Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

Retired Col. Jack J. McCuen, who has been there and done that, and is author of the classic text The Art of Counter-Revolutionary War, critiques Col. Gian Gentile's recent challenge in Parameters to the COIN crowd.

I find this pretty powerful. For example, Gentile disputes the COIN account of what happened in Malaya, and McCuen responds by recounting that Sir Robert Thompson talked to him about all that.

I am quoting this with Col. McCuen's permission, of course.

Gentile's article has the deep flaws of so many such articles written by the "Traditionalists." It criticizes counterinsurgency strategy/doctrine/population centric strategy without presenting any alternative strategy/doctrine. He justifies his thesis by arguing that General Abrams did not alter the strategy in Vietnam to a "one-war strategy" oriented on the population as opposed to the "search and destroy"/ "body count" attrition strategy of General Westmoreland.

I know that that is simply not true  because from the summer of 1968 to the summer of 1969 -- while I was "Advisor to the Director of Instruction" at the Vietnamese National Defense College in Saigon with the mission of teaching counterinsurgency to the South Vietnamese senior leadership -- I traveled throughout the country from the Delta to the Highlands observing the evolution of the war and its lessons. There was a marked change from a conventional, "search and destroy"/"attrition"/ "body count" strategy to one oriented on security, stability and organization of the population. It was working and was being welcomed by most of the population.

Unquestionably, this was being aided by the fact that during the 1968 TET Offensive the Viet Cong organization implanted within the population surfaced and was largely destroyed. North Vietnam's subsequent attempts to replace these mostly South Vietnamese cadres with Northerners failed. The Abrams/Colby "one war strategy" was certainly aided by the Viet Cong's demise, but the population could never have been secured without the strategy.  By 1972 about 90% of the South Vietnamese population had been returned to our control.  

By coincidence, another retired officer, who occupied a key position in Vietnam, and I discussed precisely this issue last night over the phone and we absolutely agreed on this point.  Sorley is right.  However, the real issue is not who was responsible for the change in strategy, but that there was a change in strategy to one focused on the population and its lessons -- which was my mission.  

Gentile is also wrong about Malaya and the evolution of strategy.  Again the issue is more who was responsible for the change -- Briggs or Templer? Actually, Sir Robert Thompson, who was Governor General of Malaya during this period and was perhaps just as responsible for the change in strategy as these two generals, wrote the "Forward" to my book.  As a result, after returning from Vietnam (1969-72) when I was using those Vietnam and Malaya lessons in managing the "Internal Defense and Development" Course at the Army War College, I got the opportunity to entertain Sir Robert in my Quarters for 3-4 hours with 3 or 4 other officers.  We had a fascinating discussion and he confirmed this change in Malaya strategy, its details and its success. Interestingly, following this visit to the Army War College, the following day he visited the President in Washington and, at the President's request, went to Vietnam to recommend what we should do. Subsequently, he wrote the book Gentile mentions in his article.

I could carry on a similar discussion for the Wars in Algeria, Greece and elsewhere.   

In addition, Gentile fails to recognize the key point in any counterinsurgency strategy. The purpose of such a strategy is not "to win hearts and minds." The purpose is not "nation building."  The purpose is to win the war against the strategy imposed upon us by our enemies who wage this type of war against us because experience has shown them that it is the only one by which they can defeat us -- what Mao described as a "protracted revolutionary war."  They wage this war within the population by using the population as a shield and weapon. Thus, the population becomes the "terrain." "Population terrain" becomes just as critical to insurgent warfare as physical terrain is to conventional warfare.  We must learn to clear, secure, stabilize and organize population terrain in insurgent or hybrid war as we must clear. secure, stabilize and organize physical terrain in conventional war.

How does Gian Gentile recommend that we do this and win these insurgent or hybrid wars, such as we are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan - - and are likely to be fighting in the future?

If Col. Gentile cares to respond, I will post his comment. This in no way is meant to denigrate his work. I think he plays an important and necessary role in the continuing debate.

Lee Carson/Flickr

 

SCHMEDLAP

11:59 AM ET

December 4, 2009

Shifting the burden?

"Gentile's article has the deep flaws of so many such articles written by the 'Traditionalists.' It criticizes counterinsurgency strategy/doctrine/population centric strategy without presenting any alternative strategy/doctrine."

Is the suggestion here that one cannot make a valid criticism without having a well-developed alternative at the ready?

 

CARL PRINE

1:24 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Gentile is a "Traditionalist?"

It's a bit interesting to see the wonderful COL Jack McCuen calling COL Gian Gentile a contemporary "Traditionalist."

If anything, COL McCuen's perspective on Malaya is dated because it fails to consider not just the counter-revolutionary's perspective but that of the commanders of the guerillas, who have written memoirs since he spoke several decades ago to Sir Robert Thompson.

If anyone is defaulting to a stale notion of what works and doesn't on a COIN battlefield, it's McCuen.

COL McCuen is being unfair to himself in this regard. He's smart, usually very nimble in his thinking and always compelling. But in this case -- and I venture this with all respect because he's a hero of mine and Gian is merely a friend -- I'll suggest that he heed the advice of Hubert Lyautey, the COIN hero of Madagascar and Morocco.

"But good people, my friends, you don't get it, and you never got it! There is no method, there is no cliche of Gallieni; there are ten, twenty -- or, if there is a method, its name is suppleness, elasticity, adaptability to place, time and circumstances."

This seems to me all that Gentile wants to see: Some pragmatic sense of linking strategy to operations and doctrine, not operations and doctrine becoming a default for strategy.

Articulating that sort of competent strategy requires that one understand one's enemies and, as an historian, listening to more than one side to get the full story.

This could work for journalists, too.

 

TYRTAIOS

6:52 PM ET

December 5, 2009

A fine response

Excellent comments and what I would expect from someone with your background - Bravo Zulu.

 

JASON SIGGER

12:03 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Interesting but not relevant

I understand McCuen's argument but it fails the relevancy test here. Let's assume that Abrams had the right strategy - it doesn't matter because it was too late and too little to influence American interests in the country, no? After six years of heavy fighting, you reach a point where you just begin to see progress, but the cost is too high and the public support is gone. That's always been the problem with COIN, and nit-picking about who did what to whom doesn't really matter if you DON'T UNDERSTAND STRATEGY.

