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Saudis and Israelis: small but significant actions
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 11:36am
Two small military actions in recent days intrigue me. First, the Israelis intercepted in the Mediterranean what they described as a shipload of weapons headed to Hezbollah. Then the Saudis bombed Yemeni rebels. I don't know quite what it all means...
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What it all means? Sounds
What it all means? Sounds like standard Middle East political jockeying to me.
What It Be Like
It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise for Israel as this is nothing new. al-Usbu' news out of Egypt ran an article back in April stating an unidentified ship had sunk an Iranian vessel most likely headed for Gaza. In addition, back in January (maybe later), the IAF attacked a convoy in Sudan that was most likely heading for the ferry crossing at Qantarah (Suez).
Most of these Iranian arms shipments to Hamas and Hezbollah come courtesy of Iran's IRGC Qods Force - a caring and sharing outfit. :|
Sounds more likely to be a
Sounds more likely to be a coincidence. True the Yemeni government has accused Iran of backing the rebels (which may or may not be true), but that hardly means that Saudi Arabia and Israel would coordinate actions in that way on two different issues.
As for the bombings, it's entirely possible that it was in retaliation for several dead Saudi soldiers, or it could have been part of a shadow war with Iran in Yemen.
Few coincidences in the ME
Grant, our strategic blunder into Mesopotamia has resulted in the decline of our influence in the Gulf region. The Saudi Kingdom and Israel both believe it has brought about a rise of Iranian power. Remember, the House of Saud has always been at odds with Tehran on who will be the regional power broker. (Years ago, under the Pahlavi regime, the U.S. had an unoffical "two pillars" policy playing them against each other.)
The Saudis believe they face threats from both al-Qaeda and Iran. They have also quietly had accomodating relations with Israel, and may have in fact given Israel the go-ahead on attacking Iran's nuclear sites in the future, utlizing parts of Saudi air space
The point being: indeed Israel and the House of Saud would collaborate on a common enemy - though not openly!
Incidentally, if one is familiar with the comings and goings in Abu Dhabi, is a people watcher, and knows where to look, it is not uncommon to see interesting individuals holding third country passports sitting together.
Marriage made in heaven?
This just means that the love match between Saudi and Israel (as the conservative clients of US in the region) is being cemented.
I don't know quite what it all means.
The gulf Arabs and the Saudis detest and fear the Iranians more than they hate Israel. For the past couple of years the US has been a spectator in Iraq as these two regional players vie for supremacy there.
If the US withdrew from Iraq and the Israelis stopped treating the Palestinians so badly then the Saudis and gulf Arabs would happily reach an accommodation with Israel to limit Iranian influence. After all the Arabs have hated the Persians for a few thousand years longer than they have hated the Jews.
So use diplomacy;
(diplomacy [di-ploh-muh-see] –noun
1. the conduct by government officials of negotiations and other relations between nations.
2. the art or science of conducting such negotiations.
3. skill in managing negotiations, handling people, etc., so that there is little or no ill will; tact:)
rather than war;
killing lots of people and bankrupting yourself.
It really is that simple or at least a lot simpler than constantly leading with your chin.
Seriously does no one in the US government know this? Step out of the way and let the Arabs and Persians squabble, you don't need to get involved. Your clients in Israel would also be a lot more secure if they realised this.
Or you could spend the next twenty years bleeding to death in a region you don't understand, fighting people you don't understand, for reasons no one can consistently articulate.
Do you know what it means yet?
This I doubt
"The gulf Arabs and the Saudis detest and fear the Iranians more than they hate Israel."
Talk to someone from the Arabian peninsula about it.
They really don't like Iranians. The Saudi religious authorities dislike Shias a lot more than they do Jews or Christians. A typical narrative in that part of the world is not dissimilar from a neo conservative viewpoint. They blame all the troubles in the region on Iran.
Conservative theocrats in Saudi Arabia see Shi'ism as a form of heresy far worse than any other religion as they think it smacks of polytheism. All of these things are meaningless to us but they matter a great deal to the Saudis.
Religious extremists in Pakistan spend a good deal of their time attacking Shias and they are funded by gulf religious charities.
Sisyphus sprints up the hill
What does the Israeli interdiction mean? Probably the same thing that it means when DEA intercepts a boat of cocaine. A whole lot of nothing, but a spiffy headline.
About right
To a large degree you're on the mark. Isreal needs this for international consumption, just like our DEA needs a few large seizures now and then for domestic audience (but not too many - we'd destabilize Mexico).
Much of what Hamas aquires is air dropped by Iran into the Med in flotation containers and picked-up by Palastinian small boats that the Israeli Navy can never hope to interdict - and there's the Gaza tunnels (scarry: they're always collapsing, they need N. Korean expertise).
As for Yemen, might want to
As for Yemen, might want to check out Waq al-Waq. Greg's a pretty smart guy and is the closest thing to a Yemen specialist in the Princeton NES dept. right now.