Tuesday, January 25, 2011 - 7:36 AM

My CNAS colleague Amanda Pfabe wondered what was on the mind of former CIA director Michael Hayden. This is what she found.
Personally, I wish the general worried a bit more about the damage done to America by the government's embrace of torture as a policy under President Bush.
By Amanda Pfabe
Best Defense All American roving correspondentRetired Air Force Gen. Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA, spoke the other day at Johns Hopkins University's Rethinking Seminar about six security concerns that would keep him up at night were he still in the government. All six, he said, have a degree of imminence to them:
No. 1: Proliferation (specifically concerning Iran)
Hayden noted that answering questions pertaining to Iranian nuclear capabilities is easier to do than articulating how the Iranian government makes decisions. No one seems to know who or what influences policy. The confusion and mixed messages coming from Tehran surrounding the detention of the three American hikers, two of whom are still being held in Iran, in 2009 underscores the fact that Iran is a fully functioning society with a fully dysfunctional government.His scary bottom line: Iran's quest to obtain nuclear weapons is a means to deterring the United States. Attempts to affect their nuclear capability, such as Stuxnet, will simply make them more committed to that quest.
No. 2: China
Hayden was quick to explain that China is not necessarily an enemy, as there are "logical non-heroic policies available to both sides" that can prevent conflicts. However, China's recent international behavior, such as the Chinese fishing boat's collision with Japanese coast guard vessels, can be described as triumphal and akin to that of a teenager whose strength has outstripped his judgment, experience, and wisdom. Several structural problems, including its uneven distribution of wealth, gender imbalance, and environmental disasters, promise to cause growing pains for China as it continues its ascent. Moreover, the legitimacy of the Communist Party governance is based on an unsustainable ten percent GDP growth per year.His interesting bottom line: China recognizes its structural problems, whereas the United States is quick to overlook them and focus on its strengths.
No. 3: Cyber
Cyber joins land, sea, air and space as the newest domain. This man-made domain, though, is based on technological and entrepreneurial principles that make it inherently insecure. Hayden compared the geography of the Internet to that of the north German plain -- inherently indefensible.His worrisome bottom line: The advantage goes to the attacker in cyber space. Fundamental restructuring is needed to correct cyber space's vulnerabilities.
No. 4: Mexico
Over 28,000 people have been killed since President Calderon initiated his war against the cartels. Currently, the United States' assistance has been through law enforcement agencies. Hayden argued that Mexico's criminal gangs need to be treated as insurgents -- even though it is not their aim to overthrow the government -- and the successful playbook used in Colombia needs to be applied to Mexico, which is pretty much what Bob Killebrew and Jennifer Bernal recommended in their recent CNAS report. Furthermore, the relationship between Mexican and U.S. intelligence officers need to be recalibrated in order to increase collaboration.His interventionist bottom line: Mexican drug cartels need to be treated as insurgents and the United States needs to send military assistance.
No. 5: Terrorism
Hayden noted the continuity in counterterrorism efforts between the Obama and Bush administrations, even in such basics as defining it as a global war against al Qaeda and its affiliates. He argued that the dearth of senior al Qaeda leaders caused by targeted attacks in Pakistan stops the organization from committing its signature attacks, in which the operation is complex, the target is iconic and the scale of destruction is massive, such as its attacks on September 11, 2001. While the odds of detecting those high level threats are great, it is difficult to detect lower level threats, such as the attempted Times Square bombing. Furthermore, the nation must shift its focus from killing terrorists, the close fight, to decreasing the production of terrorists, the deep battle. Hayden questioned the lack of programs at colleges dedicated to this issue compared to the plethora of programs dedicated to studying the Soviet Union during the Cold War.His nervous-making bottom line: Americans need to prepare for the possibility that less organized and less lethal attacks will succeed in the near future. By failing to realize that there is a trade-off between preventing these lower level attacks and protecting U.S. civil liberties, a minor tactical victory for al Qaeda will turn into a major strategic defeat for the United States when a hysterical response results in the destruction of a security structure that has been relatively good.
No. 6: South Asia (namely Afghanistan and Pakistan)
Hayden believes that the United States has a winnable strategy in Afghanistan and needs to stay the course. He argued that the two main things that unify Pakistan are Islam and the fact that it is not India. The unifying principle of Islam becomes more powerful when other elements of statehood appear more fragile.His AfPak bottom line: America's willingness to commit to at least 2014 in Afghanistan is positive and political and economic stability are needed in Pakistan.
