Here's a report from my CNAS colleague Jessica Ramirez, who the other
day got up way early to go have breakfast with old Ryan Crocker.
By Jessica Ramirez
Best Defense breakfast club
Amid the smell of bacon and eggs at the Center for Strategic
International Studies, the former ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, gave his
two cents on Iraq's way forward at an event entitled, Iraq's Future: Stability, Security, and U.S. Policy. His
presentation included a laundry list of some of the internal challenges facing
the Iraqi government, or what passes for one. Among the challenges discussed
were Kurdish-Arab tensions, economic and social development, internally
displaced refugees, an imbalanced civilian-military relationship, and internal
border disputes. As Crocker pointed out, "overlaying all of this is a profound
trust deficit." Fear continues to dominate the society at every level and
fosters a "you or me" mentality with an aversion to compromise or brokered
solutions. This all-or-nothing game can be seen in the current gridlock in the
formation of the Iraqi government, now stalemated for the seventh month.
Crocker averred confidence that the formation will happen, and when it does the
product will be headed by Maliki. However, the more interesting story will be
what concessions and political arrangements will be made to get from here to
there.
Moving from internal challenges to regional issues, Crocker
assessed, "It's a tough region and the neighbors are looking for payback time."
Among the regional influences on Iraq are Iran, Turkey, and Syria. These
adversaries are counting on the United States to lose patience and when it does
they will be there to fill the vacuum.
The consensus in the room was clear: Iraq is not getting the
attention it deserves and it needs to return to the forefront. This view
sharply contrasts with that of the 99.999% of the U.S. population that wasn't
in the room, with 70% of Americans saying they do not want to hear about Iraq
anymore. This is counter to the fact that nearly 60% of Iraqis believe it is a
huge mistake for the U.S. to pull out of Iraq. These startling percentages need
to be addressed by the administration and Congress without delay. Any
hesitation now will translate into severe future implications, especially in
terms of the budget and shrinking public support. It is evident that Iraq would
like to see a visible U.S. military presence, the U.S. play the role of a
deterrent to other regional players, and U.S. military advising and training.
In order for the U.S. to even come close to fulfilling those needs the administration
needs to ask itself what priorities it is willing to give up to continue
commitments made to Iraq.
Whether you tend to be a glass half-full person who is happy
with what has been accomplished by the Iraqi government in terms of oil
contracts or a glass half-empty kind of person frustrated at the continued
sectarian tensions and inability to form a government, the bottom line is that
it is imperative the U.S. take concrete steps to ensure its commitment to Iraq
now and in the future. The debate over whether we should've or shouldn't have
gone into Iraq is trivial. We did. Now we need to prepare to stand by Iraq in
its path towards stability.
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