There is a lesson here that common sense in foreign policy is actually a pretty rare commodity. The invasion of Iraq was a huge strategic blunder not worthy of our country’s best traditions and costly in both blood and treasure.

However, most Americans while not particularly enthusiastic about the war in Iraq never really give it the critical attention it deserved. This is largely because the general population is isolated from sharing the risks and bearing the financial costs of this military misadventure.

In this era of volunteer armed forces the mortal risks are leveled largely upon a modest number of military and naval families. And of course almost no politician ever proposes that we at least share the financial burden if not the blood burden of these wars through higher taxes on all the citizenry.

Indeed, the most vociferous cheerleaders of these wars seem to be the most adamant against raising revenues in order to pay for them. This last fact pretty much establishes the neocon/Republican posture on the wars as being nothing more than outrageous cynical mendacity. It is now evident that the bellicosity of the hawks was merely cheap theater and political opportunism and not based on the sound footing of principle.

Mullah Atari is hanging out in Qom, with no fear of arrest or any moral outrage among the international community for the genocide perpetrated on his orders in Baghdad. Who ordered the slaughter of more people: Karadzic or Sadr?

One of the smartest people I’ve ever known — a Houston oil man with a couple of decades of experience in the Middle East, Africa and South America — once said to me as we were discussing the atrocities of the day, “Most Americans think that everybody else is just like us only they talk funny.” Over the past six years, every time I would read about events in Iraq and Afghanistan, that little comment would come to mind as I considered the rose colored glasses through which the U.S. Administration of the day was viewing these two nations.

I was intrigued that Alissa made a comment about the Kurds having a past, too, was instructive.

You start with the long-forgotten Assyrian fortified town of Arrapha, now known as Kirkuk, and ask: Where did the Assyrians go?

Then you move on to the Turkoman Arrapha/Kirkuk of the British Oil Days (Gertrude Bell, etc...)and ask: Where di the Turkoman majority go?

Then you move to the present-day Kirkuk---arguably the historic homeland of the Kurds and ask: When did that happen?

Obviously, there is far more history driving these conflict and post-conflict zones (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc...) than we seem, as Americans, to hold in our heads long enough to understand the full picture. Maybe, however, as Scmedlap points out, there are viable answers in the kinds of old relationships that, for example, connect from Qom to Mecca via the Haj road.

Steve

In light of the difficulties mentioned by jpwrel, Schmedlap, and PaulG, throwing US Soldiers at this problem is a tragedy. US Soldiers were not trained to be social workers.

"And victory in Iraq almost always begets revenge."

GET OUT!

Have you all seen this wonderful animation of the imperial history of the Middle East? You see, in a few seconds, how revenge may have come to be such a powerful force there.
http://www.mapsofwar.com/ind/imperial-history.html

Rubin's article is very impressive. Sobering and sad.

The problem with Rubin's post is that she ignores the current situation in Iraq. Sunnis are not seeking revenge. They realized that they lost the sectarian war and made a mistake boycotting the 2005 elections, and are now intent on getting involved in politics. Many are doing this by aligning with Shiites such as Sheikh Abu Risha in Anbar who aligned with Interior Minister Bolani a Shiite, Sheikh Suleiman of Anbar who joined Maliki's State of Law List, Sheikh Hayes of Anbar who joined the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance, Selah al-Mutlaq and the Awakening Councils of Diyala who joined with Ilyad Allawi. Many Baathists and insurgents in Ninewa also backed the al-Hadbaa party who won the 2009 provincial elections there, and are going to run in 2010 as well. This accounts for the improved security situation. 2009 has seen the lowest death and attack statistics since the 2003 invasion, and that's because many Sunnis, including insurgents want a say at the table, especially before the U.S. leaves.

Too many people only follow Iraq by press reports that are disproportionately about bombings and other violence, which give the impression that Iraq is in constant chaos, when in fact, the country has a new status quo since the end of the sectarian war, which is based upon political struggles rather than fighting, but is sadly hardly ever reported about in the U.S.

Just look at the newest security statistics. Weekly attacks are down in 11 of Iraq's 18 provinces, and 13 have less than 10 incidents a week. See: http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/

Behind all the political jockeying, Iraq's citizens are tired of war, and anxious to move forward, as is evident by consistent voting patterns for improved government performance in January 2008.

So, the question is, can Iraq's evolving political and governance structure deliver, or, will it break down into sectarian divisions?

Americans may be interested in this question, but Iraq's citizens are truly holding their breathe, hoping for a productive and peaceful future.

Isn't that the same marker Tom put down by the provocative title of this on-going series?

Obama deserves most of the credit for the lull in fighting credited to "the surge." Candidate Obama was sure to win and promised to withdraw American troops in 16 months. Factions in Iraq realized that it was pointless to fight the Americans since they were leaving. It was better to stockpile ammo and recruit soldiers for the civil war. This is why the surge was a "success."

Maliki has really been unable to check violent extremists in Iraq. When will the US realize its man in Iraq is responsible for making the conditions worse on the ground? I just saw Ayad Jamal AlDin’s platform and his ideas for a secular, unified Iraq seem like a much better way to counter internal and international extremists in Iraq.