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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks
Monday, June 14, 2010 - 9:10 AM
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The New York Times's breathless coverage of minerals in Afghanistan was greeted with chuckles not only by FP's Blake Hounshell but by old Afghan hands. Here John Stuart Blackton, who has shaken more Helmand River sand out of his shorts than most Americans in Afghanistan have walked on, provides some background. By the way, before running USAID in Afghanistan, John attended Stephens College of Delhi-as did Pakistan's Gen. Zia.
By John Stuart Blackton
Best Defense Afghan natural resources editorThe " discovery" of Afghanistan's minerals will sound pretty silly to old timers. When I was living in Kabul in the early 1970's the USG, the Russians, the World Bank, the UN and others were all highly focused on the wide range of Afghan mineral deposts. The Russian geological service was all over the North in the 60's and 70's.
Cheap ways of moving the ore to ocean ports has always been the limiting factor. The Russians were looking at a northern rail corridor.
Take a look at this little bibliography of Afghan mineral assessments. This one is mostly Russian, but pre-dates the DoD/USG "discovery" period by 30 years. In my day we did a joint USG/Iranian study of a potential rail line from Afghanistan to several of the Iranian rail hubs. This was predicated on mineral exploitation in a way that would thwart the Russian's northern rail corridor plans.
In the early 70's the USG had an old FDR New-Deal planner/economist/brains-truster - Bob Nathan - working with the Afghan Ministry of Plan to work out a fifty year mineral exploitation program. When the Russians took over they picked up Bob's plans and extended them. So this is anything but a "new discovery".
Low cost, long haul transport infrastructure remains the constraint. The Louis Berger "four inches of asphalt on the old Ring Road" doesn't do it.
Bibliography
Drummond, C. (1841) On the mines and mineral resources of Northern Afghanistan. Journal of the Asiat. Society Bengal, Calcutta, 1841, 10: 74-93.
Furon, R. (1924) Les ressources minières de l'Afghanistan. Rev. Sci, Paris, 1924: 62: 313.
Momji, G.S. and Chaikin, S.N. (1960) Iron ores of Afghanistan. Kabul, DGMS, 1960.
Maiorov, A.N., Suderkin, A.I., and Krepoy, M.E. (1965) Report by the Survey and Prospecting Team on the results obtained in 1963-1964 at the lapis-lazuli occurrences of Afghanistan. Kabul, Rec. Off., DGMS, 1965.
Malyarov, A.N., Suderkin, A.I., and Krepov, N.E. (1965) Report on the results of prospecting for and exloration of lapis-lazuli carried out in Afghanistan in 1963-1964. Kabul, DGMS, 1965.
Narodniy, V.M. and Shwarkov, S.L. (1965) Report on the reslts of survey and prospecting for beryl carried out in 1963-64 in the eastern part of Afghanistan with the reserves assessment of the Darrahe Pech rare metal-bearing pegmatite deposit. Kabul, Rec. Off. DCMS, 1965.
Khasanov, R.L., Plotnikov, G.I., Bayazitov, R.A., Zamaraev, G.N., Trifonov, A.I., and Sayapin, V.I. (1967) Report on the results of revision and assessment of copper, lead, zinc, gold occurrences carried out in 1965-1966. Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1967.
Mikhailov, K.Ya., Moraliov, V.M., Perfiliev, Yu.S., and Chalian, M.A. (1969) The bauxite potential of the Mesozoic deposits in the southern part of the Afghano-Tadjik Depression. Razvedka i okhrana nedr, 1969, No. 7.
Dronov, V.I., Kalimulin, S.M., Kabaov, O.N., Kotchetkov, A.Ya., Zelensky, E.D., Chistyakov, A.N., and Svezhentsov, V.P. (1970) The geology and minerals of the western part of Central Afghanistan (Report of the Herat Team on the work in 1969). Kabul, DGMS, 1970.
Karapetov, S.S., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Kotchetov, A.Ya., Semionov, Yu.G., and Gorelov, A.I. (1970) The geology and minerals of the eastern part of Central Afghanistan. Kabul, DGMS, 1970.
Denikayev, Sh.Sh., Feoktistov, V.P., Pyzhyanov, I.V., Adjruddin, A., Narbaev, Sh.N., and Konev, Yu.M. (1971) The geology and minerals of the southern part of East Afghanista. Kabul, DGMS, 1971.