And that's Gentile's point, not that conventional operations are better than COIN, but rather the myopic focus on COIN has caused the US Army to forget about the higher art of strategy, that non-military aspects, money, politics, and public support are in fact significant factors in the execution of military operations.

As for "how to fight insurgencies and hybrid warfare" in the future, the answer is - understand the strategic objectives BEFORE you get involved in the country. That is to say, if you can't count on a strong, legitimate central government, then DON'T go in and believe that COIN will solve it, because your fundamental problems will still be there after you declare "success."

We need to plan and fight military operations that are linked to achievable political objectives and that are sustainable and that can be resourced without crippling other sectors of the government. That's all Gentile was trying to say (IMHO). And he's right. The COINdanistas are confusing the discussion and ignoring the strategic aspects of this problem, but then again, the Army in general has ignored strategic warfare for the past 35 years. But it needs to wake up and pay attention. COIN is not strategy, it's an operational tactic.

Minor point, your html link to McCuen's book is off, take out the 81 at the end.

 

C. DIEHL

12:11 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Missing the bigger point...

The real misunderstanding/misreading of Gentile is that all of the COIN enthusiasts aren't thinking strategically or long-term enough. Consider what McCuen says:

"How does Gian Gentile recommend that we do this and win these insurgent or hybrid wars, such as we are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan - - AND ARE LIKELY TO BE FIGHTING IN THE FUTURE? " (emphasis added)

This is perhaps the worst assumption currently being made by COIN enthusiasts. Is is the right strategy to succeed in these current conflicts, YES it probably is. The question is, at what long-term cost? Does anyone REALLY think we will be fighting similar wars in the future? Given the fiscal problems at home, the lack of public will, the debatable strategic value/compelling interest in fighting future insurgencies, we seem to be jumping the gun by moving toward the wholesale reorganization of our armed forces around fighting small wars. I can't help but wonder what affect this potential future track will have on our status as the leading great world power. THAT is the issue many have with the COIN enthusiasts.

 

DHPELEGRO

11:53 AM ET

December 5, 2009

Gentile and strategy

One of the points I think Gentile confuses is quite where the military will come in in "choosing" how and where we fight our future wars. He is right to argue that COIN cannot become the be all and end all of the US armed forces, and that other capabilities must not be completely neglected. But as I see it it is at the political level that the nature of the campaigns the US military has to engage in is generally determined. These past eight years hopefully will lead the politicians of the next 20 years to think twice about commiting to such conflicts. It is also rightly noted that the Iraq and Afghanistan counter insurgency campaigns have been the product of error (at the political level) rather than deliberate choice. This should not however mean that the whole concept of preparedness to conduct a COIN campaign should be willfully neglected as after Vietnam, as if thanks to a new national security doctrine it would never have to do it again.

Overall the military should not make COIN its "new way of war" as Weigley would put it, but it has to be able to do it now and to retain the ability to do it in the future because it will not be the US military that decides what the next war will look like (RMA anyone?) but the US political leadership and the circumstances they face.

Also I would be interested to know why in his conclusion Gentile cites the "British Empire in the latter half of the nineteenth century" as a model for strategic thought to follow? Seeing as this period saw the scramble for Africa, with its shameful and largely unneccessary wars, and which culminated in the Boer War, a miserable and embarassing quagmire if ever there was one, I just want to know what Gentile was getting at.

 

JPWREL

2:01 PM ET

December 4, 2009

C. Diehl

Personally, I find your view of the danger of a wholesale doctrinal conversion of at least the ground forces of the U. S. military to some sort of small wars structure very compelling. The cornerstone of all efficient military and naval organizations is to maintain balance in their organizational, doctrinal and equipment structure.

Secondly, The Army may be preparing for a future of small irregular wars but it seems quite evident that as the American public has gained painful experience it is not the least bit ready for that future. It is quite likely that it will be very difficult for future Presidents to cavalierly commit our forces without deep and sustained pubic sentiment behind them.

 

BRETT

2:52 PM ET

December 4, 2009

How does Gian Gentile

How does Gian Gentile recommend that we do this and win these insurgent or hybrid wars, such as we are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan - - and are likely to be fighting in the future?

Gentile would probably argue that we need to do extra to avoid getting drawn into these types of wars. Meaning that when some jackass talks big about The Next Big Threat, Warning Signs In The Form of A Mushroom Cloud, and Promoting Democracy, he needs to be scrutinized with deep skepticism.

In any case, it's not Gentile's responsibility to present a better alternative, anymore than it's movie critics' responsibilities to write a better movie.

 

SCHMEDLAP

5:01 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Well said

"In any case, it's not Gentile's responsibility to present a better alternative, anymore than it's movie critics' responsibilities to write a better movie."

Great way to put it. I was trying to think of a similar analogy. I'm going to plagiarize that quote at some point in the near future.

 

HUCK T

3:46 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Classic McCuen?

I'm uneasy with the use of "classic" to describe anything having to do with counterinsurgency theory.

In my view, there have been nowhere near enough successful counterinsurgencies for us to speak of "classic" principals or "classic" texts on the subject.

This is not nitpicking: I believe we are still very much feeling our way through this; it is possible -perhaps likely - that the dynamic nature of insurgent warfare might prelude any talk of hard-and-fast guidelines for counterinsurgency.

On the other hand, I think it's fair to talk about Mao's classic texts on protracted war, although I'd like to hear a good argument against this notion.

 

SCHMEDLAP

7:42 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Re: Groundhog Day

So, you're saying we should invade Iraq?

 

CHARLIEFORD

10:02 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Why not?

Since it'll pay for itself and they'll welcome us as liberators, what's not to like?

And after that: Canada, Mexico, the Philippines, Cuba, Vietnam . . .

 

WALKING WOUNDED

10:15 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Everyday, I wake up and dang...

we've still got 100,000+ men occupying a country whose gov't steadily orbits closer to Iran.

Before waking I have a dream; powerful men are setting plans in motion to replicate our Iraq success, in... Dang!

