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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks
Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 7:21 AM
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Doing a good imitation of Ian Dury, Bob Kaplan and his brother, who is newly liberated from briefing the president for the CIA, have produced a surprisingly optimistic global strategic assessment. Play our cards right, with a combination of restraint and toughness, and we'll be No. 1 for decades, they say.
It is in the new issue of the National Interest, and I'd quote it even if Bob were not my officemate.
What makes them so sanguine? Well, first of all, Iran doesn't worry these guys so much:
In terms of acute threats, Iran is the only state that has exported terrorism and insurgency toward a strategic purpose, yet the country is economically fragile and politically unstable, with behind-the-scenes infighting that would make Washington partisans blanch. Even assuming Iran acquires a few nuclear devices-of uncertain quality with uncertain delivery systems-the long-term outlook for the clerical regime is itself unclear. The administration must only avoid a war with the Islamic Republic.
So, they conclude, "It is simply not in the American interest to launch a military campaign to prevent a nuclear Iran." They call for containment "as the least-bad option." (Fwiw, I agree.)
Also, they think the special relationship is in pretty good shape: "The linguistic and other cultural links between the United States and these other English-speaking countries are so deep that the sharing of sensitive information 24-7 is practically an afterthought, even as the media and politicians highlight the narcissism of comparatively small differences."
They also offer up a few surprises, things I just didn't know. Here are three of them.
First, they say Poland is "is emerging as a pivot state in its own right -- on which the fate of Eastern and Central Europe will rest."
Second, they believe the French are "first-class in offensive cybercapabilities." I was surprised because the French don't seem to me to have much of a presence in the world of computers.
Third, they maintain that the biggest development the American media has failed to really cover is "China's emergence as a sea power." They also warn that we should worry if weak civilian leaders in Beijing start getting pushed around by the PLA's generals.
What cranks them off are Pakistan's generals and civilian fat cats. "Washington's current relationship with Islamabad is unacceptable." They want to give the Pakistanis a hard push, "overwhelming pressure," almost an ultimatum, which they think the Pakistanis would accept: "The country's elite is greedy but not stupid."
George Friedman's been making these exact points for some time now.
Here is a reprise of the most intelligent and astute paragraph of the whole Kaplan & Kaplan essay: “The linguistic and other cultural links between the United States and these other English-speaking countries are so deep that the sharing of sensitive information 24-7 is practically an afterthought, even as the media and politicians highlight the narcissism of comparatively small differences. Of course, the values and national purposes of the individual countries are unique, owing to different geographies and historical experiences; yet that is something America can quietly manage. Given how close the United States is to the Anglosphere in most ways, when these allies resist what America is attempting to do, that should constitute a warning that perhaps the policy coming out of Washington is either outright wrong or needs adjustment. (Canada’s balking in the face of U.S. bullying to hop on board the Iraq War train is an obvious case in point.) The Anglosphere, in addition to everything else it provides, is a reality check that can facilitate American policy making.”
When our most reliable cultural and historic allies begin resisting the direction of American policy (Vietnam, Iraq, etc.) maybe it’s an early warning to take heed and check our ego’s? If Aussies, Brits, and Canadians who are more like us and share more common values than any other more culturally remote nations have doubts then perhaps we need to think again?
simply not in the US interest to launch a military campaign...
The same argument was obvious in 1964, and in 2002-3.
And yet somehow...
The political fact is that both parties have moved to the right in every election cycle over the last decade. Our military is currently engaged in a dozen hot-spots, including covert or opaque action on both sides of the Gulf, and nearly all of Iran's real and virtual borders.
Republicans seeking re-election like the mantle of executive war powers, and Democrats are afraid not to use them, to be seen as weak on defense. Congress doesn't have to make hard decisions on how to pay for an army that is assumed to be on 24 hour standby to defend out 'vital interests' on the opposite side of the globe.
Maybe it's time to quit focusing on which tar baby to sock next, and review Dorothy's take-home lesson.
"because the French don't seem to me to have much of a presence in the world of computers." Tom, where have you been?
"first-class in offensive cybercapabilities" Exists in networks, switches and software....places where metadata movers play...
