I'm hearing the announcements will start as soon as the Memorial Day weekend is over, probably coming Tuesday. In addition to Dempsey as chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Odierno as chief of staff of the Army, the vice chief of the Army, I am told, likely will be Lloyd Austin. Apparently the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs will be Adm. James Winnefeld.

This means that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the chief of the Army, and the chief of the CIA all will be people who commanded Army divisions in Iraq during that horrible first year, 2003-2004, which I found harder than subsequent years because I never expected the leadership of the United States military and government to screw it up so badly. (Dempsey had 1st Armored Division, Odierno had 4th Infantry Division, and Petraeus had 101st Airborne Division. Makes me want to dig out my notes for Fiasco of the logs of commanders' meetings from that year.)   

The smart money says this is a short-term play -- putting an Army guy in as chairman signals that the Obama administration is very focused on dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as Iraq, over the next couple of years. The long-term play would have been guys more focussed on the Pacific and China. I would bet that might be the next round -- Dempsey's successor in four years. 

Bonus puzzler: It will be interesting to see how Odierno and Petraeus overcome the bad blood caused by Winnefeld's stealth mission for Adm. Fox Fallon (remember him?) to Iraq in 2007 to curtail the surge.  

UPDATE: It now looks like the announcement will be made on Monday itself.

Getty Images

 

FG42

6:15 PM ET

May 28, 2011

WTF? Wasn't Odierno the CG

WTF? Wasn't Odierno the CG of the 4th ID in the early days of the Iraq War, and didn't his division have the policy of kicking doors down, dragging men out wholesale and interning them on little or no intel, and otherwise acting the part of aggressive, oppressive occupiers -- arguably feeding the coming insurrection? Wasn't Petraeus' success with the 101st exactly the opposite of the knuckle-dragging Odierno's policies? If so, why is Odierno being rewarded with the top job in the Army? Is there no accountability any more? Is the Army's talent pool so shallow?

 

AUSSIESWEDE

12:10 AM ET

May 30, 2011

Goerge Casey is a good

Goerge Casey is a good idea... :)
_________
Act for your health now!
acupressure mat,
gabriel method and
bursitis hip

 

TOWNIE 76

8:52 PM ET

May 28, 2011

Odierno

You are correct Odierno Division was heavy handed, however as Petraeus second in command during the critical days of the surge, he underwent an ephipney. He proved his mettle in that position and when he replace Petraeus as the Commander in Iraq.

As far as Casey, a nice man, but clearly over his head in Iraq and as CSA. I was struck by one picture of him in the Fourth Star (between pp 154-55) in Bosnia. He is briefing Turkish officers in full battle rattle to include a perfectly snapped helment. This picture says a lot, as he is a man who will not deviate from the expected norms even when it makes sense!

 

HUNTER

11:41 PM ET

May 28, 2011

Errr

I'd much rather see Dempsey as CofS. Odierno will be better than Casey was, but that is such a low bar.

 

TOWNIE 76

2:17 AM ET

May 29, 2011

Concur

See my post at http://op-for.com/2011/05/dempsey-as-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff.html for related comments.

 

TTC

8:52 AM ET

May 29, 2011

Looking at the big picture

Did Casey do anything right in Iraq?

What has he done as CSA?

 

TOM RICKS

12:13 PM ET

May 29, 2011

Monday, not Tuesday

It looks like, at least for Dempsey.
Best,
Tom

 

SOLDIERSDIARY

10:21 AM ET

May 30, 2011

feedback

Give us your thoughts on this one Tom, you wrote quite a bit about him in Fiasco, then much more in a positive light in the Gamble...

 

CAMIO

1:38 PM ET

May 29, 2011

A comment from China

Agree on Tom's guess on Dempsey's successor. Although that means the final shift of US military focus from war on terrorism to Asia-Pacific -- more specifically, China.The so called AirSea Battle Concept will be widely discussed after US finishes up in Afghanistan.

But why not some harmonious coexit? Quit cold-war thinking.

 

JAY75

1:28 AM ET

May 30, 2011

Interesting

I would have said back in 2004-05 that GEN O would have been a poor choice for this position. Upon further reflection I think he is the right choice. He understands soldiers and understands the transformation period the Army is going to go thru with the draw downs from both theatres that is coming in the near future.

 

HARDTOBELIEVE

11:43 AM ET

May 30, 2011

this will be fun to watch

This mix of characters will be fun to watch. Grab a seat and get your popcorn. Dempsey is the same guy who corrected people's grammar on documents while at Tradoc. Odierno was the Nate Sassaman supporter while at 4ID in Samarra, totally letting Sassaman jump the chain of command right over the brigade commander. Heard that Odierno had softened since his son was injured in the war. In any case, add Austin to the mix and there will be fireworks for sure.

Think about it. The pool is small and these guys have been interacting (both favorably and unfavorably) with each other for nearly 35 years. There may be water under the bridge, but all of them are human beings who, for better or worse, are fallible. If I were POTUS and choosing senior, senior leaders, I would ask a behavioralist to examine their histories together and determine what this particular mix will reap. My guess is that competition, testoterone, branch loyalties, and history will only lead to gridlock. Talk about your team of rivals.

 

SOLDIERBOY88

5:42 PM ET

June 3, 2011

Linkages

What is missing from the article is the WHY all these sudden moves?

Moves at this level prior to an election year are about known entities that will not embarrass the administration.

General “Hoss” Cartwright was the prime candidate for CJCS as mentioned by President Obama on numerous occasions. He was not selected because of Civilian leadership objection in the Pentagon. That most likely means Ms. Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and the number three person in the Pentagon. When it comes to money, she is the chair for the Deputy’s Advisory Working Group (DAWG). The military equivalent was led by General Cartwright was the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC). Being a fly on the wall, one could surmise that there was a difference of opinion on how the Department of Defense should curtail programs which led to a move to retire General Cartwright.

Enter General Dempsey. Ms. Flournoy’s previous job was as the president of the Center for a New American Strategy (CNAS) which is one of the administrations key think tanks. She was replaced by Dr. John Nagl who, as an Army officer, served under Dempsey and knows him. Also, General Raymond Odierno was neck and neck with General Dempsey for the selection to Chief of Staff of the Army (CSA) when General Casey departed. Only makes sense that when the known entity of General Dempsey was selected to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Odierno would fill the CSA slot.

General David Petraeus to CIA director is a smart move as well. To continue the fight in Afghanistan while pulling out U.S. forces, America will go to covert operations. That means the CIA will lead the fight. Who better to steer the ship than the commander who has been in the front lines fighting the war for the past ten years.

Finally, CIA Director Panetta to Secretary of Defense is another logical and smart move. To cut the Department of Defense budget, you need someone who knows the government monetary bureaucracy. Under the Clinton administration he was Director of the Office of Management and Budget, a position that built on his years of work on the House Budget Committee.

I agree with Tom this may be a short term fix, but anything in the beltway is counted in dog-years.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

Read More