 

PETE

9:56 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Doctrine and Tactics

The Army shouldn't have to make an artificial either/or decision about whether its doctrine should be for conventional warfare on the one hand or for low-intensity conflict, including counterinsurgency, on the other. The Army needs to be able to do both, and doctrine and schooling should reflect that requirement. U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command should ensure that at least 30 to 40 percent of the time spent on teaching tactics at combat arms basic and career courses is devoted to low-intensity war and COIN. It should be quality instruction, not years-old hand-me-down PowerPoint slides. That being said, the more traditional conventional warfare doctrine ("Fulda Gap") should continue to be taught as well.

 

WHSKYJACK

11:51 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Where are the other groups in this debate?

The Afghan strategies that General Petraeus was describing the other day on CNN struck a familiar cord with me. I know little to nothing about the military except what I read, but what he was describing was very familiar. He was advocating community organizing(if he realizes this or not I don't know) and that is something I am familiar with.
They have to deal with the same issue of trust and buy in, Separating out the real community leaders from the blowhards and complainers and finding issues that the community can come around to work together.
The military are in much the same role as our local police. They are trying to enforce order and doing so with force. It is very hard almost impossible for the police to be able to be community organizers and police at the same time. After all the belligerent drunk you took down and arrested last night is somebody's son, nephew, neighbor etc.and he may be a bastard but he is our bastard and you are not. For the military it is even worse.

There needs to be a neutral party involved to act as the go between. In our case it is usually a non profit CDC. But I haven't seen anything like that in coin so far the debate all seems to be with in the military?

Another thing I find interesting about this debate is how much it resembles the community policing debate, some Cops are gung ho for community policing and others just want to bust bad guys. In reality the police need both and both take a different skill and aptitude. I suspect the Army is much the same

Jack

 

WALKING WOUNDED

12:20 PM ET

December 5, 2009

A surge of community organizers?

Oh, the irony... Put Stan McChrystal in the subject line, and it degenerates into sarcasm. Which is odd, because the art of the locally possible is what the Special Forces are trained to do, on the 'community policing' level.

Jack's comment is as sharp as any I've read. I hope he comes back to Rick's place.

Here's a link to a 5-10 min Petraeus/CNN interview. Gen. P indeed looks into the camera and takes responsibility for the campaign plan's reasonable prospects for success. (But not the timeline, and not under oath.) It's worth listening to, if only for the moment when he cops to 'nation building', only to have a WH denial of community organizing under that moniker thrown back at him; a well set ambush. The man's cool under fire.

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/12/gen-petraeus-obamas-afghanistan-strategy-is-realistic-reassuring-and-logical.php

 

HAIRYSTEVE20

9:14 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Very worrying

It's very worrying that the 'really we were winning in Vietnam but we were stabbed in the back by a lack of political will' argument is still being trotted out.

COIN in Vietnam didn't work for the same reason it won't work in Afghanistan. The armed forces, in particular the front line forces, are being asked (told) to do the whole job, war fighting, COIN, reconstruction, etc. Where is the broader political strategy? The army will do it's best but it's being asked to do the impossible.

Where is the longer term strategy? Who is looking at the causes of Islamic fundamentalism? The wellspring is resentment at US support for Israeli repression and Arab despots. The start of a solution is forcing the Israelis to negotiate (from a position of strength with guarantees of fundamental Israeli integrity) and disengagement from the deeply unpleasant Taleban lite regimes in the gulf.

You can keep putting antiseptic cream on the running sores or start taking a course in antibiotics.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

7:51 PM ET

December 5, 2009

COIN and 1975: Political will, or another intel failure?

'H___ no, we won't go!" was better sloganeering than a crooked VP claiming a 'moral majority' for continued gravity bombing. The termination of both occupation and draft by Nixon's J. Walter Thompson staffed WH is a fair measure of where those realists pegged the political will of this country.

It was the Kent State era; scared Nat Guardsmen opened fire on unarmed protesters, catching students passing between classes. The Cambodia surge was a tactical failure, achieved no surprise. The peaceniks had better music too.

Earlier I posted the 11/2/09 Stratfor analysis of VN defeat vs our Af-Pak prospects. The thing that the multi-week Tet bloodletting had in common with the successful 1975 offensive was the strategic blindness and surprise. Getting caught flat-footed was an astounding intel failure for SVN, MACV, DIA and CIA. ARVN never learned how to compensate for multi-level enemy humint penetration, while the NVA did learn to adapt that 5th column advantage for a conventional victory.

SVN/ARVN had sufficient guns, tanks, planes, ordnance etc. to blunt the conventional attack, secure sea lanes to defend against severed supply roads. If, as Tyrtaios informs me, the war was conventional, against organized NVA regiments from 1969 on, it seems hard for Col. Gentile to argue that ARVN lost because their force was trained and positioned for COIN, not combined arms.

Ho's regime was brutally stalinist in 1954, torturing and starving would-be refugees. But the US intel failure was evident when the Pentagon Papers history of how we got chest deep had to be classified and hidden, to shore up 'political will.' The US military, WH and security state willfully blinded the voters and their representatives. We cast votes on the basis of who salutes which myth? Now that's strategic blindness!

Where is todays weapons-grade executive history of our post-partition involvement in Central Asia's wars and coups? Why should voters trust a military or WH admin that doesn't trust a US congressman with the classified dope on what was going on 20 or 50 years ago?

 

JPWREL

10:01 AM ET

December 6, 2009

Walking Wounded

Walking Wounded you are always provocative. :-)

"SVN/ARVN had sufficient guns, tanks, planes, ordnance etc. to blunt the conventional attack, secure sea lanes to defend against severed supply roads."

The above is quite true. What the South Vietnamese Army did not have was an incorruptible leadership and ruthless discipline. Most importantly they were never imbued with a sense of self-sacrifice and will to victory. All these unfortunate characteristics seemed to be shared by our Iraqi and Afghan army clients.

It is always amusing listening to Washington types talk about training Iraqi or Afghan forces to eventually provide for their own security. Certainly, we can train them to properly fire and maintain an M-4. We can also instruct them in simple small unit tactics but how do we train them to shed their blood with the same sense of self-sacrifice as their Taliban adversaries? How do we instruct them in acquiring the will to prevail? Where does that come from - a field manual?

