Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 10:53 AM

A friend of mine on his 6th combat tour in recent years writes:
It is violent. More violence than I have seen -- even beyond the 2006-2007 violence in Iraq. It is huge IEDs, serious, complex attacks with weapon systems, etc. We have one INF CO with 10 KIAs and we are into this tour just 3 weeks.
I read and see news about reconciliation, etc but at the tactical level that is not the case. There is no question that the TB has embedded itself in the countryside and shadow governance is at its best.
My take on this is that the TB see their position as one of strength and are reinforcing that strength in certain areas. Why? In my opinion, it is a race for strength to come to the negotiations table. It is Negotiations 101 in college.
We must get away from the verbiage of central governance and openly accept that Afghanistan is quintessentially a decentralized society that is further fractured by decades of conflict, complex tribal relationships and geographic terrain that prevents strong central governance -- particularly when there was never strong central governance in the past. Under the TB, past dynasties, and the Russians, there was never strong governance. Tribal justice reigned and the people were content.
However, we need to openly communicate to 'our world' that we must fight and gain control of the key roads to Kabul in order to open commerce and transportation and in parallel build the capacity and capability of the ANSF to secure and control those key arteries -- and let the rest of the country lie in rest. To uproot traditionalist and isolationist communities and extend governance outwards to harsh terrain can only shift focus away from what we can control -- the roads to Kabul.
A really big problem is the Pashtu belt which lies astride the PAK-AFG border. If we can get to the negotiations table in a position of strength with acceptable political parties (to include some or a lot of TB), we might then find ourselves in a stronger position with AFG and PAK to target extremists/AQ in the Fatah, etc and destroy them -- we would be the stronger coalition. Remember that the Pashtuns make up 50 percent of Afghanistan and 100 percent of the insurgency -- and the Taliban. That should help put it in perspective. The Pashtu is not really the enemy. They do not want foreigners and extremists among their tribes -- nor do they want us here.
It is the extremist that wants to destroy the Pakistan current state as well as U.S. and other western interests outside of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This terrain provides the safe haven and opportunity for foreign fighters outside of the Pashtu and Afghanistan and Pakistan to target the U.S. as well as Pakistan, which extremists consider a U.S. ally, or puppet. Reaching an acceptable solution among the TB and Pashtu will allow us and Pakistan to target and rid the Pashtu belt of AQ and other extremists -- our Commander-in-Chief's main objective.
Again, it is violent and I strongly believe we are in a phase that requires bargaining from a position of strength -- and that strength lies in those key lines of commerce or roads, not in the countryside. In the end, the lessons must be drawn from the 11 Soviet-U.S. Geneva negotiations in the Sov-AFG war that only ended in failure for the Soviets. Soon, we must gain the position of strength and initiate a compromise and enforcement negotiations approach. And we cannot gain a position of strength under a planned timeline. Ask the former President Gorbachev of the Soviet Union and when he said, "we are out in 9 months and we will not be linked to the stability of Kabul." That did not work out. Look where we are now.
The boys and girls here in uniform continue to amaze me. The hardest part seems to be for leaders to demonstrate faith in our mission; yet we try -- the recent hubris over senior military leaders under our civilian authority just made it all the harder. Americans need to believe that the threat to the U.S. and western world is real and we must stay the course focused on the above. It brings an acceptable balance, I believe."
...but if the roads in to and out of Kabul are the key to this campaign, what is the value in mucking around in Helmand Province?
I appreciate the counsel of experience from Tom Ricks's correspondent here, but it seems to me that what he thinks needs to be done and what Gen. McChrystal and Gen. Petraeus think needs to be done are some distance apart. Given that they and not he have designed the Afghan campaign, I wonder whether this correspondent should be as worried as he seems to be about deadlines.
Incidentally, his assumption about the relationship between Pashtuns -- a tribe numerous in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan -- and the al Qaeda types is open to question. His assumption about the interest of the Pakistani security services in wiping out terrorist groups they have sponsored in the past is doubtful as well.
Interesting. Spent the weekend on Coronado at a Navy wedding and while there my son explained to me the latest training evolution they just completed at the SEAL training grounds around Niland, CA. The troop experienced three weeks of absolutely stunningly brutal training leaving everyone with pulled muscles, sprung ankles, lacerations, lost weight, and battered gear. The rational is that in preparing for their up coming deployment to Af/Pak they expect and will train for a rising level of violence such as intense ambushes sprung by the TB. Consequently, casualty extraction and counter attacking and establishing their own ambushes seem to be the order of the day for special warfare types. As the author suggests at the end of his comments I wish I could think that all this effort and sacrifice was worth it and this war was making us a better country. Unfortunately, the military and political high command seems to be devoid of credibility in their prognostications and rationalizations. Thus, it saddens me to see these wonderful young SEAL’s supremely confident, eager and gung ho making a supreme effort to do the best they can do and yet my heart tells me we have blundered into a bottomless tar pit.
