Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

My CNAS colleague Iranga Kahangama went to see former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad speak at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. This is his report:

While the intended purpose was to discuss what is at stake for the U.S. in Afghanistan, I found myself more intrigued by the discussion of internal economic development in Afghanistan that actually dominated the night.

Ambassador Khalilzad raised two key economic points worth examining. First, with all the talk of investing in small Afghan businesses and building the economy through local entrepreneurs, we seem to have forgotten the behemoth investment firm in Afghanistan that is the United States Military. Khalilzad stressed the importance of using the military's purchasing power, and how procurement with an "Afghan first" mentality could help build up an Afghan economy. He mentioned having to drink bottled water from Dubai and eat German fruit while serving in Afghanistan, but these goods were available in Afghanistan too, just not institutionalized.  With over 30,000 more troops headed into the country, the military can create not only major demand, but a demand significantly financed through DOD's budget to stimulate the economy.

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Secondly, he stressed the need for wider diplomacy to facilitate Afghanistan into a better regional context. Specifically, the Ambassador stated multiple times that it was possible to eventually see Afghanistan serve as a land-bridge, connecting central Asia to south Asia. By developing trade routes, roads, and railroads in Afghanistan, it can serve as a means for trading, and to exchange south Asia's abundant raw materials with central Asian goods and services. By serving as a connecting hub for the region, Afghanistan would lessen the outside threats it faced from its neighbors, in addition to growing economically. 

However, while these serve as great take away points to consider, it is really the absence of action in these arenas that should be most concerning. The event was truly symbolic of how the mindset of policymakers should be working. The night started off with an analysis of our military and national security strategies, but quickly moved into a discussion about the internal political and economic development of Afghanistan. The time has come to entrust our military and its leaders, instead of endlessly debating timetables and withdrawal dates. We as a society, and as a polity, should be moving on to figure out the development and civilian capacity needs of Afghanistan after our military succeeds. It may not be 1992 anymore, but guess what? It's still the economy, stupid! 

MASSOUD HOSSAINI/AFP/Getty Images

 

VLADIMIR

5:16 PM ET

December 16, 2009

Interesting point. A paper

Interesting point. A paper written by Minkov and Smolynec for Defence Research & Development Canada argued that the main reason for the collapse of the post-Soviet government was the failure of the Soviets and the Kabul government to develop the local economy to the point that the government could independently finance its war effort. This left it entirely dependent on Soviet aid and when aid was withdrawn it helped precipitate the regime's collapse. The irony of course is that monopolizing the opium trade may the best way in the short run for Karzai Inc to win friends and influence people.

 

ZJIN

5:24 PM ET

December 16, 2009

Military demand? You got to

Military demand? You got to be kidding me. How are they going to sustain such foreign military dirven economy, if US is going to leave in a few years? And what could American army possibly buy from Afghanistan locally? Drugs?

Then there is the second point. Does anyone think that local people, or people in that area have not thought about that idea? But first you need to have a secure country first.

 

OMBRAGEUX

5:36 PM ET

December 16, 2009

Imperial Economics

Little known facts:
* Bosnia and Kosovo have been at peace for 15 and 10 years respectively.
* They have both received massive amounts of economic aid from the West.
* They sport GDPs/capita of about $8,000 and $3,000 respectively.
* Fix the economy of Afghanistan (GDP/capita c. $400) through COIN/NABU? Through soldiers with rifles and drones with their bombs? Good luck with that!
* The real question: Why haven't the Europeans grown some nuts and let the Americans go about their business of "saving the world" by themselves?

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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