 

WALKING WOUNDED

10:56 AM ET

December 6, 2009

will to conceal

Some who read this will shake their heads at you and I, believing that SVN was abandoned and left unarmed, betrayed by Cronkite and Ted Kennedy. The 'surprise attack' meme is equally burned in, in spite of the earlier NVA armored assault across the DMZ.

Has DoD has declassified the 45 year old MACV and related intel files, for peer reviewed research? Until we can examine our own brave failings on the record, we should talk of client corruption and conscript cowardice with caution. Many an edifice has been defaced, because the story carved in stone and blood didn't suit the next 'winner.'

 

JSINAIKO

1:19 PM ET

December 6, 2009

ARVN had all the ordinance it

ARVN had all the ordinance it needed. And some SVN people fought very well. The SVN Marines were the ones who stopped the NVA armor in 1972, buying three more years for the SVN regime.

My impression is that ARVN wasn't a complete disaster but was uneven. WIth decvent leadership they did OK. Not so different than the ROKs early in the Korean conflict. Of course they could never match the motivation and will to win of the NVA. Plus the NVA had Nguyen Giap, arguably the best commander of the 2nd half of the 20th century. He beat two major western powers and ARVN over a 25 year period.

The idea that Walter Cronkite and Ted Kennedy and Jane Fonda (can't forget her) beat the ARVN and it's air wing the US Navy is ludicrous. AFAIK the funding cutoff that congress imposed on the Ford administration didn't rob ARVN of the three Bs but it did curtail air support, not that the NVA had any air.

Seems to me that a tired, played out, utterly corrupt SVN government just didn't have the will to continue - especially since their American sponsors were obviously in the process of disengaging. The NVA ran two conventional invasions of SVN after most US forces pulled out. The first in 1972 came close but was defeated by the SVN Marines with help from US air, and the second in the Spring of 1975 succeeded. Nothing particularly nefarious about it - everyone knew it was eventually going to happen.

The best account I've read of the final collapse of SVN is Decent Interval by Frank Snepp. It comes from a spook POV, but is fairly comprehensive and full 0f great anecdotes and personality profiles.

 

TYRTAIOS

12:21 AM ET

December 7, 2009

It was my observation that

It was my observation that replacement parts and ordnance was rather stingy during most of, and especially the latter part of Vietnamization, though I think, in retrospect, the cause was bankrupt from the start...thanks for mentioning the Vietnamese Marine Corps (Thuy Qan Luc Chien). You won't read about it, but while their Commandant was getting families, and as much of his Corps as he could to safety, the 4th Battaion was dug-in and fighting to the end.

 

ZATHRAS

12:47 AM ET

December 7, 2009

If we're going to use Vietnam analogies...

....we ought to be clear about what the argument that American "abandoned" South Vietnam was all about originally.

It wasn't about Tet. It wasn't about the Cambodian incursion in 1970, or even the steady reduction in American ground troops in Vietnam during Richard Nixon's first term. It certainly wasn't about the relative merits of counterinsurgency, maneuver, and attrition warfare. It was not, fundamentally, about will.

It was about the Congressionally-imposed restrictions on American air operations and logistical support of the South Vietnamese and Cambodian governments during the 1973-75 period. After years in which great sacrifices had been made in Indochina, Congress refused to authorize much more modest efforts to penalize North Vietnamese violations of the peace treaty that had ostensibly ended the war in 1973, and eventually chose to let Saigon face conventional invasion from the North alone, leading to the Communist victory in the spring of 1975.

Congress acted as it did while the Executive Branch was in a state of perpetual crisis, crippled by the Watergate scandal and Nixon's eventual resignation. At the same time, the geopolitical rationales for the American commitment in Vietnam had by that time become much less persuasive, largely because of the Nixon administration's own success in improving relations with the Soviet Union and initiating them with Communist China. It was also true that some people in the then-new Ford administration were determined not to risk Ford's already fragile political position by taking risks on behalf of an unpopular war by then closely identified with Ford's disgraced predecessor.

Assume, for argument's sake, that the abandonment argument is valid (it might not be; South Vietnam might have collapsed anyway, or collapsed a year or so later). Does it really tell us anything of use in our current situation with respect to Afghanistan?

I can't see that it does. Too many of the circumstances are not only different, but radically different. One could easily make a strong case that withdrawing American support from the South Vietnamese and Cambodian governments was a grievous error without contradicting a case that expanding the American commitment in Afghanistan now is also an error. Or the other way around.

Now, the more often heard argument that the American war effort in Vietnam was undermined at home -- articulated by, among others, Sylvester Stallone in the Rambo movies -- is relevant to Afghanistan, simply because it is consistent with how a large part of the Republican Party base views both the American military and American political liberals such as President Obama. The military, allowed to do its job, is invincible practically by definition, meaning that any difficulties encountered in a place like Afghanistan must be the fault of someone else.

That this view is neither well supported generally or supported at all by the full record of the Vietnam conflict did not matter to the many elected Republican officials who spent months demanding that Obama give Gen. McChrystal everything he asked for (whether or not they were familiar with what he did ask for), or to the conservative commentators who reacted to the President's speech last week with complaints about its lack of inspiring rhetoric and calls for victory. It will not matter to either group a year from now, either, which is just one of many factors complicating Obama's very difficult position.

 

JSINAIKO

1:19 AM ET

December 7, 2009

Whew!

You covered a lot of ground very succinctly. I agree with your strategic analysis although I do believe that the extremely heavy opposition to the war - even though the anti-war movement had been neutralized by the Nixon administration's often illegal measures and the antics of the New Left (Billy Ayers Obama's erstwhile "terrorist pal" was a leading figure; Ayres has condemned Obama for his Afghanistan move) - had a real impact on congress and the Ford administration's attempts to get the cutoff reversed. War-weary doesn't even begin to describe the mood of the public by the time the Paris accords were signed in 1973. Congress was doing its job; we were in a recession, Watergate had torn the fabric of the country apart almost as much as Vietnam, and nobody was in a mood to continue to support and bankroll Thieu, Ky, and their cronies. It was pretty clear to the general public, and the opinion of every - and I know many - Nam vet I ever discussed it with was that in most cases ARVN wasn't very good. SVN's days were numbered. The administration admitted it in private; that's what Kissinger's "decent interval" was all about.