JPWREL all your points are well taken...but you (and many who frequent this forum) ought to pay heed to those final comments. This Marine I am assuming recognizes that the storm is truly in effect, and yet still he knows we must stay. Cognitive dissonance? Irrational? Nope, just a supreme, serene recognition of what the stakes are here.
Nobody wants to go to war, well not the sane among us. But this is a fight I think we can ill-afford to lose.
"Ill afford to lose".... what?
Hunter,
Not meaning to be snarky, but what exactly will be lost? Is the West in some sort of existential struggle with Dar al Islam (ala Huntingdon), or at the very least "radical" Islamists? Folks in government do this sort of vague gloom and doom routine, or else they go full on Cassandra with nightmarish visions of our cities burning and bearded men armed with ak47's driving their toyotas around a bombed out American mall, pick your city, Midwest heartland, because "we didn't fight them over there." Neither the vagueness or the full on drama aids the cause of supporters of this war. If the powers that be really want skeptics to support the effort then they will have to do a much better job of making their case (you hear this Mr. Gates?). Make the case point by point, like one would to an adult or an equal. And be prepared for when folks realistically accept that there might be a bloodbath in Afghanistan and reply, so?
Interventionists will also have to deal with the Bush engendered, but Democrat approved, idea that we are in this deep existential fight for which most people shouldn't have to sacrifice a bit. The excuse that the people don't want to fight is a weak one, Roosevelt faced the same issues. In fact, Roosevelt had a harder fight selling overseas interventionism to the populace. People tend to forget that many of the parents of the Greatest Generation were cheering on Father Coughlin through the 1930s. Things have changed, and theoretically, most Americans aren't anglophobes, nor anti-semitic, nor isolationists. People give lip-service all the time to the troops, the war, and fighting them over there. Well, the government needs to call these patriotic hordes on their bluff.
Finally, interventionists will have to deal with the discrepancy between anguished pleas about abandoning Afghan women and the tactically sound it's the tribes, Gant-esque policies that reaffirm patriarchal, gerontocratic Afghan communities. The Taliban didn't invent the burqa, rampant domestic abuse, and a host of other cultural pathologies that plague rural Afghanistan. Nor can you blame everything on the past 30 years of war. Perhaps Afghans could take a lesson from Iranians or Russians and attribute all the authoritarian tendencies in their societies to those nasty Mongol invaders.
I say all this because right now what seems at stake is the reputations of a lot of folks, multinational corporations' profit margins, and American's status as hegemon, non of which are remotely the equivalent of an existential threat, nor even an economic one, provided one isn't a DC villager or a member of the investment class.
Osama Bin Laden (whose most recent known base of operations was Afghanistan) has clearly stated his goals of re-establishment of Sharia law and a Caliphate. He has a grudge against the US for our offenses both real and imagined against the Muslim world. He clearly declared a war that extends beyond nation-states to a nebulous terrorist organization. He also stated that he expects said war to last generations.
The Middle Eastern peoples, regardless of our perceptions of them, have a long history and an even longer sense of that history. We are a babe in the woods in comparative history and we have a populace who is unswayed by even the most recent history of (9-11 or the Gulf oil spill) to change any of our basic behaviors. With just over 230+ years of longevity we have no sense of the world and no regard for other peoples. (Here's a trivia bit- in 1986 I went to my mother's hometown in Germany, guess what birthday they were celebrating? 2000th! Even Germany is young compared to the Middle East though)
Given these basic set of precepts and the fact that it is somewhat clear that Taliban/Al Qaeda base of operations has shifted to Waziristan and its neighboring tribal regions of Pakistan I think it is highly likely that these so-called terrorists - I say so-called because these terrorists are no different than our own soldiers in their perceived righteousness of cause and they all are using war as diplomacy by other means - will eventually secure the means of weapons of mass destruction, oerhaps stolen directly from their Pakistani enablers. To me it is a virtual given that this will occur sometime in the not so distant future - let' say, in relative terms, the next 100 years. I also assume that given their stated goals and 'beyond brinkmanship' that the flash to bang time between their securing of a nuclear device and using it will be almost nil. The fact that they view martyrdom as a real + adds to the reality of the fear.