Remember the names - CapGemini and Alcatel...CapGemini/Ernst & Young..and of course Alcatel/Lucent...Lucent, the former part of AT&T and Bell Labs. They own a lot of stuff on Murray Hill and Holmdale, NJ, places where rocket scientist found the Big Bang, wrote the software for the ABM systems, plus the operating systems (Big Computers language, Linux)...they own all those new switches wireline or wireless.
Bet they knew Rummy, Rice, Cheney and Powell did a terrible can-can in front of the world without skivies on WMD. They saw their short comings! They did not waste a Truffle on our debacle. And they don't treat pirates nicely.
French spend their national service in overseas ops with these companies before they return to business. We go to Ft Polk or maybe Kansas.
Truth be known, the Frogs derive more than 3/4 of their electric power from nuclear reactors, which also makes French nuclear technology one of the most sought after in the world, and along with that, their computer systems for command-and-control.
It would seem only logical, the French would have a cyber defense capability to protect this. . .and where there is a defense, there is most likely an offense capability, oui?
Rochambeau, deGrasse and Layafette....
the Battle of the Virginia Capes and Yorktown....I have lived along their marching routes from Rhodes Island to Virginia where the French march south to Yorktown and stood too many watches on waters where they fought and sealed the Revolution's fate. Or have feed too many children Pasteurized milk with gratitude. We owe them more than terse epithets. We need friends and allies - Franklin and Jefferson understood this.
Well Bill, I can't fault you. However, Boeing was awarded the Air Force tanker contract bid today. We will see how that goes down with the French when we bitch about them selling nuclear technology to the Saudis, and the UAE.
Yes, it will be interesting who will be bitching....
....there was a letter issued by some Southern Governors recently stating their state would lose opportunities if EADS was not awarded the job...Alabama was to do a great deal of fabrication that will go to Washington state. Northrop Grumman was another partner to EADS. Bet there are sore earmarks everywhere. 10 day to protest the selection.
This is classic Gone with the Wind....Tara..
...And the choice could still face opposition from lawmakers on the Gulf Coast, who were counting on EADS’s promise to build an assembly plant in Mobile, Ala., that would have created thousands of jobs.
“I’m disappointed but not surprised,” Senator Richard C. Shelby, Republican of Alabama, said. “Only Chicago politics could tip the scales in favor of Boeing’s inferior plane. EADS clearly offers the more capable aircraft. If this decision stands, our warfighters will not get the superior equipment they deserve.” Source NYT 24 Feb 2011
And to think this party jumper who unseated a POW warrior for his life of largess in the Senate would give a damn about the warfighter's equipment....Rhett Butler was the honest man, frankly.
It is my understanding it was a close call. The French had a very good product, but EAD/S said they would abide by the decision and not appeal it, we'll see. Importantly, the Air Force very much does need to get a new tanker in production, and my spy tells me Boeing's 767 plant in Everett has been hiring-on skilled workers weekly in anticipation.
Incidentally, this is a flat bid and Boeing will have to be careful with production costs or it could become a lost leader for them early on from what I’ve been told. Perhaps this will become a way for all future defense contracting?
BILL KELLER is this the same Jefferson you speak of who waved off the Terror of the French Revolution as incidental? Or is this the Jefferson who excused the dictatorship of the Directory as merely growing pangs?
Jefferson could be brilliant at times but also could be a flaming idiot. Both Franklin and Hamilton had a much better understanding of the importance of alliances and trade. They also both understood that France’s intervention in our War for Independence had nothing to do with a love of liberty. I would also suggest that the debt to France was more than paid back in 1918 and 1945.
I like the French, love French culture and understand they are one of the key underpinnings of western civilization. But not giving them an airplane contract is hardly not welcoming our alliance with them.
Ain't it grand when somebody in the know admits the obvious---our priorities are screwed up.
Last night, I heard all the BS about: Who is going to manage Libya? There is no tradition of civil society.
Excuse me?
Today, we hear that local judges, lawyers, police and firemen, teachers and college kids are simply managing their own traffic. The power company employees are going in the next day. The hospitals are open and operating.
How long can we go on with the delusion that these places just can't function on their own without some USAID contractor shoveling cash to the big shots, and a buck sergeant from Iowa "building capacity" during his one year rotation?
