Iraq: Too soon to tell anything

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, March 8, 2010 - 11:42 AM Share

But here is my favorite phrase of the day: "old-school Khomeinist." Skew that kabob on the bar b, ayatollah. Say Maliki done changed the rules! The turnout was lower than 2005, which doesn't strike me as a good sign.

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:MIDDLE EAST, IRAQ

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JWING

8:36 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Turnout mixed depending upon group

There was already a drop in voting from 2005 to 2009. The trend was that Kurds continued to come out in large numbers because they have established leadership, parties and united interests. Sunnis came out in high numbers to make up for their boycott in 2005. The reason for the drop overall however is because the Shiite majority has come out less. That's due to cynicism. Their governments have simply not delivered on developments, jobs, services, etc. Southern Iraq was the poorest part of the country under Saddam, and is still the poorest part today.

RILEY SISE

10:10 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Skew it on the Bar-b

Best use of hip hop lyrics in coverage of the Iraqi election so far.

JWING

12:54 AM ET

March 9, 2010

More on turnout

Early reports by the Iraqi Election Commission show that voting was actually down in every province this year.

RBB

11:42 AM ET

March 9, 2010

WSJ is reporting something different

Voting in Anbar, Ninevah, Saleh-din, and Diyala are all up from 2005 (not surprising due to the 05 Sunni boycott), but also above the national average.

Also, a lower voter turnout is not necessarily a flashing neon warning sign. You will always have a higher turnout when people have their first real opportunity to cast a meaningful ballot. Every subsequent election carries less interest, and may well mark a sense of routine.

The Iranians have to be scratching their heads why it is taking the Iraqis so much longer to count their ballots. They must not be as smart as the Iranian regime, which had the vote counted nearly instantaneously....

JWING

7:30 PM ET

March 9, 2010

Voting down across iraq

In Dec 2005 76% voted for parliament. In 2010 62% voted. Voting was down in every province. Cynicism at a government that hasn't improved on services and jobs plus a campaign dominated by Baathism rather than anything substantive were the probable causes of the drop.

JWING

8:07 PM ET

March 9, 2010

Here are the numbers

Voter Turnout For 2005 vs 2010 Parliamentary Elections
Anbar ? vs 61%
Babil 80% vs 62%
Baghdad 70% vs 53%
Basra 74% vs 57%
Dhi Qar 72% vs 60%
Diyala 75% vs 62%
Dohuk 92% vs 80%
Irbil 95% vs 76%
Karbala 70% vs 62%
Maysan 73% vs 50%
Muthanna 66% vs 61%
Najaf 73% vs 61%
Ninewa 70% vs 66%
Qadisiyah 65% vs 63%
Salahaddin ? vs 73%
Sulaymaniya 84% vs 73%
Tamim 86% vs 73%
Wasit 68% vs 60%

The numbers for Anbar and Salahaddin provided by the Election Commission were HIGHLY suspect. 98% for Anbar for example???

The main drop in 2010 was in the Shiite south. They came out in lower numbers in the 2009 election, while Sunnis came out in higher numbers to make up for the 2005 boycott. The Kurds have always voted the most, but even this year their participation dropped.

IMFB

12:28 PM ET

March 9, 2010

Turnout

I think this might be a bit overblown. Even though turnout was down percentage-wise, over a million more votes were cast.

HUNTER

2:54 PM ET

March 9, 2010

Can't help thinking

I wish I was a vendor selling plastic boxes with blue tops....or maybe zip ties.