Monday, April 4, 2011 - 11:02 AM
For my money, David Ignatius is the best intelligence reporter around, even though he is officially a columnist (and novelist), not a beat journalist. He had a piece that ran over the weekend and so unfortunately might be missed by many.
High points:
--"Gaddafi is slowly running out of money -- and his inner circle is showing early signs of collapse."
--On the CIA presence inside Libya: "At present there are only several dozen operatives, including full-time case officers from the Special Activities Division, which manages covert actions, supplemented by former officers, known internally as 'cadres,' who are on direct contract to the agency. Their tasks include providing clandestine communications links for the Libyan opposition, contacting and assessing the rebels, and providing money and other assistance to Libyans to break with Gaddafi."
--"The agency has some experience in Libya thanks to previous covert actions there, including one code-named 'Sprint' some years ago." Tom: I have no idea of what "Sprint" was, but an intriguing detail. It sounds to me like someone at CIA is telling Ignatius, Hey, it isn't our first time around the block here.
--The task ahead is bribing tribal leaders to split with Qaddafi. Tom: I have been hearing this from others.
--"an intelligence source said that his [Qaddafi's] bankroll will last him another two to three months."
That's a lot of news to stuff into on op-ed column.
Iggy's bottom line: This guy is weaker than people think.
On the other hand, this piece by a secondary culprit in the Iraq mess just felt to me like Jeffery Dahmer correcting someone's table manners. I had a visceral unhappiness reading it, and was surprised to see that my friend and colleague Andrew X-Man twitted such a different reaction to it.
David Ignatius is far too good at his craft to have being a novelist noted in parentheses! "Agents of Innocence" is arguably my favorite spy novel, second only to "The Quiet American" (which actually receives a cameo in the novel). I've read in several places - all from the same source? - that it is recommended reading at the Farm, and/or George Tenet recommended it. I suspect it is probably far closer to how intelligence actually works than many or most novels - little violence, little sex. Anyways, apologies for the off-topic comment, but excited to see David Igantius's reporting complimented, and wanted to give (appropriate) props to his novel-writing skill.
ANON_ANON, my goodness give yourself a treat and read ‘The Man Who Came in From the Cold’, 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy’ and 'Smiley's People' by John LeCarre (David Cornwall – ex-MI6). These books are the absolute summit (K2 not Everest which is the easier of the two) of the spy novel craft and interestingly, the film adaptations were equally as good in both casting and in the integrity of the scripts.
Tom:
In fact, I did appreciate Meg O'Sullivan's rewarding piece, an open mea culpa/lessons learned from someone who particularly has had plenty of time to ponder them.
Ignatius, I am sure, is gradually beginning to understand the essential nature of tribal payola schemes that are the underpinning of dictators. It is not that they are omnipotent, but that they have bought off serious opposition while crushing others (Is that a version of representative government supported by (at least) some people?).
Exum's same old diatribes reassuringly confirms that, for all these folks struggling to learn from the near past, at least one commentator remains committed to eating soup with knives to make him thirsty enough for a third cup of tea, following the same process of local co-optation that, for the most part, puts us in the current spot.
I'm still waiting for a credible pundit to credibly explain where this Libyan Operation (Obscure Dawn?) might be going.
I'm surprised no one else here has noticed that the Libyan air campaign now has a new designation: Operation Unified Protector.
I kind of liked Odyssey Dawn. If you thought about it too much it was a little disturbing. Odyssey = long journey; Dawn = beginning. In Libya. Swell. But if you only heard it in passing, you'd have thought we were back to the days when military operations were named in a way that didn't try to make clear to every first-grader in the country what we were trying to do: Just Cause, Enduring Freedom, Iraqi Freedom.
It lasted about a week. Now we're back to hitting first-graders over the head: Unified Protector. Unified, as in together with all our allies, especially the Arabs who do no fighting. Protector, as in shielding innocent civilians who are not at all trying to overthrow their government from being massacred by the army allied planes have been blowing up. Truth is only said to be war's first casualty because subtlety gets so completely atomized that it's just reported as missing until after the war is over.
By the way, I thought O'Sullivan's piece was largely on point. Tom Ricks may have assumed she was following the discreditable example set by bloggers on the Shadow Government site here, who regularly criticize President Obama by way of fishing for praise of former President Bush. I don't think that's a fair reading of what O'Sullivan was trying to do.
I liked Operation Iraqi Liberation, too. Straight-forward, and added up to three letters O-I-L to keep critics confused about why we were there (Iran).
The Odyssey struck my senses immediately, with visions of our tenth year, one year at a time.
It seems the rebels are being steadily pushed back, Gaddhafi's forces are reported to be steadily advancing. But despite this, he's certain to lose within two or three months?