Let's get real and focused, with a realistic sense of tough love, and getting out of the way of local self-responsibility.
The world will always be a mess. So what else is new? (The sky is not really falling).
Three cheers for humans.
Even with real concern about China's growing naval capabilities, failure to pay attention to re-emergence of a new inland Silk Road (pipelines, roads, air routes) along the new resource routes suggests we still run the risk of fighting the last wars, and preserving outdated hegemonies, instead of embracing the future.
Are you sure that their last name is not Kipling? The Kaplan bros. might want to examine the strength of the American dollar before making any rosy predictions. The situation with our indebtedness is much worse than most imagine and the day of reckoning is almost upon us. The sun is about to set on this over-stuffed empire. Get your wheelbarrows ready!
I also had the sense that the piece, in spirit, was the sort of thing which could have been written by a staffer at the Committee for Imperial Defense in 1903. Two problems with these sorts of prognostications: there is a strong temptation to keep trend lines constant and then project them far into the future; it's difficult to predict what the genuine game changers might be.
For example, if there is ever an incident which involves the use of wmds on US soil that'd change foreign policy in ways we can't imagine. My guess, btw, is that the American public would become isolationist and force those views upon the political class. Such an event would be w/o precedent, to be sure, but then so was the huge land war which Great Britain fought in 1914-18--these changes happen.
How might events like the ones currently unfolding in the Middle East play out in a world where China was more assertive, dynamic, and better armed? Would a Mubarak have cut a deal with the PRC? Or would we have undermined the protestors, in fear that China could cut deals with any new regime which might hurt our interests? What about social upheaval in Saudi Arabia? Or China?
"What cranks them off are Pakistan's generals and civilian fat cats. Washington's current relationship with Islamabad is unacceptable. They want to give the Pakistanis a hard push, "overwhelming pressure," almost an ultimatum, which they think the Pakistanis would accept: The country's elite is greedy but not stupid."
Completely true!
Pakistani Army/ISI has tuned U. S. into a pitiful giant
The attempt to patch up US-Pakistan spat over Raymond Davis via a secret military-to-military meeting in Oman proves beyond a doubt as to who US government really thinks has power to move things in Pakistan. US definitely believes that General Kayani can get Pakistani government to do the US bidding in tamping down the tensions over this Davis affair.
So much for this façade of democratic Pakistan that the world has come to accept as being genuine.
However the real problem of this cat and mouse game between US and Pakistan will not be resolved unless the Pakistani Army cuts its umbilical cord to terrorists who have mounted successful Afghan Taliban insurgency.
But previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly sponsoring four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money, diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.
And Adm Mullen had following to say about America’s primary ally in its fight against terrorism, to the foreign news media on 1/13/2011: “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again it, [Pakistan] is the epicenter of terrorism in the world right now. It is absolutely critical that the safe havens in Pakistan get shut down. We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without that. It’s not just Haqqani Network anymore, or Al Qaeda or TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), the Afghan Taliban, or LET (Lashkar-e-Tayyeba), it’s all of them working together.”
So this secret meeting borne out of diplomatic necessity also points to how US hands are tied in a knot by Pakistani Army and ISI. U. S. is forced to mollycoddle Pakistan’s duplicity with billions of dollars in aid - on the one hand it allows US to ferry supplies to US troops in Afghanistan over its soil since it pays billions to Pakistan and on the other hand it shelters, nurtures and supports the very groups who kill those very US troops in Afghanistan day in and day out.
Pakistani Army and ISI have indeed turned Uncle Sam including Adm Mullen and General Petraeus into pitiful giants.
Some things I can agree on, some I can't. On Poland it seems obvious to me that the country is getting more important in Eastern Europe (let's hope that we can avoid repeating the past 200 years).
On China I have to wonder what papers they've been reading. The New York Times seems to have at least two stories on China, Asia, the Pacific and U.S opposition to China every week.
Lastly on Pakistan I suspect they're underestimating just how deeply the nationalism and anti-American sentiment runs in Pakistan, as well as how tenuous the country seems to be (see Baluchistan and FATA for details).
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