Thursday, January 20, 2011 - 12:27 PM

I was sitting around with my CNAS colleagues the other day, jiving about Stuxnet and other fun cyberwar stuff. I was thinking about how the Stuxnet raid on Iran blurs the line of warfare. That is, no one has declared war, but what happened was indeed a kind of assault.
As it happens, I am in the midst of reading a manuscript by an old friend that gets into a lot of the French and Indian War. One reason that conflict bears that name is that the French (like the English, who didn't do it as well) used the Indians to blur the line, conducting raids during peacetime, with plausible deniability. I didn't know, for example, that the famous and bloody Indian raid on Deerfield, Massachusetts, in 1704 was organized by French commanders and launched from near Quebec.
It all makes me wonder if cyberwar is the Indian ally of the 21st century -- often helpful, but sometimes troublesome, especially if you are on the receiving end.
I did not know about the Deerfield raid. I have an ancestor who was a french soldier around that period. It does put things in perspective, and might explains why the english/french relations remained tense after that time. How many similar lessons from history have been forgotten on american soil alone ?
... to strategery uber-geeks , and other BD readers.
I wouldn't call it an "assault" and I wouldn't use the lexicon of war. I would use intelligence terminology and call it a covert action (if it was done by a country) or merely sabotage (if done by hackers).
This is important politically and legally. The guys who created Stuxnet managed to jack up Iran's nuclear program without killing anyone or blowing anything up. In this context, I'd say that falls squarely into the "friendly competition between nations" category. Cyberwar isn't real war until it kills someone. If Stuxnet was a covert action, it had the effect of an assault (or raid) without the actual business of killing folks and blowing stuff up and thus crossing the line into war. I don't see folks in Iran marching in the streets demanding the death of the programers who wrote that code.
Whoever did it was brilliant. The world is a better place without an Iranian nuke program and without people dropping bombs on Iran to stall this program. I think an old chinese dude said that to subdue the enemy with out fighting was the acme of skill.
...doesn't it? I'd say that the deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure is pretty aggressive, despite the lack of physical violence. If China overloaded our electrical grid or something of that nature, I'd imagine that we'd be clamoring about acts of war.
Depends on the foreseeable outcome
If bad guy X, knocks out power on the east coast using a computer virus and the foreseeable outcome is that hundreds or thousands of folks in intensive care at hospitals die, this is an act of war. Bad Guy X can be China or a terrorist group. If rolling blackouts wreck California's economy, because of Enron, this isn't an act of war. Intent (mens rea) + Act = Crime. Large scale killing + Political/Ideological motive = Act of war (or terrorism).
It ain't war till folks start gettin' killed.
Do You Think Iran Has Really Been Subdued?
"I think an old chinese dude said that to subdue the enemy with out fighting was the acme of skill."
I wouldn't confuse this tactical "victory" with "subduing the enemy."
Deerfield was merely one of a long series of French/Canadien inspired raids into New York and New England in order discourage British (and Dutch) traders westward movement into the fur bearing areas of New France. Such raids began in the mid-17th century and would continue until finally resolved by British victory in the French & Indian War. That war was noted for the high drama of the land engagements but in reality was won at sea by the Royal Navy’s efforts in virtually demolishing the French Navy and its ability to communicate with North America. Unfortunately, the great colonial wars are little known except by historical aficionados that is a shame since they had enormous influence upon the thinking of our founders in the creation of a new nation.
Similarly, the UK used Nat American allies against the Americans
Henry Hamilton, aka Hair-buyin' Hamilton, LtGovernor of Detroit comes quickly to mind. It really was the War of 1812 that finally stopped this sort of thing. But everybody does it, or has been doing for the past 400-500 years or so whether in cyber war, frontier war, Cold War.
I only mention this because the French in the mid-18th century (I don't know enough about the early raids like Deerfield to comment), like the British decades later, were also concerned with delegitimizing their opponents, the British and the US respectively. I don't even want to use the "t" word, but it might apply here as these were actions directed knowingly against soft targets. That is, when speaking about the actions of the Brits and the French. I wouldn't extend the "t" label to the N. Americans, as any community has a right to defend their territory and their very existence.
