Friday, March 25, 2011 - 6:41 AM

If President Obama had not intervened in Libya a week ago, we would indeed probably now be looking at Benghazi as his Srebrenica -- except that his Cairo speech would have given him an additional load of responsibility, of seeming to bear false promises. It likely would have been an abiding blot on his presidency. For that reason alone, I think he had to intervene.
All the military grumbling I am hearing now about the need for strategic clarity reminds me of early in World War II, when Generals Marshall and Eisenhower could not see the need to land in North Africa, but FDR did, both to keep the Russians in the war and to convey to Americans that we were fighting the Germans. As it turned out, this was also the right move for tactical reasons, because the U.S. military needed to learn a lot, and it did in Africa and Sicily. Had it instead tried to go directly into France in 1943, when Nazi airpower was still strong, D-Day might well have been a disaster.
These notes I get from military officers demanding clarity of goals and stated strategic purposes puzzle me. The nature of war is ambiguity and uncertainty. I worry that such demands are really a fancy form of shirking. It makes me wonder if before getting married, these complaining colonels draw up pre-nuptials that state:
1. How long the marriage is going to last, with a clear exit strategy of how it ends -- divorce, death, or other.
2. Detailed discussions of roles and responsibilities, including how much notice must be given to the spouse if an extramarital affair is to be undertaken.
3. Description of the marriage's integration into the larger community.
4. Statement of how much time and emotion is to be devoted to the enterprise.
As my hero Triumph says, I kid, I kid. But there is a serious point to be made: There is a basic contradiction here between these officers' insistence on clarity and the ambiguous and uncertain nature of warfare.
Never, ever, dial up Triumph videos at work. People tend to stare at laughing crying idiots rolling on the floor.
"These notes I get from military officers demanding clarity of goals and stated strategic purposes puzzle me."
It used to be called the Weinberger Doctrine, remember? But remember two other things about the concept. One is that it's context when first presented in a Weinberger speech was primarily a response to Administration infighting between SecDef and Secretary of State Schultz - it was not lofty doctrine but rather the Thursday edition of a running gunfight between these two people and these two institutions. At the time it was just another political story (& BTW, never policy qua policy).
The second thing to remember is that Colin Powell was Weinberger's Military Assistant at the time. Since then Powell has reclaimed the doctrine as his own, now so labeled. That's OK - I think he really wrote it for Weinberger.
So it's a speech, not a doctrine, has never been enshrined as expressed policy, but has become the Army's answer to any call to arms. Tom, I think you're right. If you're hearing 'hell no we won't go' in this, you've correctly nailed it as a cop-out for generals.
And it expresses imperialism. If our nation's vital interests correctly identified are at stake, we fight. No doctrine, fight. But when it's in this George Bushian realm of world domination and imperialistic designs on the nationhood of folks he didn't like ('he tried to kill my daddy!'), it comes into play not as doctrine and strategy but rather as part of the checklist before we start the next war of choice. Our army is an instrument of state. But when the state starts on the path of military meddling, the army becomes an instrument of the Administration and not of the nation. Perhaps this is the very best reason for a draft: no war army of conscripts falling in upon a professional cadre can ever be merely a tool of the Presidency; it takes the nation to allow it and back it.
We've sure got a lot of silliness to sort out in the years ahead.
As a matter of history, RD is mostly right. However, he leaves out the essential context -- that Weinberger was preoccupied with the Soviet threat, and saw military commitments directed at other things as distractions. The Weinberger/Powell Doctrine might as well have been called the No More Lebanon 1983 Doctrine.
Of course, that begged an important question after the Soviet collapse: how should the doctrine change without an existential threat to impose discipline on American decisions to commit military forces to combat. Powell's inclination was to maintain the doctrine; many Americans, in both parties, disagreed. Saddam Hussein having forced America's hand by overrunning an American ally muddied the waters, but beginning with the first Gulf War the country was on a slope toward trying to apply the W/P Doctrine while deploying American power in response to much more limited threats than the one that had dominated Weinberger's attention during the 1980s.
The context Zathras describes rings true as does its application/misapplication to threats and provocations well outside the range of nation-threatening (to the US).
On the other hand, conflating the W/P Doctrine's (an assigned name, not its original) 6 tests for the use of military force to the UN charter is a bit much. The Charter, in its general wording quoted, is about when force may be used by a nation. The 6 tests have more to do with when its not to be used, with what conditions must be met on the military side before committing forces. It's more in line with Tom's original point, that the generals find a lot of reasons for staying out of war.
Yes, a key strategic principle is "Avoid fair fights." But also true: "When you take the king's coin, you do the king's bidding." In the American system, generals do as told by civilian authority (that too has a name...). But sometimes they cross the line. Here perhaps. Also Powell's NYT OpEd piece while serving, Powell against gays in the military. Etc.
In all this one remember's Lincoln's line, "If General McClellan isn't going to use his army, I'd like to borrow it for a time." Perhaps the current Commander in Chief is less diplomatic than Lincoln. Whatever, he has the authority under the Constitution and what he does does not require the advice and consent of the US Army's uniformed leadership.
As a sign of solidarity, civilian voluntary donations!
