Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 11:10 AM

The Army's chief thinker about the future dropped by the office yesterday to talk to CNASties about how his service is changing. It clearly is down with advances in information technology, which I would expect. "We're cranking out apps" for soldiers, reported Lt. Gen. Michael Vane. It is teaching soldiers differently, with, he said, less "sage on the stage" and more "guide on the side."
What the general had to say was almost all reassuring. The Army is thinking differently about leadership. It knows it needs to push down certain skills to lower levels. It also needs to develop leaders who can handle ambiguity, historically a weak point for American generals, according to a psychological survey I was looking at the other day.
My worry is that it is one thing to say it, but another to do it. Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, and people who know what they are talking about talk personnel policy. It's been nearly 10 years since 9/11, and I really don't see any significant changes in how the Army thinks about raising the force, training it, or promoting it. Why does there seem to be no relationship between command performance in combat and subsequent posts? I will believe that the Army is really responding to its strategic and operational shortcomings in Iraq and Afghanistan when I see changes in personnel policy. For example, why do generals appear to have tenure these days, with removal occurring only in response to zipper problems or other moral embarrassments? How about rewarding success and punishing failure? You can talk about change all you want, but until you change the personnel policies that create the internal incentive systems, you probably won't be able to institute sustainable change.
They are running the least successfully Army in our nation's history. Humility. Reform. Or STFU.
I'll ask the question; so who should be fired and why?
The faster info moves to the top
The faster info moves to the top, the greater the urge to micromanage and edit the line officer's choices into conformity with a picture that makes perfect sense to the REMFs.
SLA Marshall wrote a WW2 vignette describing an intact communication chain from the flag down to the Platoon LT, where the point of the advance is stalled at the edge of a field of interlocking Japanese fire.
The LT dies a moral death, demonstrating why he won't order men forward, without advancing the general's plan.
Wonderful.
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...is that the Army thinks it's its own customer. It has become in its mind a self-licking ice-cream cone.
Combat performance: Hard to judge?
Duck: Agreed. Particularly down range. Short of some UCMJ violation, we all "did a great job". We know that isn't true.
To my knowledge in the Iraq and AFG wars, only one General has been fired: McChrystal.
I think one issue with "rewarding failure" is the method we use to judge it vs. success; also consider variables.
Was GEN Petraeus more successful in Iraq than GEN Casey? Yes. Does that mean that Casey failed? Some would say no, he just had a less effective method than Petraeus. Others would say that yes, he absolutely failed because he saw that his method didn't work and kept with it. "Stay the course". Everytime I heard anyone say that I wanted to puke...as if there was only one way to fight in Iraq. The variable to consider is how deep were Rummy's hands into Casey's execution of the war? Should we blame Casey for everything that happened during his tenure? Maybe that's not fair. Others would say he's got four stars and that's what he gets paid the big bucks for. The same could be said for the current vice-chief Chiarelli. He was 1CD commander and MNCI under Casey. Was he a failure? Hard to say. But he was there when it wasn't going well...and whatever changes he implemented didn't work, obviously.
Then there are good "second chance" stories, like GEN Odierno. His first tour could be considered by many as a failure...at best not effective at all. But his subsequent posts as Corps and MNFI commander were considered successes. We could all say the he "learned his lesson". Conventional wisdom then would say it's wise to continue to count on the guys with experience because they'll improve the next try, over the guys with less experience, hoping they come in with some new, great ideas or approaches.
I have cursed many, many General officers while I was on the ground in Iraq. Particularly in 05-06 just prior to Odierno's arrival. I was initially pissed that Casey wasn't fired and forced into retirement. I've cooled off since then and realized he's probably a pretty good General; he just wasn't very effective as MNFI commander. Maybe that was his fault, maybe it wasn't. I believe that Rumsfeld's removal, not Casey's, that was the real reason why we were able to change our approach in Iraq.
At a lower level, there have been some Battalion Command level firings...but none to my knowledge for tactical failure; mainly for misconduct or some other reason not related to unit performance.
IT IS the Army's mentality right now that as long as you don't screw up ethically or legally, then you will keep your job. Your tactical performance has nothing to do with promotion, because like I mentioned to Duck: The Army believes that every Soldier does a good job; which we know of course isn't true...we should be the hardest on ourselves for command performances in combat. But like I said, who will hold the measuring stick and what criteria will they use?
