Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 8:09 AM

By chance, when I reached into my ragged black Land's End bag for my "subway reading file" during my commute home yesterday afternoon, out popped Military Capabilities for the Hybrid War: Insight from the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon and Gaza, by David E. Johnson of RAND Corp. I'd printed it out a few days ago and forgotten about it.
It is a good short summary piece, and speaks right to some of the questions I had after reading Col. Gentile's worries about the US Army's tank force. In Lebanon in 2006, Johnson concludes, the Israeli military "was largely incapable of joint arms fire and maneuver." Tank training especially had been neglected because it had been "deemed largely irrelevant."
He also makes the interesting point that with state sponsorship, it is relatively easy for an armed non-state group to make the transition from irregular capability to a very lethal "hybrid capability." He points to the mujahedeen in Afghanistan in the 1980s when the U.S. government gave them Stingers anti-aircraft missiles, as well as to Iranian-aided Hezbollah in Lebanon.
I mention the Johnson piece as well because I have been critical of RAND's products in the past, and so think it is only fair to speak up when I see something I like. (That said, I do think that this piece is something the Army wants to hear, and I worry that too often that is the role RAND plays with our military.)
In other COIN news, I am impressed that David Kilcullen's forthcoming book on counterinsurgency, out from Oxford in June, is appropriately dedicated to Dave Dillege and Bill Nagle, the founders of the Small Wars Journal. If you are not regularly checking that website, you should be, little grasshoppers.
And as long as we are on the subject of counterinsurgency and coincidence, yesterday I was looking for something in my office, and by chance picked up Russell Weigley's History of the United States Army. And right there on page 161, in his discussion of the forgotten Seminole War, I saw this:
A historical pattern was beginning to work itself out: occasionally the American Army has had to wage a guerrilla war, but guerrilla war is so incongruous to the natural methods and habits of a stable and well-to-do society that the American Army has tended to regard it as abnormal and to forget about it whenever possible. Each new experience with irregular warfare has required, then, that appropriate techniques be learned all over again.
That comment makes me think that Col. Gentile's concern may be misplaced, that the tendency of the U.S. Army is to lean too much toward conventional capabilities -- a point Andrew Krepinevich also made in The Army and Vietnam. So the more pressing issue may still be whether the military is taking counterinsurgency seriously enough.
Well Tom as you quite imagine I think your assertion that the US Army isnt taking Coin serious enough is a bit off the mark to say the least. In fact it has taken Coin as pretty much the only thing, and for some good reasons due to the operational demands on the army with Iraq and Afghanistan.
I also think you draw on a trope instead of a better understanding of history. The trope being a reduction of the of the Weigley thesis that the Coin crowd has latched onto: that the US Army only wants to do big battles at the expense of irregular warfare. If you read Weigley in its entirety you would of course seen that what his book is really about is wrestling with the problem of utility of military force in the post world war II era of nuclear weapons. Too, Weigley wrote his classic as the US was just coming out of the Vietnam war where the question of utility of force in that war certainly was on his mind. Weigley's book in all of its brilliance has been seriously challenged recently by an excellent review of it by scholar Brian Linn in the April 2002 issue of the Journal of Military History. You may want to have a look at Linn's criticism of Weigley's work.
With regard to the American Army and Vietnam and Krepinevich's hugely important but deeply flawed book on it, shoot Tom there has been much scholarship done on the topic since his work was first published that seriously questions his thesis and argument. In fact a close reading of the scholarly literature of the history of the Vietnam War shows that the majority of scholarly historians are not in agreement with the Krepinevich argument. There is still a minority of historians who accept it, but they are in the minority. Suggest you have a look at Gary Hess’s excellent book-length historiographical sketch of the literature and also Andy Birtle’s award winning Journal of Military History article of last year titled “PROVN and the Historians.”
Lastly and with regard to Dave Johnson’s absolutely superb recent Rand analysis on Lebanon and Gaza I am not clear how you can end this post, Tom, questioning my concern about leaning too heavily toward Coin, and at the same time highlighting Dave’s piece since one of his main arguments is that the reason why the Israeli Army had problems in 2006 was due to an almost complete focus on Coin to the detriment of combined arms competencies.
One thing we are in agreement on is the excellence of SWJ blog.
gian
I think it is imposturous for anyone to say that our Army’s skills in Armor/Cavalry are not vanishing before our eyes. I left command of a Cavalry troop over a year ago, and I can tell you first hand we did not focus on TCGST/BGST regularly, nor did we concentrate on conducting Security Operations to be able to “Push or Pull” Reconnaissance. We are focusing on the 50 meter target (COIN), and we will pay the price over time if we fail to remember what the capabilities of the Armor/Cavalry CORP are. The Cavalry has always led from the front, providing critical intelligence to confirm PIR’s, or to help develop COA’s for higher HQs. As with any sport you play, if you don’t practice, or play regularly your skill diminishes, the argument can be made that Armor/Cavalry skills are diminishing rapidly and before long they may just vanish. The Army has Captain’s and Staff Sergeant’s who have never maneuvered section’s/platoon’s, or a company against an opposing force in training or in combat. We have Field Grade officers who have never maneuvered a battalion. We are truly losing our skills, and we have to be prepared to be able to start from square one in the near future. If we do not remember quickly the price we pay could be very high, and the stables will close, the barn will be out of hay, and our horses will be dead, and the Cavalrymen will be lost forever.