We need infomercials, ala Sally Strothers, requesting monies for the rebels, no, no, Legitimate Libyan Provisional Government.
Here's a sample pitch:
"So often we take our democratic lifestyle for granted, but in other parts of the world people are struggling on 25% political representation or less. For less than $10 a day you can support a Libyan Freedom Fighter. Think about it, that's less than an entree at TGIF or Applebees or 3 domestic beers and a tip at a strip mall bar.
With you pledge of $500 you'll receive an information packet with a picture of your Libyan Freedom Fighter, a short biography, and a list of his positions on social and geopolitical issues."
No wait, scratch that, giving money to some of the Libyans might run one afoul of the Justice Department for aiding and abetting terrorists. Oh what is a liberal internationalist to do? I know. I'll start a facebook solidarity club and try to get all my friends from Free Darfur to join.
Joking aside, "blot on the presidency" as casus belli?
So the nation must intervene, military people must face danger and the tax-payers must go further into debt in order to avoid a stain on Obama's reputation? If he was making promises that he couldn't fulfill without acting to the detriment of his constituents then he deserves the shame.
And shirking from what? Not everybody subscribes to recently invented international imperatives.
It sets a low bar, doesn't it?
Does Mr. Ricks presume that we need to intervene in Israel/Palestine before another war erupts there, since it played an important role in the Cairo speech?
But I think he also misses out what a lot of people are saying and why there was hesitance to intervene in Libya. Limited resources. With two wars, and three "unofficial" conflicts, while attempting to assist one of our greatest allies in a time of crises (Japan), in the midst of a barely improving economy, high unemployment, and strategic resources being delivered to assist with the development of Egypt and Tunisia. Oh, and now Libya to stop a potential massacre that may still happen because we are in the early stages of a civil war. Sorry, Mr. Ricks, if being careful and worried about an already big plateful is a sin, then I gladly accept that burden.
well, hate to say it, but the final end game (if things go bad) is probably "we cut our losses, sorry we did what we could for ya..." or "not sure, go ask the French and Brits, this is their mission..." which in both cases it might be better to be "unclear" about that and not actually say it out-loud...
I find it puzzling that you believe war is based on uncertainty and ambiguity. Actually, I just find it silly. It's a ridiculous cover for your own confusion and lack of clarity. For all I've read, you're still poking around for a reason to go in. Only now that we're pulling out can you say "what we did was good." But you never really had any definitive recommended course of action to begin with or justification for it. You don't score points for marking the correct answer after the teacher has graded your paper.
You're still going on about how you're right without considering that you're essentially committing the same egregious errors of ommission that you blame the leaders at Wanat for. I know you've been to Iraq and had some close calls, but lately you sound like you've been spending a little too much time in the luxuries of a think tank. Is every mission being flown over there essential and decisive toward achieving the ultimate political objective? Or are we just flying around looking for things to bomb, all video game style? It started as a no-fly zone. Now we're zapping troop carriers. The mercs were supposed to wither away within days of our shock and awe hitting them. Now it's going to take "some weeks." No one was going to put any ground troops in whatsoever. Now the Brits and rebels are talking about limited SOF assets providing assistance.
So I don't really blame you for what you've written here. If world leaders can make it up as they go along, why can't you?
I got out as a Captain but I still agree with your "grumbling Colonels." Probably because I've seen the extra costs incurred by not coming up with a good plan. You don't have to write an 11-page thesis full of doctrinal terms. 250 words on what the hell we're doing and what things I have to accomplish so I can get out of here and go home will suffice. We killing Qaddafi? Partitioning the country? Keeping a no-fly zone or conducting strikes in direct support of rebel columns? Who's the enemy? Are the 'friendlies' actually friendly?
You might not be wrong, but you're more than spitting distance from right. The truth is that you don't know. But as the man once said, if you don't know what you're talking about, keep talking until you figure it out.
You're reachin' w WW II analogy
I have never read anything about the FDR or Churchill being confused about if it was OK for Hitler to still be in power in Germany at the end of WWII.
I am not even convinced that operation Torch (instead of say Sicily in 1942) was a strategic level decision and not a operational decision. I know the Pols and Combined Chiefs made the decision, that does not make it strategy. "If we stay off the continent we may not get our butts kicked in the first battle" that is a good idea but hardly strategy. Torch worked well with Churchill's way of business "pinpricks around the periphery and no decisive effort". Churchill after being a key architect of Gallipoli and who led a Bn on the Western Front (after being fired as First Lord) had an aversion to decisive operations.
The Allies had a lot of various side excursions, Bomber Command and 8th Air Force said they were going to win the war. The political goals and endstate were clear.
The STRATEGY had been developed by Albert C. Wedemeyer when he was working for Marshall. Wedemeyer had been educated at the Kriegsakademie so the strategy was to make entry into the Continent of Europe and carry the war into the German heartland (Simple like Karl said).
If you don't know where you're going you can get there by almost any route.
Just to get this straight, for a war (because this is a war, however small) you didn't believe in with Iraq, senior officers were morally remiss for not questioning the clear lack of an end state and poor planning, but for this "morally" justified war officers are "shirking" their duty by asking for clarity.