Denikayev, Sh.Sh., Feoktistov, V.P., Pyzhyanov, I.V., Adjruddin, A.A., Narbaev, Sh.N., and Konev, Yu.M. (1971) The geology and minerals in the south part of Eastern Afghanistan (Report of the Kabul team on the work in 1970). Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1971.
Dovgal, Yu.M., Chalian, M.A., Nagliov, V.S., Diomin, A.N., Vaulin, V.A., Belitch, A.I., Sonin, I.I., Kononykhin, E.T., Zharikhin, K.C., Maksimov, N.P., Skvortsov, N.S., and Kharitonov, A.P. (1971) Geology and minerals in the south-eastern part of Central Afghanistan (Report on survey, scale 1:200,000, carried out in 1967-1970). Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1971.
Litvinenko, K.I., Parfionov, Yu.I. (1971) Report on the results of geological prospecting for and evaluaton of mercury occurrences carried out in 1970. Kabul, DGMS, 1971.
Litvinenko, K.I., Rul'kovsky, M.F., and Koshelev, Yu.M. (1971) Report by the Kundalyan Party on the reslts of geological prospecting for and exploration of copper occurrences carried out in 1969-1970. Kabul, DGMS, 1971.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Mirzad, S.H., Dronov, V.I., Kazikhani, A.R., Salah, A.S., and Teleshev, G.I. (1972) Mineral resources of Afghanistan (A explanatory note to the Map of Mineral Deposits and occurrences of Afghanistan, scale: 1:1,000,000), Kabul, DGMS, 1972.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Mirzad, S.H., Dronov, V.I., Kazikhani, A.R., Salah, A.S., and Teleshev, G.I. (1972) Mineral resources of Afghanistan. Geology and Mineral Resources of Afghanistan. Print. Kabul Times, Kabul, 1973, Ed. 1.
Denikayev, Sh.Sh., Feoktistov, V.P., Rossovsky, L.N., and Adjruddin, A. (1972) The geology and minerals of the northern part of East Afghanistan (Report of the Kabul party on the work in 1971). Kabul, DGMS, 1972.
Dronov, V.I., Kalimulin, S.M., Sbortshchikov, I.M., Svezhentsov, V.P., Chistyakov, A.N., Zelensky, E.D., and Cherepov, P.C. (1972) Geology and minerals of north Afghanistan (parts of sheets 400-II and 500-I, Kaisor-Hari Rod interfluve). Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1972.
Dronov, V.I., Karapetov, S.S., Kalimulin, S.M., Kotchetkev, A.Ya., Sonin, .I., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Svezhentsov, V.P., Semionov, Yu.G. (Editos: V.M. Chmyriov and S.H. Mirzad)(1972). Geological map of central and south-west Afghanistan, scale 1:500,000. Printed in Cartographic Institute. Kabul, 1972.
Kafarskiy, A.Kh., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Pyzhyanov, I.V., Achilov, G.Sh., Gorelov, A.I., Bezulov, G.M., and Gazanfari, S.A. (1972) Geology and minerals of the Western Hendukush and the eastern part of the Bande-Turkestan (parts of sheets 500-I, 500-II). Kabul, Rec. Off. DGMS, 1972.
Litvinenko, K.I., Parfionov, Yu.I., and Zastoin, A.I. (1972) Report on the results of prospecting for and assessment of mercury occurrences carried out in 1971. Kabul, Rec. Off. DCMS, 1972.
Dronov, V.I. (1973) Generalized stratigraphic columns to the Geological Map of Central and South-Western Afghanistan, Scale 1:50 000. Printed Kabul Times, Kabul, 1973, 2 sheets.
Dronov, V.I., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Kotchetkov, A.Ya., Karapetov, S.S., Kalimulin, S.M., ad Sonin, I.I. (1973) The geology and minerals of Central and South-West Afghanistan. Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1973.
Gumerov, L.G. (1973) A preliminary report on prospecting for chrisotile-asbestos carried out by the Non-Metalliferous party in 1970-1972 and on further trend of the work. Kabul, DGMS, 1973.
Kabakov, O.N. (1973) Review of the tin occurrences of Afghanistan (Summary report by prospecting and evaluation party on the work in 1970-1972). Kabul, DGMS, 1973.
