Wednesday, December 2, 2009 - 3:50 PM
The other day I joined a reader in wondering about the silence of Gen. Petraeus in recent months. Here is the general's response:
My comment for your blog, Tom, in the wake of the speech:
I agree with General McChrystal that the situation in Afghanistan is "serious," but the mission is "doable." Needless to say, the tasks there are and will remain exceedingly challenging, complex, frustrating, and downright difficult. But we need to do all that we can to ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a safe haven for Al Qaeda as it was before 9/11. The President's policy establishes a clear mission (on which Secretary Gates will elaborate in his testimony) and provides the resources to accomplish it. We need to get the extra US and NATO/non-NATO coalition forces to Afghanistan as quickly as we can -- and that's what we'll endeavor to do.
Alex Wong/Getty Images
The decision has been made and I sincerely wish President Obama, Gen. Petraeus at Central Command, Gen. McChrystal in Kabul but most importantly our fathers and sons and brothers doing the hard work of battling the Taliban all the best possible fortune in this war. I have a very personal stake in this war and he serves at the very tip of the spear and if we must do this thing then I can only hope he gets the material and morale support he needs. I have tremendous confidence in our men in uniform and those of our true ‘fighting’ allies; as usual they will do their part superbly and make us proud.
But alas, in today’s NYT Richard Cohen’s editorial pretty much sums up my own apprehensions that in the end this war turns out badly. We are sawing against the grain of history and culture in a place in the world which Americans have little interest. And since in the end it will all depend on the Afghans themselves to make this a success I wonder who will possess in the long run greater intestinal fortitude, determination and a willingness to sacrifice the Taliban or the Afghan Army and police?
Married the General's Daughter
I looked up his bio to see what connections enabled him to become a senior General. I was surprised that he wasn't from a West Point Dynasty family, but then I see he married the daughter of a four-star Army General, which assured him a star-track career.
Rather than speculate, take a look at this engaging book that tracks the careers of not only GEN Petraeus but Generals Abizaid, Casey and Chiarelli as well.
http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Star-Generals-Struggle-Future/dp/0307409066/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259772207&sr=8-1
Actually, it probably took courage to go to the superintendent of West Point's residence and ask his daughter out - I like that - good for a young Petraeus!
Do you assume that no one can make General on prowess alone? Certainly there is some nepotism in the military - as there is in any profession. But it seems that you have some real X-File-like conspiracy concerns as it relates to West Point dynasties and cronyism.
Really do not deserve replies... but here it goes:
You clearly have absolutely no bloody clue about the commitment, professionalism, sacrifice and, in the case of Gen Petraeus - blood, it takes to attain high rank in the United States military.
When asked if the mission was doeable in the time frame alloted, I would have answered in old movie producer Louis B. Mayer fashion, by stating, "I can give you a definate maybe on that!"
Why by golly, going back over CENTCOM's response, I do believe that's what he said - indirectly?
What a load of crap. Denying AQ the ability to establish a safe haven in Afghanistan is not a meaningful goal (they already have that, in Pakistan) and by itself is not an appropriate goal for US intervention. If that's all we want to accomplish, buy off the Taliban. That would be a hell of a lot cheaper, and make far more sense.
Now, if we have a REAL goal in Afghanistan, then let's talk about that and what the appropriate strategy for achieving that goal is.
A real goal? I am continually surprised by this question and the whole "deny AQ sanctuary" baloney. What its about now is getting out without handing the takfiris a major IO victory, wich means building a form of national government in Afghanistan that can survive for approx 6 years while the US pulls out, after wich the president need never think of it again. This surge is designed to do what it did in Iraq: provide a fundament for withdrawal. All the "AQ sanctuary" drivel is a positive spin on the fact that we can not sustein the forcelevels we have there now for more than a couple of years.
Obama put the fork in COIN last night. Once the debate on tax increases heats up, the public will scream to end it. No more credit cards for the worst generals in US history.
The little tin pot republican general now has a little less than two years to show us the kind of neocon hack he really is.
