I think Mexico is the wild card in our national security situation, which is one reason I like carrying reports by my CNAS colleagues Bob Killebrew and Jennifer Bernal-Garcia about drugs, gangs and such. Along those lines, John McCreary's NightWatch reports that

Local TV news in Texas reported that the Zetas have left Reynosa tonight. They've moved about 150 miles west to Nuevo Laredo. Sources reported the Zetas want to take over the city and make it their base of operations. The U.S. Consulate General's office already has confirmed a gun battle in Nuevo Laredo. ... According to the TV news cast the Zetas are already calling in reinforcements. Some 700 Zetas from around Mexico are joining the 500 already brought to the area last week. The Gulf Cartel also called in reinforcements last week and reportedly joined forces with La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and the Sinaloa Cartel."

McCreary's conclusion: "If this report is accurate, Laredo, Texas, needs to prepare for a spillover of violence and an influx of drugs."

More here.

gliuoo/flickr

 
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CMEYERGO

6:01 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Put our Army back on the border

Yes, the U.S. Army protected our Mexican border until WW II, and still has a dozen bases along the border.

Perhaps Mr. Ricks will upset the billionaires who sponsor his organization by suggesting this obvious solution. As most here know, flooding the USA with cheap labor has been key to driving down wages, except those in the military.

I'm not talking about urban areas, but the remote areas that our BP does not patrol today because its too dangerous. Here are the details you will never find in the NY Times or WashPost.

http://www.g2mil.com/border.htm

Please read that before posting absurd comments that using our troops to defend the border is against the law or is unwise. If Obama did this, his poll numbers would jump 10 points.

 

TOM RICKS

8:09 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Billionaires?

You must know something I don't. If you are talking to them, please tell them to cough up! Also, please let me know who these guys are.
Thanks,
Tom

 

JPWREL

9:10 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Illegal immigration and drug

Illegal immigration and drug smuggling are the inevitable symptoms of a society and government that cannot respond to the needs of its own society. Mexico needs a real revolution not another fake revolution like most Latin American countries have had at one time or another that merely gave up one set of crony crooks for another. Mexico needs the kind of revolution that pulls the whole rotten system out by the roots and replaces it with a new egalitarian, anti-clerical society. Canada would be a good model where the country’s riches are shared more evenly with a workable mixture of social policy and capitalism. As it is now Mexico’s legacy of wealth has been stolen by a vicious fat cat oligarchy. And let us not forget that it is the American demand for drugs that has contributed greatly to horrific mess in the first place.

 

TYRTAIOS

9:33 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Vive la revolution!

JPWREL - I can't resist, though I must admit, I have my tongue-in-cheek.

A country that cannot control its border might be considered historically as a non-country, i.e. the United States?

In addition, speaking of societies: North Americanos fuel the narco industry in this hemisphere and afterall, Mexico is only facilitating that appetite, while at the same time America is addressing its own social ills within, as concerns the junkie, by increasingly building more prisons - quite the blossoming industry in which California alone, whose economy is more than Mexico's, spends more on inmate population than education.

Mexico's problems are America's problems and vice-versa. Maybe we need a revolution - join me on the barricades? : )

 

JPWREL

10:57 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Revolution is more my fathers

Revolution is more my fathers style than mine. :-)

The problem with revolutions is that they usually end up replacing a rotten system with one that is even worse. The two exceptions to that rule are the English Revolution of 1688 that gave final form to Parliamentary primacy in a Constitutional Monarchy and the American Revolution one hundred years later. The English Revolution was an event that loomed large in the minds of the founders of this Republic who more accurately through a civil war than a revolution replaced a pretty benign and tolerant system for the era with an even better one. Unfortunately, for most countries revolution has led to tyranny largely because it is the character of its leadership that defines the character of a revolution. For two hundred years Mexico has existed within a complete leadership vacuum so perhaps a revolution is not such a great idea. Maybe there is no solution, maybe Mexico remains dysfunctional forever and we must line our southern borders with troops.

 

CMEYERGO

6:29 AM ET

March 9, 2010

Warren Buffet

Mr. Ricks, may I suggest that you use google to learn about your employer. It seems "Foreign Policy" is an arm of the Washington Post, owned by the wealthy K. Graham family and Berkshire, owned by America's richest billionaire -- Warren Buffet.

