The more I study President Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War, the more nervous I get about the Obama Administration.

I am still thinking this through, but when I read the history of LBJ and Vietnam, I see him looking at the world through congressional glasses. He seems to thinks that Hanoi is like the opposition in the Senate, something to be cajoled and manipulated. He does not realize he is fighting a limited war but that his Vietnamese enemy is not, and that the Communist leadership really thinks and lives outside his known world. They are not into "signals."

I don't think President Obama is excessively congressional in his outlook. But I fear Vice President Biden is. What's more, they've compounded the error by stocking the White House staff with like-minded people, such as a national security advisor who was a lobbyist and a deputy national security advisor who was a Hill staffer. That comes on top of a president, a vice president and a secretary of State who all came directly from the Senate. That is a very narrow, very peculiar range of experience to bring to the task of dealing with the world out there, especially as Congress has been unusually weak in national security over the last 15 years, to the point that if often has been irrelevant to the discussion. I can't think of a national security team with a background as narrow as this one. Why put on blinders voluntarily? Whatever happened to the "Team of Rivals" concept? How about mixing in some academic knowledge, military experience, journalistic savvy, or business acumen? And if they are so good on the politics of it, which is the one thing they should be, how could they screw up Guantanamo so badly? And why have they left a dysfunctional team in place in Afghanistan?

In addition, Hill staffers who move into the executive branch tend to worry me a bit. I remember covering Les Aspin as a defense secretary and being surprised at how little he really knew about how the military operated, especially beyond the Pentagon. I think former Hill people often focus too much on Congress, and sometimes defer to it in a way that I suspect is inconsistent with the Founding Fathers' intent in creating an adversarial system of competing branches of government. In addition, I suspect that some former Hill staffers retain the habit of excessive deference to the boss, when sometimes the job for the head of an executive agency is privately telling the boss he is wrong before he goes public with it. Exhibit A is George "Slam Dunk" Tenet, who gave his president too much of what that president wanted and too little of what he needed.

Most of all, the congressional mentality sees little danger in inaction. On Capitol Hill, there's always the next term. That's not the case in foreign policy, where opportunities slip away never to return. Lost time is not found again. I think Obama handled Egypt well, but he didn't have to do much there except speak well, which he does consistently. On Libya, though, dithering is dangerous. If you wait for an international consensus to emerge, it probably won't. I am not saying we should do a no-fly zone. I am saying there are many other steps we could take, as I have written about before

If we have a foreign policy disaster on Obama's watch, I think historians will zero in on the dangerous lack of diversity in the backgrounds and viewpoints of his key national security advisors. I wonder how Samantha Power, the former journalist who is the NSC's director for multilateral affairs and human rights, stands it.

So, while I haven't turned in my Obama fan card yet, I am not sure I am gonna renew it.

TIM SLOAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

LITTLEMANTATE

12:13 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Who cares what Samantha Power can stand?

She makes Dubya sound like Robert Taft. Is there an intervention she doesn't love? If we followed advice like hers we'd probably have already invaded Bulgaria to prevent anti-Rom violence, or perhaps have a presence in Sri Lanka. Of course, goes without saying we'd be all over Subsaharan Africa.

Narrowness of opinion amongst policy makers? Welcome to America. Take your pick: liberal internationalism vs. neoconservatism. The question isn't whether to intervene or not, it's a question of where to intervene. Because we must "do something" "over there." If you don't argue for intervention you aren't serious, are crazy, or are callous. The first two accusations are indefensible stereotypes and on the last accusation, why don't we just have a massive social safety net if we are so worried about everyone? I'll never understand the cognitive dissonance of so-called conservatives on that score. Government intervention is ok provided stuff gets blown up? Government can't get it right domestically, but abroad it is infallible, provided a suitably bellicose leader runs the show?

I do agree, with Mr. Ricks, Congress has abdicated responsibility for foreign policy, cowards and unimaginative conformists that most of them are.

Daniel Larison over at the American Conservative has it right, these days non-interventionists must argue why the US shouldn't be at war at any given time. The default position for this country is to be at war.