Admiral, while I have as many misgivings as anyone concerning both the logic and prosecution of this war I think you are going way over the top with invective. The American public indeed may balk at being taxed to pay for this war and certainly I have argued that the neocons and the far right won’t step up to volunteer to financially sacrifice for a war they are so enthusiastic about. But I can easily think of a long line of worse generals in U. S. military history than Petraeus and McChrystal. You are being more than a little hard on commanders who must deal with the most difficult and complex aspects of irregular war.
Glad we finally heard from General David Petraeus. That being said,a few points might be raised:
1.) We will never defeat al-Qa'ida. To expect this as a concrete objective is counter productive to our overall strategy. Islamic Puritanism is broad based and operates in a network like fashion. Cutting the head off in Afghanistan will not kill the snake, unfortunately.
2.) I respect Gen. Petraeus and all the commanders in the field. I must, however, humbly disagree with them. 18 months is not nearly enough to fix the corruption-the biggest roadblock in Afghanistan- of the Karzai government. Further, the drug trade, which promotes and funds corruption and the Taliban, will not be seriously dealt with. Our time frame for achieving our goals is much too short. If we are serious about Afghanistan and the threats it poses (if you believe the threats are any more real than other places like Somalia, Yemen, and Saudi Arabic) then must allocate the time necessary.
Further, Obama has signaled that U.S. "nation building" is our biggest goal. He, correctly, realizes that our strength at home is disappearing; which in turn hinders our ability to project strength abroad. Time to bring our troops home or stick to the fight for years to come (Holbrooke things over a decade). No more of this middle ground, please everyone politics.
Dress Blues did the Army well...
the General and Army came to the West Point speech dressed to the style of honor their work imbues. They honored the President who has supported them.
Nice leadership example, General Petraeus.
Is style over substance so very important? I'd rather they sit in their boxer shorts and take to heart the CinC guidance than look spiffy in their Dress Blues for the boss and pay no attention.
People on this forum are entirely too consumed with General's uniform choices in lieu of their actions.
Having said that, it was fun watching the cadets struggle with boredom and try not to fall asleep. Those high collars remain good for something.
I'm glad someone finally pointed out that the tasks will be "exceedingly challenging, complex, frustrating, and downright difficult." All this time I had thought that they would be exceedingly easy, simple, satisfying, and downright manageable.
This calls to mind a post a few months back on this blog which discussed saying nothing and referred the readers to George Orwell's essay on Politics and the English Language.
The entire reason they speak Orwellian, is to avoid accountability. Orwellian is the language of degenerates and cowards. The media speaks Orwellian (Washington Post, New York Times), because it's the language of their captors.
Petraeus's comment really adds nothing to the discussion. What a surprise, that an active duty general officer in charge of the most chaotic region of the world agrees that his subordinate has said the right things and his president is giving him the right resources. Wow! He really surprised us all with those words.
Look, where the bunny used to be...
What I got from that is 'Gates will do the testifying', and 'allow me to contain your attention on this side of the border.'
With no quick way to improve on Kabul kleptocracy and provincial warlordism, with the embittered Egyptian and his bearded front-man over in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, how do four more brigades of what now passes for light infantry go about 'setting conditions' for success?
The 100,000 troops needed to deny the Pashtun insurgency safe haven already exist in Pakistan, well trained and equipped by regional standards. But employing them against the tribal areas, if the Pakistani generals were willing, would enlarge their civil war, and highlight the general strategy of whipping up islamic extremism for use against India/Kashmir.
Insurgency is partly about outlasting the enemy, while hoping for deterioration in the opposition's motivation. Counterinsurgency is much the same. The strategic center is far from the snipers and mines.
My sneaking suspicion is that the generals realize that eighteen months is not enough. And that really what Obama has proposed is an exit strategy and not a war winning strategy, which is politically and financially off the table.
If we were to withdraw now then it would be an overt American defeat in the eyes of the world. If we can make a show of rebuilding the Afghan Army and police then begin a phased withdrawal in eighteen months that might take years to complete then the defeat can be laid to rest at the feet of the Afghans themselves. We will have done our best but through no fault of our own our clients couldn’t measure up. Not so different from Vietnam where we left with our reputation bruised but not destroyed.