I usually think you are pretty sharp, but I think you are way off on this.
"If President Obama had not intervened in Libya a week ago, we would indeed probably now be looking at Benghazi as his Srebrenica -- except that his Cairo speech would have given him an additional load of responsibility, of seeming to bear false promises."
This lead reveals precisely what is and has long been wrong with American foreign policy.
It's not about Presidents. Who they are. What they say.
In 1983, Ronald Reagan moronically quipped that Marines in Beirut were there as "peacekeepeers" and, later, were there to "support the legimate government of Lebanon."
Both of these ad libs were substantively incorrect, but U.S. policy instantly shifted to them in order to prevent Reagan from looking like an ass.
The end result was =not= the deaths of 241 American servicemen in the October 23, 1983, bombing. Not even close. It has stretched through three land wars and assorted chaos to the bombing of Libya this week. And it will continue to bear poison fruit as long as Muslims remember that the U.S. Marines were sent in 1983 to support Christian oligarchs in Lebanon--because Ronald Reagan said so. Stupidly. Incorrectly. Stubbornly. Unquestioned. And unjudged (except by me).
Do our sons and daughters have to pay in blood for what the next U.S. President in a row has said aloud in a moment of utter stupidity?
What we see playing out in front of experts who have become utterly inurred to irresponsibility from our leaders is American hubris.
You may be right about Reagan and Lebanon, but arguing his actions in Lebanon are some sort of continuing cassus belli for Islamists today it unsupportable.
In the first place, the hostility towards the US predated anything Reagan said or did. Iran's proxies were behind that bombing, and they didn't develop their anger at the US when the first Marines landed. (see the hostage crisis)
The sin of Lebanon we're still paying for is that the optional and obstinate use of force in a petty domestic political fight between Reagan and the Congress (War Powers Act) gave poor Beiruti Shiites in a nascent Hezbollah bragging rights no other force on earth had earned: They threw the U.S. Marines out of Lebanon. Shiite hegemony in Lebanon and an impressive, ongoing string of Shiite victories elsewhere began there and then with that stupid history-altering shit that dripped from Reagan's empty brain via his sneering lips.
Not just Shiites, Eric, Sunnis got a morale boost in the 1980s
overthrowing the Godless Soviets. That happened on Reagan's watch as well.
Once again, Europe's responsibility
The issue of Srebrinca is and was Europe's responsibility. The same goes for Libya, if England and France wanted to go into an ambiguous conflict zone and be dragged into a quagmire in their own backyard with their own national interests at stake, then fine. But asking questions by American military leaders is a MUST.
Also the parallel is faulty, the massacre of Srebrinca was due to UN forces already on the ground withdrawing and letting the Serbs murder the Bosnians.
Atlantic Magazine 2001 September
"In the course of a hundred days in 1994 the Hutu government of Rwanda and its extremist allies very nearly succeeded in exterminating the country's Tutsi minority."
800,000 dead folk can shape your thinking.
I saw some atrocities in Vietnam about 45 years ago (done by VC) and it certainly shaped the way I think about these things.
You folks have no blood on your hands if you do not try to stop it?? And Yes, it is messy.
I read Powers in Atlantic, I thought it was mindless at the time and you reminded me of the author.
We get it that Rwanda was bad, Powers had no feasible solution. She acted like 2500 peacekeepers (she called them "heavily armed" they had no heavy weapons) ought to be able to whup 100,000 Hutus armed w heavy weapons, light armored vehicles and light artillery. Actually she seemed to think that peacekeepers could back the Hutus down w/o any fighting at all. Show of force, Ronson lighter trick, whatever she had in mind. The US view of Rawanda was colored by Mogidishu. Anybody remember Black Hawk Down? The Hutus started off right away by killing about 10 Belgian Paras, it did not take much of that to discourage the Belgians and UN. If the same thing happens in Libya next week what do you think our Govt reaction will be?
Really Powers never articulated any real way to stop or avoid Rawandas. Her fuzzy thinking had a lot in common w this current operation, the bad guys were bad, the good guys had NO PLAN. We just can't just put "Gott Mit Uns" our belt buckles and expect things will turn out OK because the bad guys are Bad Guys. Obviously we don't KNOW if it is going to be another Rwanda in advance, we have to make that decision to show up and start bombing or shooting the locals before the worst happens.
What are we trying to accomplish? What means are we willing to use to accomplish that endstate.
It might be well to remember that those 100,000 heavily armed Hutus were chased en masse from Rwanda by the RPA, which, if memory serves, was outnumbered by the Hutus and had no heavy weapons, just light infantry I think. The genociders (sic) had no real heart for fighting. Murderin, yes. Fighting, no.
Carl
Were there more than 2500 of them? Did they actually have to fight?
Powers didn't seem to advocate any actual use of force. I think she was essentially advocating bluff, hard to tell, her wargaming was inadequate. She could have named her article "The Pacifists Call to Arms". Powers logic was about as convoluted as some of the logic at the top here.