Kononov, O.V., Slavin, V.I., and Atikulla, S. (1973) Recent volcanoes and aragonite deposits in South-Western Afghanistan. Thes. Rep. V knige: I Nauchno-metodicheskaya konferentsiya, Ku i. KPI. Kabul, 1973: 15-16.
Filippov, O.I. (1974) Report on the results of prospecting and exploration for mica-muscovite in Afghanistan carried out in 1972-1974. kabul, DMS, 1974.
Kafarskiy, A.Kh., Averianov, V.B., and Burel, M.P. (1974) Geology and minerals of the Afghan Pamir (a part of sheet 300-III), Kabul Rec. Off. GS, 1974.
Kiriohek, V.S., Logatchev, V.P., and Kosarez, N.E. (1974) Report by the Rasul prospecting and exploration party on the prospecting for tin carried out in 1972-1973. Kabul, DGMS, 1974.
Kornev, L.E. and Arvanitaki, S.E. (1974) Report on the reslts of prospecting and evaluation of mercury occurrences carried out in 1972-1973. Kabul, DGMS, 1974.
Orlov, G.A., Sloboda, G.S., Eriomenko, C.K., Zhdan, A.V., Matveev, P.S., Gauwari, S. (1974) Report by the Jigdalek Team on prospecting for rubies in 1973-1974. Kabul, Rec. Off. DGMS, 1974.
Chmyriov, V.M. (1975) The main features of tin mineralization in Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the 3rd Scientific Conference held in Ku and KPI, Kabul, 1975: 74-75.
Chmyriov, V.M. and Litvinenko, K.I. (1975) Localization features of mercury mineralization in Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the 3rd Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1975: 75-78.
Chmyriov, V.M. and Rossovsky, L.N. (1975) Localization features of rare-metal pegmatite fields of Afghanisan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the 3rd Scientific Conference held in the KU and KPI, Kabul, 1975: 72-74.
Eriomenko, C.K., Vkhter, B.Ya., Chmyriov, V.M., and Khamidi Khabi bulah (1975) Volcanic Quaternary carbonatite complex in Afghanistan. Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR: 223, 2 pp.
Kafarskiy, A.Kh., Averianov, V.B., Kolesnichenko, V.A., Burel, M.P. and Achlov, G.Sh. (1975) The geology and minerals of the West Hendukush parts of map sheets 200-II, 500-III, 500-IV). Kabul, DGMS, 1975.
Kafarskiy, A.Kh., Averianov, V.B., Kolesnichenko, V.A., Burel, M.P. and Achlov, G.Sh. (1975) Geology and minerals of the Western Badakhshan and northern flanks of the Western Hendukush (parts of sheets 200-II, 500-III, IV). Kabul, Rec. Off. DGMS, 1973.
Kornev, L.E., Zhdan, A.V., Orlov, G.A., Mironov, Y.Yu., Matveev, P.S., Tsoolov, G.S., and Sliozov, V.A. (1975) Report by the Taywara and Kharnak teams on prospecting for mercury in 1973-74. Kabul Rec. Off., 1975.
Chmyriov, V.M., Abdullah, Sh., Dronov, V.I., Kafarsky, A.Kh., Salah, A.S., and Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F. (1976) Geological Map of Afghanistan. Abstracts Himalayan Geology Seminar, New Delhi, 1976.
Chmyriov, V.M., Dronov, V.I., Kafarsky, A.Kh., Salah, A.S., and Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F. (1976) Geological map of Afghanistan. 'Abstracts Himalayan Geology Seminar', New Delhi, 1976.
Chmyriov, V.M., Kafarsky, A.Kh., Abdullah, Sh., Dronov, V.I., and Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F. (1976) Tectonic zoning of Afghanistan. Abstracts, Himalayan Geology Seminar, New Delhi, 1976.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., and Azimi, N. (1976) Ore formations of Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the IVth Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1976: 62-63.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Azimi, N., and Giroval, M. (1976) Metallogenic provinces of Afghanistan. Thes. Rep. V knige: IV Nauchno-metodicheskaya konferentsiya, KU i KPI, Kabul, 1976: 57-58.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Azimi, N., and Giroval, M. (1976) Metallogenic zoning of Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the IVth Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1976: 57-58.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., and Giroval, T. (1976) Metallogenic epochs of Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the IVth Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1976: 61-62.
