Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

When I labored at the Wall Street Journal we used to refer to some front page stories on the economy or industrial production trends as "DBIs," which stood for "Dull But Important." I thought of that when reading a piece by Army Col. Chris Kolenda in the new issue of Joint Forces Quarterly.

Kolenda, who played a major role in the recent review of Afghanistan/Pakistan strategy, lays out a clear, coherent statement of what our current strategy is, and how it aims to achieve progress. The whole article is kind of smart but dull. That's fine with me. Sometimes important is dull.

There isn't a lot to quote in the article. Looking it over, this is the best I can do:

Bad governance -- the abuse of power for personal interest -- is a greater problem [than armed militants] in the eyes of Afghans. Nearly every conversation I have had with rural Afghans aligns with myriad surveys and analyses -- corruption and abuse of power are at or near the top of themes cited as major drivers of instability.

Tom again: This is in fact the biggest question I have about American policy in the war. I know what McChrystal intends to do with the Taliban. But I don't understand how the U.S. government intends to improve the behavior of the Karzai government. It is a puzzlement. Anyone care to enlighten me?

Tambako the Jaguar/flickr

 

JPWREL

12:17 PM ET

February 5, 2010

Simple answer

Sure, the answer to Afghan/Karzai corruption and incompetence is to invite the assorted tribal groupings assembled under the Taliban umbrella into the government in a meaningful way. Make it worth their while by giving in on an aggressive ISAF withdrawal timetable, cash and lots of it, in exchange for a quiet, indeed, secret protocol to dis-invite al-Qaida from Afghanistan. Additionally, recruit the Pakistani ISI whom the Afghan Taliban are more likely to trust to monitor and act as the go between for meaningful talks. Of course, we would have to make it worthwhile for the ISI, which means also lots more cash but a pittance in comparison to the flood of money we are now wasting. This is far more efficient than the asinine policy we currently are pursuing and would likely please our NATO partners to no end.

This would be an approach that the Romans and the British when governing at their best would have heartily endorsed rather than the stupidity that now stands for American foreign policy in the region. The chicken hawk neocon-Republicans may have wet dreams of endless war but the jaded American public does not share that view particularly when the economy is in the toilet. It is time for this country to begin managing its affairs like an adult and not an adolescent.

 

PATRICKOMILLER

2:30 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Can we trust the ISI?

Cash seems like a poor incentive to get the Taliban to cooperate with us. If this was about money, they would be spending their massive drug profits on luxury items, not war materiel.
Also, using the ISI as a go-between with our Afghan proxies seems like a tactic that has been tried before with bad results. Ultimately, the ISI will do what is good for Pakistan, not the US or NATO. Pakistan, at best, wants Afghanistan as a ally against India, and at worst, a weakened and fractured Afghanistan that cannot resist Pakistan's influence.

 

JPWREL

9:46 AM ET

February 6, 2010

I would have to agree that

I would have to agree that cash in and of itself is not much of a facilitator for the Taliban, at least the most extreme elements of the Taliban. One must remember that the Taliban are not a monolithic force but rather an assemblage of many different tribal associations with differing motives and agendas. This is why the Taliban need to be integrated into the government in Kabul and NATO forces withdrawn over an expedited timetable. Cash is a significant motivator for the Pakistani military and ISI and having the Taliban sharing power in Kabul meets many of their objectives.

We have a strong military hand but a very weak political hand in Afghanistan. This fact advantages the Taliban in that military superiority is only as good as political will backing it up. The public of the American led NATO coalition by the day are becoming more skeptical of the necessity of this war and the credibility of its leadership and execution. Consequently, as leader of the coalition we need to recognize this fact and exploit the differences among the Taliban themselves and reach some sort of political balance while we still have some shred of support from the public.

America in the past forty years has habitually entered into wars without clear fundamental policy goals compounded by an underestimation of the contingent problems and an overestimation of our own military/political capabilities. The war in Afghanistan is no different in having morphed itself from a justified anti-terrorist action against al-Qaida into a full-fledged repetition of Vietnam. It is now time to pull out all the stops and end this fiasco before it embarrasses us like our experience in Vietnam.

 

SMCI60652

12:56 PM ET

February 5, 2010

Changing their ways

"how the U.S. government intends to improve the behavior of the Karzai government"

Well for starters we have to remove "Karzai" from that sentence. The systematic dismantling of corruption for many Afghan governments to come will take patience.

What we've come to categorize as 'corruption' is the way society functions in Afghanistan (among other places).