Gian,
There were other reasons why the IDF had problems other than the focus on Coin. Trying to implement EBO for example, the lack of strategic direction from the War Cabinet, lack of clear termination and end state, and so forth. I am sure you know this already. I always mention 34 Days as the best book on that war. What are your thoughts?
correct, coin focus was not the only cause
Soldiersdiary:
Yes to be sure there were other problems that contributed to their drubbing and not just a near-only focus on Coin. It was a significant cause but not the only one. My sentence in my previous post should have been qualified with the acknowledgment that there where other causes as you point out, EBO, and some cooky notions about post-modernist architecture which produced rediculous orders and mission statements to tactical commanders. "34 Days" to be sure is excellent. I also have been quite fond of Andrew Exum's excellent battle analyis of the war at the tactical level.
Thanks for clarifying.
gian
kill them all fails, but hold it all can be just as useless
There is a reason we tend to forget about counterinsurgency: we don't like thinking about the bloody conflicts that accompanies it. Counterinsurgency, led by a foreign occupying force, is a relic of the imperial era. Related to this antipathy for drawn out conflict is the rationale for colonialism's collapse: It became easier and easier to mobilize against, largely because of economics, weapons, communications and nationalism. After bungling the post-invasion stage in both Iraq/Afghanistan, a US-manned counterinsurgency effort was probably entirely appropriate. But in Afghanistan it is just as possibly counterproductive. The US regained momentum in Iraq by helping balance the antagonists against each other, forcing them into a stalemate. In Afghanistan, we have no such clear opportunities or levers of influence. Hopefully by now, we realize that brute force is a suspect means of influencing any population. The parties are geographically separated much more so than those in Iraq (it appears to me--maybe I'm wrong) and consequently have lesser reason to back down or succumb to centralized authority. The Northern Alliance controlled wide swathes of the country for years under de facto Taliban sovereignty. The Taliban represent a majority ethnic group rather than an increasingly hopeless, violent minority (a la Sunnis). Afghanistan is admittedly complex, so it's hard to bash either administration for its decisions. But Afghanistan is not used to centralized authority--all the more if that authority is foreign. All each group is looking for--if not perpetual war--is a weak state in which all groups are restrained. In other words, the outcome might be "Chaosistan" regardless of our efforts. The US does not, and likely cannot, play such a unifying role. We're only at war with the people we disenfranchised. More and more, I'm thinking Afghanistan is a black hole. Unless the Obama team can do engineer a political transformation equally as crucial as the Sunni flip, I have little confidence. The Pakistanis are the major unknown variable: we don't know how far Taliban authority can spread without active Pakistani support from the highest levels. The public signs look good on that score, but I don't think the Pakistanis even understand this place.
You're right that factions in Iraq were not as geographically separate. I believe that, in too many instances, we actually saw apparent lines and divisions under a micro-scope, often overstating, and inadvertently magnifying them.
While at the same time, we failed to appreciate and manage historical and cultural lines we did not want to accept, such as between Iraq and Iran. The ancient Haj trail between Qom/Najaf/Mecca is immutable, and preceded by the more ancient Silk Road paths. How to understand and manage these age-old complex realities, when we are just there for a limited purpose and time, is a big unresolved question, much like the extra-national history, relationships and pathways between Kandahar and Quetta.
Too many times, you could scratch a little deeper on any Sunni, Shia or Kurd and find deep and enduring family lines and experiences inconsistent with our expectations of definitive lines and divisions. For a reasonable future in Iraq, I pray that the things that the very real things that unite will be stronger than the very real things that divide.
Not so in Afghanistan where, as you note, the things that unite are very minor indeed and those that divide, very major. The hope for any unity most lies in the rapidly growing urban areas, where the urban context lays a substantial foundation for either unity or deep chaos. Still, finding a national framework that balances the interests of markedly different urban and rural populations is a continual experiment in all poor, overcrowded, and rapidly urbanizing areas.
I have become deeply interested, of late, in the complexity of functional societies, and the many complex and interwoven lines of divisions and unity, commonality and discordance on which their real success is predicated. Trying to mirror, amplify or recreate those essential systems of lines in areas with broken or non-existent ones, and where we have little contextual understandings or frameworks, like in Afghanistan, seems to be the unravelling of all the otherwise well-intentioned COIN efforts, and consistent post-conflict failures.
For COIN to actually work effectively, it must first find an effective balance between nascent technical/project capabilities, and these complex lines and relationships in which they are actually going to be placed into. Like a stick in a fast moving stream, where is it really going to go? Downstream, or trapped in an eddy?
Amidst all of that, I do not believe that the military, as presently structured, can achieve a positive and effective COIN capability without substantial losses in other capabilities. It is not a Non-Zero Choice.
Kudos to Tom for the Tank picture. Any excuse is worthwhile.
Colonel Gentile:
You don't agree with the following as the sound definition of doctrine?: : = )
This space that you look at, this room that you look at, is nothing but your interpretation of it. Now, you can stretch the boundaries of your interpretation, but not in an unlimited fashion, after all, it must be bound by physics, as it contains buildings and alleys. The question is, how do you interpret the alley? Do you interpret the alley as a place, like every architect and every town planner does, to walk through, or do you interpret the alley as a place forbidden
to walk through? This depends only on interpretation.
Matt Matthews, "We Were Caught Unprepared," page 25.
used as a part of a process that executes a strategy. That is where the issues lies over its modern utility.
Although I would ask that if TRADOCs echelon thinking with rigid vertical command, control and communications for the tank's use and with an archaic reliance on target identification by optics only fails to keep current with strategy then the tank becomes a tool with a mind no more advanced than when operating at the time of Patton.
(8)
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