I'd go one further, and suggest that there really is no such thing as a war-winning strategy. Maybe there could be, if we were willing to fight the war in different ways (a million troops, disregard for civilian casualties, direct intervention in Pakistan), but given the current situation and a realistic appraisal of US assets, I don't see one.
I agree completely. However, putting our troops in immediate danger for, in your view-and mine-, no apparent strategic reason is morally bankrupt. Our reputation, if we were to leave today would be damaged but not destroyed. Will 18 months of showboating really save any legitimate face? I hope so.
Tom,
From your comments a few posts ago on Petraeus and now his response which I thank you for posting, I don't buy this...
This is coming from the general who at the time bucked the establishment and commenced, rightfully so, a mini-revolution of military thought in the Army.
Now as a 4-star, a Combatant Commander of the region in question, which by the way is currently the most influential and vital of the Combatant Commands, yet he 'punts' this and refers to the mission as 'doable' and then defers to the Secretary to elaborate on the mission?
Does this not strike you as odd and out of character?
Don't get me wrong, I appreciate that he is lining up behind the strategy the President has set out...but sometimes things just stick out...and this is one of those times.
EURCOM commander Wes Clark was ordered off TV by the WH, during the NATO-Serbia war. P's predecessor Fallon lost his command to an overly sympathetic interviewer, one who remains nameless here.
Gen. Clark argued that his use of mass media was intentional and critical to building and holding his shakey coalition together. (Nobody then was gonna believe that PM Blair would commit troops.) Peer vendettas and WH jealousy over Clark's media-heavy strategy contributed to his early retirement, while his unlikely military-political victory was still playing out. As it turned out, Clark did develop political ambitions, try to use his war fame to challenge a war president.
Clark's infowar availability in some ways provided a model for Gen. Petraeus use of 'public face' for Odierno's 2007 counteroffensive. Speculation (heard here) that todays CENTCOM commander might retire and 'pull a McClellan' would tend to make such a savvy public general cautious.
When the cable-coliseum beast gets hungry, and the crowd restless, even the tiger is prey...
McClellan? The rest of the story is that this prancing egomaniac was crushed in the 1864 election by a rail splitting country rube. :-)
who in my reading was suspected by Lincoln of contemplating an 1864 run. Possibly with the help of Lincoln's Republican rivals, who constructed a story that he should step aside 'for the good of the party.'
Lincoln reportedly called Gen. Grant in, felt him out, and reckoned that he probably would accept the advice to finish winning the war before making a march on the WH. The Dem. nomination went to McClellan, who as you say led his party to a resounding defeat, while Grant went on to two terms as President.
The point is that McClellan's play sucked, while Grant's pic is worth $50. I'm pretty sure Gen. Petraeus is getting better advice than dapper Mac.
Petraeus has to survive Axelrod
The White House game plan likely includes firing General Petraeus in order to neuter him as a potential 2012 GOP nominee. The Chicago pols running this White House are keen on the strategy of eliminating opponents through appointment or other subterfuge - witness Secretary of State Clinton (eliminating a primary challenger), Jon Huntsman (doing away with an excellent possible GOP nominee by exiling him to Beijing), John McHugh (picking up a House seat for the Democrats by appointing him SecArmy), and would-be SecCommerce Judd Gregg (who would have given the Democrats their 60th vote if he had not had woken up to his being snookered).
Professional GOP operatives consider General Petraeus to be an ideal nominee in 2012 - the second coming of Dwight Eisenhower. I witnessed Petraeus' star power amongst the hoi polloi when he gave the commencement address to my son's class at VMI in May 2009. The reaction of the crowd to his presence was electric. In many ways he is the anti-Obama: business-like, accomplished, successful, ramrod-straight, and with personal courage that has been created by a career of service rather than through political scheming. And they usual "Dumb Republican" jibe won't work on a Princeton Ph.D.
I think the only person who needs to be convinced of his ability to be promoted to Commander-in-Chief is General Petraeus himself. Let's hope he is able to escape the hangman's noose that David Axelrod is fashioning for him.