Something tells me that our forefathers, who lived through the era of Tamany Hall and party bosses picking favored candidates in smoke-filled backrooms, would have been infinitely more mature about the multi-generational task of instilling fair-play standards in every day society in Afghanistan.

We on the other hand are a generation of "instant" oatmeal and flying wi-fi connections. Most of us can't seem to square the fact that societal evolution takes time... and patience is a strategic virtue in War.

 

GROUNDPOUNDER

1:16 PM ET

February 5, 2010

McChrystal and Karzai are Both Corrupt!

Stanley McChrystal is a despicable, contemptible lowlife who knowingly and willfully made false official statements in the U.S Army Ranger cover up of Pat Tillman’s death. Through his own actions he’s proven himself to be a liar and a man without honor or shame! He should have been given a general court martial, reduced in rank and forced to retire! But because the Army has losers for leaders, this sh*t bird was given another star and put in charge of goat screw in Afghanistan! McChrystal and the head goat-roper Karzai deserve each other, and between the two of them, they’ll FUBAR the sh@thole of Afghanistan. FF.

 

TTC

2:03 PM ET

February 5, 2010

No he didn't

McChrystal told LTG Kensinger what had happened in a P4 message. He informed his chain of command as was his duty to do.

 

GROUNDPOUNDER

2:29 PM ET

February 5, 2010

Bullspit!

Bullspit!

 

TTC

1:00 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Nice, Headpounder

Even if you don't believe people who have read the P4, try Google. It's your friend.

 

IF

11:52 PM ET

February 7, 2010

Pounder is correct re Gen McChrystal

Cut & paste from Wiki (admittedly not the best source, but it was quick):

"McChrystal was also criticized for his role in the aftermath of the 2004 death by friendly fire of Ranger and former professional football player Pat Tillman. Within a day of Tillman's death, McChrystal was notified that Tillman was a victim of fratricide. Shortly thereafter, McChrystal was put in charge of paperwork to award Tillman a posthumous Silver Star for valor. On April 28, 2004, six days after Tillman's death, McChrystal approved a final draft of the Silver Star recommendation and submitted it to the acting Secretary of the Army, even though the medal recommendation deliberately omitted any mention of friendly fire, included the phrase "in the line of devastating enemy fire," and was accompanied by fabricated witness statements."

Only after signing off on what he knew was a bogus Silver Star did McChrystal send the P4. Not a P4 retracting the bogus Silver Star, but one telling the White House speechwriters to not quote the medal citation.

Therefore, he lied to his chain of command by signing off on the Silver Star, and then tried to keep the lie from going public by sending his P4.

 

DHPELEGRO

1:46 PM ET

February 5, 2010

...

I think people are beginning to realise that this COIN stuff is all very well (and 100% necessary) but it gets stuck when it comes with developing and working with the government of the host nation. There has been some dealing with the issue in Development literature, though generally much of it assumes a "post-conflict" environment, and is therefore not always hugely helpful in the case of Afghanistan.

This is an area i have personally studied in some detail in the context of the South Vietnamese government, another multi-year effort to get a government to free itself from corruption and work properly. Seeing as the whole thing fell apart only 3 years after the US left, and corruption etc was never fully sorted (ie reduced to "acceptable" levels), the "lessons" I hoped for in terms of set structures that miraculously changed the whole dynamic did not scream out at me. It entailed reading a lot of very detailed and intelligent work on the political side of the Vietnam war, most of which is totally ignored and forgotten in the main literature.

Looking in depth at the 1969-72 period in my paper (as an aside I know Ricks has brough up Diem as a comparison/parallel, personally I think President Thieu is a much better fit) I did note that the realisation that the US was leaving did serve to push the GVN into the realisation that they needed to ensure that they could sustainably survive once the US had departed (hence land reform and up to 1971, political progress). At the same time however, the Nixon administration moved away from any focus on "nation-building", this meant that President Thieu moved towards self-reliance, but on his terms, hence corruption etc (including an election in which he was the only candidate) remained largely untackled. From this as regards Afghanistan (and yes I know they are not the same yada yada) I would argue that the US does need in clearest terms to say that its ain't gonna be there forever (something Karl Eikenberry in his recently released cables argued thay did not think), something Obama sort of did in his West-Point speech. Along side this it needs to keep a consistent pressure on Karzai and his government to keep doing what needs to be done (as opposed to giving up once Karzai complains about sovereignty etc, or assuming they won't try any funny business until it all blows up, like over the 2009 election).

