I was dismissive of the White House's new National Security Strategy document, saying that these documents are always churned out and seem to have no effect, and really are more list of aspirations than blueprints of an implementable strategy. My smart CNAS colleague Abe Denmark responded that I was reading it the wrong way. I think he may be right.

By Abraham Denmark
Best Defense intelligence directorate

[You] are perhaps expecting too much from a National Security Strategy. This is not an ends, ways and means strategy -- it's a high-level statement that describes the government's view of the international security environment and identifies U.S. interests, priorities, and objectives.

Part of this is because the government does not have absolute control over how it spends its money. It cannot give priorities lined up with initiatives lined up with budgets, because the legislative branch has a say. The White House can only describe our operating environment and how it plans on securing U.S. national security within that context.

I would argue that it actually does this quite well. It recognizes (much more than previous NSS's I'm aware of) that we face significant fiscal and economic constraints, and that this will limit our ability to do all things we would like. Identifying our economic challenges IS an important recognition of our limitations...

It also recognizes that the security challenges we will face (proliferation, terrorism, failing and failed states, economic security, food security, climate change, contested global commons, medical security) will require more than a unilateral military response, but will necessarily involve alliances, coalitions, partnerships, and a whole-of-government approach. Identifying these challenges is not a "bold claim," it's a fact.

Indeed, I would argue that this is the first 21st century NSS. It recognizes the complexities we face, that the old ways of doing business are unsuitable, and that U.S. military power alone is insufficient to sustain our national security.

This is a good foundational strategy document.

whitehouse.gov

 

TYRTAIOS

5:21 PM ET

May 28, 2010

Inadequate National Treasure

I found Abraham Denmark's early on remark about how our government spends and budgets money quite sobering and probably the single most important reason why we may never come close to recognizing such lofty goals. We simply may not have the national treasure to implement such international and foreign agendas this administration's NSS has set?

 

JPWREL

5:45 PM ET

May 28, 2010

TYRTAIOS makes the

TYRTAIOS makes the uncomfortable observation that maybe our country’s appetite for ‘lofty goals’ exceeds our resources. In fact it has been out of balance for quite sometime and we are rapidly losing the financial ability not only to pay as we go but also to tap the international debt markets to cover our deficits. The Bush administration wars were put on the tab largely as a political calculation that the country would not stand for the type of tax increases necessary to pay for them. It seems that the rational for doing these wars even in the minds of their most avid proponents was not convincing enough to test the patriotism of the American public. Americans apparently are quite willing to apply ‘Support the Troops’ stickers to their bumpers while blandly and mechanically saying ‘Thank you for your service’ to men in uniform but to ask them to ante up was just too much. Sadly, the equally calculating Obama seems little different even if he is the smartest guy in the room rather than the dumbest as was his predecessor.

 

VONROCK

3:49 AM ET

May 29, 2010

Road Building

In building a road to battle, could that swath somehow doze pakistan into a turnpike. it wouldn't be like warring on them, just removing a corrupted old stump that started this mess and is in the way of finishing it.

I'm hardly in the know as the commentators previous, they seem to be versed. but I do wonder as to whats stirred the nest in that region, I know it wasn't just the Soviets.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

10:08 PM ET

May 30, 2010

What the fighting's all about

Speaking of money, there are competing plans to condemn Pashtunistan for gas pipeline and autobahn right of way between FSU Central Asia and subcontinent markets.

Beyond the petro and transportation mafias, Islam has been in a tizzy since Napolean, trying to figure out why the euros always defeat the holy warriors in battle and politics. Once the umma, ulema, shieks and generals can be re-sync'd to regain military sovereignty, the caliphs and moguls will trend back to calling fatwas for jihad between factions, as in Pakistan. The Sauds and the Hashemites have competing claims, old fueds and long memories, for instance. Or the Kurd thing, Shia, Sufi, Punjab... You get the idea. We're in the way of some serious quarrels.

Pashtunistan, or more broadly the Indus, Kabul and Kunar river watersheds dominated by Pashtuns, plus Wazir and Belushi cousins, is where multicultural Brit-Indian raj pushed back into the 'land of the pure', as moslem Pakistan was called. (Shades of Napolean deja vu.) Islamabad, as heirs to the 1890 Durand Line land grab, believe they have to continue the Brit project of westward expansion, to gain strategic depth on India, and to push Persia back beyond Herat.

Oh yeah, 'Allah's bomb' is there too, re-dividing and multiplying, like in Magician's Nephew. I realize this isn't exactly an NIE, but our government won't let us read the ones we paid for.

