By
Kyle Flynn
Best
Defense Special Operations Correspondent
The
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a Military
Strategy Forum on Thursday, January 21 with General David Petraeus. The
formerly famous face of the Iraq surge led a discussion with the audience on a
broad range of CENTCOM-related issues including Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, and
Pakistan.
Here
is what was on his mind:
- To
be sure, the 18-month Afghan surge timeframe is flexible. Petraeus quickly
rejected the notion that U.S. forces would begin an unconditional
withdrawal in August 2011. Instead, U.S. forces hope to "start a
transition that is conditions-based of tasks from our forces to Afghan
forces, again, in areas where those forces and the situation allow
it."
- Recent
agreement between the Afghan government and International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) sets Afghan National Security Force (ANSF)
end-strength at 305,000 by October 2011. This is up from the current level
of 200,000. Petraeus also noted a major upswing in ANSF recruitment in the
month of December.
- General
McChrystal's tactical guidance on reducing civilian casualties is
supposedly working. While far too many Afghan civilians are still being
killed, most of last year's civilian casualties were caused by insurgents
rather than ISAF.
- All
surge forces except a division headquarters will be on the ground by the
end of August 2011.
- Like
in Iraq, there are two clocks to consider: one in Washington and one in
Kabul. In order to achieve success, we have to show progress to both the
American and Afghan people. Ironically, Petraeus stated that "it is
possible to demonstrate progress...but you're not going to turn
Afghanistan."
- Due
to Afghanistan's lack of infrastructure, an enormous building boom is
taking place throughout the country. Petraeus' agrees that this may be
"the largest building boom in Afghanistan since Alexander built
Kandahar."
- Logistical
miracle with supplies moving through Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan and even a route that starts in Iraq, goes up through Turkey
and Azerbaijan, then crosses two bodies of water to Kazakhstan, and
ultimately down through Uzbekistan into Afghanistan.
- Two
Afghans, the Minister of Defense Abdul Rahim Wardak and General Karimi
made it through U.S. Army Ranger School thirty years ago; meanwhile, there
was a twelve year time period when the U.S. did not allow Pakistani
officers to attend our military education and training schools.
- DOD
is disturbed by the recent discovery of references to biblical verses found on the weapon
sites of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Political
situation in Iraq recently exacerbated by the Iraqi Accountability and
Justice Committee's decision to publish a list of over 500 individuals with
alleged links to the former Ba'ath party. As of now, these individuals are
disqualified from participating as candidates in the upcoming
elections.
- Although
Yemen has been on CENTCOM's radar for years, the decision by al-Qaida's
senior leadership in Pakistan to rebrand its Yemen affiliate "al-Qaida in
the Arabian Peninsula" demanded a closer look from the U.S. intelligence
community. If you missed Petraeus' recent press conference on the future
U.S.-Yemen security arrangement, you can catch it here.
- Given
their limited resources, Pakistan's Army has conducted "impressive"
operations to confront the Taliban during the last year: in the Swat
Valley; the Malakand Division of the Northwest Frontier Province; Bajaur,
Mohmand and Khyber of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas; and most
recently South Waziristan. Petraeus notes a "true sea change in Pakistani
public opinion, the approach of the political leadership and even that of
the clerics, to recognize that certain extremist groups...were really
threatening the very existence of Pakistan."
- Contrary
to popular opinion, Petraeus believes that civil-military relations "are
very good right now, actually." He believes that Afghan debate sharpened
the military's focus.
- Building
trust and finding common ground with Pakistan remains a critical issue.
Given the rough shape of the ANSF, the continuous unraveling of Iraq, and the sanctuary afforded to
extremists in Pakistan, I left the discussion contemplating the amount of spin
that I had just digested. Even with Petraeus' qualified optimism of
Afghanistan, it is hard to imagine anything other than a population-centric
slog over the next few years. Whether it will be worth the costs in blood and
treasure remains unclear. Nevertheless, I am grateful that this man is charged
with the task of overseeing CENTCOMS twenty country area of responsibility.
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