If you really want to upset them, I suggest you do a story about the April 1st deadline for this year's H1-B1 visa program. This allows corporate America to hire 85,000 skilled desperate foreign workers each year so they don't have to hire unemployed Americans. Obama talks about the need for an expensive jobs program, how about a "program" that costs nothing. Cancel the H1-B1 visa program, something 99% of Americans would applaud, yet corporate media like the Wash Post will not even mention the idea. Why? Does the Washpost have dozens of Indian IT types working 80 hours a week for $20,000 a year?

 

ERIC_STRATTONIII

8:06 PM ET

March 10, 2010

Decriminalize

Decriminalize the majority of drugs to help decrease the growing prison population and money for drug cartels and even lower our own crime rate, enforce the border with troops if needed and increase immigration to the US, with people who have advanced degrees and special skills getting priority. Brain drain everyone I say and help them to help the US.

 

JPWREL

6:24 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Beware disaster area

Living 50 miles north of the Mexican border here in the Tucson area we get to see the spill over consequences of one of the worlds largest ‘failed sates’ - Mexico. In my view Mexico, a nation of once great potential and promise has sacrificed itself to the gods of avarice and state sponsored villainy. They are in their own way no more capable of self-government than Afghanistan or Somalia. Hamid Karzai and his trash pals would be perfectly at home in Sonora or Tamaulipas.

Mexico’s drug trade is organized around traditional crime ‘tribes’ and is protected by the corruption of the police, army, state and Federal government. The army makes periodic ‘fake’ forays against them and recently the Mexican Navy, which is considered, less tainted by the drug cartels has also arrested a few smugglers. But this is largely orchestrated to give the Americans appearance of law and order. This situation is not so different from mafia chieftain’s disciplining some rouge elements that would rock the boat too much thus endangering profits.

Mexico is over populated and severely under-educated which may suit the Catholic Church but has virtually destroyed the economic viability of the country. Income distribution is totally out of whack and in order to exploit the ‘fast money’ of drugs they have failed to re-invest in their energy infrastructure, hence declining production and revenues. Additionally, they are fast becoming an ecological disaster area rivaling Russia and China in their abuse of the eco-system, resources and the splendid natural gifts of the country.

Rather than invading Iraq we likely should have invaded Mexico, demobilized the army and police, imprisoned the members of the government and aided in giving Mexico a new beginning. Yes, I am kidding but in fact Mexico is going to have a much greater impact upon our future security than Iraq could ever have so on second thought maybe I am not kidding.

 

DANZTAR

1:25 AM ET

March 9, 2010

Hope you are indeed NOT

Hope you are indeed NOT kidding. I'm mexican and really hate this situation. I'd be more than happy if you guys invade us and give us a fresh start, That won't take away our mariachis, salsa or our beautiful beaches, so please by my guest!

 

TYRTAIOS

8:23 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Elvis & the War on Drugs

The last poll I saw indicated only about 15 percent of the American population believe the war on drugs is working. There is also another unrelated poll, at least I think it's unrelated, that states about the same percentage of Americans think Elvis is still alive - nice picture choice!

It has been explained to me that Mexico is close to being our second largest trading partner (at least third), but only has a GDP of about 1/4 of ours (and dropping), yet supplies the majority of our imported oil, second only to Canada, and in addition, is our largest source of cheap labor.

Taking all that into consideration, one would think Mexico would historically have been viewed by past American governments as a foreign policy issue instead of as a domestic problem that spills over our border, and is thrown primarily into the lap of the DEA., and Homeland Security.

 

JSINAIKO

10:48 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Let's Not Overstate It

I was in Mexico last week. Mexico City, Cancun/Isla Mujares. Calderon showed up in Cancun when I was there - inspecting something or another. Lots of troops on the streets, but I've seen crazier security in the US.

Yeah, the border is a mess. Yeah, there are barbaric gangsters - hillbillies really - who commit horrific acts - beheadings, etc. The government hasn't been able to do much about it and it continues to get worse with some of the cartels acting as de-facto governments in some areas.

Wait - are we talking inner-city Chicago in the 80s or Northern Mexico?

Still, for the many, many millions of people who live there life goes on with only a tiny fraction, in limited parts of the country affected by the violence

It reminds me of a less extreme version of Northern Ireland in the early 90s. Yes, there was a low-intensity war going on there. Yes, some areas were pretty dangerous. Yes, it was devastating for the people affected by the violence. But for the majority of people in Northern Ireland, life also went on. Kids went to school the mail got delivered, the buses ran more or less on time. I remember being asked what life was like there when back here in the US visiting. "Can you rent videos?" "Yes." "Where do you go to rent them?" "uh, Blockbuster." People assumed the place looked like Beruit in 1985, or Berlin in 1945. Not even on the same planet. Silly stuff.