Gumerov, L.G., Yorov, Z., Kazikhani, A. (1976) Chrisotile-asbestos deposits of Afghanistan. Izv. Ac. Sc. USS, 1976, ser. geol. No. 4.
Kotchetkov, A.Ya. (1976) Some features of metallogeny of Central and Western Afghanistan. Izv. VUZ-ov, Geologiya i Razvedka, 1976, No.4.
Chmyriov, V.M. and Azimi, N.A. (1977) The new uranium and rare-earth mineralization type of the Mediterranean Belt (Afghanistan). Theses of reports. -In: Bulletin of the V-th Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1977: 55-56.
Chmyriov, V.M. and Azimi, N.A. (1977) Telethermal mineral deposits of Afghanistan. Theses of reports. In: Bulletin of the V-th Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1977: 57-58.
Chmyriov, V.M. and Azimi, N.A. (1977) The genetic types and ore formations of copper deposits of Afghanistan. Theses of reports. -In: Bulletin of the V-th Scientific Conference held in KU and KPI, Kabul, 1977: 5.
Chmyriov, V.M., Azimi, N.A., Dronov, V.I., Slavin, V.I., Kafarsky, A.Kh., and Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F. (1977) The ain geological features of Afghanistan. Izv. AN SSSR. Seriya geol. 1977 (2): 29-48.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Dronov, V.I., and Kafarsky, A.Kh. (1977) Geology and minerals of Afghanistan. Kabul Rec. Off. DGMS, 1977.
Chmyriov, V.M. (1978) Geological features and metallogenic zoning of Afghanistan. Avtoreferat kad. Dissert., Vladivostok, 1978: 29.
Chmyriov, V.M. (1978) Peculiarities of the geology and principles of metallogenic zoning of Afghanistan. Synopsis of thesis of candidate disertat., Vladivostok, USSR, 1978: 1-29.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Abdullah, Sh., Giroval, T., Dronov, V.I., Kafarsky, A.Kh., Kornev, L.E., Lyubimov, B.K., Maywand, K., Malarov, E.P., and Sokolova, L.V. (1978) Map of mineral deposits and occurrences of Afghanistan. Published by Leningrad Map Reproduction Plant at the Ministry of Geology of the USSR, 1978, 1 map sheets.
Chmyriov, V.M., Stazhilo-Alekseev, K.F., Abdullah, Sh., Giruval, M., Dronov, V.I., Kafarsky, A.Kh., Kornev, L.E., Lynbimov, B.K., Maiwand, M.K., Malyarov, E.P., and Sokolova, L.V. (1978) Map of Mineral Resources of Afghanistan, scale 1:500,000. Printed Lenigrad Cartogr., Ministry of Geology, USSR 1978, 19 sheets.
Abdullah, S.H. and Chmyriov, V.M. (1980) Geology and mineral resources of Afghanistan.
China is already in there mining as others will be soon enough
The country has vast minerals deposits and this has been known for a while, the problem is how to exploit them for the good of the country and while corruption will be unavoidable it does give hope as an alternative to opium as a mainstay for a resource of Afghanistan. IF they can keep the corruption low and if we do not pack up and leave in a year or so and stay the course while keeping open an Air Base that has Iran, China and Russia all very close by, perhaps get some American Corps to do some of the mining instead of the Chinese then this could be a win-win for all in the long run. Yes, I know, the costs of our overseas "exploits" are heavy but when 60% of our entire budget goes to entitlements right now and that it is expected to go to 80% by 2020 (CBO) then these are hardly the reason we will go bankrupt (Mind you, these were estimates before the Health Care Bill), look to the entitlements as the main reason for that if money is taken up as the main issue as to why we should get out.
Le Malediction - The Resource Curse
Otter – General Petraeus says, “Hope springs eternal.”
If a sovereign wealth fund were created and funds channeled into that in which all Afghans regardless of ethnicity got an allowance from, that might work.
However, one observation from my time spent in sub-Saharan Africa tells me is that Afghanistan would likely attract foreign companies that would only invest if they were assured the ability to extract as cheaply as possible - really cheaply, without any problems from the locals.
Surely what I describe would start by a whole lot of palm's getting greased, a lot of promises made to those living on these lands that would be torn up, while in the end only a few people getting rich and everybody else wonders what happened?
