Iraq, the unraveling (XXXV): Pepe's prediction and more

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, December 21, 2009 - 4:33 PM Share

Many threads to ravel together:

Writing in Asia Times Online, Pepe Escobar gives the bottom line on recent auction action in the Iraqi oil industry:

What the early 2010s will definitely see is the rise of a relatively wealthy, Shi'ite-controlled Iraq friendly with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah.

(I loves me the interweb: On the other hand, a quick search shows that Pepe was the guy who wrote from Peshawar in, oh, August 2001 (!) that Osama bin Laden was washed up and the United States was paying too much attention to him and to al Qaeda, which he said was "in tatters.")

Also, the other day, Prime Minister Maliki alleged that dozens of members of Iraqi security forces were involved in the recent big round of bombings in Baghdad.

And Maliki was in Cairo today, which is interesting because the Egyptian government lately has become quite vocal about its worries about growing Iranian interference in Yemen and other parts of the Arab world. Let's see what comes out of this meeting.
Meanwhile, there are more complaints that Sunni Awakening groups are being screwed by the Baghdad government. From a report by the AP's Brian Murphy:

We have no [Awakening] checkpoints in the area anymore," said Sheik Shebib, who leads Awakening militias in the Arab Jabour area just south of Baghdad. "Now, al Qaeda is coming back and we are feeling more and more powerless."

And a Shiite cleric is warning of a creeping Baathist takeover.

(HTs to John McCreary's NightWatch and FP 's Blake Hounsell)

ESSAM AL-SUDANI/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:IRAQ THE UNRAVELING, AL QAEDA, IRAQ, OIL, TERRORISM

(7)

HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE

JPWREL

4:50 PM ET

December 21, 2009

I don't think so

Creeping Baathist takeover?? This seems hardly likely with a population about two-thirds Shiite, in control of the levers of government and the military and also possessing long memories.

CAPTAIN NOVAL

5:05 PM ET

December 21, 2009

Tom, you missed the real story of the day

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1237333/Serving-U-S-troops-face-prison-fall-pregnant-active.html

As I related a couple weeks ago with respect to the Navy's "Love Boat" problem, I guess the problem with sex amongst deployed female and male troops has also reached epidemic levels in the Army, adversely affecting readiness with all the pregnancies that result.

CAPTAIN NOVAL

5:05 PM ET

December 21, 2009

Tom, you missed the real story of the day

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1237333/Serving-U-S-troops-face-prison-fall-pregnant-active.html

JWING

5:37 PM ET

December 21, 2009

Iraq's oil

Iraq is not going to become a wealthy country anytime soon. The oil wealth is unlikely to trickle down. Oil is simply not a labor intensive industry which is what Iraq needs. Government ineptitude also means it's unlikely to effectively spend the increased profits it will earn either. Iraq's future is probably something akin to Nigeria, lots of oil, lots of poverty, lots of corruption, with a big terrorist problem on top.

ADMIRAL

7:19 PM ET

December 21, 2009

Oil field equipment

An oil field services company installs millions of dollars worth of custom equipment in and around an oil field in Iraq. Man walks up with AK-47, another with an RPG. In less than 10 minutes, millions of dollars of stuff is junk. Iraq will never produce over 3.5MBD.

WATSON

7:30 AM ET

December 22, 2009

In defense of Pepe Escobar

In defense of Pepe Escobar, whom I have found to be far ahead of our MSM on South Asia:

The piece cited by Mr. Ricks is dated August 30, 2001, by which time planning for the 9-11 op was well along in Hamburg, Germany under the leadership of Mohamed Atta. It was not inconsistent for Mr. Escobar to write then that the Afghan organization linked to bin Laden was “in tatters”.

In the same piece Escobar also wrote:

“Musharraf … has been frantically trying to convince the Americans any brutal action against Osama or his so-called ‘terrorist sanctuaries’ will fuel a radical Islamic backlash in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia.”
[snip]
“The Taliban are closely intertwined with Pakistani society. Their ultra-conservative - and for the West, demented form of Islam - is widely admired by a young generation of Pakistani madrassas (fundamentalist religious school) students. All it takes to understand the process is a visit to one of the thousands of madrassas in the tribal areas where Osama is the ‘World Hero of jihad.’”

Eight years on, Gen. McChrystal shares Escobar’s assessment of the “iconic” bin Laden, but our petro-security profiteers will not acknowledge the “backlash” phenomenon. They proclaim that the terrorists attack us because they “hate our freedom”.

If we really wanted peace in the region, our best first step would be decrease our obsession with the AQ bogeymen, and insist on a resolution of the status of Jerusalem.

ADMIRAL

6:57 PM ET

December 22, 2009

His Royal Majesty King David

Once King David appeared, peace instantly broke out. King David, the greatest and wisest man to ever live in the history of nations, according to his Majesty's hagiographer Saint Thomas from the District of Corruption. The Kings loyal subjects are holding festivals in his Majesty's honor all through the annointed lands of the blessed CENTCOM.

The King is now busy spreading peace and salvation in Afghanistan. His disciple Saint Stanley is working miracles, healing the sick and preaching the gospel of our beloved King David.

These recent reports of problems in the peaceful country of Iraq are works of fiction, because King David would never allow anything but peace and joy in his Kingdom. Word is spreading from Saint Thomas that the King performed many miracles, and was able to make all the mutiliated people whole. He even brought the dead back to life! Mothers all over the world are naming their children David in honor of his Royal Majesty, King David!

Hail King David! Peace maker and savior of man. At his name, every knee shall bow. We all look forward to the celebration of King David's birth on the 25th of this month.