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David Wood is even more worried about Afghanistan
And that means you start chewing on your fingernails, too:
... the U.S. strategy rests on an undemocratic, corrupt and weak central government, a president who cheated his way into office in an election held under American supervision, an election that even the government of Afghanistan concedes was stolen. The script couldn't have been improved if Taliban chieftain Mullah Omar had put himself to the task.
Can this get any worse?
What I'm hearing today from some of the U.S. troops in Afghanistan is: uh-oh. . . . For the Taliban, Karzai's assumption of a second presidential term validates their argument that the U.S.-backed government in Kabul is terminally corrupt and must be overthrown; re-energized, they will recruit and fight harder."
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images









This is heartening
From the end of the article:
"If there is a silver lining here, it is the opening created for the Obama administration to shift its focus from creating a strong central government to simply ignoring the capital and focusing on building good governance in Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Strong provincial government seems a better fit with Afghanistan's history and ethnic and tribal divisions.
The southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, for instance, can be comfortably managed with strong Pashtun governments; in the same way, some of the northern provincial governments are already dominated by Tajiks.
Provincial governors are not elected, however; they are appointed by the president. It would take legislation to change this stranglehold of patronage. It seems like a timely idea."
We need to be looking at this without our filters... there is an answer here....
McClatchy reporting the same
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/78214.html
About time.
Just as the Iraqi's rejected decentralization so the Afghan's now have the opportunity to reject centralization.
Indeed
Karzai is just one corrupt warlord among many....we should use more carrot and stick with the lot of them. There is a great deal of managerial talent, if you can call it that, outside the Kabul bubble. Those are the guys we should be seeking out and supporting.If Karzai were to disappear tomorrow it wouldn't make much difference to our interests. In fact if I were Karzai I might want to read the history of the Vietnam conflict, particularly the chapter about a guy name Diem...
David Ingatius in his column
David Ingatius in his column in the WP today apparently thinks we need to give Karzai a 1-year time frame to bring corruption under control or we are out. In the column he pretty much explains why such an ultimatum would likely not work so it all seemingly comes down to a cynical positioning in US domestic politics. Now there is a great reason to have your son or father blown to kingdom come in an IED attack.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/03/AR2009110302626.html
Tom, thank you, thank you, thank you
For including more voices in your posts, especially one that highlighted the political situation over the military one. Would you agree with his assessment:
I would. And I see that this goal has almost nothing to do with how many foreign troops are on the ground. In fact, more troops will likely undermine that goal. Do you agree?
Nope
But thanks!
Cheers,
Tom
Why?
Perhaps you could elucidate your analysis on this point. The "why" more troops would benefit the situation is important. I personally can think of several. Foremost is that security is essential if any of the civil sector benefits are to be achieved. Are you suggesting any others?
Okay, how about this one
Does the Karzai government have any chance at being a "strong, democratic central government"?
And if it does, question two, will the Afghan public ever trust it?
Tom ‘cheerfully’ does not
Tom ‘cheerfully’ does not agree with Norwegian Shooter's point of view above and I think I understand why. Tom understandably is not ready to throw in the towel on Afghanistan and seems to support an alternative strategy, which is a modification of the old ‘enclave strategy’ of Vietnam. This strategy was essentially to restrict American troops to areas already in Saigon’s control particularly along the coast of Vietnam. Westmoreland strongly opposed this approach as defeatist and virtually demanded a major conventional escalation and ‘taking the battle to the enemy’. Westmoreland won out and the rest is history.
The enclave strategy was a creation of Gen. Maxwell Taylor who resisted the introduction of large numbers of American combat troops into Vietnam for a host of sensible reasons. By keeping those American troops already in country in the heavily defended coastal region it theoretically allowed the ARVN to patrol and secure the countryside.
Hopefully, Tom will correct my association of him with this policy if I am wrong and misunderstand his thoughts on the subject. Enclave never really had a chance to prove whether it was a viable strategy or not since the military were determined on wholesale war. But it would seem to me that a form of Afghan enclave would be a very long-term strategy requiring us to stick to it for a very extended period of time? My question is whose willpower does Tom think is stronger in such a situation the American public’s or the Taliban?