These issues in particular are relevant to what is presently happening because the public is already war weary, although not to the extent it was in 1973; the draft has been gone for along time, and both Iraq and Afghanistan, bitter and violent as they have been are not of the size or intensity of Vietnam, where the US lost hundreds of guys KIA every week, and thousands wounded for years at a time.

If we end up dragging our arses in a stalemate or in a prolonged and uncertain COIN operation in Afghanistan, on top of the eight or nine years in Iraq, in a couple of years we will have to redefine the term "war weary."

Secondly, unless there are scenes of US personnel loading into choppers from the roof of the US embassy in Kabul as the Taliban closes in I don't think the "stab-in-the-back" myth as practiced by Vietnam revanchists, the hard right, Germany in the 30s, will work with Afghanistan. The public is already skeptical enough; I don't think the same level of commitment is there re. Afghanistan.

 

TYRTAIOS

11:43 AM ET

December 7, 2009

Saigon - Kabul

Well Zathras, let us also remember that regardless of my views as a younger man back then, Ho did have a legitimate claim to all of Vietnam, whereas the Taliban cannot make that claim with regard to Afghanistan - though they can state we are propping-up and supporting an illegitimate and corrupt regime under Karzai in Kabul - an interesting parallel to Vietnam.

Unless we change that perception in America, we may see support eroding even further, and may well eventually leave Afghanistan, having made great progress, but only to see it collapse later,as occurred with the Saigon government in S. Vietnam.

Interestingly, a question to ask for the future would be not whether COIN works, but whether in the end, it’s application is affordable?

 

JSINAIKO

12:04 PM ET

December 7, 2009

430,000?

Good point - COIN's affordability.

If it takes an army almost the size of our Vietnam army, or Desert Storm many years to make it work in an obscure country of 28 million, I would argue that it isn't affordable. And not cost-effective or the best solution.

You are correct about the differences between the Taliban and North Vietnam. One of the ironies of Vietnam is that the nationalist VC infrastructure, already badly damaged by phoenix and other covert programs was bypassed by the NVA and the North Vietnamese authorities in the Spring of 1975. Vietnam ended up, at least for the first few years as a pretty nasty Stalinist operation. If we hadn't destroyed the VC - which had zero effect on the survival of South Vietnam as an independent entity, the people of South Vietnam might have ended up with a better, less oppressive regime.

Which perhaps should inform our POV on the Taliban. Given that we have been told that there are various strains of the Taliban, maybe we ought to be cultivating the less onerous groupings to "flip" in order to set up a situation where everyone is represented in the yet-to-be-created nascent national government of Afghan reconciliation (or whatever you want to call it). Hell, maybe it's already going on. I would hope so.

What would have happened if, going back to say, 1962, US forces, especially the special forces and spooks had worked to convince the VC that they might be better off doing business with the US, if not the colonial running dog South Vietnamese than with their fellow nationalist but Stalinist brethren in the North? Sounds far-fetched, but who knows? Of course it was impossible to do that back in the days when the US was convinced that communism was "monolithic." But we can't make that huge mistake again either - if the Taliban are also not monolithic, we really should be talking to the guys we think might be willing to work with us if we can be seen as honest brokers and not just the sponsors of a corrupt, ineffective central government.

Might be a hellovalot cheaper in both lives and treasure than acting as if the Taliban are the same as the [non-existent] international communist conspiracy that must be totally and permanently destroyed by the military.

I would venture that this would require more spook and special ops presence and fewer conventional force units than a textbook COIN campaign. Cheaper, more effective, less destructive, and more realistic.

Or, to paraphrase Rummy, we have to go with the Afghanistan we have, not the one we want.

 

ZATHRAS

3:20 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Ho Chi Minh had the same

Ho Chi Minh had the same claim on Vietnam that Lenin did on Russia and Mao did on China, the right to rule the country by virtue of having killed or imprisoned all one's enemies. Had the Taliban been a little stronger in the 1990s they might have made the same claim to Afghanistan.

Hamid Karzai cannot make that claim, making the legitimacy of his government something it will have to earn in some other way. Whether enough of his government's officials have the understanding and ability to recognize this and act on it is central to our chances for some kind of decent outcome in Afghanistan.

 

JSINAIKO

6:20 PM ET

December 7, 2009

No The Case

Ho had a much stronger case for leadership in Vietnam in 1945.

- He was the leading Vietnamese nationalist who didn't go with Vichy and the Japanese.
- He worked with the OSS to put together a constitution that was more or less identical to the US constitution.
- If Truman had known what to do he would have done what FDR planned to do: not let the French back in and give it to Ho and the nationalists. By letting the French back in he screwed the pooch pretty badly.
- Ho had the overwhelming support of the country, except for the Catholics, who were tied at the hip to the French, and therefore the Japanese and were considered traitors.

Ho was a nationalist first and a socialist second. Not the same a Lenin and Mao.

 

JSINAIKO

6:39 PM ET

December 7, 2009

JFK, LBJ, SF

Academic question:

JFK survives Dallas, and commits ONLY advisors for ARVN and SF to Vietnam. SF runs an early version of the present COIN operation. Diem survives or doesn't but SVN government remains a kleptocracy and ARVN remains pretty ineffective.

What's the outcome and when?

 

ZATHRAS

10:44 AM ET

December 8, 2009

The South falls in 1967. A

The South falls in 1967. A Communist insurgency develops in Thailand by 1969, and similar movements in other Southeast Asian countries develop soon after that.

Incidentally, the "nationalist first, socialist second" about the North Vietnamese is one of the flimsiest arguments to come out of the whole Vietnam period. Nearly every tyrant of the 20th century was a nationalist to one degree or another; there wasn't a more fervent nationalist anywhere than Mao Zedong. Mao was also a perfectly sincere Communist. It was Communist ideology that served as the foundation for his power, as it did for Ho Chi Minh's, and as the template for revolutionizing his society, which is also something Ho attempted in Vietnam.

