France's recognition today of the rebels as the legitimate government of Libya opens the door for NATO intervening in the civil war, I think.

That's not a bad thing. As I said the other day, there comes a point when action is necessary. I was worried that we would not move until there was a mass slaughter-and that might come too late.

But that emphatically does not mean that NATO should instantly move to a no-fly zone. Rather, there are a series of steps short of that to consider first. The point of departure should be that there are millions of Libyans willing to fight for their freedom. Let's first try to figure out how to help them. Here are the eight steps to take, in order:

--Supply anti-tank weapons, as soon as possible. Rocket-propelled grenades are not that hard to fire, once you know not to fire them from inside a room. They also can take down helicopters.

--Indeed, the biggest air threat presented by Qaddafi's forces comes not from fighter aircraft but from helicopters, which are harder to deal with in a no-fly zone, because they can take off and land anywhere. But giving the rebels a few RPGs, plus some .50 caliber machine guns, or their East Bloc equivalent, can be a powerful deterrent.

--Provide targetting and troop movement information, especially from signals intercepts.

--Get food into rebel-held areas.

I would hope that those four steps already are being taken. The French intelligence services actually have a very good reputation for being operationally effective, so I would expect that at least some of this stuff is going on. If not, time for President Obama to get on the phone.

In addition, we should ready the next four steps:

--Announce harsh penalties for any foreign mercenaries caught fighting for Qaddafi, but offer amnesty for anyone who stops fighting now and leaves the country.

--Take very public steps for a no-fly zone, like flying half a wing each into the U.S. base in Sigonella, Sicily (which would handle the western end of Libya) and the U.S. base at Souda Bay, Crete (from which the eastern end of the country would be patrolled).

--Prepare to announce a no-fly zone, but only do it if we are sure we can do it and sustain it for several weeks or even months. 

--As I've said before, if we decide to actually put in people on the ground, like for a snatch-and-grab of Qaddafi, we then would want to do a no-fly zone simultaneously, just to make it more difficult for Qaddafi to move around and to pour sand into the gears of his command-and-control system.

As it happens, Defense Secretary Robert Gates is in Brussels today so he likely will have some interesting conversations on all this.

Getty Images

 

JPWREL

12:20 PM ET

March 10, 2011

All these ideas suggested by

All these ideas suggested by Tom make sense ‘if’ we choose to enter the Libyan civil war via NATO. However, I quote the British Army’s Gen. Richard Dannett, ''If we think some more intervention is right we need to work out what our strategic objective is and make a campaign plan that translates that strategic objective through activity on the ground that can be delivered."

Inevitably, America will by necessity become the key military element in any NATO intervention particularly regarding sustainable air power and logistical support. And while we have a global reputation for having unmatched military capabilities we also have a reputation for not being strategically very clever and generally tone deaf to views other than our own.

My question is how do we define at what point we wave the checkered flag on this intervention and leave? And what happens if a new Libyan government turns out to be as bad as Col. Qaddafi’s a possibility not that far fetched?

 

TYRTAIOS

12:49 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Sarco's got a frog in his throat

Sarko tends to be a rather hyperactive, ubiquitous messenger of valiantly tackling one crisis after the other type guy. But in the end, his countrymen, from farmers in the Provence to the apartment blocks of Paris will tell you, he never delivers.

Sarco blind-sided the EU, and it isn’t clear to me they’ll follow, which may be what Sarco understands, and he’s only playing politics, knowing France won’t be intervening (sort of like Ike supporting France in Indo China), but gets out front quick as a world leader.

However, if we are going to arm the cause of righteousness, let's make sure we know who the righteous are. Again I state, Libya is a country of tribes and sub-clans, you support one, you may alienate another, and in the end. . .then what?

More than likely arming the Libyans opposed to the Tripoli regime, will entail using Egypt or the Sa'uds? That being the case, it's sure bet, they'll arm who they think is good for their own interests, which may not be ours?

 

JIM GOURLEY

12:27 PM ET

March 10, 2011

No. Just... No.

I have yet to see a compelling reason to get involved in this beyond "moral obligations." I also have yet to see an argument that explains how those same "moral obligations" don't compel us to put troops in Burma, Sudan, or back in Somalia.