Thanks,
DD
Additions:
1. I realized that I just wrote an entire post clouded in the very ambiguity that Tom was talking about.
2. Obama fired the GEN that was running AFG when he took office. Can't remember his name.
As someone who served from 1978 to 1998, and came is a an E-1 and retired as a Captain, I can agree 100%
The Whole Military, to include the Contractors, has become a type of "Special Olympics" where everyone gets a medal.
David D. McKiernan
Good work...I was too lazy to use the Google Machine
McKiernan and Casey couldn't ask for more men
McKiernan and Casey couldn't ask for more men, without bucking their commander's intent that they operate under 'economy of force' rules. In McKiernan's case, Petraeus was clearly backing Odierno's position in Iraq, protecting the surge gains (and our strategic position in the Gulf), and angling for his own guy McChrystal to take the ISAF command. McKiernan couldn't get 10,000 men shifted from Odierno's FOBS, while McChrystal got CENTCOM's backing to press for 60-80K (and tour extensions), and settle for 40K.
Casey's command in 2006 was the rearguard in the political fight to prevent a Republican revolt over the Iraq fiasco. Sen's Hagel and Warner were openly threatening to pull the plug on Bush's war, and it was clear the post-election climate would be even worse.
To judge a theater commanders performance, we need to see the communications history. No one's seen more than Petraeus' wanted to reveal, which stops at the mask of the general. Certainly George W isn't talking yet.
"To judge a theater commanders performance, we need to see the communications history."
No. We need to see the progress towards victory. If that seems a bit nebulous, it's because 'victory's' definition has become evanescent, a vaporous ghost time-shifting down the road. That alone condemns the whole lot of losers.
In nearly all modern situations, the idea of trial by combat has been set aside. God help us if we add war to that list.
responsibility and accountability
perhaps the Army could pick up a few ideas and/or lessons from the Navy in terms of responsibility and accountability.....the Navy has been firing/relieving quite a few skippers lately.....UMM
Why is 9/11 such a watershed moment for the US Army in terms of organisations/procedures etc.?
but what followed.
9/11 itself has less to do with the Army than the operations that followed it.
Had we chosen not to invade Iraq and not to use conventional forces in AFG, nothing would have changed for most of the Army, outside of the small SOF community.
However, the trials and tribulations the Army has gone through in Iraq/AFG exposed our personnel system, organization (MTOE), training, manning and readiness at exponential levels. Tom just scraped the surface. There are a lot more layers to peel back.
Where's Shy Meyer when you need him?
The Army is not going to be rescued by outside forces.
Though badly in need of wholesale reform, there's no Goldwater/Nichols/Skelton to ride in to the rescue. It will have to be the most difficult kind of reform: bootstrap. In the most risk-averse and brain-dead of the Services, one in which dusty doctrine substitutes for thought, this is a tall order. (Maybe that's another reason for a draft: to get some open minds and agile actors into the Army.)
The inside-fix that maybe sorta might could get it started is in blogs like this, and at SAMS, and - can't believe I'm saying this - Carlisle: Never Underestimate the Power Of A Crank Letter! Young Turks, uninspired by the current leadership and fed up with their outfit's failings, need to lead a quiet revolt in print and on the web. Go ahead, blurt out the truth in public. Either that or see the mission deficiencies and derelictions and defeats that have become the Army's norm be ossified. For those who fear the career consequences I would offer the motto of the Navy fighter pilot: "Death! But never look bad!"
Its the whole Military to include the Contractors.
They have anointed as "sacred" by the politicians, not matter what they do. And they seem to want to do as little as possible!
I have seen Officers who made it to Brigade and higher staffs who would not have made PFC in my squad 30 years ago. All they have to do is "thier time" at certain job to get the ticket punched to the next promotion. The fact that they did the job right wrong or indifferent does not matter.
The contractors are the same way, when DARPA had the competition to create a vehicle that could "Drive it self", several defense contractor spent millions to win a Million Dollar Prize. While 2 Germans won it for less then $200,000 ($120,000 if you do not take in the fact that VW donated the car.)
The New "Intel Database" to track terrorists? The DoD spent several million to Beltway Bandits and got nothing. One 30 something set the whole thing up with Wiki shareware (costs-FREE)
We spend Billions and do not anyone accountable!