Specific mechanisms for achieving specific goals I think remains an area in which there is plenty to be done, and something which is every bit as important as COIN principles.

 

DHPELEGRO

1:49 PM ET

February 5, 2010

Apologies for my multiple

Apologies for my multiple spelling errors, horrendous!

 

STARBUCK

2:56 PM ET

February 5, 2010

I think corruption will

I think corruption will always play a role in Afghan politics--the longest-standing ruler in recent times was ousted after...surprise, surprise, allegations of corruption.

 

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

6:25 PM ET

February 5, 2010

Are you starting to see the light, Tom?

Maybe your next book can be about Afghanistan, called "Fiasco II"

 

WALKING WOUNDED

9:36 PM ET

February 5, 2010

The Kolenda and JFQ links don't work

But the WSJ link was funny.

Any way we groundlings can read tCol. Kolenda's content, supposedly under discussion.

My assay on whether a writer on local Afpak affairs is engaging ground truth is to look for some reference to 'Pashtun.' Karzai is one of them. As was Omar, albeit with a 'cloak of the profit' rather than K's bloodline pedigree. Taliban was mostly them-uns. The Northern alliance warlords are not. Abdulah was not.

The ground war on both sides of the border is a Pashtun affair, at its bleeding heart. Making it about GWOT or 9/11 or US policy or opium indicates a sacrifice of situational awareness that our guys are going to bleed for.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

9:48 PM ET

February 5, 2010

prophet, not profit

Sure was nice, back in that other decade, when we could clean up our sloppy writing.

 

BILL KELLER

12:52 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Profit is the prophet..

And there is only one god, Annuity...WW, you use was appropriate and sublime.

 

JAPDS

3:49 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Kolenda's paper

Send me a gmail at japds1 and I'll send you a copy.

 

BILL KELLER

1:10 PM ET

February 6, 2010

your use...

got me also.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

3:08 PM ET

February 6, 2010

the cloak of the prophet...

does seem to get waived by a lot of amirs, princes and grand mullahs defending their calling to manage the public funds. But radical deobandi-wahabi recruiters seem to primarily ring the injustice bell, a behavior-mod hack at a level below the mohammedan programming.

The rising young Omar's Pashtun Taliban did seem to understand (or at least to benefit from expert ISI advice/funding re) how to buy alliances and step-aside deals with warlords and tribes. Pay now, collect in the hereafter is an interesting business model- and not uniquely moslem.

But it's infidel euro-US troops and civilians on Karzai's side of this civil war who are drawing big salaries, and will jet home to spend it, regardless of the unintended consequences of our actions and policies. Given the young age demographic in a population where only half made it to 45 years, it's all too easy to gin up an angry Pashtun tea-party response.

In our 'good war' of 1991, there were troops from half a dozen moslem countries. Likewise, the defeat of the Soviet backed faction in 1980 Afghan civil war had broad and tangible support from moslem nations and populations. Today, frontline gov'ts play us for short-term profit and position when we withdraw.

Only the internal (mostly non-Pashtun) moslem factions are supporting US policy in the two Af-Pak civil wars. Pakistan's support for Karzai's regime is weak and split at best; the huge Saudi funded madrassah infrastructure acts as a screen for a resistance and recruiting and network. We can't push enough heroin into Iran to justify this mess.

Wrapping our history of central asian blunders in the flag doesn't make it noble. American patriotism ought to be smart, defend our children's life and liberty, under OUR Constitution. Defense stocks doing relatively well in this recession is not a good argument for more years of debt-financed foreign occupation, 11 time-zones from the Mississippi.

 

SMCI60652

3:59 PM ET

February 6, 2010

absolutely agree with everything

except that you have to delineate between Deobandi, Wahhabi, and Pashtunwali.

Wahabbis don't believe in the power or symbolism of relics such as the "cloak of the Prophet."

Also, traditional Deobandis in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh have strong reservations about the Taliban's methods, or lack thereof, of interpreting and applying Sacred texts.

The overlap between different Sunni sects is considerably more fluid and lax on the ground then the regimented interpretations most analysts present.

Saudi Intelligence wasn't in bed with Mullah Omar because he was a Wahhabi. It was because his movement was fanatically anti-Shia and was a check on Iran and its proxies in the North.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

2:44 PM ET

February 8, 2010

'differentiate wahabs from deobandis'

OK, now that I've read Kolenda's piece, I'd like to respond to SMC's reasoned 'differentiate wahabs from deobandis' comment.