We are stretched to the max already. We do not have anything that could remotely be classified as a vital national interest in the outcome in Libya. I'm not saying you have to pick and choose your battles... LIFE says you have to pick and choose your battles. You pick and choose, then you fight and deal with the consequences. We are still in the fighting and dealing with consequences phases in two major operations. You just got done saying we've run our star general ragged in Afghanistan. You really want to slap a second-stringer on the butt and send him into another game?

I love all these suggestions, but they're all predicated on a strategy of "anti-Qaddafi-ism." Look at it from the other direction. "These actions are pro-_____." Fill in that blank. Who are you supporting in there? Do you know? Who's in charge? What's his agenda? What's his plan? Once he wins the war, what kind of peace does he bring about? How does your plan dovetail into that? Where's the French dossier on the falafel stand commander? Until I see that, for all you know you're arming the next Bin Laden.

Tom, I'm sorry and I love your stuff, but you're already drawing lines on the map and you haven't even thought about the FOREIGN POLICY issues at hand. I think you've been smoking a little too much of whatever Great Satan's Girlfriend is on. To borrow from her, you are jumping into SOF-insurgency sexercises... without first considering the benefits of abstinence.

The ideas espoused here are the military and political equivalent of the current American economic situation-- you have great aspirations, but you're putting stuff in the cart we can't really afford. Stop being jealous of what the French and British do, and don't let the desire to keep up with the Jones's and the Jaques's put you into a mortgage that runs us bankrupt.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

12:48 PM ET

March 10, 2011

100%

Behind Jim.

This Libyan stuff seems to just be "Heh, we screwed up the last 2, we can easily do this one right/better/easier/sexier/cooler..." Come on! There is no reason for the USA to be involved in this civil war. Eoros can go do what they want; its our chance to be smart and say "NO!"

No American life is worth this miserable excuse for "moral obligation".

 

SOAP MCTAVISH

1:06 PM ET

March 10, 2011

agreed

the bureau of disgruntled 3-shop captains officially endorses JG and GSF on this one

 

COURTNEYME109

1:28 PM ET

March 10, 2011

From the diplopolititary bong

And with heartfelt appreciation und mitt alles respekten grösse gaben to JG, please consider Devil's Advocacy in regards to "Who are you supporting in there? Do you know? Who's in charge? What's his agenda? What's his plan?" meme.

Who cares? Annihilating Colonel Khadaffy, the highest levels of his regime and all their precious assets over a long weekend may indeed ensure 'someone much worse' rises up"

So what?

'Someone much worse' will have tons of stuff to contemplate - about statecraft moderne, R2P Clause and the delightful deets that Great Satan is just over the horizon - as they shovel over the still smoking craters of former regime elements.

 

COURTNEYME109

1:50 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Thanks Soap!

Us minion level minions got to stick together!

 

SOAP MCTAVISH

2:22 PM ET

March 10, 2011

sorry, GSGF

...but my +1 goes to Gold Star Father (GSF). i think we're stretched too thin as it is - and my uninformed gut feeling is that the bigger fish to fry is still in afghanistan.

hopefully this doesn't mean i need to turn in my minion card...i've got too much hard-won experience w/the microsoft office suite of products to be thrown out on my ear.

 

COACH

1:42 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Doors, windows, and always knowing two exits

Leaving aside the question of whether the U.S. (with or outside of NATO) should intervene militarily in Libya, let me throw out two more thoughts on Tom's "...opens the door for NATO intervening in the civil war, I think."

I think there is at least one other political/diplomatic door that would have to be opened for NATO to intervene -- the United Nations Security Council. I do not believe that all 28 members of NATO (operates on a consensus rule) would agree to intervene without a UNSC Chapter VII resolution authorizing it. This means obtaining both Russian and Chinese acquiescence. I believe that is a long shot for a number of reasons, including Russia's ongoing desire to see NATO diminished in world affairs, not enhanced (China isn't too thrilled with NATO either -- something to do with bombing their embassy in Belgrade a few years back).

