Thursday, May 5, 2011 - 11:14 AM
Someday Jim Thomas is gonna be under secretary of Defense for policy or an NSC bigwig, so you might as well start reading him now. He has a very strong piece in the new issue of The American Interest about how to reformulate American alliances.
We're going to have to change the way have thought about our alliances for the last 73 years, Thomas says, because we can't afford to keep playing Uncle Sugar. Also, the military realities are changing, with more potential adversaries acquiring high-tech weaponry that will enable them to establish what he calls "keep-out zones."
So, he says, members of the eastern part of NATO and some other allies will ned to "assume greater responsibility for the initial defense" of their territories. As part of this, we will need to help them develop their own "anti-access capabilities." This would mean a major reorientation of our arms merchants, he continues, and so, "Instead of always reaching for the next level of technological innovation , America's defense industry might have to focus more on making systems more affordable for U.S. allies."
Meanwhile, he says, members of the old school part of NATO should ensure they have power projection capabiltities to aid their eastern neighbors.
In South and East Asia, he wants to see "shared access" to bases, rather than permanent "Little America" garrisons. And he puts India at the top of his list of new U.S. allies.
I'd be interested in what JT thinks we should do about Pakistan now.
"members of the old school part of NATO" are going to do less and less going forward. NATO is going to end up as some vestigal ritual long after everyone forgot that it once had a purpose.
Old school NATO has no desire to get involved in a war in some woebegone place like Georgia. Not having any ability to project force is a good way to ensure that it does not happen. Not much reason for Western Europe to end up as guarantors of the border between Dagestan and Chechnya.
They have been schlepping that idea about "anti-access capabilities" for years (was a central part in bogus RDO doctrine). The central problem is not that we can't get IN, it is that we can never get OUT.
I agree. with England slashing defense and countries like the Netherlands making major cuts in hardware like tanks and "participation tempo" in NATO, old school NATO is not going to project east.
Saw him at NDU today to talk on a panel about future WMD threats. Not impressive at all. Needs to learn how to fill out a 20-min timeframe.
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