I was wrong, I'd figured it would be at least 10 years before Iraq Syndrome wore off. If Iraq had gone marginally better, or could have been spun better (same for the US economy), you betcha we'd already been in Libya.

I am oddly sanguine about this war. If, heaven help us!, history goes forward and the US isn't involved it might not be the end of the world. I suspect that more than anything else, that is what terrifies interventionists. Events occurring without these control freaks having a hand in 'em? There might be economic pain because of oil prices, but stuff happens, and we need a catalyst to shake up the currently subsidized and long-term unfeasible transportation/residential system. Prestige might be lost, gasp! Because prestige should worry a patriot more than the economic hollowing out of the US. If we don't intervene, perhaps the Sun will still rise in the East,and then, perhaps, interventionists might have to justify their hysteria.

 

HUNTOON

1:02 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Well put, LittleMantate.

Well put, LittleMantate.

 

TOM RICKS

2:22 PM ET

March 14, 2011

LMT, I do!

I have a lot of respect for Samantha Power, who has a track record of speaking truth. I expect the top of her head is about to blow off, working in a White House that is trying hard not to deal with Libya.
Best,
Tom

 

ADMIRAL

8:30 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Only the ruling class would

Only the ruling class would listen to a little war pig like Power. She is nothing but a main stream media hack and liar using the revolving dorr into government. Washington is filled to the brim with this kind of scum.

 

JIM GOURLEY

12:18 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Yeah, Kinda Felt That One Coming

McCain and Obama (before Palin) presented a very difficult choice for me as a voter. McCain was the "lead the military better, but piss the world off even more than Bush" option, while I assumed Obama would be weaker sauce than Clinton as a CinC but would at least finesse us out of the mess as a diplomat. I'd lost most of my faith Afghanistan was a salvagable situation by then, so I leaned toward the "get out with finesse" option. Palin kind of took it off the table.

But now Obama's not getting us out, and we're back to a situation where we need to pack our lunch for 'stan. It's bad to be the guy who's there to turn off the lights and not actually do the job. I think 'Obama's Wars' shows he's a little out of his wheelhouse when it comes time to throw lead. He's got a good foreign policy team, which I think actually does require eloquent management of the Congressional relationship. For the same reason, and as Mr. Ricks points out, he's got a bad military strategy team.

All that said, I'm not sure why extricating ourselves is so difficult. Who the heck in Congress is nailing his shoes to the floor in Kabul? The majority of the American population wants out of there. Half the military wants out of there. The economy wants us out of there. John Q, GI Joe, and Dow Jones-- that's a heck of a lineup. He should have had us out of there much earlier.

Looking at the road ahead, he's going to have the same millstone around his neck come reelection that Dubya threw around McCain's-- a war gone bad. He never looked like a good commander. Now he looks like a chief of state that failed. Not good on the debate floor. And therein lies my reason for withholding the renewal on my card's subscription.

Show me Gingrich or Huckabee with a lot of talk to get us out, some good ideas for the economy (they've had them), and none of the kooky Tea Party rhetoric (and dear God, NOT Bachmann as a running mate), and I'll be tempted to flash a red card.

And if we go into Libya, I'm moving to Germany.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

12:45 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Political seppuku is what is needed

By some connected and "serious" person from the inside. They don't need to say anything new, begin by repudiating American Exceptionalism. Kill the myth and it becomes harder to justify the expenses and losses. Poor Ron Paul has been preaching the truth for decades, but he isn't serious. Huckabee and Gingrich aren't the guys to do this, not intentionally that is.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

1:43 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Deutschlander Jim

Ich erzählte allen, dass ich wäre ein Expatriate nach Deutschland, wenn McCain gewonnen im Jahr 2008. Meine Tochter ist jetzt da und ich habe sie gebeten, eine Aufenthaltsgenehmigung für mich aussehen, wenn ich zufällig gerade sie brauchen. Mai nur tun es trotzdem für das gute Bier. ..And probably so too if Libya operation happens.