One more very practical consideration for both the US and for NATO is whether NATO has the capacity to both intervene in Libya (perhaps escalating the scope of that intervention over time if initial measure do not succeed) and sustain ISAF in Afghanistan. Which is the higher priority for Washington and for NATO as an organization and the members of NATO?

Just points to ponder aside from the broader question of "should we" and the directly related question of what our objectives would be in such an intervention.

 

BEARCAT

2:44 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Commander In Chiefs' Dialogue?

I am a lowly tactician, I don't know how the NCA is supposed to work. We seem to have spent a lot more talking about means than ends so far. What was that "Tell me what you CAN do not what you CAN'T do!" supposed to look like? Are they talking Ala Carte ( No Fly, Bomb, Strafe, Blockade, Flambe', Fricassee) or are they talking about end state and risks?

Do we really think that simply getting rid of COL is going to be an adequate endstate for our Political Bosses? Getting rid of Saddam was not adequate, getting rid of Taliban was not enough, what has changed?

We can't snatch the Colonel at all, only feasible COAs are COAs. We can probably cause Colonel to lose to the rebels through means of an aggressive Air Campaign. We can't promise any endstate better than "Momar Gone" w/o large numbers of ground troops for a long long time. Even then endstate is likely to be modest or ephemeral.

We better keep our powder dry and be ready to try to influence events in Saudi Arabia.

 

TWO CENTS

2:49 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Please

When oh when will we ever come to the conclusion that, more times than not, the only winning hand is not to play at all.

But if we do, Tom, what is up with this no-fly zone obsession among the editorial writers and other ignorant (I didn't say stupid, though I probably should have) Washington elite? Do you have any idea what that will cost?

If you're going to do it, which we shouldn't, fly in one night and bomb every airfield in Libya. Job done. Nothing is going to take off after that, especially with Libyan AF maintenance and turnaround. The carrier on station could do it, no problem. We know how to deal with SAM-5 and SAM-6, even if they're up and manned, which they probably aren't. Forget the Europeans--they'll hand us the bucket (empty) to put the fire out. So why not learn from them for once?

Rant over.

 

BOJANGLES

2:59 PM ET

March 10, 2011

3 Reasons to go in

1. The civil war is turning into a regional security issue that affects our allies, (real allies in Europe) and has the potential to destabilize Egypt and Tunisia. - Continued fighting equates to increasing damage on Libya's oil production for Europe which will strengthen the strategic position of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This compromises (albeit slightly) the strategic independence of NATO members as we enter what is likely an unprecedented period of instability in the middle east. Furthermore, if the fighting continues, it will likely reach the national borders of Egypt and Tunisia which could create further instability and possibly a war between countries that are already on the verge of falling apart. If the US is shown to be powerless in this situation (when we have already stated clearly what we want: Quadafi out) it damages our own ability to exert force.

2. Failure to oust Quadafi sets an example for other oil dictatorships (many of whom could soon be in a similar situation). - At this moment, the party which seems to be managing the "crisis" in Libya best would seem to be Quadafi. He has held off initial pressure in his capital. He has thus far prevented international media from producing evidence of genocide or war crimes. He has prevented western powers from getting involved militarily. He has (as of today) rallied his own military assets to a point where they are retaking lost ground. When similar regimes in the region see this, the message is clear. Your best bet to stay in power is to fight as hard as possible using every asset at your disposal because in the final analysis, no one else wants your problem. It also makes them wish they had a WMD deterent as this is the only true protection from US intervention.

3. Failure to oust Quadafi could turn the Arab street against us in a time when they seem to be liking us. - If Quadafi marches to the Egyptian border there will be a bloodbath along the way and afterward as he cleanses the country of dissent. This cleansing could very well go along tribal lines, much as the fighting has. The surviving rebels will hole up in Egypt where they will be accepted as defeated heroes. Meanwhile, details of the body count will start to slip out and the question will arise: Could the US have done something? It will seem very awkward when our answer is: Well yes we could have, but we were worried about the uncertain strategic results.

Everyone says that we shouldn't go in because the power vacume of a post-Quadafi Libya might result in inter-tribal warfare with the possibility of AQ. Well if Quadafi takes back Bengazi, there will probably still be inter-tribal warfare as Quadafi cleans house.