There grew up in the American anti-war movement a kind of fairy tale, in which innocent North Vietnamese nationalists, nascent democrats even, were corrupted by being denied dominion over all of Vietnam in 1945, and thereafter became Stalinists committed to totalitarian rule and the slaughter of their enemies. The fact is that Communism, a miserable failure as an economic system, provided excellent guidance for guerrilla leaders aspiring to replace the declining Western empires -- guidance for how to take power, and for how to keep it in perpetuity, the goal that motivated them to become guerilla leaders in the first place.

The idea that revolutionary leaders like Ho would ever fight a war to install a system of government requiring them to accept the loss of power if they lost an election might at one time have been comforting to people in the American anti-war movement, badly alienated from their own government's policy of the moment. It was never more realistic in Vietnam than it was in any of the other Communist states.

 

HUCK T

1:01 AM ET

December 9, 2009

Nicaragua

According to Z's logic, does it then follow that Nicaragua under the Sandinistas was not a Communist state?

 

RISEN

11:02 PM ET

December 4, 2009

Great comments all around.

Great comments all around. It should also be noted that many critics of COIN aren't as concerned with the strategy itself, but the amount of enthusiasm with the endeavors that would go along with any COIN operation, which is, in essence, at least some for of nation-building by nature.

The mere fact that at every instance of a COIN critique, we see many of its supporters immediately hyperventilating is telling of the problem. The biggest concern, from my view, is the manner in which the strategy has become a quasi-ideology being pushed by ideologues (not all COIN supporters would qualify of course).

 

ADMIRAL

3:51 AM ET

December 6, 2009

Blackwater /JSOC

With the Eric Prince story coming into focus, light is being shed on the secret war in Pakistan and Blackwater/JSOC death squad activities around the region. Public COIN debates amoungst the self appointed serious, never seem to discuss the occult side of COIN, almost like it does not exist.

Our goal as the occupier of Afghanistan is to break the people and force them to obey us and the puppets we install in their land. Death squads, rendition, torture, etc..., are common tools used to enforce our will upon the occupied. This is common in the history of COIN. Those who say, "It's different this time", are fools or liars.

 

SCHMEDLAP

6:52 AM ET

December 6, 2009

Seriously?

As someone who has both served in a JSOTF and interacted extensively with Blackwater contractors, I would just like to point out that I laughed a protein shake through my nose when I saw Blackwater and JSOC used in the same sentence. Okay, now am I fully awake and ready to hit the gym. Thank you, Admiral.

 

ADMIRAL

8:46 PM ET

December 6, 2009

Blackwater and JSOC used in the same sentence.

Here is one report discussing JSOC and Blackwater together in several sentences. Eventually this will become impossible to cover up. Full blown info wars against Prince are underway. JSOC needs Blackwater death squads for legal cover. Assasination and terror are part and parcel to appying counter-insurgency. It is all part of the process to break the will of those resisting the occupation of their own country. We did this stuff for decades in Latin America. The SOA used it extensively when it conducted Operation Condor and the later wars in Central America. Of course The Nation could have made all this up. Looks like some pretty good reporting to me.

"The covert JSOC program with Blackwater in Pakistan dates back to at least 2007, according to the military intelligence source. The current head of JSOC is Vice Adm. William McRaven, who took over the post from Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who headed JSOC from 2003 to 2008 before being named the top US commander in Afghanistan. Blackwater's presence in Pakistan is "not really visible, and that's why nobody has cracked down on it," said the source. Blackwater's operations in Pakistan, he said, are not done through State Department contracts or publicly identified Defense contracts. "It's Blackwater via JSOC, and it's a classified no-bid [contract] approved on a rolling basis." The main JSOC/Blackwater facility in Karachi, according to the source, is nondescript: three trailers with various generators, satellite phones and computer systems are used as a makeshift operations center. "It's a very rudimentary operation," says the source. "I would compare it to [CIA] outposts in Kurdistan or any of the Special Forces outposts. It's very bare bones, and that's the point."

Blackwater's work for JSOC in Karachi is coordinated out of a Task Force based at Bagram Air Base in neighboring Afghanistan, according to the military intelligence source. While JSOC technically runs the operations in Karachi, he said, it is largely staffed by former US special operations soldiers working for a division of Blackwater, once known as Blackwater SELECT, and intelligence analysts working for a Blackwater affiliate, Total Intelligence Solutions (TIS), which is owned by Erik Prince. The military source said that the name Blackwater SELECT may have been changed recently. Total Intelligence, which is run out of an office on the ninth floor of a building in the Ballston area of Arlington, Virginia, is staffed by former analysts and operatives from the CIA, DIA, FBI and other agencies. It is modeled after the CIA's counterterrorism center. In Karachi, TIS runs a "media-scouring/open-source network," according to the source. Until recently, Total Intelligence was run by two former top CIA officials, Cofer Black and Robert Richer, both of whom have left the company. In Pakistan, Blackwater is not using either its original name or its new moniker, Xe Services, according to the former Blackwater executive. "They are running most of their work through TIS because the other two [names] have such a stain on them," he said. Corallo, the Blackwater spokesperson, denied that TIS or any other division or affiliate of Blackwater has any personnel in Pakistan.

The US military intelligence source said that Blackwater's classified contracts keep getting renewed at the request of JSOC. Blackwater, he said, is already so deeply entrenched that it has become a staple of the US military operations in Pakistan. According to the former Blackwater executive, "The politics that go with the brand of BW is somewhat set aside because what you're doing is really one military guy to another." Blackwater's first known contract with the CIA for operations in Afghanistan was awarded in 2002 and was for work along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091207/scahill

 

SCHMEDLAP

12:30 AM ET

December 7, 2009

Two words...

Admiral,
I've got two words for you in regard to The Nation. ZERO CREDIBILITY.
Enjoy.

 

ADMIRAL

3:33 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Who has credibility?