NYC, Chicago, or Washington D.C. or some equivalent site will go up in a plume of nuclear flame, blast and dust...it's really just a matter of time. As they often said about terror in Great Britain - you have to be lucky 100% of the time to prevent an attack, we only have to be lucky 1% of the time to execute one. Given these basic assumptions, I for one want to maximize the span of time until they get that nuclear super weapon in their grubby hands. I am a selfish bastard, I want to make sure it doesn't happen in my lifetime and maybe my children's - that way I don't have to sit back and wonder how very stupid we were to overlook long term security for some perceived short term gain. We can do that in part by maintaining a very real presence and discernible pressure on their lines of communication and their organization as whole. As much as we are tied too the tar baby, the tar baby is tied to us. It sucks but it beats the alternative.
If you believe my assessment unrealistic or alarmist well you just ain't been paying attention, now have you.
Hunter,
I must first take issue with the sort of colonial apologetics. Americans have no sense of history? I always find it annoying to see the combination of American nationalism and American colonial inferiority complex in so many Americans. It's a weird, adolescent, self-flagellating, passive-aggressive take on countries older than ourselves. Ask a German were their family was living in the 18th century. I've been to Germany, I already know the answer. They are a Modern people surrounded by old stuff. Regarding the Middle East, they don't have history, they have a hazy perception of the past due in large part to what Westerners have taught them in the last 200 years, combined with some good old fashioned European style romantic nationalism from the 19th century, and some folkloric elements, anecdotal bits, and poetry from the Islamic centuries which never fail to overawe the unsuspecting foreigner. I think it not surprising that to this day, modern Middle Eastern and C. Asian secular humanities are still joined at the umbilical cord to the West. And this isn't collegial give and take. I found visiting ruins in Oman to be a most unsatisfying experience for this very reason.
Do you think the Iraqis remembered the Babylonians or Sumerians? Or, for that matter, that the Turks remembered the Hittites? And as far as the statues at Bamiyan, those became of interest to the Afghans only after Westerners started coming to see them. Most conservative Muslims would tell you those ancient times were the days of benighted ignorance, not worth of study. Paul Theoroux, traveling through India was shown "Mughal" buildings, of course these buildings were built by the British, but why hurt the guide's feelings. The only consistent exception to the rule of historical amnesia compensated for by outright mythology was and is Iran and its occasional outliers in C. Asia and S. Asia, and we are hellbent on destroying the Iranians. But my rant is just trivia and it isn't that important.
What is important is that it is clear that you believe we are in a deep existential struggle for our very survival. Ok, then why doesn't the West go all out? Why is Osama Bin Laden still alive? Why is it the one civilian who took it upon himself to hunt the villain down being treated like a criminal or a madman? Do you not see the disconnect between a threat of annihilation and the message of, ok folks keep moving and shopping, nothing to see here, here's a yellow ribbon. I kind of understand the idea, the citizenry are to be a nation of cheerleaders, but cheerleaders aren't willing to get dirty. And if the US is unwilling or unable (or unworthy???) of committing the time and effort to convince the Afghans et al to police themselves (though why do the hard work when Amrika will do it for you?), then the next logical step would be to tell Osama et al that he can have the Middle East, all the lands of the Dar al Islam are his for the taking and institute draconian immigration rules in the US. If you want to make sure your grandchildren survive then this seems to be the most logical step. Otherwise, just nuke the place. In the future, perhaps that nuclear mushroom might go up in London, Tel Aviv, Tehran, or Moscow (on a side note, I would be really interested to see how China would deal with the Taliban) but what can we do? You make destruction seem almost inevitable unless we fight a war the likes we haven't see for a generation. And neither COIN, nor Biden's CT plus whack a mole ain't gonna hack it. But we already have shown that we fight for profit, careers, and ideology in no certain order, but not survival. No Hunter, I have been paying attention, and have been consistently underwhelmed my whole adult life.
Middle Easterners on history- "we have a long history, you American children just wouldn't understand." Americans- "you are so right, we are just babies, shoot I don't even know my dad's name. You know, one day in England I was walking by two guys in pointy shoes making out in front of a Norman keep, and I thought, we've really got nothing on these people. BTW, when do you guys crack that cuneiform script and the hieroglyphics" Middle Eastern, mutters something, "shall I quote you some poetry or show you my picturesque grandfather?"
The message the US should be sending to its European and Middle Eastern allies "root little pigs (I know how offensive the imagery is, btw) or die. Mr. Bin Laden, we would be very interested in negotiating an oil deal with your caliphate, quick dodge that! Avigdor is on a rampage!"