Everyone says that a no-fly zone won't have much effect on the ground because Quadifi's Migs can't hit shit anyway. Actually though, the most useful affect a no-fly zone will have is to prevent military supplies and persons from being shipped to Quadafi from sub-Saharan Africa. Anyone who knows anything about Africa knows that if you have the right connections and enough money, you can buy an army pretty quickly in Africa. That is exactly what Quadafi has been doing over the past week and he will keep flying it in as long as he can.

In other words, this guy is a real pain in the ass, everyone knows we can take him out pretty easily and leave just as easily so why don't we do it already. Don't worry about shit hitting the fan because that has already happened.

Ok now back to looking for work.

 

JIM GOURLEY

3:34 PM ET

March 10, 2011

3 Strikes and You're Out

1. Good eye, bad swing. It affects our ALLIES, not us. Also, these alliances apparently come with qualifications. It's been a long time since 9/11, and hardly anyone in Europe is saying "we're all Americans today." Everyone's getting up from the table in Afghanistan one by one as they sense the waiter preparing to bring the check. We're stuck with that one. I say let them pay for gas... literally. Let's not forget that, while they were spewing crude into the Gulf of Mexico, BP was also doing backroom deals in the Scottish halls of justice to get Qaddafi's boy the Lockerbie bomber off the hook. If that ain't some getting the country into trouble via greed in the best traditions of the East India Company, I don't know what is. They wanted the milk so bad they bought the whole cow. Let them deal with it.

2. You're swinging when there isn't even a pitch. Jugo Chavez is a pig and a tyrant. He's also as crazy as Qaddafi, and just as much a waste of effort to remove. I seem to recall a story about a father and son expressing different opinions on how to remove an oil-rich dictator from power. The dictator's name rhymed with Bottom of the Seine. The father and son's names rhymed with Bush. The story's titled "father knows best." Also, can I trouble you for an explanation of how removing Qaddafi sets a good example while leaving the Saudi royal family in power? Ahmadinejad? The warlords in Nigeria? The Russian Mafia family I like to call Gazprom? You tell me, how many windmills are enough? Because, you know, I've done two and I'm kind of tired.

3. Which Arab street are you living on? Must be one of those gated communities with the House of Saud on the corner. The Arab street is pissed at us, and it has nothing to do with Qaddafi. I could whack ten Arab totalitarians and it wouldn't do as much good for American credibility as stopping one settlement in Israel. There's only one galvanizing issue in the Arab world upon which their governments can marginally rally to, and if it was Qaddafi they'd have removed him from power decades ago. But it's not Qaddafi. That's right, everyone join me and George Marshall-- "It's the West Bank, stupid." It feels really good once you get the hang of it.

As for CourtneyMe109, if you think just removing Qaddafi will be the solution, then you really are advocating the devil. Brzezinski once gave an interview (post 9/11) in which he was asked if he regretted helping the Mujihadeen against Russia. He said something along the lines of "of course not, we brought down Russia with that. What's worse, the Evil Empire or a bunch of stirred-up Moslems?"

I dunno, how do you spell QED?

I'm telling you, in fifty years no one's going to care. Leave it alone.

 

BOJANGLES

12:16 AM ET

March 11, 2011

?

I'll try to be polite as I defend myself.

Our allies aren't in Afghanistan anymore because they realize (like anyone with an objective mind) that there is no way to win there thing without an open ended occupation or an invasion of Pakistan. Plus they can't pay for it. Here's a secret: We can't either and we'll be running for the door around our 2012 election cycle. Btw, when you talk about the Lockerbie bomber getting off the hook as having ANY bearing on what's happening today you are way off the mark.

How does removing Quadafi set a good example? It shows regional dictators facing mass protests that political concessions to their populations will be treated favorably while violent struggles for power will be stopped. Btw, Bottom of the Sienne doesn't rhyme with Saddam Hussein LOL.

The Arab street is changing right now buddy, and they won't be caring about the west bank when they realize they can productively exert their energy to produce change in their own countries. If the US wants to retain the moral high ground then we need to engage in symbolic as well as substantive actions that align with their desires. The sooner the better.