From my reading, it seems that ISI-Pak, wahabi money and deobandi fervor have conspired jointly to multiply AfPak madrassahs by factors of since 'brave muj' times, and staff same with radicals, products of their system of thought and activism. Whatever their doctrinal, cultural and object/shrine differences, radical wahabis seem to have found safe haven in deobandi territory. The two seem to share the tactical use of suicide behavior mod technology.

Kolenda deconstructs how differences between insurgents and tribe/community get run over by the power of the gun, as insurgents accrue influence and theneliminate rival power centers. I would suggest that in the crucible of armed insurrection, traditional deobandi or wahabi doctrinal-ideological differences fall away. Our muj enemies (and allies) end up fighting for their battle-buddies, just as our brotherhood of close combat learns to ignore racial and sexual politics, are married in the fight against a common enemy.

Kolenda makes a good argument for the hybrid COIN approach that Team Obama has bought into. I'm not convinced that we've answered 'Von Krieg's first question as the the nature of this phase of the AfPak war, and our part in it.

Post '65 VN, we felt we had to keep fighting, because national credibility and honor was the irreduceable interest worth defending. It becomes a death spiral, if we have to keep upping the bet to extend participation in a losing hand.

Where is the AfPak equivalent of the Pentagon Papers? Before congress borrows another trillion to wage vague wars, my government owes us voters, our troops, an honest accounting. My vote has to be informed to be democratic. How does Gary Power's cold war mission out of Pakistan lead step by step to nuclear proliferation between allies and enemies, and two civil wars whose outcomes we must guarantee?

 

WALKING WOUNDED

2:50 PM ET

February 8, 2010

10x Madrassah multiplication

Should have read:

'...conspired jointly to multiply AfPak madrassahs by factors of 10 since 'brave muj' times...'

I don't have the references in front of me, but in the 30 years since Bill Casey and the Saudis bankrolled the war against the Soviets, and indirectly the other war against India, madrassah multiplication was/is staggeringly geometric.

 

STEPHEN CASTNER

2:51 AM ET

February 7, 2010

Kolenda Afghanistan Piece Disappeared from JFQ Web Site

The link is present byt it leads nowhere,

Winning Afghanistan at the Community Level: A Rejoinder to Volney F. Warner and “C”
By Christopher D. Kolenda

The site is at: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/i56.htm

 

JAPDS

7:58 AM ET

February 7, 2010

Want the article?

Try getting it at the link below:

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0BwjzEebLv0CzOGY3YTc2MDAtMWJkZS00NjFjLWFkZjAtYmFmNmM4NDZmNGU1&hl=en

If that doesn't work, send me an email japds1 at gmail.com and I'll send it to you.

 

BABA TIM

8:39 AM ET

February 8, 2010

There is one country doing it right

The Japanese have been very active in Afghanistan since 2004 and are growing projects all over the country faster than any other aid agency in country. Their USAID equivalent is known as JICA and JICA operates in a manner which is 180 out from the anemic efforts of USAID or our State Department. In every ministry where the Japanese invest their yen they put an office manned by JICA FSO's who watch over every penny they donate. Not only does this allow them to ensure their funds are used as intended they are also leading their Afghan colleagues by example forcing them to increase their output, honesty, and dedication to their assigned task.

USAID and the Department of State remain behind the walls of the ultra posh US Embassy. They may venture into the Afghan ministries every now and then but when they do so they are in full Ivanhoe regalia with helmets, body armor, and a posse of armed gunmen from Blackwater watching over them as if they have stepped into the most dangerous unstable battlefield the world has ever seen. The Japanese FSO's by contrast usually wear a sport coat with tie or a nice dress (most of the JICA experts are female and darn attractive ones at that.) And of course the Japanese live in their own guesthouses on the economy not inside a gigantic walled puzzle palace full of luxury, rumor, booze, sex, and the kind of ridiculously poor threat intelligence which can only be generated by American RSO's.

We fund the Karzai government and could have our own FSO's seeded in every ministry like the Japanese do. But that would require that every department in both USAID and State actually assume a little risk and work in unheated offices with poor or no internet and eat Afghan food. That is a bridge too far for our supposedly professional foreign service folks so I guess we'll continue to lose billions of dollars we don't have.

The only way things will change in Kabul is to put the Marine Corps in charge. We are already asking them salvage the war after years of NATO bumbling and incompetence; might as well throw in salvaging the mess created by State and USAID too - they probably could handle it.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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