While I mentioned Osama - I should have elaborated further (but email is so unwieldy). It isn't just the one boogie man, it's his myriad followers and passive supporters. And I didn't predict nuclear holocaust, just one bomb will be all it takes really.
I don't really buy in to the "there are on 60 of them left", okay what about their various subisidiaries. Indeed don't really care about Al Qaeda they are just the most easily recognizable name in the brands of radical Islamo-fascism.
Nor did I predict that the Caliph would invade the U.S. with AKs in hand.
Is it an existential threat to our existence as a nation? Nope. Well, maybe. If the mark of 9-11 was the huge disruption in the global economy when 2 towers fell and world air travel was suspended, then I suppose when ALL OF Manhattan or downtown LA is incinerated (or even just contaminated by a relatively unsophisticated dirty bomb) that we will just bump along fine. Not real likely, but possible. So perhaps even that one bomb isn't an existential threat to the nation but it certainly will be to the 10,000 - 100,000 that likely will lose their lives in an instant.
As I said, I am a selfish bastard. I only want to make sure it doesn't happen on my watch.
We underestimate our enemy to our own detriment. They are tough, tenacious, they have stated their goals in no uncertain terms, they have stated if given a nuclear device they would use it...most substantially they have stated that they are in it for the long run - which is a concept Americans can't seem to conceive of.
To the other poster - regarding our ahistorical perspective. I've been all over Europe - they have long memories. Been to Bosnia-Herzegovina they have really long memories. Been to Egypt, Iraq and Kuwait....recall that their biggest intramural gripe is the schism between Sunni and Shia - delineations we find undiscernible. They are the American equivalents of Presbyterians fighting Methodists over separations of minsicule doctrine. The difference is they are still killing each other over it - or doing other outwardly crazy things - as perceived by the 'ugly' American who is more preoccupied with Dancing with the Stars than any real knowledge of their planet. (e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PICT0871.jpg )
Take them at their word and Osama is a figurehead
Understood, but the point remains, Faulkner showed some initiative
and the Islamists have been clear, they want us to leave the Middle East. Which is why I said, let's just leave and maybe that bomb might go off in Moscow, Tel Aviv, Beijing (if the Uyghurs are up to snuff), etc. See, I'm selfish as well, I don't want to use my grandchildren as debt slave collateral so the Karzai boys can live to see another day. This is what Michael Scheuer has been saying for years. They don't hate us because of the Kardashians, they just don't want us around. It isn't all Americans' fault, the Europeans are just as bad for local relations. Nothing says improved relations like leathery Germans on a beach or on a sex tour. And don't even get me started on the Russians.
Regarding the flow of oil. Whose to say who is better to deal with? A bunch of religious zealots or corrupt militaristic kleptocrats? I can tell you one thing, though, the unforgivable sin as far as the West is concerned is that nasty nationalization of resources. But is it so bad, in the end, you might have to pay a bit more for oil by dealing with some of these characters, but the costs are offset by not having to maintain a bloated M.I.C. And as far as it being communism, socialism and communism are bad, but fascism is kind of worse. I still can't decide if we are more communist or corporatist in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'll even go one further on you, I think that if the US ceased to patrol international waters thus raising the cost of shipment, it would benefit US workers. And if Somali pirates would make the cost of coca-cola go up, I can't see as that would hurt anyone.
Regarding historical memory, I've traveled as well, and what I encountered is less a case of remembering and more a case of being reminded of the past by politicians and educational systems as needed. And don't just take my word for it, that was what Chris Hedges felt about the Balkans. And historical awareness, I repeat, is once again a very 20th century cobbled entity combining elements of local folklore, some actual local history, lots of misunderstood Western studies of local history, all united by (in the case of the not extremely religious) a romantic understanding of Volk based identity that Wagner and other proto-Nazis would have appreciated, and Robert Kaplan managed to mistake for ancient awareness. Because of an interest in history and a sadomasochistic desire to hear local perspectives, I've been subjected to such historical barrages from well-meaning Europeans, South Asians and Middle Easterners (Turks are the worst) in which I felt like a wounded coyote trapped in a 100 page conversation in a Michener novel.
A little bit about what AQ has been up to these days
Doesn't sound like just 60 dudes to me:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2000862,00.html
I bet if we ignore them they'll go away.
An Online Magazine! OMG! We're doomed!
