Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

Here my CNAS colleague Michael McCarthy reports on an unusual book party he attended at Fort McNair, here in Washington, D.C.:

Last night I went down to Fort McNair, home of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA). The occasion was a book launch event for Enduring Voices: Oral Histories of the U.S. Army Experience in Afghanistan 2003-2005. The book, edited by Army historian Christopher Koontz, is textbook-heavy and filled with maps, charts, and long interviews with veterans of those two years of the conflict. The interview subjects range from commanding officer LTG David Barno all the way to a civilian political advisor on one of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams.

In the conference room at McNair, uniformed officers from most of the services filed in while I sat wondering how to pronounce the acronym "NESA" (turns out it's Nee-Suh). Barno-now retired from active duty and the director of NESA-introduced the panel, which was composed of soldiers he'd worked with closely in Afghanistan. Not being a historian of the Afghanistan conflict, I was struck by the relatively rosy picture these men painted of that period in the war: the Taliban resistance was disorganized and ineffective, with little predilection for IEDs; Afghan officers were starting to be embedded with NATO forces and serving as a vital cultural link; and governance was improving. All the panelists were also in agreement about the close and effective working relationship between LTG Barno and Ambassador Khalilzad, holding this up as a model of civil-military cooperation in a warzone.

Of course, all was not well, as even people with obvious vested interests were able to admit. For one, cooperation was poor between the military and most civilian agencies (including those of the three-letter variety). In addition, British MG Peter Gilchrist (ret.) discussed the futility of the U.K.'s counternarcotics portfolio in Afghanistan. This effort ultimately became an attempt to keep order at meetings where some 40 civilian agencies squabbled amongst themselves while refusing to share intelligence. And the Secretary of Defense's micromanaging didn't help either, once he suddenly began holding weekly videoconferences (which "brought us to our knees" in terms of productivity, according to Barno).

Before the event, I thought I would hear plenty about the fate of Afghanistan going forward. But this was a purely history-minded crowd, and aside from a mention of the book's timeliness, none of the participants offered assessments of the war effort today. The words "McChrystal" and "30,000" were deafening in their absence. Doubtless, every person in the room had his or her own well-defined views on what to do next and had probably watched the president's West Point speech three or four times. But it was as if, for just a few hours, everybody wanted to harken back to a different time, when things seemed to be looking up in Afghanistan.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

 
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KINSHANE

5:20 AM ET

December 4, 2009

I was in Afghanistan from

I was in Afghanistan from 2004-5, and I was convinced at the time that we would be mostly out of there by now with NATO finishing up the humanitarian mission/nation-building stuff. The trend lines were all positive for us and negative for Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and fringe insurgent elements. The nightly OPSBUB was frank and honest, but it looked good for us. Casualties were down on our side, up on the side of the bad guys, and PRTs and NGOs were doing great things to build up the infrastructure/economy of that war-torn country. How was I mistaken?

First, we (the US) track progress with monthly and annual metrics, while the enemy thinks generationally. How can strategic thinkers compare those two different scales of operational planning? Second, Afghanistan does not exist in a vacuum. While I was there, the enemy was just starting to learn how to use IEDs. If I am not mistaken, there were almost no IEDs in the summer/fall of 2004, but instead small arms fire, grenade attacks, and rockets (oh, how I remember the rockets). Towards winter 2004 and the beginning of 2005, we started seeing IEDs, but not in great numbers. These were TTPs and lessons learned from AQ in Iraq. While we had learned to beat the current enemy in Afghanistan, he had learned to adapt and improvise. Finally, all of our military successes meant nothing if they were limited to select areas of the country. During my time in Afghanistan, we had to detail soldiers to make up a new TF in Herat. Up until then, there was no significant presence in the entire western section of the country. What good are metrics in a counterinsurgency environment when they only measure force-on-force engagements in terrain of our choosing while ignoring whole swaths of the country that the enemy might be interested in?

I did not mention "McChrystal" or "30,000" either because I just don't know how the current plan will work out, but wanted to tell how 2004-5 seemed "good".

 

6OGUREZ

8:02 AM ET

December 5, 2009

'05 - '06

I was there and witnessed a steep decline in security conditions. The parliamentary elections went without major violence and note that as one of the only bright spots.

First sign of decline- precipitous rise of suicide bombers. Coalition civilians, military and Afghans quickly noted the precipitous rise in suicide bombers had to originate mostly from outside Afghanistan since suicide is culturally verboten. Everytime the Afghan police found remains of the suicide bomber they were quick to label whatever what was left as a "foreigner." Whether true or not it squares with what you saw.

Second sign was that places where violence was rare a few years back began to suffer a dramatic increase in bombings. One example was Ghazni which from 2002 - mid 2005 was relatively peaceful. In less than a year it hit near rock bottom. Even northern provinces had bad flare ups of violence such as Konduz and Badakhshan.

 

JAFFIR

7:45 AM ET

December 4, 2009

Surges

The men and women that carried out the surge in Iraq are Gorgeous, in the old sense of the word. Splendid, brave, well trained, and willing. They continue to be the best people on earth.

However, nothing about the surge was or is mysterious knowledge. In 2003 all the indicators were making themselves painfully apparent to folks driving around Baghdad in taxis full of Iraqi friends. You could see the Muqawma start to happen and the very good Iraqis who we were all talking to could explain it.

Nothing that the US military thought up years later, in carefully thought out surge rethinking is new. It was all extremely basic, already understood, counter insurgency truths. Knock on the door rather than explosively breech it, don't ever put your boot on the back an Arab, drink tea, talk until you jaw is tired. It takes nine seconds to explain this to a soldier, not six years of brain puzzling. It wasn't hard to get this right. Generals are getting credit for understanding what was readable in "The Jungle is Neutral." or "Bugles and a Tiger', or spending an afternoon in a kabob shop in Karada on Thursday night. It is old, not revolutionary, knowledge.

So this surge in Afghanistan is interesting. It takes eight years to figure out we need to change the game plan? Really?

The real question is why didn't the USG launch surges in Iraq and Afghanistan from day one.

Jafir

 

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Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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