 

ADMIRAL

12:19 AM ET

May 30, 2010

Don Bacon

Thank you Mr. Bacaon for being hands down the best and most honest poster on this site. I always look forward to what you have to say.

I am convinced that the war mongers are doing all they can to start a war with Iran. . We have already callapsed financially, and the economic collapse is under way as I write this.

39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy? In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011.

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March. This was an increase of almost 19 percent from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005.

Banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.

Wealth is draining out of the United States at an unprecedented rate.

U.S. government is projected to have a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit in 2010,

According to one new report, the U.S. national debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by the year 2015.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently told the U.S. government that they are going to need even more bailout money. So what does it say about the U.S. economy when the two “pillars” of the U.S. mortgage industry are government-backed financial black holes that the U.S. government has to relentlessly pour money into?

43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement. Tens of millions of Americans find themselves just one lawsuit, one really bad traffic accident or one very serious illness away from financial ruin.

The mayor of Detroit says that the real unemployment rate in his city is somewhere around 50 percent.

The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.

In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years.

Richard Russell, the famous author of the Dow Theory Letters, says that Americans should sell anything they can sell in order to get liquid because of the economic trouble that is coming.

1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005.

Thr US debt can never be paid off, nor can it be inflated away. We will see QE until the currency is replaced.

This is a small list of problems facing the US economy.

War with Iran is certain, and will require a national effort. Those who run the empire are salivating for the opportunity to start up the draft, ration resources, increase government power over the economy, etc...

 

SURESH SHETH

6:10 PM ET

May 30, 2010

NSS fails to recognize onset of second cold war

While it recognizes the limits of US power, this NSS refuses to acknowledge that second cold war has started in earnest, this time between US and China.

Fiscal and economic constraints by NSS fail to recognize the threat posed by mounting Chinese forex reserves that US helped to create when it opened up US consumer market to cheap Chinese products.

Now China has US by the tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products generate for them as a walk through any Walmart, Sears or Home Depot filled with cheap Chinese goods attests to and US government is hooked to huge investments that Chinese government makes in US treasuries.

China is also buying up world’s natural resources with its huge forex reserves which also will pose a challenge to the resource needs of future American generations as well as other nations. With ever increasing forex reserves, China is going to become a lender of last resort for many a countries and many a companies in the world, thereby accumulating corresponding political clout as well. Burying its head in the sand, NSS fails to recognize the massive significance of this impending change.

Nixon’s China embrace to counter Soviet Union has come back to haunt US with the rise of China to challenge US just as Reagan‘s embrace of Islamic fundamentalists to counter Soviet Union in 1980s Afghanistan came back to haunt US in the form of 9/11 attacks.

The West will desperately try to reverse the rise of China but will be largely unsuccessful. Little could Mao or even Deng have imagined that their followers will beat capitalists at their own game. Lenin used to say that ’capitalists will sell us the ropes with which we will hang them’. With the West selling such ropes (in the form of technology transfers), China has proved that Lenin quote quite prophetic.

 

WHATNOW

7:33 PM ET

May 31, 2010

Pick up the phone

It would hurt them too and it may start an internal revolt in China when all those workers become unemployed but all China would have to do is pick up the phone and start sell their US Treasuries. It would bring the West to its knees in one hour with out firing a single bullet. The rest of the World need to pick up some of the security tab. Why do we need to spend more then the rest of the world combined.

Our mistake was following Senator NO Jessie Helms. We may not have had 9/11 if we had supported the Peace Corp and teachers for children in Pakistan. I have heard the reason the locals send their children to the Tali-ban Islamic schools was because that was their only choice. If we did not have the money for schools and teachers then where did we get the money for the two wars we are fighting.

Don't get me wrong that I am a no war ever type. I supported going into Iraq because I thought President Chaney could win a war. Boy was I wrong. I believe you get in and get out. Daddy Bush was really smart with his Gulf War.

 

TYRTAIOS

10:07 PM ET

May 31, 2010

What up, WHATNOW?

What up, WHATNOW? Actually, last year China did reduce its short term T-bill holdings . . . but reinvested in long term treasury bills. In the future they will likely dump long term and buy short term again - it's called market adjustment.

I would imagine the NSS didn't forget about China's major holdings of treasuries, but understands China wouldn't dump massive amounts of treasury bills because the simple fact, reinforced by the problematic EURO, is the U.S. dollar is still the primary World reserve currency.

I would be more concerned, as you began to allude to, in what China is doing with their Common Wealth Fund that buys into U.S. corporations, with little transparency, such as when Chevron sold their stake to CNOOC in Sudan awhile back (which very well may hold, but somewhat unproven, extraordinary oil reserves). : )

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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