I repeat, I'm not the one advocating the status quo, here my friend. I'm saying let's
1) Pull out of the Middle East (and a host of other places)
2) Offer to submit to the international court, you know that rule of law thing we like to talk about. Use it as a good faith gesture. Until the day comes when a man like Cheney or Rumsfeld can be exonerated or convicted in an international court of law, all our claims to uphold int. law, mandates, etc., are a crock of crap. Sure in many ways the UN is a bully pulpit for Arab hypocrites, witness Sudan, won't argue with you there. But since we gleefully participated in the whole Balkans snafu, kind of makes us hypocrites to say there is one standard for Americans and another for Serbs and American trailer trash (Abu Gharaib).
3) Pull back and by oil from whomever. Oh God, you say, deal with Al Qaida? Well, hoss, to date more of my relatives lie in the cold, cold ground thanks to Germans than to Al Qaida, so if we are willing to let bygones be bygones with all those ex-Nazis in the West German government why not with the Islamists? Moreover, we still cheerfully deal with and defend that collection of back-stabbing (from the standpoint of the West) degenerates (from the standpoint of anybody against hypocrisy, intolerance, institutionalized misogny, child sex slaves, and evil) euphemistically known as the House of Saud, who are indirectly responsible for a good bit of terrorism. You never know, an good old fashioned religious nut might actually make for a more honest economic partner than the bunch we deal with. And as far as evil, our Turkish friends until recently were ok, no matter what butcheries they engaged in (actually the quandry that the Turkish-Iraqi -PKK Kurd issue presents to US political mythological spin-meisters is more than a bit amusing) But one big problem with the Middle East is that it is a part of the world still not completely controlled by New York and London-based usurious lending institutions, and some folks have a problem with that.
4) You might say that this will show weakness and lack of resolve. I'd counter that our current policy shows the American people to be a bunch of knuckle-dragging fools who don't mind getting ripped off on a regular basis by our political masters and whatever foreign snake-oil seller like Chelebi or Sakishvilli that comes along. You think people respect that? We aren't tough enough to really put the fear of God or Uncle Sam in the Dar al Islam. And it ain't the hippies' fault. To do what really is required, ala Mongol style, would give the lie to George and Laura Bush's democratizing, its about the little girls meme. And we will never do what would need to be done to defend ourselves against such a powerful enemy, because we aren't in an existential crisis. And if the time ever comes that Al Qaida can deliver a wmd, and not kill themselves beforehand, see my comments below for who to thank.
The US populace needs to be defended because of the bone-headed policies of our elites who refuse to punish each other, and who then charge us for said defense. It's a lovely, cyclical, exploitative process that will last until the parasite has killed its host. Everything else is just pouring bladder water on my footwear and telling me its precipitation.
Hunter, I deeply respect your point of view, you have walked the walk and from what I can tell are the type of officer that I could have readily and thankfully served under. As a family we support the Team members and their families in every conceivable way we can. Personally, I keep my doubts to myself and away from Coronado preferring to vent them here in a forum composed of people like you who are experienced, informed and conversant. Actually, I find my experience on Wall Street useful in while hoping for the best also maintaining a healthy skepticism. From hard experience I learned to doubt the ‘experts’ in favor of forming my own conclusions. If I was going to lose I would rather lose because of my own inadequate thought processes and not because I relied on another persons flawed analysis. I may be wrong about this war, time will tell, but what I don't think I am wrong about is that our country is in real trouble.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Concur with your Wall Street analysis. (BTW shocked that you would incriminate yourself so, fodder for future manipulation/trolling on my part - just kidding, a little).
Also concur with the "country is in trouble." But thankful for young men such as your son who stand on walls and do harm at night so others may sleep soundly in their beds. For all the naysaying about the AVF we should all be grateful that we have such a team that bleeds, sweats and cries on our behalf. They don't get half the credit or grudging attention from the American populace they deserve. Your friend G.S> Patton said it best "The attitude of the American people as evinced by the press and the radio is such that I am inclined to think that I made a great mistake in serving them for nearly forty years."
As always my very best wishes to your SEAL, his comrades and all those others fighting the fight.
Also from G.S.P: "This war makes higher demands on courage and discipline than any war of which I have known. But, when you see men who have demonstrated discipline and courage, killed and wounded, it naturally raises a lump in your throat and sometimes produces a tear in your eye."
Can Petraeus tame Kayani's Pakistan?
After having denied existence of Mullah Omar’s QST umpteen times on its soil, now Pakistan suddenly finds a way to bring about reconciliation between QST and Afghan government! The most breath-taking part of this is that US is NOT holding Pakistan responsible for sheltering, protecting and supporting Haqqani’s HQN network and Mullah Omar’s QST network all these years while those networks have been causing daily deaths of US/NATO soldiers ever since 2002 even though Pakistan was SUPPOSED to have joined US fight against same Taliban back in 2001!
