Petraeus on our four wars: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Wednesday, March 17, 2010 - 11:43 AM Share

By Matthew Irvine
Best Defense chief congressional correspondent

Gen. David Petraeus, appearing before the Senate Armed Services committee on Tuesday, offered up several of his greatest hits. Most notably, he introduced a new Afghan-centric remix of his 2007 classic, telling the panel that, "The going is likely to get harder before it gets easy... the enemy will fight back." Several senators sang back-up.

Discussion of Iraq focused on the aftermath of recent national elections and the status of U.S. forces in the country. Asked by Sen. Jack Reed (D., RI) if he expects the new governing coalition to take many months to form, the CENTCOM chief responded, "Yes, we do." (Frankly, BG and L'il Wayne did that tune first, and better.)

During Sen. Lieberman's (I-Ct.) questioning, Petraeus detailed the possible addition of a seventh brigade headquarters in the northern city of Kirkuk beyond the August deadline while reaffirming the target force level of 50,000 troops by the end of summer.

Identifying Pakistan's western Federally Administered Tribal Area as "al-Qaeda's principal sanctuary," Petraeus promised a long-term American commitment to Pakistani counterinsurgency efforts against the Taliban. "We are going to be a steadfast partner. We are not going to do to Pakistan what we've done before, such as Charlie Wilson's War."

For an encore, Petraeus discussed his latest side project, Yemen, which he has been working on with his label-mates, the Special Operations Command ... Seeing Yemen as an emerging terrorist operations hub, CENTCOM has been expanding aid to Sana'a. The likely name of the new album will be "preventive counterinsurgency operations." Expect heavy support from Petraeus's label, which he said will "double U.S. security assistance to the country in the coming year."

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

EXPLORE:AFGHANISTAN, AL QAEDA, IRAQ, MILITARY, PAKISTAN

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ROBERT VANCE

6:24 PM ET

March 17, 2010

No new album; just a greatest hits collection

The US military already has "preventive counterinsurgency operations”. We do preventive COIN with maritime security operations, theater security cooperation, security force assistance, and foreign internal defense. Take a break from the CENTCOM AOR for a month and report on what the rest of the combatant commands are doing to keep the Nation pursuing happiness in the malls and ballparks.

ROBERT VANCE

9:41 PM ET

March 17, 2010

"Besides, it pays well."

It pays especially well if you’re a mercenary--sorry, I mean a contractor--doing the job a service member should do at five times the cost.

WALKING WOUNDED

8:04 PM ET

March 17, 2010

Everyone expects Kirkuk-Mosul draw-down last

The question is WHEN the need to keep US muscle on the mission there, in addition to our presence in Baghdad and at the big airbases, WILL start to impinge on the general trend-line of demonstrated US departure. Iraqis in general expect slippage in all schedules, but their perception of the US withdrawal timeline is very political and lies across an exposed high-voltage nerve.

Sure, we will jigger the troops and rename combat forces as trainers or security, play numbers games with our contractors being payrolled thru Baghdad and use short rotations or offshore R&R, as per the Columbia COIN shuffle. But that only gets us into mid 2011. At some point the new gov't is going to be faced with mounting criticism over hosting a huge CIA and JSOC presence, in addition to our continued occupation of the strategic air bases on their turf.

If the GOI doesn't continue to promise its voting public and parliament something that looks to them like honor and FULL sovereignty, the criticism will weaken that gov't over time. I just don't see a democratic GoIraq renegotiating the US withdrawal in a substantial way, without going strong-man, or facing crippling protests. Whichever way Iraq goes, the Egyptian opposition and succession will be watching.

Israel's military sponsor running huge operations in the two most populous Arab countries is not a stable condition, and Iraqi's have already got withdrawal momentum. See the FP string on Petraeus' re occupied Palestine; over at Cable and ME Channel.

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

8:26 PM ET

March 17, 2010

Israeli-Palestine, Somalia

Anyone have any idea if Gen. Petraeus addressed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during his hearing?