This kind of "analysis" reminds me of what Fighin' Joe Hooker claimed at Chancellorsville - Bobby Lee's not getting away this time.
I'll admit, at first, I shared Exum's concerns about the Boys from Benghazi being a little too close to the radical Islamist camp, with their track record of sending suicide bombers to Iraq. I think I may have over reacted. If these guys were hard core AQ types, they'd probably be winning more battles.
I think we are on the right track, if Qaddafi is bleeding money like Ignacious says. But, if memory serves, another paranoid dictator in the Middle East had a pretty good stock of small arms and explosives stockpiled to keep things interesting for quite a while. Consider this my addition to the "Things I learned in Iraq" theme.
...about Dahmer in the kitchen! (I am so proud, because I've been cribbing from you for years).
It's an election cycle lets go shoot some bad guys,lets go overthrow a dictator
lets make the world ------- fill in the blank of your choice. On the home front meanwhile public education at all levels is being gutted, millions remain out of work,out of their homes and out of hope. Millions of americans have no healthcare,the infrastucture crumbles and the dollar heads towards Weimar Republic value. The troops are exhausted,the people are too and the Big Fools keep on marching us into the Big Muddy. But thats okay the Tea Party will save us by trashing NPR and Planned Parenthood and Rubio just volunterred us to kill Gaddafi and have the western tribes enlist in AQI/ Magreb chapter, Harry Reid wants Senate support for the President and President Obama just opened his campaign office in Chicago and I just watched my kids Talon land in Sendai. It is only respect for Mr Ricks and the contributors to this Blog that keeps this post from being nothing but a string of multilingual cuss words-I'm beyond disgust.
Except for leaving out the complete abandonment of democracy to coordinated reactionary coups in at least four states, you pretty much summed it up, WillieJoe.
Until last week, I was feeling pretty good about retirement. I start Medicare on June 1 and rescued a lifetime of savings in 2008 by converting to cash in the nick of time. Now I just feel helpless and effed over.
Well, the good news is that after the economy collapses following the looming Tea Party debt ceiling fiasco, the U.S. will no longer be able to afford war. We'll have to barter our gear and pimp out our troops to make good the bottomless promissory note for congressional pensions, the one thing even those clueless morons wouldn't ever touch.
All that and glow in the dark for 36,000 years.
Tom,
I think your metaphor was over the top. Okay, you don't like Meghan and didn't even mention her name in your post. Got it. How about invoking Godwin's Law and comparing her to Albert Speer next time?
Her Op-Ed seemed to lay out things for current policy makers (& pundits) to consider as they charge off on the Libyan adventure. Just because you don't agree with her perspective doesn't mean her analysis isn't worth pondering.
Tom's reference to Dahmer was tied back to an article, not written by Meghan, it was written by Paul Wolfowitz. And he is always worthy of derision.
Yesterday that article was linked to a Wolfowitz byline. Was I the only one who saw that?
Again my mistake the article in question by Wolfowitz is in the ANALOGY post below this one. Mea culpa.
Thank God the Libyan operation is a success
no worries, Q will go and we can have another nation to experiment on. But this time we are for reals, ya'll, no Bremer style messing around. We'll get it right this time and get vindicated and all that.
Does Iggy know that the U.S. will be broke in only two months, as soon as the debt ceiling raise fails?
Let's wait for 3 months and see
If Qaddafi is still around what then? Can the families of the rebels who've died while foolishly advancing because they believed that Qaddafi is a paper tiger, sue those who made this conflict look so easy?
David Corrrectly counts Gaddafi's cash, but overlooks his gold stash. Unicorn
We were initially told "days, certainly not months or weeks" for this operation. Now we are getting "just three more months and Qadaffi is broke" from "insiders". Can't wait and see what the "insiders" are saying next week. Weren't we strung along like this somewhere before? Weren't we once promised a no-fly zone combined with sanctions were certain to run some other guy out of town?
Sanctions and no fly zones are not the Lybia strategy
The Lybia strategy is to have the Arab League, the UN, Nato, the African Union active and involved in ridding the world of one of its most notorious and nefarious bad guys. Even the hard liners in Beijing and Moscow could not muster a veto at the UN against this one and the soft heads in Brazil and India had to go along (with Germany bringing up the rear of resignation to the inevitable).
This operation is a winner from the get go. Who will join to fight with Gadhafi? Who will speak for Gadhafi at any world or regional forum? Who will defy the US Treasury and others like it to front him with desperately needed money and resources to fight on?
The US JCS initially said Gadhafi had the money and resources to prevail over the rebels. Then Sarkozy went to work on David Cameron and with the help of Hillary Clinton converted the cautious (ditherer) Obama to the military cause. When Obama committed to this O went into this to win, and he has a winning lineup that would make Saddam quiver during his tyrany's best of times.
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