In fifty years this will be in the history books at the beginning of a big chapter called the Pan Arab Revolutions.

/Owned

 

JIM GOURLEY

7:12 AM ET

March 11, 2011

You Lose

You really really do.

You defeat your first point in your defense of it. "We can't pay for it." If you can't pay for what you've got, you can't have any more.

Side note: I didn't say Lockerbie had anything to do with what's going on in Libya. I said that it has bearing on the UK's relationship with the problem. I believe we protested their move to release the guy. If the Brits wanted to push us into helping them, I'd have been up front that their purchase of Libyan oil rights is THEIR chicken coming home to roost.

We want to show regional dictators that making concessions will be supported and that we'll react forcefully to any violent oppression of political movements? Have you heard of a country called Saudi Arabia or heard about the relationship we've had with its rulers for the last fifty years? If you think the photos of world leaders groping Hosni Mubarak are embarrassing, then the House of Saud is ready for its own reality show on MTV.

The Arab street is changing on Israel? Wow, you really are a bright-eyed idealist, aren't you? Bless your little heart.

At least I got my dose of "vitamin Admiral" out of this. Thanks for the laugh.

 

ERIC HAMMEL

3:06 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Trust?

In the wake of going on a solid ten-year run of serial strategic incompetence and bald-face lying, do Americans have any individuals or institutions left that we can trust to lead us into yet another fuzzy-minded military expedition?

If we go, will it be with guidance from another great friend of democracy? A Libyan Karzai or Chalabi perhaps?

Would France or any other EU/NATO nation give a flying fart for Libya if 980,000 barrels of oil per day were not at risk? They're the ones that made the marriage bed with Muamar and kept his despotic rule going these past many years.

 

BEARCAT

3:21 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Quadafi the Problem or Instability the Problem?

Define the Problem!

Is Quadafi the Problem or is Instability the Problem?

For some obscure reason we're assuming that getting rid of Quadafi is going to stabilize the situation. Why?

What is with the weird attachment to No Fly? Why assume it will tip things towards Rebels? When did Air Combat Command become a bunch of pacifists? New motto: "Peace Is Our Profession"?!?!

Oh I get it, we're going to war w/o going to war. Never mind!

 

JPWREL

3:25 PM ET

March 10, 2011

ERIC HAMMEL, your sharp

ERIC HAMMEL, your sharp comments are spoiling the growing war party in both NATO and Congress. You’re like the teetotaler that shows up at some booze soaked revelry.

 

KEVINSD

3:26 PM ET

March 10, 2011

This war could be over in a week

Sarkozy has the right idea. NATO nations should recognize the regime in East Libya and then just target the heavy weapons which are being used by Qaddafi's loyal bodyguard regiments. Given everything we've seen during the past two weeks it seems these are the only forces which are still loyal to him (or else they would have reached Benghazi by now). The ditherer-in-chief is overthinking this one. The US could deploy a few hundred special forces soldiers to coordinate operations and withdraw them the day after the statues fell in Tripoli. Totally agree that the US should do no more (ie. deploy more troops or stay longer)--that'd be a disaster. Or be content to deal with the Qaddafis for another forty years--mobs can't beat tanks and artillery.

 

JIM GOURLEY

3:52 PM ET

March 10, 2011

How Novel...

So, we'll bomb the crap out of their "heavy stuff" from above, just give the rebels some rockets, and be out of there in a week. Nice, neat, simple. Now we just need a name for this strategy...

I know! Let's call it shock and awe!

And then, once there is peace in the valley and east and west get done singing kumbayah, the great falafel stand attendant who became a falafel stand commander, who became a militia commander, who became a general, will then disband his forces, turn control of the country back over to the Senate, and heroically go back to his falafel stand.

Oh wait, that was the script for Gladiator.

How about a more likely scenario. Vendetta killings all over the place, humanitarian disaster due to falafel shortage (because all the former commanders are now generals trying to be the new king), and hundreds of third-party African militias running around stealing every major weapons system that isn't nailed to the floor (and some that are), raping people, enslaving others, other shenanigans. It'll be 1980s Beirut with a twist of modern-day Mogadishu.