 

SOLDIERSDIARY

1:55 PM ET

March 14, 2011

germany

that reminds me of all the people who said they would move to Canada if Bush won in 04....which he did...and no one moved. That being said, you are correct, Germany is the better choice, better beer and bratwurst over here.

 

HUNTER

3:46 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Still waiting

....for that f&*knozzle Alec Baldwin to move to France. I don't like Bush either but at least follow through on your commitments. Those kinds of grandiose statements are best left unsaid.

 

MICHAEL VREDENBURG

7:29 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Australia or Singapore

Geographically, I'm already halfway there. Hot weather, rugby, meat pies, snags and good beer. No-nonsense foreign policy; good economies; decent social programs; realistic immigration policies; modern, updated infrastructure; modern militaries; good schools.

 

JIM GOURLEY

8:07 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Thanks for the Recommendations

GSF and the Mexico/Australia combo made me realize:

1) I never want to come back to Europe as a resident, regardless of how much sense a particular country's government has.
2) How good Mariachi music is in comparison to German metal or techno, which says more about metal and techno than it does Mariachi music.
3) How freaking cold Germany is, and how much I like warm places.
4) How much I don't want to learn a new language.

I therefore retract my last threat. I'll go to New Zealand instead.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

8:26 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Ha!

NZ has always been my first 'threat'. But alas, no one in my family listens much to my grumblings anymore. And, I'm afraid if I went to NZ, my wife would say bye and go to Germany.Wurst und bier it is! But, please send postcards.

 

SOAP MCTAVISH

10:03 PM ET

March 14, 2011

you guys have it all wrong

brazil FTW. any place where body paint is socially acceptable as clothing gets the mctavish vote. plus...the futebol is sublime. everyone wins.

 

JIM GOURLEY

8:23 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Yellow Roads and Painted Women...

Futbol is exactly why I wouldn't go to Brazil. Corrupt refs, oversized egos, and now vuvuzelas. You can have it.

They shot Lord of the Rings in New Zealand. That was pretty much all the advertising they needed in my opinion. Mountains, beaches, it's an island and they speak english.

Funny, now that I think of it, one of the squad leaders in my first platoon was pretty bitter by the time we got halfway through OIF I. He'd done Kosovo and Afghanistan already, though, so he was a bit tired. But he constantly talked about moving to New Zealand. I wonder how many expats are down there.

I'm a pretty short kid. Maybe I could get a job as a hobbit greeter when they open up the new Tolkienworld amusement park. Or I could set up my own falafel stand in the Mordor section. That orcish horde isn't going to rise up all by itself, ya know.

 

OMPHALOS

8:48 AM ET

March 15, 2011

greener grass?

I'm as big a Debbie Downer as anyone around here, and a LOT of smart folks are saying things here (though much more eloquently) that have preoccupied my mind for several years now. But I finished Walter Isaacson's biography on Einstein last weekend, and I came across this quote from the brilliant, retiring physicist--late in his life, in a letter to his son Hans Albert:

"God's own country [the U.S] becomes stranger and stranger... but somehow they manage to return to normality. Everything, even lunacy, is mass produced here. But everything goes out of fashion very quickly."

As enticing as I think running to Oz or Panama or NZ or Brazil sometimes is, I'm gonna hang on, confident that I'll get my country back eventually. Shucks, I just love 'er too much.

Plus, I'm pretty sure there are plenty of meatheads in those other places, too.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

11:15 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Self-imposed exile is always difficult

The soda pop tastes weird, the postal systems are not to be trusted, and, unless you are in wealthy islands like the Gulf states, the selection of deli meats is paltry. That said, if you are going abroad, always consider the availability of good food vs. good beer.

For example, Germany or Britain, horrible indigenous food, better beer on average than the US. Although the US has gotten consistently better in that regard. But, if you are near a doner stand you won't starve.

 

BEARCAT

1:35 PM ET

March 14, 2011

This is Why Sam Nunn Won't Take the Job!