If Afghanistan is lucky, the cost of infrastructure development, the electrical power and grid necessary, and the lack of security will keep any of this from occurring because another by-product of resource cursed developing nations is civil war – which on top of an insurgency, the rural Afghan doesn’t need.
Every country has an acceptable level of corruption, how minimum we can keep it is the key and yes, "Hope does spring eternal" Debbie Downer ;) It could work if done right, a general fund is a great idea but I fear that since our current civilian leadership in that area of the world cannot get out of it's own way and that the Military is doing the mother load of things from contracts to deals for safety, etc...I just do not know, time will tell. The country also has great potential as an eco-tourist destination if they ever get it calmed down, but again, time will tell. I remain upbeat as long as we stay the course, too many upsides to staying and people who join know what is expected in an AVF ;)
Eric, look this attitude of ‘once you take the King’s shilling your life is not your own’ is offensive. Exploiting, and manipulating the lives of our AVF who have offered their services to their country for more than just a paycheck is not worthy of the government United States. Every man and women that goes in harms way in the name of their country deserves to be doing it for a cause greater than securing some mining interests in some far off god forsaken place. We owe it to our people in uniform to use their service for more than facilitating the squalid and greedy impulses of the most disreputable elements of our military/political class.
Never said that about the "shilling", what I do say is that we know what we are getting into and we do not go into this with our eyes shut. I also know you share Ducky's hardcore view of a draft military, I do not however share that view unless you want to go Heinlein on it? ;)
We have a stake in this fight, we are the ones who have gone over and done something (myself 3x to OEF and 2x to OIF) and want it to last and to make it. You talk of the political class? They are usually the ones who screw who it up at the strategic level, you want to fix the military? You want to fix this thing in Afghanistan? I will say this again and again and again-fix the officer corps on how they are promoted, how long they are assigned and what they are trained for and how they are trained, get rid of at least half of them and put them into the reserve if they are line officers. Right now our Officer System is still based on an outdated WWII model, largely based on a combo of the old French and English Systems. It has nothing to do with the "shilling", everything to do with a stake in this and that long term it is worth it. The only thing a Draft would do is get a bunch of whiners to protest and who wouldn't fight for this country even if the Chinese were on Penn Ave. Yeah, it might be a cause to get us out of it since the "Political Class" as you call them would lose the stomach for it but we in the "Military Class" have not lost the stomach for it yet and want to see it done and finish it, we know the costs and are willing to take it, stop insulting us by saying you want to pull us out for "our own good", I am confident we know what is for our own good. Yet another great thing about the AVF, after you contract is up, you do not believe in it anymore, you can get out.
Eric Stratton confuses entitlements with mandatory spending, which includes interest on the national debt. It is also the case that both military and civilian pensions, for example, are technically entitlements.
The actual share of federal spending by the three largest entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) is closer to 40%.
It is 60%, going to 80%, that includes ALL-Medicare, SS, etc..SS is the largest, an average of 32 cents of every dollar you pay in taxes goes to SS due the way the system is set up. No confusion and the CBO even puts that out.
If you want a good run down of the state of Lithium, check this story out below. Here are some things that I thought about while read the article and observing current events:
Bolivia is not a stable partner for Lithium(thanks to it's relationship with Chavez and company) The infrastructure to get that Lithium is equally poor.
China looks at Lithium as the new oil. Industry needs the stuff, and demand will only go up. Until something replaces Lithium as the optimum battery substance, I don't see the demand for it going away any time soon.
The BP oil spill in the Gulf will change US energy policy, or drive the current alternative energy elements of the current policy. The message that the spill sends is 'oil has destroyed my life and country (for gulf inhabitants), find alternative forms of energy'. Many of today's alternative energy sources require batteries. Computers and phones require the stuff as well.
This is what makes Lithium interesting right now, and Afghanistan supposedly has a bunch of it.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/13/874746/-The-state-of-lithium
Couple of points: First, occupying Afghanistan so that American or Chinese companies can exploit that country’s lithium or copper deposits smacks of our interventions in Central America to protect American sugar and banana companies. Killing and maiming American or NATO service personnel to line miming interests pockets (surely the troops won’t benefit) is hard to reconcile as an American strategic imperative.