A big gripe for colonists and their grandchildren down to the war of 1812 era was the presence of Frenchmen and/or Canadians in the raiding parties. That and white renegades, who were believed to be active catalysts. I guess the theft of their lands just wasn't enough to get the Native Americans roused, there had to be more insidious forces at work. The great thing about a conspiracy theory it helps take away the focus from the party generating the conspiracy. Instead of thinking about the questionable morality of squatting on Indian lands, our forebears could ponder Jesuit conspiracies.
I gather the Pentagon has stated that cyberspace is a new domain in warfare. Perhaps I am just splitting hairs while in my opium derived euphoria, but if that is true, than I would describe Stuxnet as an attack, as opposed to a raid, because the worm occupied a selected portion of Iranian cyberspace, and may still?
A raid by the Stuxnet worm, would have been launched and withdrawn fast, (as raids are done) with a limited objective, occupying no cyberspace (cyber-terrain) for any length of time.
Just for fun, a good example of what I would categorize of being somewhere between the description of a raid and an attack, would be during the Seven Years' War, where the Brits boldly gathered forces from England and Canada in 1762, sailing across the Atlantic pond into the Carrbean, all done in secrecy (which the Deerfield raid wasn't) and attacked the Spanish in Havana by surprise.
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Love the analogy Tom but with some misgivings. As with all hsitorical comparissons they don't always lign up. In this case its the issue of actual lives lost and deniability.
For commentors, I'd be careful with using sabotage and covert action without looking up the definition. Speaking of which;
Sabotage: To destroy property or hinder normal operations; "The Resistance sabotaged railroad operations during the war". A deliberate act of destruction or disruption in which equipment is damaged
Covert Action: a secret action undertaken to influence the course of political events, as a government intelligence operation.
Essentially, Stuxnet was sabotage plain and simple. The means and the target are irrelevent in its definition.
I agree that Stuxnet was an act of Sabotage. If a government program planned and executed this act of sabotage, it could also be described as a covert action, as it has influences the course of political events. In this case, both definitions apply. If it were done by hackers, disgruntled engineers, or some other entity, it was mererly sabotage. Companies sabotage each other all the time. My ex-girlfriend made sure to sabotage my romantic prospects with our mutual female friends, after I dumped her.
In the words of Hillel the Elder
"That which is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow. That is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation; go and learn."
—Talmud, Shabbat 31a
"Recognize that your neighbor feels as you do, and keep in mind your own dislikes."
—Sirach 31:15
How would we view a cyber incursion into a nuclear fuel facility by Iran? Don't even talk about Dimona, let alone fly over it and take a picture.
Soft power versus percee de sang?
Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which Israel is obstinately not.
The prince is judged by who he surrounds himself with, and in that regard, "Those who by valorous ways become princes, like these men, acquire a principality with difficulty, but they keep it with ease. The difficulties they have in acquiring it rise in part from the new rules and methods which they are forced to introduce to establish their government and its security."
I suspect the U.S. chose a new method as opposed to the other option that surely would have seen Israel attack Iran, dragging America into the percee de sang - the bloodletting?
I don't equate israel with Iran, Pakistan or India
While ceding your point re a bloodless slowdown at Natanz, I do point out that both the US and Israel would consider any messing with nuclear operations to be nuclear terrorism. Par'lous close to an act of war, demanding a strong response.
Heck, even an industrial job action in the US has been categorized as nuclear terrorism, according to an old contact at SAIC, in the fight for security dollars.
What goes round comes round, and that's a lot scarier re STUXNET than fresh rumors from the French-Indian wars.
"What goes round comes round, and that's a lot scarier re STUXNET than fresh rumors from the French-Indian wars."
Yes.
Scarier still in the longer term, with each one of these gratuitous and futile gestures against Iran, we set another brick in the foundation of Iran-PRC ties. While we pursue our obsessions, China has just agreed to finance and help construct huge new additions to the Iranian rail net, including spurs that connect the Iran-Turkmenistan border with Tehran and then to two railheads along the Iran-Iraq border. One day we'll see direct rail from Beijing to Beirut--with all that that implies--and we'll still be tilting at Iranian nuclear windmills.
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