It was like this, A CLARION CALL to do what? It was "all paragraph 1 stuff" if you're talking JOPPs or CDRs appreciation, no idea how to make things happen or stop things from happening. We have been able to carry all those lessons learned forward and are now (not) (maybe) (kinda) executing them in Libya.
We get that the bad guys are bad. What do you want to do?
Bearcat: You should probably read about what happens when troops who will actually pull triggers show up in that part of Africa. They tend to part the waters of the opposition like Moses parting the Red Sea. Check out how quickly pillages in Congo stopped after French troops show up. The problem with the UN force in Rwanda was it wasn't allowed to pull a trigger. I think what Ms. Powers was advocating was the moral courage to actually do something rather than standing around pretending that something was going to be done. Real honest to goodness action can work wonders.
I'll have to check up on the relative strength of forces in Rwanda at the time. I do seem to remember reading how the RPA would attack if it met the 3-1 ratio considered requisite for success. No, wait. Strike that. The RPA would attack with a 1-3 ratio. That's what I read. I'll have to check though.
Hey Bearcat, I just looked it up. The RPA was outnumbered 8-1. And they wouldn't engage French troops. Ms. Powers probably wonders if the FAR, vastly inferior troops compared to the RPA, would have had the nerve to engage UN forces.
Carl
Don't put words into Ms Powers mouth. Did you read her Atlantic article? She sounds like a pacifist or semi-pacifist very conflicted by use of force.
You're telling me the Tutsis won w/o the Former Colonial Powers? How is that possible? What happened to White Man's Burden? (now known as White Women's Burden).
Former colonial powers, re-occupying some colony in a peacekeeping mission is always a tough mission situation. You GOT ME when you said the Rwandans probably had more to fight for than the Belgians (and everyone else) because yep they did actually have more to fight for.
Yes, war is uncertain. However, one shouldn't compound that inherent uncertainty with vague policy goals, a coalition that can't agree on what the policy should be, much less the desired end-state, and using the military instrument of national power for a task it isn't very good at: "protecting civilians" through the use of air power with no land forces at all. This takes uncertainty to new levels and should not be defended by suggesting that people may be shirking their duty in pointing it out.
Geez Tom, the dust isn't even settled yet and you're already positing counterfactuals that can't be disproven. As for the other justifications, what's the difference between say Libya and Bahrain? If we fail to intervene there, does Obama also lose face? Does the U.S.? Where does that line of justification end?
Tom,
The complaining colonels are in good company:
"No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it.”
-Clausewitz, On War
Paul,
As you know, I have a lot of time for you and your thinking. (Indeed, as currently drafted, the first quotation in the manuscript of my next book is from you.)
I think that Obama and his aides have been pretty clear in what they think they were achieving. They thought a slaughter in Benghazi was imminent, and they wanted to stop it. So they did. Their aims did not extend much beyond that, so now they are passing control of the conflict to others more committed to a longer engagement.
You can disagree with that goal. But don't you think they have been clear about stating why they did what they did?
Best,
Tom
Tom,
Thanks for your reply. As you know, I'm an avid reader of Best Defense and 'm looking forward to your next book.
However, we disagree about the clarity of our aims in Libya. Is our aim regime change or only the protection of civilians?
If our goal is regime change, then a no-fly zone appears insufficient to accomplish that task.
If our goal is the protection of civilians, then we have left unresolved the fundamental question of who will govern post-conflict Libya. As Fred Ikle wrote in his brilliant work "Every War Must End," the fundamental question in war is who governs when the fighting stops.
Ambiguity is certainly a part of war - regarding the enemy's intentions and capabilities, those of our allies, the effects of terrain, weather, civil considerations, etc. However, ambiguity regarding the political objective of war is not helpful.
As we both know, clarity on post-conflict governance is best achieved before the first shots are fired.
Best,
Paul
Tom,
Thanks for your reply. As you know, I'm an avid reader of Best Defense and am looking forward to your next book.
However, we disagree about the clarity of our aims in Libya. Is our aim regime change or only the protection of civilians?
If our goal is regime change, then a no-fly zone appears insufficient to accomplish that task.
If our goal is the protection of civilians, then we have left unresolved the fundamental question of who will govern post-conflict Libya. As Fred Ikle wrote in his brilliant work "Every War Must End," the fundamental question in war is who governs when the fighting stops.
Ambiguity is certainly a part of war - regarding the enemy's intentions and capabilities, those of our allies, the effects of terrain, weather, civil considerations, etc. However, ambiguity regarding the political objective of war is not helpful.
As we both know, clarity on post-conflict governance is best achieved before the first shots are fired.
Best,
Paul
The US aim was to protect the population of one town for one week?
We went to war for that??
So if we go an ask all the US and Coalition leadership what was the aim, how many answers will we get?
Taking the macro view, I have to believe there was some discussion in the White House of what effect the outcome in Libya may have on the wider wave of protests across the region. Nuts and bolts of the intervention aside, the public presentment is about preventing Col. Qaddafi from moving on Benghazi and letting what would likely have happened occur. In the wider context, that is unacceptable beyond an isolated humanitarian basis too, particularly from a government with Libya's bloody record.