Secondly, the financial crisis we are in is largely a creation of both political parties who want to spend (yes on both entitlements and military spending) but not to pay for anything. In particular right-wingers so enamored of these wars wanting to wage them but not asking the American people to pay for them. They justly fear that taxation might increase public awareness and hence discontent for two absurd wars that are impossible justify on any rational grounds.
Thirdly, this country fiscal posture does not exist for the primary purpose of giving the armed forces something to do. We have a Constitutional obligation to defend this country but that does not include half-baked wars of choice particularly wars that are based on faked intelligence and are counterproductive and poorly conducted.
JPWREL - Remember, President Roosevelt remarked that, "Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch." In the spirit of this, Karzai may be an s.o.b. also, but I needn't remind you he's our s.o.b. And though Karzai runs Bananastan, and may be on the Dole like Bobby Banana, he at least doesn't parade his Chiquita in public like Somoza did.
Love your use of words in the counter-post, very inventive!
JPWREL, Pres. Obama is all in on this war. I would hardly call him a right-winger so your accusation that Afghanistan falls "in particular" at the feet of the right doesn't hold water. You were on the right track (no pun intended) in the first sentence of that paragraph.
You should go back and look at the polls (starting in 2001) for both Afghanistan AND Iraq. You will see there was majority support from a broad segment of the American population for both wars.
Since the blog post refers to Afghanistan and not Iraq, your third paragraph makes no sense. What "faked intelligence" was instrumental in our involvement in Afghanistan?
I'm going to assume that English is a second (possibly even a third) language for you. Even so, after deciphering your gibberish I still came to the conclusion that you are not someone who's opinion needs to be taken seriously. I know you will be pleased.
Interesting development, even if its not news. I really have to wonder, though, if the prospects of vast mineral wealth help or hurt the situation? Has diamond mining been a net plus or a net minus in Africa? Are we succumbing to mirror imaging bias when we think if "show Afghans the money" everything will be okay? Is that really what they want, or is the average Afghan more or less happy to live a pre-modern existance and doesn't really care to be dragged into the globalized economy?
To me, it shows how desperate folks are getting regarding Western audiences and the Afghanistan war.
I'm sort of curious on why more attention is being devoted to this find and the Aynak Copper deposit fail by the US, and big win for the Chinese. Yes, Aynak was reported some time ago as an example of Afghan corruption, but it also speaks volumes to US incompetence.
JPWREL, Eric is right, there are folks in the military who knew exactly what they are getting themselves into. In their own way, they aren't victims or dupes. Based on conversations with folks, I can tell you that there are folks who are well aware that part of their mission is to advance US corporate interests, and they don't think it a bad thing. Remember, everyone loves a winner.
Regarding Eric's "whiner" statement, there is some truth there. At some point the anti-imperialist crowd needs to shed itself of this emo thing we've got going, and this willingness to excuse savagery in colonized people. People need to remember that before there was Jane Fonda, Abbie Hoffman, or Sean Penn, we had Mark Twain and Andrew Carnegie in our camp. I likes me some Franz Fanon, but I still think he was a bit of an idiot ; but the French were savages, so what are you going to do? Stay out of it, and make sure that any American who wants to get involved has to do so on their own dime. So, Eric, if I ran this country I would do my level best to make it almost impossible to go to war. Not because I am under any illusions about our "enemies", but rather because I hate a boondoggle. And as an American who has worked abroad, I can tell you these adventures of Bush and Bama do not make our lives easier.
Furthermore, on whiners, we are and should point out that the interventionist camp has been full of misguided, narrow-shouldered eggheads since Wilson's day, hiding behind the alpha males. I believe Ricks would call that contesting the dominant narrative.
Sigh . . . The Great Game continues . . . .
Did anyone actually read the NYT article?
In the first place, it contains an abundance of caveats as to the practicality of large-scale mining in Afghanistan and the difficulties presented by ongoing violence and the corruption of relevant Afghan government agencies. Also -- right there in a handy graphic -- is the breakdown of the $908 billion guesstimate in this internal Pentagon paper.