Obama is going to need a fall guy to blame if his newfangled strategy goes all pear-shaped, probably some time next Autumn (and if it works, Petraeus will still need to go in order to allow the President to claim all the credit). Throwing Petraeus under the bus in the run-up to the midterms makes perfect political sense for the Democrats, they will continue to be able to beat the "It's all Bush's fault" drum that they hope will save their bacon.
Oh C'mon - that's star chamber stuff. Pure guesswork and bet even particularly well-reasoned.
You seem to be implying that the administration knows it will fail in AfPak and have already set up Petraeus as the "fall guy."
Up to now there is no indication that Obama is going to fire anyone who he hasn't to date. Wouldn't it have been easier to follow the polls, call the GOP dumb, and fire Petraeus now and not send any troops anywhere?
And as a Chicagoan I am getting sick and tired of the Chicago pol meme. It's BS. Obama is not a creature of Daley nor is Axelrod even though Axelrod has run a couple of Daley's campaigns. These guys are way to the left of Daley, who is on the right wing fringe of the Democratic party and are much slicker than Daley who isn't very manipulative or bright.
So which is it: Machiavellian maneuvering a year or two in advance to can Petraeus and win another term, or the bull-headed, obtuse, stubborn, crooked, Daley machine clone? You can't have it both ways.
Finally, Afghanistan isn't Korea - we had sustained almost 50,000 dead by 1953, Truman wasn't running again, and the troops weren't being pulled out at that point - and militarily it was a stalemate with WWII levels of casualties.
Furthermore, the American public is concerned with domestic issues these days - Afghanistan is a side show, and very few presidential campaigns except the 1968 campaign are about foreign policy.
Petraeus has never been elected dog catcher, hasn't been in the public eye (Ike ran Columbia U before running for president and had a huge profile previously, much bigger than Petraeus'), and has zero experience with domestic policy. If you think that the 2012 campaign will be a referendum on Afghanistan, I have some nice land in the Hindu Kush you might be interested in buying.
You can think what you want about Obama, but this is not about electoral politics - if it was he would have pulled everyone out of Afghanistan, taken the GOP hits about cutting and running, and moved forward with more politically pressing domestic issues that get positive responses in the polling.
I happen to agree with most of the posters here that this is not going to do much good, and may in fact hurt - and it certainly will hurt Obama and the Dems electorally, but I'd be very surprised if Petraeus was fired or if he runs in 2012.
Did the Taliban ever support Al Qaeda?Or was it Saudis?
The Taliban never invited Bin Laden to there country. Hes was there when they took charge. After fleeing from Sudan in the early 90's. All they did is live by there moral Pashtunwali code. For his services in the Soviet invasion of there country. I believe the Taliban basically had Bin Laden confined to his compound at Daronta. The Taliban also initiated talks in Frankfurt in 2000 with the EU facilitated by Afghan-American businessman Kabir Mohabbat. To decide the fate of Bin Laden. The Taliban also gave Clinton the go ahead to launch a couple of cruise missiles at the compound. Believing it to be the easiest way to deal with the problem. So if the Taliban have a history of being our allies against Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. Why the offical about face towards them? Especially with National Security Advisor James Jones saying there are less than 100 operating Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. As the former UK Ambassador Craig Murray disclosed, the purpose of the war is to protect Unocal’s interest in the Trans-Afghanistan pipeline or TAPI. Beside the obivious Karzai connection. Right now Europe is dependant on its oil from Russia. Russias control over the flow of oil gives them leverage over NATO related decisions. The US has been trying to build a pipeline without going through Russia or Iran. What better way to get the oil from Turkmenistan and neighboring countries than a pipeline through Afghanistan to the Indian ocean. This would be a cash cow for any US company involved. It would also represent a significant improvement in the geostrategic position of the U.S. in the region. Why else would we still be going to war with a country that didnt invade us. That has little Al Qaeda ties or involvment (until we showed up) and, That 57% of Americans dont support.
Bin Laden 'turned' Omar's Taliban
Your question regarding Saudi support for the Taliban is pertinent. Pakistan is always going broke, between corruption, mismanagement and a bottomless need to re-arm and lose wars against India. So whatever they plowed into the muj, they got from somewhere else. Pakistan's once-favorite muj Haqqani screwed himself by preaching agin the Saudi royalty, before he could get to Kabul. Omar's faction initially cultivated Saudi advice and funding.