And what about the threat emanating from Somalia? If Yemen is on the General's mind, it would seem logical to include Somalia as well...after all, the country is practically governed by an Al'Qaeda offshoot. Or will it take an attack from a Somali terrorist to actually get this on America's agenda?

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

TYRTAIOS

9:57 PM ET

March 17, 2010

Somalia

What about Somalia? I continually hear people talk about the "direct" connection between the al-Shabab group and al-Qaeda. I would be most interested in you putting forward source material actually qualifying that?

Primarily al-Shabab is fighting a civil war and probably gets aid where they can, and like the Taliban pre-9/11, do harbor some with "alleged" ties to al-Qaeda, such as
Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who we wacked earlier, which only pissed them off more - why we didn't snatch him and extradite him instead of turning him into a martyr is beyond me.

Considering Yemen has become a refuge for Somalis seeking asylum from their own war torn country, it might be prudent to take baby steps and concentrate on Yemen first while looking for a political solution to Somalia, which as much as I admire Gen. Petraeus, he ain't got.

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

3:02 AM ET

March 18, 2010

How about the fact that

How about the fact that Al'Shabab stated explicitly that it's an official affiliate of Al'Qaeda Central? Shabab's leadership said this, not some lonely foot-soldier who wants to stir the pot. Is that enough proof for you?

TYRTAIOS

4:06 AM ET

March 18, 2010

Show Me the Beef

Because I am familiar with the Hawiye clan, which many in Al-Shabaab are members, as well as several others, and I am further aware there are internal squabbles between the clans, and the leadership, it isn't clear to me just who it was that issued that proclamation.

It is my estimation that some members have contact with al-Qaeda, but as a group I’m still open to question whether Al-Shabaab is directly linked to al-Qaeda Central.

Bottom line: I stand my initial request - show me the beef, but remember, I didn't claim you were wrong. only saying so, doesn't make it so. My advice: move slowly on this, and I mean that sincerely.

WALKING WOUNDED

5:47 AM ET

March 18, 2010

5 Somalis down in N. Yemen...

Dunno if this below means anything, but it seems pertinent to your quest for evidence.

It's hard to fathom here, but out there where they love to hate the US, a conflict con man might get gain face thru a convincing claim of AQ affiliations, whether they exist or not. Kinda like Italian attitude in our Eastern cities.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hlVBMnBrupvjo7jGRt8YVQaoaDIw

SANAA — Yemen said on Tuesday that DNA tests have confirmed that five bodies found in the northern mountains were those of Somalis and not of Europeans kidnapped last year.
"DNA tests were conducted in Sanaa for the five bodies and it has been confirmed that they were the remains of Somalis, not Europeans," a security official told AFP.
He said that the tests were done "with help from German experts."

SOLDIERSDIARY

9:12 AM ET

March 18, 2010

lack of knowledge

Depetris,
Google UCP (Unified Command Plan), look at whose AOR Israel (and occupied territories), and Somalia fall in. Then you can post another comment explaining why the CENTCOM commander did not talk about it.

TYRTAIOS

4:28 PM ET

March 18, 2010

The Body Count

Walking Wounded - Again, too thin of evidence. as Yemen is home to a large Somali diaspora that is continuing to grow. I will state it again, most likely there are individuals or elements that have had relations with al-Qaeda, but it still isn't clear the Harakat Shabaab as I first knew them or the Al-Shabaab group as most call them, are linked directly to al-Qaeda - damn it! : )

WALKING WOUNDED

8:32 PM ET

March 17, 2010

four wars

One per star? The P is Great, but isn't concentration of effort a basic principle?

Sounds like his command is due for divestment & stock-split, so CENTCOM West can compete for the growing conflict opportunities on the Egypt-Somalia line.

Under-capitalization is always a concern for a growth business.

JPWREL

11:05 PM ET

March 17, 2010

And I might add

And I might add undercapitalized, phenomenally overleveraged and running an astronomically negative cash flow. While the opportunities for top line growth seem everywhere nothing seems to ever make it to the bottom line. Earnings are all smoke and mirrors and promises by management for profitable future.