The impact of Mideast unrest on the situations in Iraq, Iran & Afghanistan?

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Wednesday, March 2, 2011 - 11:04 AM Share

A thoughtful BD reader asks what the fallout from political upheaval of the Middle East will be for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He suspects that there will be less Arab money flowing to the Taliban, and so an opportunity for the U.S. to finish its work and leave. I don't know about that, but I think it is a good overall question. It will have some impact in Iraq, I think -- and already has had a bit. Afghanistan is more distant from the events, and doesn't think of itself as Arab. But if the unrest starts accelerating change in Iran, then that will certainly affect neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq.

Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, had an upbeat take at the Pentagon yesterday (Tues.) on the situation with Iran: "Iran is the real loser here, whether they want to admit it or not. And they've had no hand in the change sweeping the region, except they one they have used to slap back their own people."

A friend said to me recently that the time to worry about Iran getting frisky in Iraq is at the end of this year, when the Status of Forces Agreement expires, and U.S. forces all have to leave. There inevitably will be a dragged-out round of negotiations about the post-2011 American presence, he said, and during that Iran likely will enjoy free rein in Iraq. Unless they are too busy at home ...

Meanwhile, the new issue of West Point's CTC Sentinel foresees trouble on the horizon for the Muslim Brotherhood:

The next few months, however, will see the Brotherhood pushed out of its comfort zone and forced to play a more explicit political role. Given the presence of ideological trends inside the group hesitant to take on this role, it is likely that the requirements of an increased political profile will exacerbate internal divisions. To be sure, the group has, in recent years, developed internal consultative mechanisms that increase its ability to resolve debates while maintaining organizational cohesion. Yet with the advent of Egyptian democracy, this may not be enough. Repression, for all the problems it caused the Brotherhood, served to unify its ranks. When survival is at stake, a group can postpone answering difficult questions. Now, for the first time in decades, the Brotherhood will have little choice but to face them.

As for Libya, old Juan Cole estimates that Qaddafi has lost 90 percent of the country.

EXPLORE:ARAB WORLD, AFGHANISTAN, EGYPT, IRAN, IRAQ

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TYRTAIOS

4:44 PM ET

March 2, 2011

Iran & SFC Snorkel

So, Iron Bottom Sound, Mike Mullen thinks Iran is the real loser here does he? Because, as he states, Iran had no hand in the events sweeping the region. . .the word sweeping may be subjective, we’ll have to see.

May I remind the good Admiral that America had nothing to do with it either, and in fact, may incur higher energy costs, translating into even higher consumer prices as a result. While at the same time, as an oil producing country, Iran stands to reap an up tick in revenue, which will allow Tehran to not only continue to subsidize gas at the pump for its citizens, but have some excess cash for exporting mischief around the region.

As for Iran getting frisky? Though under the Constantinople Convention of the Suez Canal, Iran’s ships of commerce or war have a right to journey through that ditch. Up until now America has been able to pressure Egypt to not grant passage.

That of course just changed as two Iranian ships just transited. Of course I can’t imagine Iran’s timing was anything other than coincidence and they didn't take advantage of this "sweeping" distraction?

Anyway, hold those thoughts about Iran being the real loser here at the moment. I believe we will have to wait a bit to see who the real loser is as events unfold.

However, I admit that others have been right, and I have been wrong, every now and again.

I would pontificate further on this, but I have to get to a meeting with SFC Orville Snorkel because he's up in arms about the Army's new physical fitness standards just announced, and he's worried his lady friend SFC Louise Lugg won't hack it.

JPWREL

5:00 PM ET

March 2, 2011

The ‘CTC Sentinel’s’

The ‘CTC Sentinel’s’ assumption that ‘democracy’ is going to emerge in Egypt is in my view a little premature. There may be a façade of democracy in Egypt but a more likely scenario is that the current plutocracy will continue to retain power if in a different guise. It is the current political/economic establishment in Egypt that has the education, skill, contacts, financial stakes, resources and potential organization to govern Egypt, the enthusiastic foot soldier of the Egyptian revolution in Tahrir Square likely doesn’t.

This small ‘r’evolution in Egypt is in some respect like our own in that the economic system and class/social structure essentially remains unchanged. This is very unlike the large ‘R’evolutions in Russia and China where the economic and social structure was literally torn out of the ground by its roots. On the other hand, if the ‘CTC Sentinel’ is correct and Egypt does trend towards a more representative and legitimate democracy we can be sure that the existing power structure (sans-Mubarak and family) will remain largely intact and that would be no bad thing for the lives of the average Egyptian.

LITTLEMANTATE

12:07 AM ET

March 3, 2011

The man with little has little to lose

Iran isn't a major power, contra fearmongering in this country. If it would not be for oil, who would care whether Iran could bully the city-states of the Gulf or mess in Mesopotamian politics? Their perception is strong because they are large compared to our Sunni clients.

Iran's strength is her isolation. She has been forced to become self-reliant, we, on the other hand, while not primarily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, will suffer as unrest fuels speculation.

If these revolutions are primarily economic, fueled in part by classic third world demographic problems and the destabilizing effects of Wall Street pirates on worldwide food prices then the region is in for a long period of instability. I do not see the political willpower in the US to reign in Wallstreet, despite public opinion, so expect more destabilizing speculation.

I do not wish to disparage or underestimate anger at political repression. But such abstract political concepts aren't what motivates most people. The young man whose death sparked all this was angry because he was economically frustrated.

These young men want a bigger piece of the pie, in my book that counts as redistribution. In smaller countries with large amounts of oil wealth, redistribution works, but in countries the size of Egypt? Calls for redistribution run counter to the Neoliberal and Corporatist ideology that rules the American center. We've been here before in the Middle East, and our propping up of dictators was to prevent the development of redistributive systems. I think it a testament to our leaders' insistence on ignoring history that they can mention Iran, Egypt and Libya in one breath.