"Keep in mind that the history of Europe since the Romans has been basically, What to do about Germany?"

What? Can you please give me further explanation, please? I don´t remember any mention of Germany in, say, the birth of democracy in Greece, the legacy of Rome in western Europe, Poitiers battle, Italy´s Renaissance. OK, Charles I of Spain employed Lansquenetes (also from Switzerland) in the Tercios.

I start finding some german relevance in XVI century religious wars, but not because of a "german problem", but because of a religious question. So it might not be until the XVIII century and the emergence of Prussia when Germany takes a central point in european history.

But, you know, I might be wrong. Just like Mr. Ricks writes: "it looks to me like the periphery is what goes first"

The real question is whether the Euro will hold. Germans are quesitoning whether the benefits outweigh the risks associated with a unified Europe. The Irish are also wondering from a different place of the spectrum.

I am coming to believe that the Irish are devising a plan for what happens after the Euro. The punitive effects of bailing out their banks by following the IMF and flatfooted ECB impositions are strangling their economy. The taxpayers of Ireland are openly bleeding and starting to believe there are alternatives. The recent visits by the Queen and President Obama underscore a couple of salient points.

The Queen's visit was surprisingly (to me) very well received. This was not a diplomatic sleight of hand. From her visit on day one to honor the fallen martyrs of the War of Independence from Great Britain to her woman in the street events, the notion of healing relations was directly placed front and center for the populations of both countries to consider. 70% of Irish imports are shipped to Britain; a process that is impeded by the currency conversions necessitated by Irish membership in the EU. Brendan Behan was as radical as any card carrying member of the IRA said that the Irish and British should have economic affiliations while avoiding the political connections. I was there during the Queen's visit and recognized the careful stage management of her visit. Some smart people are thinking about Ireland after the Euro.

I also viewed the President's tript from my Irish perch. The Obama visit was a confidence boost for a demoralized Irish public that is still coming to terms with the death of the Celtic Tiger. His upbeat attitude highlighted by Yes We Can in Gaelic was hot on the heels of QE2 and stirred people out of their doldrums. The idea that the fate of Ireland may hinge on whether the Greeks meet their obligations is extremely disconcerting to the Irish. The fate of Greece also jars the sensibilities of the Germans.

It is clear that Germany is the preeminent power in "Old Europe." (That was among the more irritating utterances from Herr Rumsfeld!). I am not there however, when it comes to foreseeing a natural reversion to the Germany depicted in the accompanying picture. The real rather than imagined responsibilities as the economic top dog of Europe may actually tamp down any stirrings of military domination perceived by some. Ten years from now the Germans, British and Irish may find themselves in unseen and hopefully for all, peaceful circumstances.

As long as Germany is becoming ever more dependent on Russia for raw materials particularly energy they in fact lose considerable strategic maneuverability to the ways and whims of whatever clique inhabits the Kremlin. And now that Germany has decided to drop out of the nuclear power business the only real practical replacement for that energy loss (no it’s not windmills) is again Russia. That fact very well may throw a monkey wrench into the historic logic of the NATO alliance.

Years ago, I had a long conversation with a French Dentist on a ski lift. He had lived in Germany and said that Germans would end up running the EU. He also said the only reason French were playing is they thought they could run EU and as soon as it became obvious that Germany was driving that France would quit.

Aided by the success of Allied bombing during World War II, Germany with its brand new factories hospitals and the like was strongly on its feet economically by the early 1960s. Since then, it's had more than 20 years to weather the burden of taking on the virtually bankrupt former German Democratic Republic. It was offering troops to fight in Afghanistan, a highly significant moment, more than two years ago.

I suggest that the main single German issue of the past few years seems to be why America, galloping toward bankruptcy itself, still has that fabulously expensive military presence in Germany. It seems acknowledged that it's no longer needed there to defend western Europe. It's also claimed that it's there to support the German economy. As Kaplan and everybody else know, the German economy doesn't need that support. Hasn't for years.

The photo heading this thread is rather offensive, I think. Kaplan is obviously correct when he says that Germany is the dominant economic power in Europe. But apparently he believes that there is a potential for Germany to be the dominant military power as well, and does the 3rd Reich photo imply that it would be the resurgence of an aggressive militarism as well?

I think anyone who has spent any time in Germany will ask what planet Kagan is on. Germany is extremely allergic to any kind of military deployment beyond its borders; public opinion is overwhelmingly against their Afghan involvement. The German public is barely supportive of its military to begin with, as is the case in Japan, another country with a deep memory of crushing defeat in WW2. The US constantly has to browbeat and nag the Germans (and the Japanese) to up the ante in terms of building up their military. This is all in the media.

On a personal level, I've been an exchange officer with the Bundeswehr and have lasting friendships with many Geman officers. I am convinced that the Bundeswehr is fundamentally a democratic, Home Defense force and that it has had that role and culture throughout the entire 50 years of its existence (note that the Bundeswehr has had the longest continuous life of any Germany army....the Wehrmacht that everyone talks about existed only for 10 years). They even have a labor union for the soldiers. The old Prussian-style drill and discipline is long gone -- you'd more likely find that today in our Marine Corps or certain Army units. It's a shame that Kagan and that photo raise such a red herring about one of our staunchest allies in Europe.

GSF: Congratulations on your daughter's betrothal. We Americans can learn a lot from the Europeans. Every time I visit Germany, I'm amazed at how it seems that they enjoy a higher quality of life than we do, even though America has a higher per capital income. In any event, regarding your question about America learning what the Germans seem to understand today about international relations, perhaps it requires (unfortunately) a catastrophic national defeat like we've never experienced yet. We're still riding high on traditonal American "triumphalism." I recommend to everyone Prof. Andrew Bacevich's recent books on that subject. As you might know, he is a professor at Boston University. Being a retired Army officer, VN vet, and father who lost his son in combat in Iraq, his views are particularly perceptive. Semper Fi!

Thank you, gentlemen. I must say I have to agree with your assessments of German (and more widely speaking, European) mindset. I just returned last week from a working trip that took me to the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and Spain. I found the typical and overwhelmingly friendly European attitude towards Americans in general to still be there, 18 years after my last trip to the Continent and 23 years after my first trip to the Med.

I must say though that the friendliness is tempered a bit with disappointment and confusion on the part of the Dutch, Germans, Spaniards, Belgians, British and Greeks with whom I spoke. "What, exactly, are you guys thinking these days?" seemed to be the most common question they had for me. "What are these wars doing to advance American and European goals for the future?"

Typically high European standards of education and worldliness contrasted with what I find when I go home to the States for those brief visits. Certainly the Northern Europeans roll their eyes when they talk about Greek and Spanish fiscal profligacy and they are concerned with exactly how much more bailout the Euro can buy. But they also are deeply concerned with the wisdom of America's leadership in the modern world.

I took the liberty to critize your blogposts on Germany and their illustration with Nazi era photos:

Tom Ricks Mistrusts Germany
http://atlanticreview.org/archives/1481-Tom-Ricks-Mistrusts-Germany.html

Tom: Wow! I just read your old post of October 19, 2020 ("Our German Problem"). You really do seem to think the Storm Troopers are about to march in today's Germany. Your slant on the Germany of 2010, including invocation of the Carthaginian "Morgenthau Plan," is so far out that it defies rational discussion. What a difference between that and your perceptive, well-informed analysis and insights on the US and its Middle East adventures!