I vote for a staff w broader expertise. How about a Colonial Office? That is why I despair of getting an endstate in Crackistan Iraq, the Brits had more expertise than we. They had orientalists, linguists, real experts and the Indian Army to do most of the fighting and they didn't have much luck.

Ralph Bagnold is my main man more than Gertrude Bell.

Nunn-Lugar is probably about the last serious thing that came out of the US congress on foreign policy.

We're not missing out on any great opportunities in Libya (But Wait There's MORE!!??!!). Things that actually ARE in our National Interest are likely to pretty clear, sitting around trying to dream up some compelling national interest is, well, not very compelling.

If the Arab League wants a no fly area, we have been selling them F15s and AWACS for 20 years, they ought to be able to create a no fly area. Asking the UN Security Council (w Russia and China) is like asking my English Setters to do a no fly area. Not very serious.

 

JPWREL

2:42 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Bearcat writes concerning the

Bearcat writes concerning the Brits in AFland ‘They had orientalists, linguists, real experts and the Indian Army to do most of the fighting and they didn't have much luck.” This isn’t quite accurate. The British after a bad start in the 1840’s basically pursued a ‘frontier strategy’ in Afghanistan to accomplish two things, first neutralize potential Russian influence in that country and second, confine the ‘Pathan’s’ to the highlands in order to secure their communications with Kabul. This required virtually continuous seasonal campaigning for a hundred years but was inexpensive and paid for by India not the U.K.

The British did this very economically largely with the Indian Army (made up mostly of warlike Muslims from the Northwest frontier area) and a small core of professional British regiments. They did not pursue a nation building exercise in Afghanistan nor the area we call Pakistan nor in India itself. The British administration generally outsourced governance to assorted Princes and focused largely upon commerce and administration.

What the British Army is doing today in Afghanistan pretty much turns on its head the previous experience of that army in that part of the world. They basically have become a sub-contactor to the U.S. military pursuing an absurd nation building strategy in the most backward place in the world.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

11:48 AM ET

March 15, 2011

More local knowledge won't help

if the ideology underlying the strategy is flawed.

Many orientalists were missionaries, part of a plan to Christianize the East that ended in failure, although it (unintentionally?) produced the educated, managerial classes of the Middle East and South Asia and the leaders of the antiColonial movement.

 

TYRTAIOS

2:51 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Well hold on here,

I say that LBJ viewed Viet-Nam multi-dimensionally while Obama only sees Afghanistan from a one sided view.

How so? LBJ had a topographical scale model of Khe Sanh built to view from all angles during the siege, where as Obama only gets a power point presentation of significant events in Afghanistan on a flat screen.

The U.S. government is almost to the point of paralysis, except as Tom mentions, looking to the next election cycle, which they seem to find the muscle function to become active in, primarily for their own political survival.

A prime example being Captain McCain USN (Ret) and now Arizona senator: as a freshman House representative, he laid out an articulate case for, and pleaded with Ronald Reagan to withdraw the Marines from their untenable political and military situation in Beirut. And now, years later, he he sees military intervention in Libya as our first option from the get-go?

But hey, some sage advice. I remember being up to my neck in alligators once, and was told to cheer up, that things could be worse. . .sure enough, I cheered-up and things indeed got worse. . .meaning after Gates retires we may only have our vice-president, Yosef bi Den to seek military and foreign policy counsel from.

Hell no I won't go - I've been!

 

KAHOOVER

3:30 PM ET

March 14, 2011

"Team of Rivals"

I suspect that a team of rivals sounds much better when it's being written about in a book than when you're trying to manage them to get an effective policy together and executed upon. Thus, one is going to be tempted to simplify and streamline, giving you a team that isn't going to be very rivalrous. I think that's the outcome we are seeing.

 

WHISKEYPAPA

10:43 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Lincoln

The team is not supposed to be rivalrous -after- they come on board. Lincoln got his rivals on his side so he could keep an eye on them. Seward did a lot of great service to Lincoln. S.P. Chase, not so much.