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EXPLORE:MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AMERICA, SOUTH ASIA, GUEST BLOGGER, INDIA, INTELLIGENCE, IRAN, MEXICO, PAKISTAN, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
Tom,
You hit this one on the head with "Personally, I wish the general worried a bit more about the damage done to America by the government's embrace of torture as a policy under President Bush."
Sadly, no one seems to care.
No one seems to care because it turns out not to be a big issue at all.
What is sad is that in so-called elitist circles, group-think creates these outcries over the use of "torture" with no context of what torture actually is.
When people die under questioning
From physical strain, that's t-o-r-t-u-r-e.
Is that what this forum is now? Cool. I like being an elitist...(sarcasm off)
As a serving Army officer I assure you I know what torture is - by definition and by reality and by morality. These enhanced interrogation techniques - with special attention to waterboarding - meet every criteria that is important to me.
Khalid Sheik Mohammed deserves to be executed and serve his eternity in hell, but he never deserved to be waterboarded 183 times. The tragedy is the latter will likely prevent the former.
There's always been episodes of atrocity in war. It is to be expected, but there hasn't been atrocity institutionalized and authorized, in our country, like this one recently. We'll be digging out of this moral hole for many decades to come, but even that reparation can't happen until someone gets held accountable.
CIA = Certified Idiot Americans
So we spend 100s of million$ and embark on two wars that we are not winning to go after 100+/- Wahabi terrorists ? Only to have them spawn copy cats all over the world. Thats why we have a offensive war machine to maintain 700 bases wordwide (Congressman=Tea Partisto Rand Paul's figure) to support 2 million uniforms and contractors plundering the Treasury. The US Treasury.
Thank you for your service indeed. Enjoy your billet, most lavish socialist in the world.
at the Air Force Academy last spring at their character and leadership symposium. He was asked in q/a about torture. After meandering for a few, he cut to the chase: "[torture] works" (shrugs shoulders).
Now if only I could tell you about the collective *gasp* that went up from the audience. Alas....
You can perhaps wonder why, but no honest person can believe that the Bush Administration made us more safe. Nor Obama either.
Me personally, when someone says "well, there was no attack after 9/11 on Bush's watch!", I say, "well, yeah, the people that ran Bush are also running those other people as assets."
Walt
Excuse me - "groupthink about what is torture"? The answer to what is torture is: would you want it done to you and your family?
Waterboarding - invented by the Spanish Inquisition is torture. Ronald Reagan's DOJ prosecuted a Texas sheriff for torturing prisoners with waterboarding, and put him in prison for 10 years.
Over 100 detainees have died in US custody. In 40 of those instances, the army Medical Examiners said the cause of death was homicide. That's torture.
Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld would be on trial if we had an Attorney General with an ounce of integrity.
The bottom line, “moar war, moar defense spending!”
1.) Considering that we came extremely close to having a president who liked to sing ditties about bombing them, I can hardly blame the Iranians for wanting a nuclear deterrent, even if that is what they want.
2.) Regarding comments on China’s irresponsible behavior, yeah, glass houses and rocks… But the US should do its best to take advantage of a Chinese implosion, but the US should not intervene to protect the interests of American individuals and corporations. For 100 years the name of the game is collective protection of private ventures in risky markets, many of our most egregious actions overseas are the result of this policy. This needs to stop.
3.) Institutions and individuals within the government have been salivating over controlling, reforming the internet for years. While concerns are genuine, I question motives.
4.) Mexico, this point is a real prize. Legalization is simply crazy talk. It makes far more sense and is a more serious, and profitable for some, solution to expand operations in Mexico. As Governor Conan the Barbarian and other folks said recently, if we legalize nobody will take us seriously. At some point a brave enough politician needs to point the finger at the prison industry and too many Americans, who are reactionary, authoritarian hypocrites (Ashcroft and states rights).
5.) What if we study terrorism and the answers we get back aren’t the ones we want to hear? After all, we can’t take the terrorists literally unless we need an excuse to beef up budgets. More university programs sounds like a recipe for more yes men, particularly as these will be grad students terrified of losing funding, more legitimacy for a fairly narrow debate whose boundaries have been predetermined.
Point six brings us back to the beginning, “moar war, moar intervention, moar money.”
On torture, the US' hands were dirty pre-Bush, there is this thing called School of the Americas.
