Iraq, the Unraveling (XXXIX): Hey, security is deteriorating!

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Friday, January 15, 2010 - 4:30 PM Share

So says the Iraqi VP. And Anthony Shadid 'splains why in the New York Times. Anthony was always Mr. Mellow in Baghdad ("just take a taxi to Karbala, Tom") so when he gets worried, I start getting really worried.

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STEVE358

6:04 PM ET

January 15, 2010

Shadid

Ok, but add that to an orchestrated bombing set in Najaf, the strange Saudi circumstances swirling around Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and the Sunni voter registration issues, and there are plenty of ominous tea leaves swirling around the Sunni/Shia divide.

Ominous forces pulling it apart, and ominous forces pulling it together.---all from inside and outside. Long history of that.

Which way does the spinning top finally veer for the common folks of Iraq?

JWING

8:15 PM ET

January 15, 2010

Hashemi and Election Commission Banning

Hashemi is getting more vocal as the elections near. He was one of the few top iraqi officials to condemn Iran's actions with the Faquil oil field and he's been talking more and more since he's running with a new coalition this year for the 2010 vote. Talking about security deteriorating is a way for him to take a jab at Maliki who's said that he has secured the country. January has actually been much quiter than December since that's been the pattern since last year. One month high casualties, big bombings, next month deaths and attacks down.

The Shadid article isn't about security however. It's the latest episode in the soap opera that is Iraqi politics. The Accountability and Justice Commission that hasn't even had its members approved by parliament banned 500 candidates including Hashemi's running mate MP Mutlaq for alleged Baathist ties, and then the Election Commission went along with it. All those banned are suppose to go to a 7 judge panel to appeal their cases, but the judges just got named a few days ago and people have charged a couple of them with being Baathsits as well. Not only will their verdict be important, but also how long it takes them to come to their decision.

This is a classic example of the sectarian Shiite parties trying to take out their political opponents and play on fears about return of Baathists. The guy who runs the Accountability and Justice Commission was held by the Americans for one year for working with Iranian intelligence and their main Special Group the League of the Righteous. If these guys get banned it will probably temper Sunni enthusaism to vote in this year's election, as well as give another example of how Iraq is not a country quite ruled by law. Hopefully the judge's will throw most of the cases out and those candidates will be able to participate.