The great majority of it, about $700 of the $908 billion, is iron ore and copper. These are useful minerals, to be sure, but not "game-changers" for anyone. There are large deposits of niobium, which is interesting (niobium is used to strengthen metal alloys). But if there is something really, dramatically useful to Western economies in Afghanistan, it is more obscure minerals like lithium and rare earth elements. These are harder to locate, their value is harder to estimate, and (with due respect to the Soviet sources Tom Ricks' source cites in his data dump here) the American effort to do the latter only started last year.
Why? Maybe it's conspiracy or political manipulation, skillfully timed to coincide with bad news from the fighting around Marja and Kandahar. On the other hand, the Risen piece says in black and white that the Pentagon task force that produced these guesstimates started work only in 2009 -- because before then it had been working in Iraq. Business development might have come in handy for us in Afghanistan, say, five years ago, before the strife in that country had reached its present dimensions. But Iraq was the main show, and Afghanistan was the side show.
That had consequences, as Tom Ricks ought to know. This looks like one of them.
As I was admiring a lapis setting in a ring I picked-up many years ago, the lapis having come out of Afghanistan, I was thinking about not seeing the forest for the trees, or as I once heard - many people are loggers but few are forestry experts
Much of this information comes from a U.S Geodetic Survey sponsored and paid for by USAID in 2007, which wouldn’t have been explored had previous information available not been evaluated. Whether released for political consumption at this time, etc. is obviously open to speculation.
What everyone missed, but was mentioned in some of the articles about Afghanistan being a possible mineral storehouse of wealth was how much cement the country must import and the fact that cement floors alone can have a tremendous bearing on health and quality of life. But everyone is concentrating on rare earth metals when it's something so simple the Afghan could have right now.
...elsewhere on this site. It wasn't precisely relevant to the world-weary herd instinct of commentators on this subject (oh, but of course we all knew Afghanistan was rich in minerals, so the Pentagon must just be talking about this now because Kandahar isn't going well), but it does speak to the issue I raise here.
There are lots of things that might have been done in Afghanistan years ago, when the Taliban were widely remembered for their reign of terror rather than for not being part of Hamid Karzai's reign of corruption. Encouraging cement production is certainly one of them. It may not have been done effectively because it didn't occur to the dimwits working for the Americans or NATO then, none of whom are clever enough to do news updates for the FP website. It is more likely that it wasn't done effectively because from 2002 to 2008 the whole attention of the Bush administration was on Iraq. Where freedom was on the march, as readers will recall, and we were fighting terrorists so we wouldn't have to fight them in the United States.
Lost time has consequences. That may be the single most important reservation I have about the Obama administration's Afghan strategy, which on both the military and civilian/economic side has been full of new ideas and creative thinking about starting over and doing things right, as if the years lost while we tread water in Afghanistan didn't mean anything.
As if Afghanistan had a reset button.
ARVAY: your right, he know's his career is at an end. I guess due to the situation in afghanistan, McChrystal now has zero chance at promotion. He will just have to settle on getting out as a 4-Star General.
Excellent obsevation
...damn what do I have to do to be forced to resign as a General? That's real Brer Rabbit territory there.
Invade them.
Occupy them.
Torture, Murder and Terrorize them.
Put them in US GULAG.
Install Drug Dealer puppet.
Loot the Natural Resources.
Nothing to see here folks, keep on moving....
Leadership is what Obama needs, come on, he promised everything and now he is crumbling.
Regards,
CHI hair straightener
CHI Single Pass
CHI Silk Infusion
I really enjoyed this reading.
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In the early 70's the USG had an old FDR New-Deal planner/economist/brains-truster - Bob Nathan - working with the Afghan Ministry of Plan to work out a fifty year mineral exploitation program. When replica IWC the Russians took over they picked up Bob's plans and extended them. So this is anything but a "new discovery".
the USG, the Russians, the World Bank, the UN
It is very interesting how US citizens claiming oneself as “Americans” discuss about Soviets (Uzbeks, Russians, Kazakhs etc.) label them as Russians. Furthermore for me it would be very interesting to know about all the development aid of USA and geological work from USG in the 70’s. I know a lot about the work done by French, Germans, Czechoslovaks and Soviets, but USA or UN?
“When the Russians took over they picked up Bob's plans and extended them.” When they took over? December ’79? After 95% of the work was done? Stupid! It’s a cold war thinking of an old cold war warrior even 20 years after the cold war’s end. Such thinking results in what we have in Afghanistan.
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