Does the story need to appear in the propaganda organs before it has cred? Stories like this don't make it in the WP and NYT, etc..., until they can't be denied any longer. In your case, you have chosen to "kill" the messenger. Take a look how long our involvement with SOA trained Salvadorian death squads were denied by the captured media. Again, assasination, torture, secret prisons, and terror operations are part and parcel to counter-insurgency warfare. If you don't get this, you don't get COIN.

 

SCHMEDLAP

10:52 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Did you even click on the link?

In answer to your question: No, but it should have its facts straight. Kill the messenger? Perhaps you might want to click on the link for a rejection of the story by a guy in central Asia who actually knows what he's talking about. I'm just saying.

And thanks for the tip regarding COIN. I'm sure you've got more time deployed to OIF/OEF than I do and a much better track record of performance.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

4:11 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Credibility

It was Ollie North, testifying about freelance ops in Central America and arms sales to the Ayatollah, who related the CIA Director's dream of "Freedom Inc.'. If you take a USMC LtC under oath at face value, the idea was a self-funding covert ops organization, a League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, directed by some sort of 'Committee for the Present Emergency', insulated from court constraints and congressional budget strings.

Anyone who thinks Bill Casey's dream died with him is not paying attention, or lacks imagination. Billionaire-entrepeneur Prince sounds like a privileged son who pays attention, and who has developed a strategic vision. I prefer a Col. Gentile, who maybe yearns for a good clean war, where his RCT can find em, fix em, and call in artillery.

When things get denied by people who are trained in deception techniques, file with an asterix. Same when those denials are repeated by folks who secretly wish that super-operators were conducting soldier of fortune fantasies. Same for conspiracy hounds. Interesting, if true.

 

6OGUREZ

1:00 AM ET

December 7, 2009

jeremy scahill...

"zero credibility" is a compliment... but I digress.

 

SCHMEDLAP

1:43 AM ET

December 7, 2009

You're right...

I just put a face with the name. I recall seeing Scahill on al-Jazeera's Fault Lines program last month. Amazing that they put that guy on the same panel with Jack Keane. It was like arranging to put a 9/11 truther on the same panel as Lee Hamilton.

 

STEVE358

3:50 PM ET

December 6, 2009

Certainly a lot said above,

Certainly a lot said above, but a few points I'm not clear on.

In my view, the Surge in Iraq worked, but only for its main and focused objectives: (1.) to completely engage the Iraqis (not the Americans or "Coalition")in carving their own future (better or worse); and (2.) to provide a fairly respectable exit strategy for the US and its military partners.

The message that I got "loud and clear," as one of those actual civilian senior reconstruction experts recruited to bring an end to US Iraq involvement was delivered prior to my departure by one of Ambassador Crocker's senior reconstruction advisers, Ambassador Henry Clarke, in December 2007: 'Everything is screwed up over there, so don't take anything for granted---change things to make it work! Get the Iraqis engaged, and get us out of the middle.'

His observation of what is now recognized as the $53 billion US civilian reconstruction fiasco was on point. US military and civilian agencies running amok, often defeating each other in their endless quest for "turf" and "low hanging fruit," which for six years of effort, had, to that date, amounted to nothing.

Brave military commanders like then-MG Hertling, a veteran of many Iraq deployments, were, no doubt, given the same assignment. While he did plenty of fighting in 2008, his goal was the same---consistently pressing his brigade and battalion commanders to (1.) upset the opposition; and (2.)push the Iraqis forward to solve their own problems.

Nothing, in my opinion, demonstrates the shear capability of a well-trained military leader as the standoff between the KRG and Iraq's military at Khanaqin in September 2008, where MG Hertling bravely waded into the middle of the near-explosive confrontation, to diffuse it by telling both that if they came to blows, the US would not engage---they would have to take the confrontation all the way, but on their own. This singular act of diplomatic heroism, by an otherwise aggressive Armored Division Commander, was, in my opinion, the final underpinning (the last major internal confrontation) that completed the mission of the Surge: pushing the Iraqis to tackle their own problem, and extricating the US military.

General McCrystal's SF operations were,in fact a mainstay of disrupting bad guys in Iraq, but just one piece of a combined puzzle. As recent coverage of the White House deliberations reveal, until recently, he was directed in Afghanistan to kill bad guys (the Taliban), and that's what he was dutifully doing. Not COIN, and not Iraq Surge.

It is against the successful "Way Forward" from Iraq backdrop that I view both Gentile's comments and the current mission.

Gentile reminds us that COIN, and its related nation-building and community engagement components, can often lead wise men down a wrong path, but that all paths,including diplomacy and extrication, are other paths to be heavily considered in the right time and place.

This is especially true in the complex multi-ethnic, multi-national landscape of Afghanistan where big powers have been jockeying through this country for eons: India, Greece, Persia, Britain, etc...

My concern with the Obama Administration's currently announced focus, and the hundreds of confused and competing agencies, NGOs, and mixed military endeavors, is that the real lessons of the Iraqi Surge have not been learned or embraced. Strategies must be realistic to be achieved.

My hope is that, by next year, the Obama Administration will fully understand the real lessons of Iraq, and establish a meaningful and sustainable strategy for Afghanistan grounded in pushing Afghans to solve their own problems, halting the corruption-inducing flows of billions of scattered-US and international aid programs, and extricating our military from the endeavor.

Like Iraq, it might take one or two years, and the results may be, at times, disconcerting, but the limits of Empire ultimately catch-up in these circumstances.

It is not that we cannot "win" in Afghanistan or Iraq; it is that our definition of winning must be consistent with the realities of that country, and our resources and resolve.

On the civilian side, I have my fingers crossed for the day I read in the Washington Post the same message that Ambassador Crocker sent in April 2007: "Send some real experienced civilians to help."

What is that 12-step idea? You have to hit bottom before you can start on the next path?

Their path is just beginning, grasshopper.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

4:53 PM ET

December 7, 2009

"Who was that masked man?

We never got a chance to thank him." ;) Great comment and real-life contribution, Steve.

I was with you all the way to the 12-step aside. Hitting bottom is just mother earth's way of telling me about boundaries and consequences. Reality, like gravity, sucks most when we don't pay attention.