So let's not over-do the angst. It's bad, but it certainly isn't irreversible, and it doesn't appear that Mexico is in danger of collapsing into anarchy any time soon. As I said above, the situation there isn't too different than big city living in the USA a few years ago; Chicago used to have about 975 murders a year in the 80s. Now we are down to under 400.

If the US approached the drug problem as a medical and social issue instead of a legal one I GUARANTEE everyone that the cartels and the violence attendant to their activities will die very, very quickly.

This requires some thought, some clear thinking, and some nerve. But it is NOT a severe (or even mild) national security problem.

In that light Tom, stop acting like the panicky and lily-livered Dick Cheney in the wake of 9/11.

The mob pretty much ran Chicago in the 20s and again in the 50s. I don't think the army was required. This is a very bad crime wave - it's no more a national security issue than Al Capone or John Dillinger were.

Calm down, keep your nerve, and approach this in a problem-solving way, not with a battle-axe.

 

TYRTAIOS

11:40 PM ET

March 8, 2010

Neither Understate it!

JSINAIKO - Allow me to point-out that over the years, Mexican migration, and the money sent back home, along with NAFTA trade integration, has caused the Mexican economy to become increasingly dependent upon the U.S.

Keeping that in mind, the economic recession has not only seen a decrease in migration flow across the border north and with that, its diminished remittances back south, but we've also seen a substantial repatriation which has caused even larger, dire perhaps, economic and social problems in Mexico.

This alone has ramifications that could cause an economic collapse, or at the least doesn't allow for increase in pay-rolls to prevent political and military officials from corruption related to the narco trade - the crux of what is fueling a portion of the debate.

My point being, the sky may not be falling, but there are strategic issues here that have only been given shank's mare resources and attention, seemingly overshadowed by Iraq and now Afghnaistan/Pakistan.

 

JSINAIKO

12:53 AM ET

March 9, 2010

Agreed...

But it isn't a national security threat. The middle class there is as squeezed as it is here, but I don't notice the Canadians worrying too much about us.

Mexico isn't the most stable place on the face of the earth, but it isn't even close to looking like there might be a collapse. Yes, the most economically disadvantaged sector is getting hit worse because dough from the US is drying up, but poor folks here are getting creamed too - and again, nobody seems to be worried about a collapse here.

Question - what are the per-capita murder rates in the US and Mexico? Is it higher in Mexico? Probably, but I don't know that for a fact. I bet they are fairly close.

My point is that we live in a pretty damn violent society too, and much of that violence is - just like in Mexico - confined to particular segments of society and is much higher in some locations than others.

I wonder if the grizzly nature of the killing - beheadings, acid baths, etc. - isn't making it look a lot worse than it actually is in terms of its affect on the state and society as a whole.

I live less than 2000 meters from what is statistically the highest crime street corner in the entire USA - 55th and State - and my life is fine and almost completely unaffected by what goes on over on the other side of Washing park (where the ill-fated 2016 Chicago Olympics were supposed to be).

 

CMEYERGO

6:17 AM ET

March 9, 2010

Much Higher Murder rate

Most USA cities have a murder rate of around 10 killed per 100,000 a year, although your Chicago downs 18.

Juarez, Mexico, across the river from El Paso has a rate of 107, the highest in the world. Funny how a quick internet search can answer questions for the lazy curious.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciudad_Ju%C3%A1rez

 

NUR AL-CUBICLE

5:52 PM ET

March 9, 2010

Hybrid Problem

This is yet another one of those hybrid problems:

US drug enthusiasts+thinking that arming and supporting Colombia was enough+scarce opportunities in Latin America for ambitious men from certain social strata+little social mobility+explosion of gun trade in the USA+Texas' freewheeling gun laws+corruption in Mexico+corruption in the USA+seduction of cash+people can't get ahead except in the underground economy+.....

However the two prime nettles are US drug enthusiasts and Texas law. But how do you intern millions of Americans? The first realistic step is to harshly restrict gun sales in the USA so Mexico can get a handle on the situation (like that will ever happen).

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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