Defense Secretary Robert Gates justified Pakistan’s terrorist connections, alluding to a “deficit of trust” between Washington, DC and Islamabad. Mr Gates also said that there was “some justification” for Pakistan's concerns about past American policies. Gen David Patraeus, rushed in with an apologia for his Pakistani friends, by claiming that while Faisal was inspired by militants in Pakistan, he did not necessarily have contacts with the militants which is proven to be wrong. Both Adm Mike Mullen and Gen Patraeus fancy themselves to be “soldier statesmen” a la Gen Dwight Eisenhower. Adm Mullen has visited Pakistan 15 times and Gen Patraeus no less frequently. Both evidently have high opinions of their abilities to persuade Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to crack down on the Haqqani network in North Waziristan and the Taliban’s Mullah Omar-led Quetta Shura.
All American officers in southern Afghanistan know that they can not prevail in the ongoing military operations, unless Taliban strongholds across the Durand Line in North Waziristan and Baluchistan are neutralized. Adm Mullen and Gen Patraeus evidently do not want to acknowledge that hard options have to be considered if their soldiers are not to die at the hands of radicals, armed and trained across the Durand Line. This is where rubber meets the road for the famed General.
According to Afghan Taliban commanders’ interviews with Matt Waldman, a Harvard Professor, the Pakistani ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences the Taliban insurgency movement. The Afghan Taliban commanders also say that ISI gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and supplies. In the words of these Afghan Taliban commanders, this is ‘as clear as the sun in the sky’.
Pakistani government issued its usual denials just as it had denied umpteen times the existence of Mullah Mohammed Omar’s ‘Quetta Shura Taliban (QST)’ in the provincial capital Quetta of Baluchistan. But General Stanley McChrystal confirmed the existence of QST in his report to President Obama in August, 2009 as follows: ‘Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta , the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan . At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year‘.
US can NOT afford to forget either that "The PAKISTANI MILITARY ORGANIZED AND SUPPORTED THE TALIBAN TO TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN IN 1996“ as confirmed by even UN report on Bhutto killing released on 4/15/2010. So Mullah Mohammed Omar’s QST and Haqqani’s HQN are essentially Pakistani puppets, dancing to the tune of Pakistan.
Unless and until Gates, Mullen and Petraeus trio is willing to accept that Pakistan is a ‘problem’ rather than a ‘solution’, US Afghan mission will continue to suffer.
Abuse of human rights by Indians
Again Mr. Suresh is presenting same arguments, whicha have no logic and has been rejected by whole of world. WHAT ABT INDIANS WHO ORGANIZED AND FUNDED LTTE IN SRILANKA and that insurgency resulted in the murder of their own prime minsiter Rajev Ghandi. Now indians are violating human rights by killing innocent naxals and moists who need freedom from india. World shd come forward to help naxals for their freedom fight along with kashmiris.
And whenever these blackhindooindians refute by saying that Pakistan army is killing innocent people in NWFP and Balochistan I become so enraged that I feel like doing something but since I am so peaceful and non violent and Allah(SWA) stops me I don't do anything.
Can you believe it terrorists of NWFP and Balochistan are innocents. Whole world knows these misguided people are TERRORISTS.
Moral : Pakistani rebels are terrorists and Indian rebels are innocent people
And don't forget to read my friend Orange's blog : lalqila.wordpress.com
On a lighter note: Afghan Governance, circa 1999
I'm in the middle of Abdul Salam Zaeef's autobiography "My Life with the Taliban." Zaeef worked in the Taliban's Ministry of Defense and was their ambassador to Pakistan. From his time as the deputy Minister of Mines around 1999:
"I settled easily into my new position and soon quite enjoyed working at the ministry... Our outreach, however, was very limited, with many of the ministry's departments in the provinces acting independently or being used by individuals for personal gain.
There were endless disputes the provincial governors and the ministries in the capital. The governors sought to control the provincial government departments themselves, and the ministries in Kabul struggled to implement the formal systems of governance. The Taliban controled 90 per cent of the country, but there were still massive internal disputes over control. The different provincial government branches acted independently from each other; central ministries and the provincial governors feuded over power; all these problems remained unresolved when the Islamic Emirates was ousted in 2001."
I hope Tom's correspondent friend isn't above the rank of Major. Ten KIA's in the first 3 weeks in one company? That's a serious leadership problem. And does he really think the Taliban are motivated to deal from a position of strength at the bargaining table? Seriously? We should focus on controlling the roads to Kabul? Exclusively? Is this a joke?