Walt

 

SOCAL55

6:42 PM ET

March 14, 2011

President Johnson

recorded tapes of phone conversations he had with his advisers prior to escalating the Vietnam war and they are well worth listening to. The similarity to what seems to be motivating President Obama's thinking on Afghanistan is chilling. Even as early as 1964 Johnson knew that Vietnam was more about domestic than foreign policy. He said he wouldn't give a bucket of spit for all of Vietnam, most Americans know little about it and care even less. He did realize that Americans believe they have the biggest baddest military in world history and like being winners. If he backed away from a fight no matter how ill advised the Republicans would beat him over the head with it forever.

 

ADMIRAL

7:19 PM ET

March 14, 2011

In our military jargon, we

In our military jargon, we call such assaults a "preemptive first strike", The US military policy today does not preclude first strike by the United States in order to prevent a presumed attack from another side. That Ohlendorf argument was considered by three American judges at Nuremberg, and they sentenced him and twelve others to death by hanging. So it's very disappointing to find that my government today is prepared to do something for which we hanged Germans as war criminals.

"Our government has gone to great pains to be sure that no American will be tried by any international criminal court for the supreme crime of illegal war-making. In condemning others for that crime we also proclaimed that the law must apply equally to everyone. It is carved on the entrance to our Supreme Court that promises "Equal Justice Under Law." Why dos the US foul its own nest by failure to uphold the principles of Nuremberg which inspired the world?"

Nuremberg Prosecutor, Ben Ferencz

Mr. Bacon, our nation has been taken over by the monsters in the Pentagon and a cowardly press that lies for them and their blood money. They are no different than any other crinimal regime in history. We are fucked.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

10:46 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Come On ARVAY

What's all this stuff about "torture" of Pvt Manning? The guy threatened suicide --regardless if it was a 'joke' or not-- and standard incarceration practice is to remove clothing articles that could be used for the act.
He had to stand outside his cell for morning count and contraband search? BFD. Do you have anything factual regarding "torture"? I don't care if you wish to trash the USMC over this issue, go right ahead. Knock yourself out. But the man is held in incarceration for an alleged serious crime. If he is exonerated, then he is innocent. So what are the facts about the claimed torture?

 

WHISKEYPAPA

10:50 AM ET

March 15, 2011

That's Right

You could argue that winning World War Two was a terrible thing for the United States.

We went from having an aversion to standing armies to our present self-destructive path.

Walt

 

WHISKEYPAPA

11:25 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Impeachment

When the Bush people held Jose Padilla in degrading condidtions, with no access to counsel and didn't charge him with a crime for 3 + years, I went to my congresscritter's town hall meeting and told him I wanted Bush and Cheney impeached.

What Obama is doing is just as bad.

Walt

 

GEO FRICK FRACK

8:34 PM ET

March 14, 2011

my briefest exposure...

...to White House/NSC decision-making would indicate that Obama and his people go for the compromise, split-the-difference, 51 percent solution that will play well with the politicians and the home crowd. Caution and prudence are good for keeping us out of more messes like Libya, but probably prolong the agony once we are balls deep into a fiasco or debacle like Iraq or AFG.

Would be easy to argue that BO reacts, and his people are there to protect him and his political capital. Doubtful that he stands for much of anything besides managing whatever happens to come his way.

Congress and the Pentagon and pundits and grey beards and lobbyists do not lack for ideas and goals and wishes and schemes, so a a weak President and support crew works for them.

Moreover, Democrat Presidents seem to be at a disadvantage, since their patriotism and fitness for the Commander-in-Chief role are called into question even before they get elected. The Republicans have sunk from Eisenhower, who tried to cut down on the military's shenanigans, to Bush Junior who sucked a willing military into his idiotic and poorly executed shenanigans.

 

ADMIRAL

8:49 PM ET

March 14, 2011

Your welcome

It will will be interesting to see where Mr. Crowley goes to work after the two minutes of hate has ended. Your comment on Mr. Ferencz is spot on. He is a man who honors truth and justice. If Mr. Ferencz made the same comments today as an employee of the government, he would destroyed by the friends of our host.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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