Gen. Casey to geeks: China’s middle class worries me

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Wednesday, November 18, 2009 - 5:14 PM Share

My CNAS colleague Amanda Hahnel went to a dinner Monday night with most of the computer geeks in Northern Virginia. (A lot of defense and intelligence computers are humming away out there, so that's a big crowd.) The dinner speaker was Gen. George Casey, chief of staff of the U.S. Army. This is Amanda's report:

I found myself a bit out of place last night as I went to TechCelebration, the Northern Virginia Technical Council's big annual event. I'm not going to lie; sitting at a table with hardcore technology geeks is a little intimidating for someone who has trouble fixing basic computer problems.
I was excited to hear General George Casey speak about the future of the Army ... and he sort of did. Gen Casey broke his speech down to answer two distinct questions: How is the Army doing? And where is the Army going? Most people would assess present capacities and shortcomings before offering a future plan of action, but Gen Casey took a different tack.
He described what he believes to be the future operating environment, one filled with ideological struggles with opponents that need to be defeated. He looked at how globalization, technology, and demographic trends will all result in an increase in urban conflict. He went a bit further to predict that we would have "a decade or so of persistent conflict" with violence to achieve political and ideological goals. Mostly things you can read in the JOE.
The nugget of his speech that really struck me though, being a "natural security" nerd, was when Casey said that the "middle class in China is larger than the entire population of the United States; this will increase pressure on resources." A few sentences later he listed this as a source of future conflict.
While Gen Casey was certainly not saying we are about to go to war with China, I thought it was quite telling that he is watching global resources of raw materials as a source of conflict.

ELIZABETH DALZIEL/AFP/Getty Images

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STEVE358

5:40 PM ET

November 18, 2009

Gen Casey's Comments

Tom:

Thanks for General Casey's insight.

I just came from a CNA Roundtable on the future of Pfrovincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Iraq and Afghanistan. The regular debates about whether the military, State or USAID should take the lead.

USIP's Bob Perito, however, pointed out the obvious---the debate should not be about who controls the PRTs, but about the fact that a successful US Reconstruction/Engagement Model is still very much a work in progress.

All I could think about during that roundtable was an old axiom from grad school: Knowledge is transferable, but wisdom is not.

As General Casey notes, the future is likely to be defined by very different conflicts than we have mastered to date, and driven by demographics and resource conflicts that emerge and grow outside the current tactical debates and interagency squabbles.

Watching China's relentless pursuit of economic and resource objectives in Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, Pakistan, etc..., while we pursue military/political ones with huge costs and externalities, reminds me that we have not yet grasped the bigger wisdoms of the World.

General Casey challenges us to ask: How do we get to a place where wisdom in international relations and objectives evolves out of the scattered bits and pieces of our recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan?

The future will not be good to those who don't understand how to engage and prosper in a future as complex as General Casey describes.

Steve

JPWREL

11:24 PM ET

November 18, 2009

"Watching China's relentless

"Watching China's relentless pursuit of economic and resource objectives in Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, Pakistan, etc..., while we pursue military/political ones with huge costs and externalities, reminds me that we have not yet grasped the bigger wisdoms of the World."

Very profound. This is one of the most insightful comments I have read on this issue.

Thanks

ZJIN

6:00 PM ET

November 18, 2009

Senseless war or aimless war,

Senseless war or aimless war, they are all I could say about the current wars that US is fighting. You are actually actively creating and training the terrorists. What recruiting slogans can be better than those to promote fighting the evil west invaders? What training camp is better than the real battlefield to fight your enemy?

RUBBER DUCKY

8:53 PM ET

November 18, 2009

Where are the cammies?

That guy is sooo out of uniform...

(Remember, when you send in $129 and your shirt size, we will send you a pair of real cammies and you too can be a fearless warrior.)

IRR SOLDIER...

10:14 PM ET

November 18, 2009

He's sporting the Army's Next Uniform Atrocity - the "ASU"

Actually, he's wearing the Army's latest uniform atrocity - the "Army Service Uniform" that aims to meld our Green Class As and formal Dress Blues into a single, not-quite service, not-quite formal uniform. In the process, we are ditching the green/olive/tan/brown theme we've had over the past 100+ years, our full-color division/combat patches and worst of all, our full-size Ranger/Sapper/Special Forces tabs. The Class B configuration of this uniform makes soldiers look like contract security guards or "mall cops."

If you look closely at some of our Army Senior leaders you can "read between the lines" and see that this is not the most popular plan. In fact, I've only met a handful of soldiers over the past 4 years of this saga who think it is a "good idea." Despite this reality, we are repeatedly told by GEN Casey and SMA Preston that "this is what the soldiers wanted." To that I say, nonsense.

The ASU is one of the final, lingering clusterf---s of the disasterous GEN Peter Schoomaker era. For some reason, GEN Casey views the position of Army Chief of Staff similarly to that of the Pope - in other words, he sees the decisions of his predecessors as infallible ones that should never be revisted no matter how much they should be (e.g. the ACU, the ASU, and the new custom of Army Chiefs of Staff wearing ACUs to the World Series, The Army Navy Game, Ivy League Universities or Memorial services).

I was holding out hope that the new Army Secretary, John McHugh, would stand up for the Army and sanity by revisiting this decision (he chided GEN Schoomaker about his original ASU decision in '06) - much like the USAF Secretary did in the '90's when he scrapped GEN McPeak's "airline" version of USAF Class A's. Unfortunately, time is ticking and no one is taking action. I hope we can save our heritage, unit history and Tabs ...

JJH722

12:20 AM ET

November 20, 2009

with the telegraph's report

with the telegraph's report about the us government pressuring the IEA to raise dramatically its projections for future oil production, casey's concerns are lent an increased urgency. But they are hardly new. And there are other reasons to worry about the Chinese middle class. They are fiercely nationalistic, and despite some Westerners' assumptions the internet doesn't really help us make inroads. It just serves to channel that nationalism. With the financial crisis providing, China looks to be intesifying its "anti-separatist" (i.e., Tibet/Xinjiang) campaign. They have never tried to pressure international leaders this hard on not meeting the Dalai Lama--the comments from the foreign ministry calling on Obama not to meet the Dalai Lama, then comparing the CCP's takeover of Tibet to Lincoln's role in the Civil War were a throwback to the Maoist era. It will be interesting to see if this new-found assertiveness affects cross-straits ties, especially if things with the current KMT administration get bumpier. There are several possible leadership changes on the horizon around 2012 in China, the US, and Taiwan. This could prove to be an explosive mixture, especially if the economy remains depressed and protectionist feeling becomes more pervasive.

TIMBERLAND

7:31 AM ET

December 11, 2009

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