Bin Laden deliberately 'turned' Omar's Taliban faction, according to Steve Coll's exhausting 'Ghost Wars' account, disappointing Saudi and Pakistani expectations that a sovereign Taliban gov't would keep a lid on bin Laden's attacks on Saudi legitimacy.
Coll says that Omar's Taliban styled themselves as Toyota-mounted spiritual heirs to Ibn Saud's 'Ikhwan' camel-cavalry, and historical heirs to the Durani dynasty's Greater Pashtunistan empire.
The Saudis were known to fund many factions in the Afghanistan succession struggle. Just as the Brits did with the Ibn Saud and Faisal, his Hashemite rival. Or the US is now doing in Iraq.
The ability to back both sides (Musharaf and Benazir? Karzai and Abdullah?) is a sign of real strategic depth. I said that. ;)
Isn't it pretty cool that Gen. Petraeus actually responded to Mr. Ricks question? This sort of validates the inordinate amount of time I spend reading this blog and many of the comments. From this I infer that the author is not some crazy dude in bunny slippers and maybe a lot of you commenters actually know what you are talking about. Thanks.
is an important part of infowar staff work. McArthur's staff was said to be quite proficient, probably with an E. coast annex, and one supposes that Julius C. had ears in the marketplace.
Any bigtime organization strives to be strategic in feeding sympathetic reporters, before unreturned calls turn sour.
Sadly, Tiger isn't organized just now.
Actually, George Marshall thought Macarthur’s staff were not efficient merely sycophants. In fact GM called it a court not a staff. Marshall recommended changes particularly in his Chief of Staff the slime bag Sutherland but MacArthur would have none of it. MacArthur apparently felt that loyalty was more important that integrity and competence. We would see this again in Korea.
Additionally, MacArthur had to be careful with Sutherland since the latter had first hand knowledge of MacArthur’s astounding incompetence and faulty judgment in the Philippines at the beginning of the war. The possibility that Sutherland might spill the beans likely kept him in a job for which he was unqualified.
No mention last night by POTUS of the cost to our service members, and the need to support them on the back end of these wars... Divorce, suicides, unemployment,homelessness, bankruptcies, are all up for our servicemen and women and it will be the cost for our returning soldiers, some on their 6th tour.
As most of you know these are kids 18, 19, 20 some years old.. They will need support and government assistance for the rest of their lives.
Where is the speech to speak to their needs? We can not short change them and as of now we are woefully unprepared to deal with the long term affects of these policies on our armed service members...
Although obvious I still find it remarkable how the internet has changed the interaction between ordinary people, like us commenting, journalists and bloggers, and the military. Gen. Petraeus responding to your post is one example but an even more profound one is the U.K. military asking the Kings of War readers to help devise new doctrines. I'm not sure if this is good or bad but it is certainly interesting.
Second, in response to Dr. Lake's first comment, I am also skeptical about how vital our interests are given the costs and risks of the missions but your comments don't help. AQ's "safe haven" in Pakistan has caused them significant problems in funding, recruiting, and operationally planning terrorist attacks. With the exception of gaining alliances with other terror groups in recent years, AQ has been significantly weakened by being stuck in the mountains of Pakistan. Also, if we don't have forces on the ground, I'm not sure buying off the Taliban would be very effective. How would we enforce their compliance or even be positive that they were or weren't compiling? Also how could the Taliban keep AQ out if it wanted to when that we can't even control the borders or a lot of the territory and a NATO withdrawal would lead to a multi-dimensional civil war where what we call the Taliban would be at least three competing forces among many?
To respond to your questions:
I would argue that relocating to Pakistan itself has had nothing to do with AQ's problems raising funds, recruiting, and conducting operations. Rather, those are the result of a concerted effort to deny them access to funds by acting against Islamic charities, businesses, and the like that provided them their funding; as well as actually paying attention to AQ and deliberately interfering with their coordination and communications. While Pakistan is not truly a safe haven due to Predator strikes, as others have noted before it is far better connected to international communications and transportation infrastructure, so is a better location for AQ than Afghanistan was.