The path begins to turn into a recovery program when 'we admitted we can't control ______, and that our lives had become unmanagable.' Step 2 is about believing in a power beyond our now-humble selves, and leaning that way for a return to sanity. But we have to read it in the original, and it's a leadership by example sort of thing.

Lots of folks in the program haven't got it yet either, which is what makes hearing their experiences so valuable to me. Do y'all have Nation Builders Anonymous meetings? Do you know Jack?

 

RUBBER DUCKY

9:56 AM ET

December 7, 2009

Gee this is tough

Might I make the gentle suggestion that perhaps the US Army might try to organize, train, and equip itself so that it could confidently walk and chew gum at the same time? How is this either/or, COIN or main force? The correct answer to which way the Army should go is 'yes.'

If it's leaders can't figure that out, get some new leaders. And if middle management can't understand that the argument at hand is about false choices, well then maybe the Army isn't doing a very good job of training its people at strategy or much else either.

How can anyone see this discussion and the past eight years as anything but an indictment of the US Army's leadership, training, and abilities? It's just like Vietnam: 'Give us pretty much everything we want and by God we'll lose anyway.'

 

JSINAIKO

11:14 AM ET

December 7, 2009

And even if they can do the

And even if they can do the Fulda Gap AND Afghanistan AND be super-spooks it might be nice if guys like McChrystal could do more than give us the "can-do" scenario and take the problems that a lack of civil society and a central government that isn't inclined to help create one create.

I have given up on Tom Friedman - he is now in that place where pundits believe their own BS - but he was correct yesterday when he said that no matter what the generals say, this is a strategically muddled plan, unless they have stuff going that they haven't talked about (and by this I don't mean covert stuff). How can you create a decent army when you don't have a legit government for it to work for? And how can you build up an effective central government in 5 years in the wake of literally thousands of years of rejection of a central government. At least SVN has the old colonial administration to build from, even if everyone hated it.

Meanwhile, Politico today is asking if the gernerals aren't really running the show, as opposed to the president, and Pter Feaver in these pages is asking if the president isn't "micromanaging" the generals. So people with agendas seem to be playing it both ways. Sheesh.

But my point is, this is far from just a military affair, and McChrystal knows this. So why is it constantly being couched in strictly military terms? Does McChrystal have an opinion about whether the Karzai government is an outfit that is up to the changes ahead? Does he think this is a relevant factor?

So yeah, it would be nice if the army could (in LBJ's actual immortal words) fart and chew gum at the same time, but it would also be nice if these COIN guys would be frank about what they think they can do with the partner government. Isn't that the most important factor in this entire COIN thing?

 

DHPELEGRO

12:58 PM ET

December 7, 2009

An obvious answer...

'How can you create a decent army when you don't have a legit government for it to work for?'

I guess the obvious answer, and one that the administration could never say in public, is that if worst came to worst maybe the Army could become the de facto legitimate government. Plenty of other countries have gone down that road, its one that the US and "the west" in general find deeply problematic in dealing with as it contradicts deeply held values about good governance and our responisibility to uphold it. When the Soviets stepped in in 1979, though the Afghan army was weak and faction ridden it was, and had been for some time, perhaps the Afghan state's only real state institution.

I'm not suggesting that this is something that the administration is working towards or would have written down anywhere that could be leaked or controvercially declasified, but it must have crossed their minds. It could probably only happen once US troops leave, but would it be a preferable alternative to an Afghanistan overrun by the Taliban? Maybe. Afghanistan would not be bucking the trend, building a strong military institution has historically generally been quicker and more successful than the building of a legitimate government for it to serve.

This is not something I am advocating, more an answer that perhaps you had already implied in asking the question.

 

JSINAIKO

1:25 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Hmmmm...

I hope you are incorrect - I'm sure that would go over in a huge way with the Taliban guys we are [hopefully] wooing.

I hope they (the Obama administration) understand that the idea is to work on civil society, and soldiers - with a few notable exceptions - generally don't see doing that as part of their job description. At least not in these circumstance. Having a weak Afghan army running the whole show doesn't make much sense.

 

DHPELEGRO

2:05 PM ET

December 7, 2009

I hope so too!

I hope I am incorrect as well, I think it would be their last preference, but a preference none the less.

The whole issue of civil-military relations is a complex one with an extensive literature in its own right. The issue is that generally for an army to be successful it has to have a strong sense of corporate identity. In fragile socieities where civilian leadership is weak this can easily overcome constraints on its power. It is seems likely that, provided the threat of insurgency remains, once the international forces leave the Afghan Army will have a considerable amount of political say in the running of the country. In the US and UK this is moderated by the lack of an existential threat, and the deep seated recognition of the military's role: to be apoilitcal, to advise but not dictate, to recognise without question the legitimacy of civilian authority over the military, which you mention (though this has been challenged for example by Gen MacArthur during the Korean War, and represented a fierce point of debate amongst US scholars in the 1950s that started the civil-military literature in the first place). Will the western civil-military mentality survive transfer to the Afghan Army and the pressure of circumstances? I'm not sure.

*edited for spelling mistakes

 

JSINAIKO

6:27 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Good Points...

I suppose it depends on how the national army ends being structured, If they just take the private armies of various warlords, call them regiments or battalions or whatever, and make the warlords brigadiers or colonels or something, everything will go back to the fragmented "normal" once NATO and the US pulls out and Karzai or his replacement is hung upside down with his junk cut off Najibullah style.

I just don't see how they can create the sort of solidarity that;s needed in a lousy five years - I don't know if thoy could do it if they had 500 years.

 

JPWREL

12:55 PM ET

December 7, 2009

Rubber Ducky

Well, a question that has always interested me is whether the architecture of the Army force structure is driven by strategy and doctrine or by procurement wish lists? If the Army had its way we would have hyper expensive and marginally improved Crusader artillery and other Future Combat Systems without a prescribed mission. Yet at the same time arm our troops with the least effective personal arm (M16/M4) of any major NATO nation.

In fact to be sure the Navy shares in this problem with the constant controversy between such things as the new LCS’s value let alone need, fewer 100k ton mega carriers versus more 60k ton medium carriers, gold plated Seawolf’s versus silver plated Virginia class subs, etc. I won't even mention the Air Force.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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