Hayden’s remarks are just run of the mill conventional wisdom one could pick up at a high tone bar. I read Amanda Pfabe’s interview twice just to make sure I wasn’t missing something but even on the second reading Hayden comes off as less than insightful and very predictable. Any run of the mill O5 or O6 attending war college somewhere could have whipped this up on the back of an envelope. If Hayden remarks are reflective of the best judgment of the varsity team at CIA then we have some serious problems.
People feel that way when they start looking for or expecting the "smart" answer, instead of the correct answer. Best and the brightest doesn't mean you make up some new threat that's academically compelling for whatever reason. Maybe you should just credit yourself with staying up to date on important issues. I promise you that if all of America was asked to list the 5 or 6 most important foreign policy issues, you'd get some strange and stupid answers.
Out of curiosity, what would you list up there in your top 6 (and which one would you replace it with)?
I wrote this a while back, but what the Hell.
Cheney At The Bat
Things looked extremely rocky for the Neo-Cons that day,
Clinton was in office, common sense ruled the day.
If only, Cheney, mighty Cheney could take a whack at that
they'd put even more money on big Oil with Cheney at the bat!
So Chalabi proceded Cheney and likewise so did Niger cake,
the former was a devil the latter was a fake.
But to the wonder of all, Chalabi didn't fall,
and over Yellowcake - the Press took in it all.
And when the Neo-Cons saw what had occured
US Troops were on the Iraqi border, our allies were the Kurds!
Then from five thousand Neo-con throats and more there rose a lusty yell;
it rumbled through the Wash Post, it rattled in the Jour-nel;
it pounded through on the mountain and recoiled upon the flat;
for Cheney, mighty Cheney, was advancing to the bat.
There was ease in Cheney's manner as he stepped into his place,
there was pride in Cheney's bearing and a smile lit Cheney's face.
And when, responding to the cheers, he lightly doffed his hat,
no stranger in the crowd could doubt t'was Cheney at the bat.
Ten thousand eyes were on him as he rubbed his hands with dirt.
Five thousand tongues applauded when he wiped them on his shirt.
Then, while the writhing Osama made a tape to ship,
defiance flashed in Cheney's eye, a sneer curled Cheney's lip.
And when the fatal liners had come hurtling through the air,
and Cheney stood a-watching them in haughty grandeur there.
Close by the sturdy batsman the responsibility unheeded sped --
"That ain't my style," said Cheney.
"Three thousand dead!" the umpire said.
From the benches, black with apathy, there went up a muffled roar,
like the beating of the storm waves on a stern and distant shore.
"Kill him! Kill the umpire!" shouted the FOX News faithful on the stand,
and it's likely they'd have killed him had not Cheney raised his hand.
With a smile of Christian charity, great Cheney's visage shone,
he stilled the rising tumult, he bade the game go on.
He signaled to Osama, and there was a tape anew,
but Cheney still ignored it, and the umpire said, "Strike two!"
"Fraud!" cried the Fox News Faithful, and echo answered "Fraud!"
But one scornful look from Cheney and the Christian Right was awed.
They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain,
and they knew that Cheney wouldn't let that ball go by again.
The sneer has fled from Cheney's lip, the teeth are clenched in hate.
He pounds, with cruel violence, his bat upon the plate.
And now Osama holds the ball, and now he lets it go,
and now the air is shattered by the force of Cheney's blow.
Oh, somewhere in this formerly favored land the sun is shining bright.
A funeral moves forward somewhere, and somewhere there's a fight.
And, somewhere men are dying, and little children bleed out,
And there is no victory on Main Street USA --
mighty Cheney has snuck out.
.
Brilliant.
Liberal angst and need for boogeymen is really quite sad.
The truth hurts.
I did do some fact based thinking about this.
"Things looked extremely rocky for the Neo-Cons that day,
Clinton was in office, common sense ruled the day."
PNAC and AIPAC got nowhere with their treason while Clinton was in office.
"So Chalabi proceded Cheney and likewise so did Niger cake,
the former was a devil the latter was a fake."
The Bushies were so freaked out by Joe Wilson they outed his undercover wife, Valarie Plame Wilson.
"Close by the sturdy batsman the responsibility unheeded sped --"
The Bush Administration did virtually nothing prior to 9/11 to forestall an attack on the United States.
"Kill him! Kill the umpire!" shouted the FOX News faithful on the stand,"
People that watch FOX News are idiots and poor citizens.
