the U.S. and Pakistan’s nukes is his usual way of playing to those in the IRGC that support him during domestic trying times.
It is my view, before the summer is out, we will see who holds sway over the IRGC, Ahmadinejad or the ayatollahs. However, in the end, if Ahmadinejad goes, Iran's policies won't change.
"Besides his promise that the Mahdi will return before his term as president is up. . .a prediction that may make him further look the fool."
He'll probably just kick it on down the road.... Like the rapture-istas.
Ahmadinejad must be very flattered about the amount of head time Americans are willing to give him, especially - as Zathras points out - he's a not particularly significant part of a very complex Iranian power structure that has shown itself to be very adept at sailing the stormy waters of global politics. And, as Kunino reasonably asks; "Who needs to learn about whom?"
A diversion needed or faith in the ability of the masses
to forget or practice cognitive dissonance.
On Tyr's point about Iranian political continuities, despite the rise and fall of A or cliques, is well taken. We tend to focus so much on personalities that we ignore deeper structural and cultural issues. It seems this is wishful thinking, a reflection of our own individualistic cultural aspirations (although it is questionable if we are anymore individualistic than any other group), and some of it is willful ignorance.
A's agency is limited, more powerful forces and groups within Iran, the US, the Sunni states, and Israel will prevent any meaningful rapprochement.
I see TYRTAIOS presenting as a recent disclosure (BBC? Reuters? AP?) that Ahmedinajad had conducted himself disgracefully in reviewing a porn movie. I offer a matching disclosure: that was a joke when Ahmedinajad was a schoolboy, and probably earlier. It's one of those standard let's-get-the-big-public-figure jokes intended to prompt disrespect for whoever happens to be around at the time. Rather like the pyschiatrist arrives at the Pearly Gates and Saint Peter cries out in joy: God thinks he's[insert name of current leading politician here].
Ponder the brilliant timing of LITTLEMANTATE, on June 7, right in the middle of Anthony Weiner Week, to suggest that, in contrast with bigmouth Ahmenetcetera, American legislators refrain from emotionally driven, maudlin public declarations.
Bullseye.
The Hezbollah is sponsored by Iran
The Hezbollah blew up the Marine barracks in Lebanon. The Hezbollah attacked Israel. Iran exported improved IEDs and the technology to make Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFP) to Shia in Iraq to defeat American armor and kill our soldiers. [Even though they are just shaped-charges.] Iran guides and hides Sadr and will have significant influence over his militia and movement as we withdraw.
So when we talk of Iran, let's not forget its clandestine and covert activities which have long threatened and killed Americans. Their nuclear program is but a small part of the problem.
Won't happen in your or my lifetime, not in any systematic, meaningful way. Politicians habitually lie to and manipulate their people, happens all around the world. In fact, they manipulate themselves. Some of what they say they probably mostly or at least half-way believe.
Conspiracy theories and fear-mongering have proven useful tools of administration since ancient times. What has changed in the West, at least, is that we no longer have a State funded religious hierarchy assisting those in control (serve your king or hell awaits!). Or do we?
RSF, as of now, I still suspect the body count is in the US' favor. We did back the Iraqi army in their spat with the Iranians. And we back Baloochi and Iranian groups that are recognized by our own government as terrorists. And, if we are worried about Iranians attacking our men in harm's way, the answer is simple- destroy Iran Punic War style (the more intense the destruction the greater the de-legitimization of your enemies' philosophy; the Spanish, Mongols and Romans all realized this, we accomplished something like this with Japan, although we don't like to talk about it) or, better yet, leave that region to its own devices and quit subsidizing Western European and Japanese oil consumption.
Wait 'til he sees the plans for the new US Embassy, Tehran.
20 square blocks. Three billion dollars. 12,000 employees (mostly ex-Blackwater). Self-contained Walmart, liquor stores, casino, livestock, farms. Diplomatic tanks, helos, C130s, and, of course, a massive sigint operation to not just monitor internal Iranian electronics, but to actually create and control all of it.
All we need now is a more receptive "partner" over there to close the deal, a Congress to fund it, and a completed Form SF-1001.
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