...with Casey was that it was obvious what needed to be done. Many of us knew, because he had already done it.
In 2003, post-invasion Iraq was chaos in terms of "what do we do next?" mentality from both US Forces and Iraqis. I was fortunate to be in Mosul with the 101st, under the command of GEN Petraeus. In seemed that in the absence of orders (from Sanchez...after Franks conveniently hung it up...saw the writing on the wall, maybe?) Petraeus was going to do SOMETHING. Down at the company level, we started getting tasks to conduct assessments on everything you could think of: neighborhood and village leadership, infrastructure, security, schools, etc. Then after the assessments, we started getting the money and making improvements; small at first, but grew exponentially over a short period of time.
Most importantly, above all else, the units lived in the areas in which we were responsible for. We had a small compound inside of our AO in an abandoned warehouse. This was beneficial for many reasons, but primarily because we could easily patrol our area and combat bad guys who were up to no good. We were also emotionally invested in the people in our AO because we saw them everyday. It was easy for local leaders to come visit us on our tiny compound without the mind-numbing minutia of trying to get them onto a gigantic FOB. If we had an issue in the area, we could get there easily and quickly. There were so many reasons our location was vital to the security and well-being of our assigned area of responsiblity. But that all changed as we prepared to leave.
A Stryker BDE from Lewis replaced us. Immediately upon arrival, on the first day of RIP/TOA, they informed us that they would be living on "the FOB" and not on our compound. We asked first what a "FOB" was and then where it was. When they told us that their entire BDE was consolidating on one big base on the outskirts of town, we were all shocked by this insanely bad tactical move. I remember telling one of their captains: "if you leave here, these people are going to suffer...and when you come here periodically, you are going to get your ass kicked". It made sense to us not to give up ground that we were holding and certainly not to abandon the people we had come to know and protect. I remember the looks on the local leaders faces when they found out our replacements were NOT going to be located close. It was one of panic and of betrayal. I felt pretty bad about it. In the end, 2/2 had a pretty rough tour and the reason why is quite obvious. Initially, I blamed BG Carter Ham, who was the commander of TF Olympia. Surely, I thought this was his bad idea. But I understood later that it was a theater-wide decision, most likely by Rumsfeld. Our concerns were voiced, but no one listened.
And what do you know, three years later, we went back to doing it the way we had in the beginning. But after catastrophic losses. A shame. And certainly something that should keep many men wearing stars on their shoulders up at night.
were in Mosul at the same time. I was in B 3/502.
I think a lot of the push to get American forces out of town and consolidated onto the super-FOBs was an early knee-jerk response to the IED threat. The transportation units and logistics contractors were spending many hours a day on the roads running hot chow and resupply out to the company camps in town, and making contact more than the rifle companies were.
Keeping with Abazaid's theory that US forces were an "irritant" in Iraqi society, between our convoys in city traffic and our little camps in every neighborhood, shortening the supply lines by pulling everyone back onto the big base camps was a logical move.
That isn't to say the whole premise wasn't completely flawed. After our move off Camp Zed in early December, we kept the same patrol sectors, so we had to commute off the airfield, across the Tigris River bridge, and back to our old neighborhood. 45 minutes of driving each way to run a four hour mounted patrol.
And since more soldiers slept close to the big chow hall (the same one that was suicide-bombed after we left, killing a former 3/502 officer who was then with the Strykers), and more soldiers were eating hot chow and going to MWR and such compared to living in abandoned buildings, I bet some genius down in Baghdad in LTG Sanchez's JTF-7 thought "We're improving quality of life for our soldiers, that's a good thing!"
I've always been reminded of a fictional NVA officer's line from the Kent Anderson novel "Sympathy for the Devil". "The Americans were amateurs. They were far more concerned with survival than killing the enemy."
Tom's first line says it all:
"The Army's chief thinker about the future ............... Lt. Gen. Michael Vane" These pages are full of the musings of better men, yet the Army entrusts the post of thinker in chief to just about anybody on the three star bench. God help the United States Arm.y We now have an Lake Woebegone assignment system, where no one is seen as below average. Its no wonder the GO ranks are soon to be reduced by fiat. Unicorn
Another question is how the military handles new innovations such as robots and drones. Has the military managed to come up with some kind of guiding strategy on using robotics and have they admitted that drones are probably getting more kills than piloted air craft in Afghanistan?
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