And then what will they say?

"This is all America's fault! They did this, and they send no help!"

And that's when we start sending Marines in on helicopters. I give it about a week after that before we start bringing Marines home in flag-covered boxes. Screw that noise.

And I'd like to apologize for the heated nature of my comments, but I'm genuinely sick of this stuff. They're using real bullets over there, guys. Go play a round of paintball and ask yourself if that really feels good. Then take a second to think about what it's going to feel like if the paintball takes your leg off for life. This crap ain't a video game. It's physical. People get hurt.

 

JPWREL

3:53 PM ET

March 10, 2011

KEVINSD, so the

KEVINSD, so the ditherer-in-chief is being a little cautious about killing and maiming those American SOCOM forces you speak of? What a boob he must be not to rush madly into another war with eyes wide shut. Too bad we don't have a real man as President like Bush to show us the way. The great thing about 43 was his 'to hell with thoughtfulness attitude' just swan dive into another tar pit. Easy to do when it is somebody else’s kid that pays the price. BTW, the cost of all this I suppose we will just add to the tab for the other fiascos in Iraq and Afghanistan?

 

TYRTAIOS

5:01 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Who's the regime in Eastern Libya?

KEVNIN, rather than me nit-pick your military option(s), and forget about Sarko for a bit having the right idea. . .as historically, the only two good ideas he's followed through with was bringing France back into NATO, and marrying a wife that's bi-lingual.

My question to you is in recognizing the regime in Eastern Libya, who are we exactly recognizing, perhaps the Al-Zuwayya, or is it the larger tribe up north, the Warfala? I think there's a few more to boot, and of course some sub-clan group with an agenda.

Back to your military option(s), if we want to do a Jawbreaker Operation, we need to get it right out of the starting gate. I fear we are looking for a short term solution, and will worry about the long term results later?

When in recent history was the last time a strong man fell, and the tribes got along together singing Kumbayah?

 

ERIC HAMMEL

4:42 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Boom.

Where's the joy in lining up to send other people's children off to die for no good reason? I see many articulate people caught up in ruminating on such folly, but I just don't understand the careless place from which it comes. Don't mistake intellect for wisdom, passion for truth, or ignorance for an open mind.

I do understand, with deep regret at this advanced stage of life, that there are people out there who have misconstrued the stark depictions of death in combat I have been writing since I was a teen. I labored with quite another purpose in mind: You were supposed to think hard, not get hard.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

5:12 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Five Days Later

I was on the tarmac walking toward the cargo bay of a commercial aircraft. I defied any ground personnel to stop me; I left my extended family huddled a safe distance behind. When the cargo door came open and dress blue clad Marines climbed into the cargo space, I started to understand the reality about to hit me. I was not dreaming, I could no longer control things but only participate. I could not make time go backwards. Regrets of things said-"stay in the Reserves, get a retirement pension", things done and not done flooded over me.

I was commited whether I wanted to be or not. I no longer held the ability to decide, but only to live with things gone bad. Why wasn't I smarter; why didn't I try harder to have something other than this fate fall upon my family and me and my country? Why didn't I have the guts to think hard and act better?

Too damn late. Pull the trigger and rounds go down range. Senseless tragedy if one's aim is just a little off.

 

BEACHGWEN

9:41 PM ET

March 10, 2011

War and misconception..?

A wise woman recently said that journalists should investigate stories rather than put out uncorroborated rumors. There was a lot said about Gaddafi forces attacking protestors when the unrest in Libya began, but the images we have now on TV depict war- more like a coup d'etat attempt that should not be equated with the peaceful anti government demonstrations that took place in Egypt or Tunisia. There are anti-Gaddafi rebels in the streets in Libya carrying all kinds of weapons.

I saw Gaddafi during a street parade when I was very little. In the 2 decades since, I haven't come across another political leader who's been able to command as much intrigue as the colonel did then. For those hearing about Gaddafi's for the first time as a result of the current unrest in Libya, or from his likely association with the Lockerbie atrocity, he'll seem like nothing but a dreaded tyrant. The man however is loved (or at least appreciated) by a whole lot of people, and not just those in his pockets. He's a staunch leader of the OAU and an audacious proponent of African/Arab unity and anti imperialism, often saying what cowards think (remember what happened to Lumamba after he gave the African freedom speech). I find the man strange, but despite his eccentricity, a lot of people look up to him and will support him for a long time.