"He signaled to Osama, and there was a tape anew,"
I think it is at least possible that Cheney knew the USA might be attacked.
"mighty Cheney has snuck out."
Yep.
Walt
Walt
In Marine-speak, the neo-cons should have been in the first wave.
Neo-Cons like Cheney had other priorities when it was their time to consider military service.
Walt
Like going to the store to find the yellow paint for that streak on the back.
Using technology to mask ignorance...
No one seems to speak about what is the obvious concern...we have no real understanding on a broad scale of the physical dynamics of the world outside the command structure be it in war, politics or business. We have automated senses far beyond our ability to analyze content. We are procedural savvy and can work the equipment. We are literate reading the writing and visually perceptive watching the GUI. We know where we are by GPS. We have mastered the manipulation of data into competent reports for opinion manipulation or to back fill a decision made long ago for other reasons.
In short we have thru virtual applications produced B.S. without its real smell. We are satisfying ourselves in producing lies or passing ignorance as science or truth to ourselves without fear of the consequences. We don't think we need a Daniel who in a foreign culture or at the sumptuous banquet can read the writing on the wall: mina, mina, shekel, half-mina.
So maybe we need to ponder as did Jonathan Swift in "The Run Upon The Bankers"t:
A baited banker thus desponds,
From his own hand foresees his fall,
They have his soul, who have his bonds;
'Tis like the writing on the wall. Source: Wikipedia
Tom, do you think a high altitude General Officer or a party flak or anyone in the Senate or House would understand this?
Cancer will spread from Pak to Af, just like in 1996
The thing that must worry not just Hayden but all CIA directors is what Mike McConnell, the director of National Intelligence under Bush told Obama soon after his victory in the November 2008 presidential elections i.e. ‘Pakistan is a dishonest and untrustworthy partner, unwilling or unable to stop elements of its intelligence service from giving clandestine aid, weapons and money to the Taliban‘ according to Bob Woodward‘s book ‘Obama‘s wars‘.
Pakistan has NOT stopped being a ‘dishonest and untrustworthy partner’. Hence Tom Rick’s AfPak bottom line about ’political and economic stability in Pakistan’ should be changed to ‘Pakistani Army calls real shots and its unwillingness to go after Haqqani’s HQN and Mullah Omar’s QST (now moved to Karachi) dooms US war effort in Afghanistan’.
"We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan," Obama declared during an Oval Office meeting on Nov. 25, 2009, near the end of the strategy review. The reason to create a secure, self-governing Afghanistan, he said, was "so the cancer doesn't spread there" as per same Wooward book.
As long as Obama’s US military continues to mollycoddle Pakistan, ‘terrorism cancer will spread from Pakistan to Afghanistan, just as it happened in 1996’.
General Hayden was picked by Bush because he would be a loyal shill and parrot anything handed to him. It's truly amazing that he continues to talk about an Iran nuclear weapons program, evan while his own agency clearly stated in 2007 and also again in 2009 that there is no evidence that Iran is working on nuclear weapons.
His comments about the drug war in Mexico seems to ignore the well over 100,000 dead in Iraq caused by the destabilization of their country or the many thousands of innocents killed in Afghanistan. His philosophy of "Never admit that you are wrong" should have him in house arrest forever.
Do you think, if Afghanistan had been left to the Taliban all these years, there would not have been a great deal of suffering and death of the population? I think it was the right thing to so and stay, until a stable gov. can take over, or the locals want us out.
But what would we do without others telling us how to live our lives?
The Russians were building roads, schools and hospitals and trying to protect their own Islamic republics from Islamic fundamentalism. It did not go well. As Kiplig said:
When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
What, no Egypt? and other Questions
Wonder what Leon Panetta's six worries are this morning...
Does Bouazizi represent another "intelligence failure"?
Will the report from whatever commission eventually reviews all this conclude it was a simply a "Black Ibis" event?
"Predictable = preventable" is a risk management principle... does it hold for foreign policy?
How may fiascoes, snafus, and stupidities must be endured before the American Mind wraps itself around the concept of Hubris?
If China is "a teenager whose strength has outstripped his judgment, experience, and wisdom" . . . what in the world is the United States, having invaded Iraq based on lies and misrepresentations, and having invaded Afghanistan when the Taliban was willing to negotiate turning over bin Laden?
If China is a juvenile delinquent, the US is a serial killer . . . call in the Criminal Minds team.
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