You're right, in that we can't be sure that the Taliban would keep their end of the deal if we were to buy them off. However, to turn that around, why should we assume they wouldn't? There are enough indications that they were not committed to AQ's agenda prior to 9/11, and they clearly have different interests than AQ. As such, there is potential leverage there that we ignore at our peril by treating them as if they are one entity. At the moment, the Taliban is protecting AQ. If they were to cut a deal with us, they would at the least have to lessen their protection to the point it was not apparent if they wanted to receive the quid pro quo.
As for keeping AQ out, you don't think the Taliban would have an easier time doing that than we are? They are native to the area, after all, while we are foreigners who have issues interfacing with the locals. All they need to do is suppress AQ better than we do, and we win. Maybe they'll fail, but we're doing OK suppressing AQ internationally but very poorly at suppressing it in the region, so this has potential.
Finally, I would argue that a civil war zone would not provide a stable and safe operational environment for AQ. While some factions would support them, you can also guarantee that some would be actively hostile and the dynamic environment of an internal conflict would mean any AQ base would be vulnerable to destruction by those hostile factions. I'm much more concerned about the human cost of a civil war after US withdrawal than I am about the strategic implications of one.
BTW, while I do have a Ph.D., the "dr" in my handle refers to my first two initials, not my title. I'm not nearly that full of myself. :)
the big advantage of nuclear IRP'stan for hiding AQ
is that it's... NUCLEAR!
If Iran had harbored the AQ command cell in 2002, we'd have mobilized a 5-10 million draftee army, if necessary, to go after them. Nuclear trumps conventional, but neither stops suicide tech.
So what is the lesson of a nuclear armed IRP'stan (or Israel), to a country like Iran or Egypt or Cuba? True sovereignty is when QE-1 can stick her thumb in King Phillip's popish eye, in spite of his superior wealth and land army.
- in Portuguese Language (Brazil)
Quando chegou ao Iraque, o General Petraeus encontrou um país em chamas. Cento e sessenta mil Soldados Americanos estavam desorientados diante de um inimigo combatente ilegal que havia transformado Bagdá em um um lodaçal de sangue e pedaços de corpos humanos. Não havia um precedente para aquele cenário na História Militar e Petraeus do alto da sua condição de Comandante Combatente teve a humildade que só um estadista tem para perguntar como funcionava a mente terrorista. Sua atitude me impressionou profundamente e só fez aumentar a minha admiração pelo Exército Americano. Desde 11 de Setembro de 2001 eu observava cada movimento de bin-Laden até o ponto em que suas idéas não me surpreenderam mais. Enviei um e-mail para a CIA respondendo a pergunta do General e suportei em minha solidão a fúria daqueles que me confundiram com o inimigo. Hostilidades à parte, fui surpreendido pela eficiência com que a guerra foi conduzida por Petraeus. Eu tenho a capacidade de interpretar o pensamento terrorista, mas não conheço ninguém que tenha a capacidade de Petraeus de adaptar a Tropa aos rigores da guerra de guerrilha urbana em tão pouco tempo e impor uma derrota fulminante nas forças da al-Qaeda no Iraque e reduzi-la a grupos de desgarrados refugiados na fronteira com o pensamento concentrado na própria sobrevivência.
Petraeus é um estrategista brilhante e um gênio na arte de administrar limitações.
Em sua condição de Comandante Combatente, não cabe a ele questionar as ordens do Comandante-em-Chefe das Forças Armadas dos Estados Unidos, mas sim cumpri-las da melhor forma possível.
Petraeus tem consciência de que a Guerra Global contra o Terrorismo é um confronto de múltiplos fronts e que tomar decisões baseadas em fatos ou lugares isolados é um equívoco induzido pelo estrategista inimigo.
Petraeus é um dos raros pensadores que compreende a real dimensão do momento estratégico atual.
Em minha condição de observador, eu presto atenção em tudo o que ele fala e principalmente naquilo em que ele se cala.
You just looked up GEN Petraeus's bio NOW?
Where have you been for the past seven years? He's been a public figure since 2003, and a very major public figure since 2007...not having read his cursory official bio by now marks you as an ignoramus who should not be inflicting their opinions on others.
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