Listening to Turkey’s foreign minister: The Ottoman past looks like the future

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, April 19, 2010 - 11:32 AM Share

By Daniel Kliman
Best Defense chief Turkish affairs correspondent

When Turkey's Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations one night last week, Iran dominated his remarks. He was emphatically opposed to more robust sanctions, arguing that instead what is needed is "diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy." Davutoglu also suggested that a glimmer of hope remains for negotiations with Iran, though he didn't provide any details. In the past, Turkey has served as a mediator between Iran and countries concerned about its nuclear program. Davutoglu played up Turkey's success in this role during his remarks. Could there be a Turkish initiative in the works? Stay tuned.

On Iraq, the FM was bullish. Calling Iraq a "mini-model of the Middle East," Davutoglu cast the recent elections there as a move away from sectarian politics. (Your mileage may vary, of course.)

Earlier this month, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Erdogan hammered Israel, labeling it "the principal threat to peace in the region today." Davutoglu avoided such language.

Omission can be telling. Davutoglu was silent on Turkey's prospects for EU membership. Combined with his ambitious vision for a transformed Middle East, it was clear that Turkey sees its destiny unfolding to the east and south, in lands once under Ottoman rule.

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JJH722

9:49 PM ET

April 19, 2010

Turkey drifts away--but not too much

The foreign policy that has accompanied Erdogan and his AJP to power is grounded more in some sort of Neo-Ottoman nostalgia--a bridge between east and west--than any real means of swaying the parties. It may be a shrewd, self-interested policy for Turkey at a time when the region's dynamics are shifting, but I wouldn't expect benefits to accrue to the United States. Considering that Obama gave Erdogan the go-ahead for mediation over a year ago, my faith in the power of Turkish persuasion is wearing thin. Erdogan's spirited defense of Omar al-Bashir also merits pause.

TYRTAIOS

10:02 PM ET

April 19, 2010

Is it Istanbul or Constantinople?

Ah yes, Turkey - inside my brain housing group is a world map (no power point slide, only a map) that shows me Turkey shares a common border with not only Iraq, but Syria, and Iran. A region they once ruled under the Ottoman Empire. Which immediately brings to mind the Kurds, refugees, and the PPK? No wonder Turkey is getting friendly with its neighbors now that the U.S. is supposedly striking the tent.

As a side bar note, Turkey's new friendship with Iran and Syria now leaves Israel with no regional allie, since relations between the two have soured.

However, as it always does - everything goes back to two issues, even for Turkey: the Israeli - Palestinian problem (along with Syria pressing for the return of the Golan), and Iran. I'm guessing when Iran goes nuclear (they will won't they?), the Saudi Kingdom may want to follow (maybe Egypt). It is sure bet Turkey will also want to acquire at least the ability to go nuclear also.

It might be prudent for the U.S. to press hard for Turkey's entrance into the EU, and the Europeans to accept them, as the West might gain some leverage through Turkey, who is seen as an honest broker in the Middle East - a broker that we may need very soon?

"Take me back to Constaninople, No you can't go back to Constantinople, Been a long time gone, Why did Constantinople get the works? That's nobody's busness but the Turks!" : )

JPWREL

12:08 AM ET

April 20, 2010

TYRTAIOS, I think Turkish

TYRTAIOS, I think Turkish relations with Israel have actually not deteriorated to the extent the alarmist press reports. Turkey has important commercial relations with Israel and not a few common interests. However, Turkey also sees itself as the logical power to supplant the over stretched and somewhat diminished Americans in the region and they are likely right. To exercise some influence in Iraqi, Syrian and Iranian circles they must not be too overtly aligned with Israel. My guess is the new relationship in going to be publicly more at arms length but quietly and behind closed doors not so different from the past particularly regarding intelligence sharing.

TYRTAIOS

4:06 AM ET

April 20, 2010

Ice Cream and Turkey

Oh yes, I've been told the Turkey-Israel downturn in relations has been overplayed by the Israeli press mon d'analyste militaire JPWREL. But I think you’ll also find that Turkey is slowly changing their past view of regional security ties with Israel, and in addition, some of what now drives their foreign policy is economics - Israel isn’t even among the top10 trading partners anymore with Turkey, which relegates Israel as less significant than once upon a time.

However, how many times have the generals changed Ankara's political heading? And I acknowledge the region is rife with rhetoric in public while back channel much else can and does go on.

Anecdotal comment: In the southeastern part of Turkey is Sanliurfa, the birthplace of Abraham, and regardless of faith, one can visit the cave in which he was born. Not far away is Harran, and the vendors there actually sell a sort of ice cream that doesn't melt in the heat - at least I'm an expert on that! : )

WALKING WOUNDED

11:16 PM ET

April 19, 2010

Erdogan and the Generals could agree that a Turkish bomb...

Erdogan and the Generals could agree that a Turkish bomb would be in the nation's interest. At least in principle. Maybe that's what's making the PM so testy towards the uniforms, that they won't let him in on where the program sits?

I can't imagine a General Staff that doesn't have a nuclear contingency plan, and a sharp weather eye on any local rival or hegemon that might get there first. If the primary mission is to deter foreign militaries before hostilities even start, nothing does that quite as well, and the fuel cycle cost is quite the bargain these days.

Google 'Turkey, Nuclear'; there's enough long-term activity to raise parallels to Iran. Back in cold war days, we kinda looked the other way for India and Israel. A stolen march, help from Brazil and some opacity could be a bargaining position with NATO/EU, or a fallback position.