Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 10:08 AM

The last time I asked here what the hell was happening in Basra, I got a friend-of-a-friend note from a Marine there saying basically nothing. So I was intrigued to see an item today saying au contraire, mon frere. According to the head of security in Basra province, two Arab states (he didn't say which) are involved in planning and executing recent bombings there. (More here.) This is noteworthy, I think, because violent meddling by neighboring states is one of the key indicators of the unraveling of Iraq.
Why do you assume "a Marine" in Basra knows anything? I doubt be speaks Arabic, has Arab friends, or shops in Basra. He is holled up in a bunker, and nothing is happening at his secure FOB, which is all he cares about, that and his rotation date.
Regional low intensity conflict
Sounds like yet another step in the direction of regional warfare.
LIC in Lebanon, Yemen/Arabia, Iran, Eretz Kurdistan... Arabs vs Persians, Sunni vs Shia, Turk/Sunni vs Eretz Kurdistan...
Of course, 'low intensity conflict' has a different economic price tag in the oil region, than say in Mindanao.
I learned once, from someone smarter then I am, that you should believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see. That holds doublely true in an Arab country. While that Marine may not have a complete picture of what is going on, regardless of whether he is holled up in a bunker or out on patrol everyday I don't think I would put too much stock into the Iraqi media either. From what I have seen they have been wrong over and over again. Another thing to remember is the Arab mindset, leaking that there was a massive plot can sometimes be a face saving ploy. It makes it seem like the event was so big it was inevitable and there was nothing they could have done to stop it.
If two states are involved in bombings and attacks in Basra, then why isn't Iraq at War with those states? I mean, if a country invades and attacks, then its war, its not a police matter. So you have to wonder at the 'head of security in Basra province', if nothing else.
Unless something has changed since my days with the Naval Advisory Group in Vietnam, Marines have a tradition of living, and working closesly with their host country units they are attached to. I doubt this Marine officer is hunkered down in a bunker anywhere in Basara for you pilgrims stating such.
As for Arab countries that may be involved? Look to Syria,. Last year Iraq asked Damascus to hand over several Iraqis they said were giving financial aid to al-Qaeda and Ba'athists operating in Iraq - Damascus refused.
Than again, Basra always was a rough place. Maybe it's just gangs reasserting their territory and/or settling old scores?
Incidentally, a number of al-Sadar's JAM were wacked in Syria last year - unusual for a country so tightly controlled. I heard that from a former Marine that operates in the region and speaks Arabic.
No soldier lives or shops in Iraq.. And the Marines are not in some "super secure fob". The Marines have the privilege of working the closest with the Iraqi's partners. I just finished my tour in Iraq.
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