MENA is seeing its first genuine moves towards representative government and civil society as the last vestiges of the US-Soviet satellite strategy and Arab-Israeli war framework crumble. The direction things are headed is in the best interests of the peoples of these countries, but also the best interests of the US. We're practically being handed what Bush 43 spent most of his terms attempting to accomplish -- democratisation. And all that is required in some locations -- Egypt -- are speeches from President Obama. Yemen seems to be taking care of itself. Syria is another kettle of fish, but it is trying to pacify its folks, along with killing some, because Bashar can see the writing on the wall. Bahrain will need more careful attention, but it's some nebulous place between Egypt and Libya.
Meanwhile, Libya is the test for how committed the Obama administration is to the 'new Middle East.' Syria, Saudi Arabia, and even Iran, are watching what actions the US takes. One could say that Libya's significance has little to do with Libya itself and everything to do with the message it sends to the larger historical headaches in Riyadh and Tehran. The effect of in-action and subsequent slaughter in Libya would only compound the skepticism of the US in the region, and make later possible intervention elsewhere even more hypocritical, not to mention practically challenging. Egypt was an example of how, when handled carefully, these movements can serve their and our interests and benefit both mutually.
If the US is seen to 'fail' in Libya, the result could stall the movement, especially if it means Qaddafi stays in power and/or forces a muddled stalemate. It would reinforce Bashar al-Assad, King's Abdullah (Saud) and al-Khalifa, and the Iranian regime's undoubted instincts to crack down on protestors and force pacification upon them, as has already been seen by their actions. The message to these states would be, use force against protestors in your country and we'll back off. Libya is a show of force to demonstrate how serious the Obama adminstration is about the protests across the region. It may not be prepared to intervene anywhere else, but it wants to give al-Assad, al-Khalifa, and Abdullah in Saudi Arabia the impression we may, ally or not.
My question is, forget what the over-arching objective(s) is in Libya, what is the overall objective(s) for the Obama administration as it relates to the protests from Tunisia to Bahrain? Does it want to see where this all goes, chiming in where necessary, possibly intervening, never quite knowing what the end game is? Does it hope to steer this into Iran ultimately, and if it helps reform it in some way, Saudi Arabia too? Is there an overall policy in place yet or is it still on the drawing board as things continue to develop and change week-to-week?
NPR reports the administration is now discussing arming the rebels and sending A-10s.
I think I'm owed a BD "Comment of the Day" device with 2 mustard stains*. My third award is for saying "I never met a no-fly zone that didn't want to grow up to be a full-scale war." And that's what we're creeping toward-- one ambiguous, uncertain step after another.
*Or the alcoholic equivalent. A six-pack of Kronenbourrg 1664 will do.
"Clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war, and how he intends to conduct it"
Check, check.
We've practiced war with Libya a couple times in my memory already -- taking out one of Gaddafi's compounds is fairly routine.
As to the end goal: I see one very limited but significant goal, which was, at worst, preventing the some million Cyrenaicans from decamping to Egypt... at just about the worst time for Egypt's political development.
Can we prevent mission creep now that this goal seems to have been accomplished? Hard to say.
But, to quote another German: "World history... does not come along with the even speed of a railroad train [he was, clearly, thinking of a German train, not Amtrak]. No, it moves forward in spurts, but then with irresistable force. One must take care whether one can discern the Lord's march through history, seek to grasp his cloak and let himself be swept along the greatest distance possible."
what the nations needs... what the nation deserves,
Is a clear and unambigous explanation of this military action in the form of a speech by the president to the American people. It is stunning to me that the president has resisted giving such a speech. Going back to Carter and Desert One, through Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush II, presidents have spoken directly to nation to explain their actions. If I recall, Clinton even did this for Desert Fox, a pipskeak of an airwar compared to Libya.
Until the president makes his case to the people, we are stuck floundering around trying to divine his intention from the many seemingly contradictary statements made by both the president and his cabinet officers.
My suspicion is that he is avoiding exactly such a clear statement in order to keep his options open as events unfold. Good politics, bad leadership... and pretty much par for this administration.
The longer the president holds off on clearly explaining himself, the harder it is for the nation to support his actions... and the louder the chorus of opposition grows.
War has become a mere political tactic to the degree that no explantion, excuse, or game plan is thought to be required:
"Why bother? We'll be in a new war soon. Do you think I'll have time to take from campaigning to explain that one? It'll only confuse your little pea brains. And, besides, what the hell do you people think the political class owes you? Business has us humping enough as it is, and you don't pay as well. So shut up and send your kids, or we'll cut off your food stamps."
This is an intensely weird conversation
First, because the nature of life is ambiguity and uncertainty. War is just a little bit more stressful than most of life. That is enough to make decisions as to whether to go to war things to be approached with caution, and with clear ideas of what one wants to achieve. Those ideas may not be complete, but they can't be based only on scenarios in which everything goes right. The Obama administration is way over that line with respect to its actions in Libya.