The writer obviously thinks the actions of both sides in the conflict are geared towards being in a strong position at the bargaining table. That kind of muddled thinking gave us Korea.
All conflicts end at the bargaining table, but fighting a war with that endgame as the primary driver of strategy and tactics is less than bright. You fight a war to make your opponent submit. You don't negotiate until a) your opponent submits, b) you submit, or c) you both realize that neither can make the other submit. If the writer thinks "c" is where we're at then he doesn't need to be leading troops.
Thank you for your service, but you need to find a new career.
Twenty eight of the Thirty Years war involved the various parties trying to establish a good negotiating position before starting peace talks. When they finally did make peace everyone lost out because the empire was gutted.
During the Lebanese civil war the worst fighting always happened just before ceasefires as both sides tried to grab something while they could.
In order to negotiate from strength Nixon killed more than a million people carpet bombing Vietnam and Cambodia.
'Establishing a negotiating position' can be a bloody business. Better to sit in Kabul and one or two big bases and ask an honest broker like the Indonesians or the Turks to bring the various parties to the table and talk things over.
And 9/11 was planned in Hamburg not Kabul.
I'm sure this soldier means well, but it reflects somewhat the failing of modern education.
First, the Pashtuns are 42% of the populaton, not 50%, and "Tribal justice reigned and the people were content" shows he wasn't paying attention in Tribal History 101. This kind of nostalgic looking back towards the Noble Savage days is always rosy in the imagination and brutal on the ground.
Afghanistan is behind the 8 ball in the national evolution stages of Tribe - Kingdom - Nation. Until Afghanistan can establish itself as a modern nation-state, it will continue the historical patterns of inter-tribal warfare until one tribe emerges dominant, which is basically where they were before we got there.
As in Iraq, centuries of cultural habits will make playing the role of a modern nation-state difficult, but helping them have a shot at it is worth it.
And where does all the gloom and doom come from? Doesn't anyone read military sitreps? Taliban capacity is reduced to suicide bombers, IEDs and assassinations. Morale on the ground is down from the loss of mid-level leaders and lack of reinforcements and supplies. IED effectiveness is diminishing due to the loss of bomb techs and their leaders. A recent poll shows only 6% of Afghans support the Taliban. Afghans know the Taliban cause far more civilian casualties than NATO, and the Taliban are increasingly hated for it. And those areas that have been under Taliban control hate the lifestyle police. Afghanistan is following the pattern of societies that have suffered under Islamic extremists casting them off. Afghanistan is going the way of Iraq.
It is a shame people as brave as you are dying for such a questionable cause. The timeline sucks, but the mission itself is unwise. Bring the troops home please so they are no longer sacrificing their lives for Obama's compromise plan. He is playing with soldiers' lives here.
Petraeus is not interested in negotiating positions; he is
interested in winning. As he stated in his testimony today, Afghanistan is a battle of wills between the Taliban and the US. Much as Iraq was a battle of wills between al Qaeda and the US.
We won the war in Iraq because of two factors, the genius of Petraeus (which is a combination of Patton's battlefield skills and Eisenhower's political acumen) and the staunch, unyielding support of the CIC, President George W. Bush.
In Afghanistan we now have Petraeus taking command. This is huge and portends success. However, it will not be easy. In Iraq Petraeus was able to make the case for nationalism. I seriously doubt that he can do the same in Afghanistan. He will have to make a different appeal. Still, he will be limited for the next few years because he does not have Bush in the White House to back him up.
As a result, I believe Petraeus will be marking time until Jan 2013 (when we will have a real CIC) by shaping the battlefield, bringing in his command team, reconfiguring the civilian side, building up his forces, reinforcing his allies in Congress and the media, etc. In other words, we will spend another year and a half wasting time, blood and treasure in Afghanistan, as we have spent the past year and a half since Jan 2009.
This is unfortunate, but it's what happens when Americans elect a President like Obama in wartime. Obama is easily the worst wartime President since Lyndon Johnson. Might be worse than Johnson.
"We won the war in Iraq because of two factors, the genius of Petraeus (which is a combination of Patton's battlefield skills and Eisenhower's political acumen) and the staunch, unyielding support of the CIC, President George W. Bush. "
We didn't win the war in Iraq. It was a grotesque failure and disaster for the USA.
Under Saddam Iraq was stable and toothless. All we've done is strengthen Iran and kill 5,000 of our guys and wound tens of thousands of others to come back to roughly the same strategic position we had before we invaded Iraq.
Well, that is not true. The US Military, which had looked effective and well led, has pretty much been shredded and shown to be a paper tiger with the same quality senior leaders we had in the Viet Nam era - lousy.
