Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

Proven provider John McCreary, who is on a roll lately, said a couple of days ago that Iran's domestic political crisis may be approaching the tipping point. The key, he says, is to watch the behavior of the security forces in the near future:

The opposition in Iran is not capable of effecting the political changes it advocates. However, the government is unable to contain it, much less suppress it. A third cycle will begin in a few weeks. When security forces begin to join the protestors, then the Khamenei regime has begun the steep slide. As yet security forces respond to orders and have not crossed the line to join the protestors.

And I see where Trita and Rouzbeh Parsi are asking the same question: "Could the mullahs fall this time?"

Those who doubt this conclusion should visit Andrew Sullivan's blog and check out the many videos from Iran he has posted assiduously in recent days.

Btw, over the weekend the Times of London named Neda Soltan, the young female demonstrator shot to death in Tehran back in June, their person of the year. Good choice. NB to Lucites: Sure beats Ben Bernanke.

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JPWREL

4:10 PM ET

December 28, 2009

If these Iranian protestors

If these Iranian protestors eventually are successful in overcoming the current regime and its ruthless protectors which is a Iranian version of the Waffen SS (Republican Guard), Americans may be surprised to find it counts for little in those aspects of the regime we dislike the most.

 

BLUE13326

5:49 PM ET

December 28, 2009

In a sense it doesn't matter;

In a sense it doesn't matter; the country will be weakened to the point that it will be more amenable to various forms of influence, and a new regime will likely feel pressure to turn to a new patron, because it won't trust the current upholders of the old regime (Russia and China). Also, there could be a critical gap in command and control, weakening Iran's hold on its international terror network, and the chaos could even spark a humanitarian crisis, forcing Iran to turn to us. Either way, it would provide many many opportunities for us to further our interests even if the new brand of rulers is just as crazy as the old ones...I don't think the protestors will be successful, however...

 

JPWREL

11:46 PM ET

December 29, 2009

Correction: I just noticed I

Correction: I just noticed I said Republican Guard it should of course be Revolutionary Guard.

 

JPWREL

11:48 PM ET

December 29, 2009

Well, personally I am a

Well, personally I am a strong believer in the old adage of ‘be careful what you wish for I may come true’.

 

GRANT

9:09 PM ET

December 28, 2009

This assumes that Iranian

This assumes that Iranian security will join the protesters. I suppose it is possible for the police to do so but I find it at the height of improbabilities to think that the Basiji or Revolutionary Guard will do the same.
On another note, regardless of whether they're more or less likely to come to terms over the nuclear issue I still wish the protesters and the opposition well.

 

JIMMY W

10:17 PM ET

December 28, 2009

"Security Forces" Not Joining the Protesters

Tom, I agree with Grant, that the security forces will not join the protesters.

If the Army & the police were to join the opposition, it would be because the Basij machine-gunned a crowd of protesters, killing the kids of Army generals.

As yet, that has not happened, precisely because the IRGC is afraid of killing these kids of privilege.

The military will stay neutral in this fight, because it wants to preserve its stature as an apolitical force, and because the post-Revolutionary purges are still fresh on its minds.

Moreover, by staying ostensibly neutral, the military will gain status as the negotiator between the Iranian politburo and the protesters, brokering the settlement. Obviously, in such a settlement, the IRGC will be the sacrificial lamb, slaughtered at the altar to appease the vengeful protesters.

It is because of the prospect of that outcome that has the IRGC fighting to the bitter end. Another possibility would have the IRGC staging its own coup, kidnapping the politburo and sacrificing its own limb to preserve the livelihood of senior IRGC commanders.

I commented on these possibilities on my blog:
http://americanmohist.blogspot.com/2009/12/iranian-revolution-visualizing_09.html

 

BILL KELLER

2:14 PM ET

December 29, 2009

Is this more of a concern than...

this...

"In the year to October 20, there were 324 attacks worldwide with Somali pirates accounting for 174 -- up from 194 incidents in the same period of 2008. Of the 37 vessels seized, Somali pirates accounted for 35 and took 587 crew hostage. " Reuters 29 Dec 2009

It would appear that our maritime security are focussed upon bowl games, armada galleons acquisition and port calls than facing and quelling a piracy problem that would make Francis Drake red with envy.

Too many admirals..too few Naval Officers.

 

BILL KELLER

2:58 PM ET

December 29, 2009

Edit

"..our maritime security leaders are more focussed.."

Pirates took another ship today.
Think the snake flag on our bows does cause the fear among insurgents as it did for greasing the career of Gordon England.

 

GRANT

11:47 PM ET

December 29, 2009

I don't see what that has to

I don't see what that has to do with the issue at hand.

 

BILL KELLER

1:22 AM ET

December 30, 2009

The Best Defense....

or selected topic only?

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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