Second, because Tom Ricks wrote "Fiasco." He documented, in an entire book, how hopeful assumptions and wishful thinking doomed the American commitment in Iraq right from the start, or even before. Throughout the period covered by the book, Bush administration officials offered up "ambiguity and uncertainty" defenses -- the existence of "unknown unknown" as an explanation for the phantom WMDs, "going to war with the army you have" in response to complaints about military vehicles unable to withstand roadside bombs. In "Fiasco," as I recall, Ricks treated this approach with contempt. About Libya, he embraces it.
He embraces as well the assumption of the worst case without American intervention. Personally, I well believe a victorious Qadhafi would inflict on his enemies retribution comparable to what Saddam Hussein got so good at. But many of them have means of escape -- something that was not true of the Muslims seized and murdered in Bosnia because they were Muslims, or the ethnic Africans slaughtered in their thousands in Darfur because they were not Arab. The Obama administration has declared that preventing Qadhafi's revenge is worth American bombs and missiles, but not risks to the lives of American soldiers on the ground. Obama is showing his moral commitment, but is not going nuts. What sounds like tough-minded realism to Tom Ricks sounds completely nuts to me, among other reasons because it doesn't even prevent the worst case he is so worried about. It just prevents it from happening now, to the side we're supporting. I wonder if Tom Ricks has ever thought about what will happen to Qadhafi's supporters if the rebels win.
Third -- and this part is not really that weird, because nearly everybody does it -- Ricks is for Arab democracy, but does not accept Arab agency. Obama, like Bush, has swallowed whole the utterly fatuous, intellectually adolescent fantasy that Arab governments are repressive and occasionally murderous because America and the West have "propped them up" in the name of stability. All we need to do is "get on the right side of history," support the Arab democrats, and voila'! No more Middle Eastern problems.
Obama would recoil, as Bush did, from the assumption that Arab government reflects Arab political culture, and that Arab political culture has a deep strain of savagery and barbarism. Whether it is unique in the world in that respect is irrelevant. What matters are the implications for American policy. If Arab government is not a product of Arab political culture but the result of American policy, we are responsible for what a government like Qadhafi's does (again, not so responsible that we're willing to get closer than 30,000 feet to the action, but still). The Libyan rebels are our problem.
I understand where Obama's impulses lead him, but don't get at all why this appeals to Tom Ricks. Obama is more thoughtful than Bush, more collegial, more accommodating to allies -- and has made America a party to civil war in a third Muslim country, with no remotely realistic objective beyond preventing something one side might do to the other and no plan to address what happens if something goes wrong. This makes Obama -- what? A more attractive, better-mannered screw-up?
I'll leave to another time the discussion of whether Obama's attacking another country with approval from the Arab League but not the approval of Congress is proper. I'm not sure yet another area of ambiguity and uncertainty is something Tom Ricks can handle right now.
ZATHRAS, a very thoughtful and sensible argument that moves us out of the steppes of Russia back to Tom’s original idea – excellent!
And one I need to re-read and think on.
Thanks,
Tom
I think there are some Gypsies, formerly of Kosovo, who might have a thing or two to say about what US beneficiaries do when the benign hegemon turns its attention elsewhere. But no worries, the Arab League and the Europeans will have it all in hand, I hope.
On your third point, we are facing a shallow understanding of the region's history by many Westerners who count in policy circles and a post-1960s Politically Correct Internationalist world-view adhered to by those who do know the region and who are listened to. These are the sane ones, I'm not even touching the jihadwatch type xenophobes. Unfortunately, via legislative bodies, said jihadwatchies have a voice as well. These flawed ways of looking at the region combines with America's foreign policy ideologies and commitment to the intrusive, therapeutic model of governance creating ongoing foreign policy blunders and debacles.
Undeniably, US intervention has caused problems both by allowing previously repressed forms of behavior to revive or that the society to be changed is radically different from liberal democracies and unfit for liberal democracy. In these cases the response of whoever is backing the current intervention is that goals were always modest, nobody wanted to turn Iraq or Afghanistan into Switzerland. The problem is that it's a damnable lie. What's scary is that policy makers, politicians and commentators probably believe that their intentions were always realistic.
"I think there are some Gypsies, formerly of Kosovo, who might have a thing or two to say about what US beneficiaries do when the benign hegemon turns its attention elsewhere."
That happened under the noses and in the presence of Nato troops.
As per others, a great comment. The point I would make, though, is that Libya can't be seen out of context.
As you mention, many of the Cyrenaicans have 'means of escape' -- indeed, whatever their problems with organization and heavy equipment, it seems that the familiar Toyota technical is due for another round of notoriety.
The problem -- and it's a significant one -- is that the place of escape would all-too-likely have been Egypt. It is hard to say what the impact of a bolus of say, 100-300k Arab refugees would have been within the context of Egypt's current politics. It seems clear it would not have made the life of Egypt's reformers any easier. As it turns out, we've seen this sort of thing happen before in Egypt -- I think it's fair to say that the Palestinian refugee crises did little to promote stabiity and good government in Egypt.
We may or may not want to take seriously the welfare of refugees themselves -- be they FYR Muslims, Rwandan Hutu or Tutsi, or these Libyans. It is worth realizing that at a certain point, these refugee crises become the stuff of high politics: e.g. the continuing influence of Rwandan 'rebelfugees' on the ongoing war in the Congo... or, the potentiality that a Yugoslavian refugee crisis might have had to be handled 'cooperatively' by just Greece and Turkey -- or, better yet, Greece, Turkey, and Russia.