Walt
like South Africa
It is the extremist that wants to destroy the Pakistan current state as well as U.S. and other western interests outside of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This terrain provides the safe haven and opportunity for foreign fighters outside of the Pashtu and Afghanistan and Pakistan to target the U.S. as well as Pakistan, which extremists consider a U.S. ally, or puppet. Reaching an acceptable solution among the TB and Pashtu will allow us and Pakistan to target and rid the Pashtu belt of AQ and other extremists -- our Commander-in-Chief's main objective.
porno
"Obama is easily the worst wartime President since Lyndon Johnson. Might be worse than Johnson."
Well, now.
Johnson had no war when he came into office. He ginned it up on his own.
Let's not forget that President Obama already held a very poor hand when he came into office. The "fight them over there" mantra still resounds with too many people. The GOP and its organ FOX News would go ape crazy if Obama did what is in the nation's best interests - tell the DOD to roll it up and bring everything possible and everybody back to the US.
Afgahnistan is too important a profit center to many important interests for us to do what is best for the country as a whole.
Walt
"President Obama
has cleverly demoted Petraeus, a potential political rival, and stuck him in this graveyard of empires where there is no chance for a positive US outcome. Petraeus has already started to trap himself verbally (as in Iraq) with rosy predictions about the Afghan army. It's not entirely his fault; it's a fool's errand."
Dang, that is smart!
Walt
Our young auteur d'articles has passion, but without controlling the countryside, can one control Afghanistan, a rural centric country, for any length of time?
”Night fell in the countryside, peasants saw where the power lay with the conflicting sides: the Vietminh slept with the people while the village councils slept with the soldiers in the outposts.” - "War Comes to Long An"
Unfortunately, none of this justifies the war
It's been said that since there are less than 100 Al Queda operatives in Afghanistan, why don't we just bribe each of them $100,000,000 to come over to our side? It would certainly be a lot cheaper than waging the war effort that we're now doing.
It's been estimated that our troops use a gallon of fuel that costs the US government $150 a gallon to deliver to them on the ground. And besides airlifting it in, a huge percentage of those costs go to corruption to Russians, Kazakhs, and Kyrgyzs, many of whom are associated with the heroin business. And then when we transport over the border in Afghanistan, we have to bribe the very people that we later fight against, does anything in this Alice in Wonderland war make any sense at all?
I have argued time and time again, that our withdrawal from Afghanistan would be salutary for the health of the American Empire, as we wouldn't be overextended in our military commitment any more. We'd be minimizing trouble with Russia as we tone down our involvement in the former Soviet Republics. We'd be able to concentrate more effort on stabilizing Pakistan. We'd be in a better position both towards Pakistan and Iran, as we'd create a power vacuum that would divert both countries' attentions to Afghanistan instead of making trouble with their neighbors. And we'd eliminate yet another burr that inflames non Middle Eastern Al Queda recruits.
I'm struck by how many people appear to have a very negative view on our prospects in Afghanistan given the sheer brutality and cruel inventiveness displayed by our enemies. However, I'd like to turn that on its head and point out the levels of desperation displayed by mainstream Taliban operational policy. The use of suicide bombing itself gives it away. It's the ultimate nihilistic statement of defiance used by armies and nations who can not imagine their future following a defeat and believe they have no other option. Japan in the dying days of WWII were going down to defeat and they knew it deep down. The Tamil Tigers were amazing in their brutality and their skill, but their suicide bombings didn't win them the war. They were eventually annihilated. Can anyone point to an example of this technique actually being used for eventual success? The Palestinians are in an even greater hole then they were when they resorted to it.
In a nutshell, the fact that the Taliban consider this and the use of small children as mine layers (see the recent Times of London article) as worthwhile strategies simply reinforces the fact that they have no way of winning without a complete collapse of political will in the States.
Regards, Contract Hire
t's not only in America that the citizenry are officially told that foreign militaries should stay in Afghanistan because their young people die well there. In Britain, the current prime minister and his two recent predecessors argue that the central issue is supplying better tools to the heavy-hit force they maintain in Afghanistan. They die well there, too.
As for today's not entirely coherent email to Mr Ricks, has the Afghan campaign really come down to this: "fight[ing] and gain[ing] control of the key roads to Kabul in order to open commerce and transportation?" I doubt it. In the other nominated aim, "build[ing] the replica TAG capacity and capability of the ANSF", we already have evidence, and it's from the secretary of defense, that this is not happening to the required degree -- a major failure to which few seem to pay attention.
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