I do not think it is our place to meddle with Libyan affairs at this time. Even the U.N. needs to find out more about what's happening on the ground in Libya before making any moves. For example, who are these anti-Gaddafi rebels? Where did they get their ammunition from? Are ordinary Libyan civilians, women, and children safe around these rebels, and would Gaddafi forces even have a reason to attack anyone if these rebels did not exist? Some type of mediation, such as encouraging different tribal leaders to come to the table for diplomatic talks and resolutions sounds better to me than handing over assistance to some rebels we know nothing about.

 

SPECTRE

11:36 PM ET

March 12, 2011

Thank god Gates continues to show good sense.

Even if we wind up going in and enforcing a no-fly zone Gaddafi's forces will still have an advantage over the rebels in tanks and organization of fighting forces. We put up a no-fly zone and in a week there will be cries for airstrikes to intensify against ground targets, concentrations of troops, C2 centers logistics hubs and the such.

Sure you could say there are moral obligations involved, and in another world or another time when we aren't tied up in two Arab countries already and involved in something of an economic mess we could go in. But not today, and frankly there have been plenty of "moral obligations" that we've passed up. As much as we like to think we are upholders of all that is good and holy regardless of who or where its taking place our history is dotted with incidents where such interventions on the grounds of "moral obligation" also happen to have a very solid gain for our own interests.

Besides, what is the end-game here? Once we step in its going to be rather difficult to get out. Think about it: We are relying on a bunch of rebels to make coordinated and effective military strikes to cripple Gaddafi and force him to leave, if they fail to make solid gains after the imposition of a no-fly zone what do we do then? Do we just one day just stop flying patrols? Do we take more steps to help the rebels by dropping more bombs? If we go in on the basis of "moral obligations" then we will be bound to enforce this no-fly zone until Gaddafi leaves the country, either on some vehicle or in a body bag. Whereas intervening even more in Libya increases the risk of dropping a bomb on the wrong target, and before we know it we'll have throngs of people on the street burning American flags (and probably/preferably an Israeli one too) chanting "Death to America."

And suppose all the stars align and the rebels manage to push Gaddafi out. Who takes his place? Right now the rebels are united in their common hatred of Gaddafi, but what happens after that common enemy is gone? Will the true democracy activists win or some other force? Some hard-line fundamentalist Islamists who seek to create a sharia? Another dictator or self-styled "president?" What is to say after Gaddafi leaves the rebels won't turn on themselves and embroil themselves in another civil war? How about outside actors?

To tell the truth, the childish side of me revels in this. Look how impotent this world is without US leadership. Everyone is practically shoving and pushing their way to the podium to voice their concerns and to talk the talk about moral obligations, human rights and all that wishwash. And once everyone is done giving their identical two cents on the issue and the question of who will walk the walk comes up the room is silent. Western powers that love to lecture about human rights and all that nonsense now realize that for the most part the vehicle which advances their agenda tends to take the form of US aircraft carriers and other military assets. Meanwhile Arabs who have long resented American intervention are how asking us to act. The Arab League recently just backed the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya. WHAT A FUCKING JOKE. They themselves can't even act on their own words expect the US and US taxpayers to put their silly plan into action? No thanks. After years of your people burning our flags and trying to kill us in Iraq and Afghanistan we've finally gotten the message, you don't want us around. So it is with a great sense of satisfaction we can now reply to their request of a no-fly zone with a: "you sorry fuckers are on your own."

And finally, this is about Libyan independence. If they want it so bad they'd better be damn ready to bleed and die for it. Otherwise what is the point. Jefferson once said that "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." This is Libya's chance to show the world whether or not they truly want liberty.

Back to reality.
Perhaps if certain things on the ground changed, if for instance the rebels organized and showed us they are ready to fight to the end and are determined to throw out Gaddafi one way or another, then we SHOULD act. If the Libyan people can show us an endgame, we can show them US airpower.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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