Is this sort of stuff worth our blood and treasure? Hard to say... we are talking imponderables. But we -- and the rest of the world -- will have a much better idea of the character of this Arab revolution when the ink on Egypt's constitution is dry and elections have been held.
It's not that we should 'pay any price' or 'bear any burden' to allow Egypt to reform in peace, but I think there is some price that is worth paying, over the fairly short term, to ensure that nothing too terrible happens on Egypts borders.
Frankly, a major commitment of Egyptian security forces to keep Libyan refugees under control would probably weaken the power of those Egyptians hostile to democratic reform to bring it grinding to a halt. They'd be "policing" protesters and dissidents in Cairo and Alexandria if they weren't assigned to the border with Libya.
Who knows about that. I'm not particularly sanguine about the prospects for democracy in Egypt anyway, but I suspect that within the Obama White House worries about what would happen elsewhere if Qadhafi crushed the rebellion in Libya started to become ex post facto justifications for an intervention decided upon for other reasons about a week ago. This is one of them.
Military leaders still need some notional end state to plan for
Tom,
I agree that it's ridiculous for military leaders to whine about not having clarity in military planning goals, but I suspect the whining reaching a high pitch because they weren't getting even a vague guess as to what to plan for.
The whole Joint Planning Process and Military Decision Making Process, whether you like it or not, still is the way the majority of our military forces try to plan for something like this. And the lead-in phase of "Mission Analysis" gets much easier if you have something from the top to frame your planning around.
You've probably seen or heard of Joint planning efforts that churn on endlessly in Mission Analysis, and that's sometimes because a leader isn't receiving guidance and is unwilling to take the chance of choosing the notional end-state or strategic objective that really should be coming from higher authority.
Maybe there was a clear national interest being communicated internally to help drive the planning process, but maybe the whining you heard was an attempt by military staffers to try to avoid an endless Mission Analysis whirlpool by communicating the need for better articulated national interest.
There will always be people who complain about not having been given enough information to make a decision. If there's enough of them complaining like that, it might be that someone is failing to provide that information, who should.
They are "grumbling" because they are Republicans. Do you really think they would be grumbling if simplistic Bush said that we are going in to transform Libya into a democracy? What end state would they have demanded in Rwanda or Darfur?
What would a colonel say if a private asked him/her the same question after receiving and op order? These guys wouldn't know what to do with an end state if it was written in braille.
General Ham just said it all. He said he wouldn't be able to sleep at night knowing that he had let all those civilians be slaughtered. That would have been the "end state" if we hadn't gone in. This is not a war, this is military action short of war.
If these "colonels" want a time limit, I'm sure that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Tommy Franks could give them a date using the same methodology they used for planning the Iraq War.
Hey colonel, here's an end state, the same one you use for the private, "Shut up and do what you are told."
It strikes me as unfair to criticize military officers for questioning our policy in Libya -- and it is a little patronizing to call it grumbling. There does not appear to be any footdragging on the part of the military to do what it has been ordered to do -- and in fact, has responded remarkably given other commitments.
Compare that to the reaction of the services in the Kosovo intervention where some senior officers arguably DID slowroll President Clinton, and tried to endrun the policy.
You said the task was "preventing a slaughter". Fair enough. But what you are doing is simply delaying it -- and really just ensuring that different people are killed. In the end, a bunch of people are going to be dead, and it is not clear what has been resolved.
It isn't a bar room fight where if you can just separate the brawlers, cooler heads will prevail.
There are protesters getting killed in Syria. How many Iranian "civilian" activists have been garrotted in the dark since their green movement?
The Presiden chose to act on Libya -- but it is a half-measure that balanced an increasingly one-side conflict without necessarily ensuring the preferred side will win, or providing a mechanism to separate the belligerents in a way that would actually stop the killing.
If that is not confusion of war aims, I am not sure what is. And the uncoordinated, strange comments by GEN Ham, ostensibly the combatant commander raise plenty of questions that need to be addressed by someone.
Just to reiterate my comments above:
There's some value to 'delaying slaughter' until Egypt's constitution has dried and a new leader in place.
Consider this: in an ongoing Civil War, Libya's armed young men stay in Libya, while the women and children filter out. In a slaughter, more of the women and children are killed, while the armed young men take refuge (with their guns and technicals) across the Egyptian border.
Part of what we're talking about is the potential interaction between 'Revolution and War.' And, ironically, Civil War in this case may be less destabilizing than Gaddafi's victory.
Gaddafi has two choices it would appear to me, fight on or seek a negotiated settlement allowing him and his family free passage and freedom from prosecution. The latter choice at this time seems unlikely but who can say? Therefore Gaddafi’s best and most likely option seems to be to soldier on.
Air power can be a tiebreaker but only if it is coordinated with boots on the ground. It is a skill that cannot be quickly improvised by rag tag insurgents. It is interesting in the ME how there are ‘good’ insurgents and ‘bad’ insurgents, who look, act, speak, and smell all the same. How do we tell the apart? However, the US, France and Britain have at least in public taken a ground force off the table. Whether these statements are deliberate misinformation or in fact policy remains to be seen.
