You're my best news source for this development. Do you have any predictions for how this works out?

These guys have cards they aren’t showing at the table. No matter what the outcome in the end, there is going to be uncertainty in Libya, and there will be an even greater flow of refugees to European countries bordering the Mediterranean from not just Libya, but former guest workers that see no livelihood in returning to their native homes in the region.

This is a hot button issue in in France, and Sarko is sensitive to it with his upcoming reelection bid, because he knows he must contain the refugee flow within the confines of N. Africa and specifically Libya. Gates must surely know the grenouille along with the other EU countries will seek American help in setting-up, and administering mega refugee camps in the aftermath of this operation?

Gates additionally knows that Egypt cannot handle the problem of mass refugees, nor does it want to, having its own internal problems to contend with, and as a U.S. strategic partner in the Middle East, will seek help with a problem we acerbated, albeit for a noble cause perhaps.

Regardless, America’s involvement doesn’t end abruptly if this operation militaire wraps-up soon,. . .not by a long shot. . .and remember: a long shot is also the name of a guidance and range-extension package for dumb munitions. . .if you savvy?

While I have a whole host of reservations about America's Grand Middle East Adventure 2011: Libya, I think many opponents are spending far too much time searching for every hint of disunity from the allied partners and spinning it as disagreement. There are reasons enough to critique what the Obama Administration and our allies are doing without stretching the truth.

Here, the French minister is saying the "destruction of the Libyan Military" will takes days and weeks not months and he is accurate--the Libyan Air Force no longer functionally exists and given the current pace Ghaddafi's armoured forces are probably close behind.

As for Gates, he is talking about the "operation" which is a vague term but most likely refers to the overarching enforcement of the no fly zone etc. So there is no disagreement nor really any meaningful difference between the statements because they are talking about different things.

Since they are pulling the timeline out of their tailpipes it is OK if they each have a different guess.

Guessing about our objectives and endstate is more of a problem. SECDEF needs to get clear guidance from President and if SECSTATE and the other Principals are in the room that ifseven better. They can have their say in front of God and everybody instead of sneaking over later. If CDR in Chief wants to bail that is fine too, a clear objective.

Allied Force is the template we use. It is not the exactly the same, Nothing is ever exactly the same. Allied Force took about 79 days. John Keegan is a smart guy, he was on TV every few days saying NATO was going to fail. GEN Wesley Clark just held NATOs feet to the fire and kept expanding the target list and grinding away. After 79 days Slobo and the Serbs finally folded. Keegan was on the tube the next day saying that warfare was changing than he thought and he needed to start keeping up better.

We need a clear objective. I don't think 5 week or 5 month time limit is an objective at all. I'd suggest thet getting the COL (like SLOBO) and his Family and henchmen out of power in Libya is that objective now. It is more important than vague deniability (handing off to another HQs).

Where deniability comes in the our guys on the ground providing rebels w weapons, and training, and ID-ing targets for JAC. All the NSC Genocide Folks, UN, Arab League, half of NATO are going to leave the building as we continue to grind on COLs' forces or as soon as someone gets compromised on ground. The ground guys can be CIA contractors if it makes you feel better. That is why support to rebels probably needs to go straight into East Libya instead of into Egypt, Egypt will be hard to keep on board.

Where we need run for the exits is when COL collapses and they are looking for a stability force. The same Nations that would get the refugees, need to provide the stability force to avoid the refugees. You con Saudis into paying the bill: hire pakistani mercs, Egypt, South Nato Nations to provide a teeny tiny figleaf stability force for 6 mos.

I was smiling when everyone was talking about various generals of various genders and how good they were at cooperating, team building etc.... In Panama the CINCSOUTH was a little too friendly w Manuel Noriega so when it came time to bring the hammer down they went looking for a sumbitch to do the job. They cast their eyes around and found GEN Max Thurman, I don't think he was that good at "cooperating and graduating" but they weren't looking for that.

This is going to get interesting?

Didn't it get interesting enough when we bust out of the gates with no plan?

well, I personally will listen to the guy who has so much more experience with every aspect of military/ conflict leadership than the other that it's almost sad. Bob Gates is to be listened to. French Foreign Minister...meh, not so much.