Obama has already spilled the milk and we are not going to get it back into the bottle. So what to do now that the three key members of this coalition have neatly painted themselves into the corner with a self imposed limit on military force?
Those of us who opposed the intervention from the beginning because of small things like a missing strategic rational, the lack of a debate and an AWOL Congress have clearly lost that part of the argument. As a matter of fact we are getting rather used to losing arguments about war making over the past decade. Anyway, after dipping our toe once again into the water do we turn about and run away from the shark in the sea or do we drop a depth charge right on his snout?
Personally, I would rather leave the beach than suffer another screwed up half-assed effort that ends up bloodily inconclusive and enhances the reputation of the nut case in the bunker. If on the other hand we are going to do it irrespective of common sense then unleash the dogs of war and get the damn thing over with.
Is fairly easy to envision particularly in the way that the conflict has played out in Libya so far.
We know this from history: it's difficult running armored columns along the coastal road from Tripoli to Benghazi, especially under a hostile sky.
Qaddafi knows this, it's why his armored units lurched for Benghazi just before the curtain came down (rather than securing his 'base.')
Given the Benghazi didn't fall, it seems fairly likely that the regime and the rebels will end up staring at each along the coastal road, both fairly convinced that the ultimate objective is logistically out of reach.
This kind of stalemate might be ugly and embarrassing for the watching world, but not, in the end, all that terrible.
It's not grumbling, it's called "asking for direction"
OK, I'll take one more shot at explaining this in somewhat simplified terms. Let's take an operational task as an example.
Say I am Major Schmuckatelly and have been directed by COL Halftrack to write a FRAGO that will order an operation to tackle corruption in the Greenland National Army, whom we are attempting to mentor to assume sole responsibility for the security of their nation. COL Halftrack simply said, "Major S, write up a FRAGO that will help eliminate corruption in the GNA." That's it, that's all he said.
As a good FGO I decide to ask for a little clarification. "Colonel, could I ask a few questions?"
"Why certainly Major."
"At what level would you like to attack the corruption? Corps? Division? Battalion? Company? Where would you like to attack corruption? In SE Greenland? The Southwest? The North? All of Greenland? What unit should I assign this task to? The 82nd? TF Rock? The Anti-Corruption Task Force in the Green Zone? What timeframe shall we give them to start reporting on what milestones have been achieved? A six month review? Quarterly? Annual? What criteria would be suitable to measure effectiveness of the operation?"
"Major," replies the Colonel crossly, "You are intelligent enough to figure all those things out yourself. Suck it up and stop whining."
Fair enough. So I develop a plan to tackle corruption at the corps level and assign a 3-star command with the responsibility for administering the plan. The next day the General calls me into his office after reviewing the draft FRAGO and chews my butt out for not doing what he wanted at all. Turns out he wanted to tackle corruption at the tactical (company and below) level and wanted PRTs to do the work.
Now let's go to the strategic level of developing an OPLAN. If the Colonels are given very little guidance, don't they have a responsibility to ask leadership for more informationto increase the likelihood of the success of the operation? It's not whining to seek guidance, it's a responsibility of both the planners and leadership to provide as much fidelity and detail to the plan as possible. Communication, feedback, and the conveyance of expectations are critical to organizational success. It's not needless doctrine, it's required leadership and followership. If you fail to give your subordinates good guidance, then don't be surprised when they fail to deliver what you had in mind all along. This isn't even just a military problem. The business world is full of examples of failed product lines and services caused by management not articulating proper guidance to subordinates.
I guess since I live with this every day it's seems so obvious. Not sure how else I can convey just how vital good guidance and direction from leadership is to a successful operation. We can't even agree between NATO and the US who has C2 or what the objective of all this is. Any good that has been done in the past week is at high risk to be squandered if this is not resolved. If I am whining when I question this, well then so be it, I am a world class whiner.
I think we pull up our socks and start moving forward.
We don't need a Casus Belli everyday. We sure don't need a Different Casus Belli everyday (somebody already used 1984 East Asia analogy the other day that was, Double Plus Good sung by Annie Lennox).
It is not too late for the President to pull up HIS socks and decide what the national goal is. He needs to keep in mind the Genocide Memsahibs are never going to be happy. If we actually start hurting the COL they are going to decide THAT is genocide. If the Rebels actually prevail there is likely to be chaos and score settling THAT will be genocide. We probably are not going to be able to turn around and start bombing the rebels, and don't WANT to have enough boots on the ground to make things happen or stop things from happen (just in case your wondering if Libya has 6.8M people, one peacekeeper for 50 in pop would be 136,000). We don't want to be in stabilization business that means the endstate is STILL likely to be ugly.
I'd suggest that Getting COL, his family, henchmen out of power is a clearly identifiable goal. Even if there is NO GENOCIDE, if the war goes on forever a lot more people will die in a battle of attrition than would have died in Benghazi. Mr. President put on that CDR IN CHIEF hat, tell us what you want us to accomplish.
(82)
SHOW COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE