What's up up with Abdullah Abdullah?

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Saturday, October 31, 2009 - 9:27 PM Share

As predicted (at the end of the post) in this blog on Friday, old Abdullah Abdullah is threatening to pull out of the Afghan run-up.

Here is a comment from my friend Mac McCallister, who has spent a lot of time on the ground in dangerous places recent years:

My prediction... He won't [pull out]... He is only maneuvering for a better deal... more access to spoils.
We have helped create this situation... and may actually still be manipulating the process. We have weakened Karzai by calling him out... (blood in the water). We have strengthened Abdullah Abdullah with hagiographic fawning in the popular press... Karzai needs us more than ever becasue we have explained in no uncertain terms that we can always change horses.
Abdullah Abdullah's faction is now taking advantage of the situation to gain at the expense of his rival... "Never let a good crisis go to waste"... Abdullah Abdulah can not allow this power play to get out of control... and he will therefore manage the "crisis" accordingly. He can't rule A-stan and he knows it.. Abdullah Abdullah now needs us more than ever..
Win-win for the U.S. My compliments to Sec of State Mrs Clinton and her strategists.
The Pashtun Karzai is still the front-man in this charade... In the meantime all will send delegates to Abdullah Abdullah to talk him off the ledge... The negotiations to keep Abdullah Abdullah in the game will be interpreted by all that Abdullah Abdullah has both credibility and legitimacy. In the end.. Abdullah Abdullah's faction will be offered a greater share of the spoils... Karzai will be President... and the government will continue to frustrate the hell out of us.
Or maybe not...

EXPLORE:ELECTIONS

(11)

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HAIRYSTEVE20

10:49 PM ET

October 31, 2009

Abdullah

Abdullah was at one time a client of the Soviets. If he could find another sponsor who promises him power he may well jump ship. Not that he would tell anyone in the American government that he had done so. The Russians or the Chinese would be happy to have a front ready when the Americans pull out.

Dostum and many other regional warlords in Afghanistan would change sides in an instant if they thought it would benefit them and indeed most of them probably maintain contacts with everyone they can. At the moment Abdullah and others are waiting to see whether the US will pull out in the next few years. If he thinks they will it may well be in his interests to distance himself from Karzai now.

If Abdullah announces he is not participating in the election then it means he does not think America will be there in 2012 or thereabouts. Other players in Afghanistan and beyond will take note accordingly and the next few years will be a story of political paralysis in Kabul with an angry and fractious Karzai becoming increasingly isolated.

So Abdullah's decision is looking crucial. The best that Obama can hope for is a fudge of some sort, perhaps giving the Tajiks a degree of regional autonomy a la Kurdistan. It may be of course that there is a subtext here we are not seeing and that's control over the opium trade. If it means giving Abdullah's faction control over 20% of the opium trade Karzai won't be happy but it may have to be done.

JUPITER

2:20 AM ET

November 1, 2009

Deck chairs, Titanic, etc

Heaven forbid we have the wrong captain command this already sinking ship.

JSINAIKO

5:37 PM ET

November 1, 2009

Win win for who in the US?

Your stance on Afghanistan, given the fact that it has no real national government outside of Kabul, is a kleptocracy anyhow, and hasn't been shown to mean all that much in terms of the vital interests of the US is incomprehensible to me (and many others).

And you still haven't given a reasonable explanation of why you are such a hawk in this situation.

ADMIRAL

6:09 PM ET

November 1, 2009

Win Win for US?

Tell it to the killed and mutilated. Mr. Ricks seems to have no problem with our enlisted members being killed and mutilated for an heroin dealer. The matrix of lies coming from the Belt Way are at an all time high. The "Serious" are the real insurgents fighting against America wrapped in the flag.

War is peace. Slavery is Freedom. Afghanistan is a vital interest. The surge worked in Iraq. They hate us for our freedom. Read my lips, no new taxes. The fundementals of our economy are strong. Lies are truth.

R.HOWE

9:55 PM ET

November 1, 2009

admiral

Ya know, I agree with your criticisms of Orwellian language, and I share your desire to stop the killing, but you really go off the track when you accuse Mr. Ricks of "having no problem with our enlisted members being killed and mutilated." That is rank and unjust.

ADMIRAL

12:00 AM ET

November 2, 2009

Uber Hawks

Why is it unjust? Mr. Ricks is an uber hawk for war in Afghanistan. He is yet to explain why all of this is worthwhile. As an establishment spin writer, he is yet to explain in non Orwellian english how many more killed and mutilated he is willing to expend before throwing in the towel. By even hinting that he can live with the heroin dealer Karzai, he is asking Americans to be killed and mutilated for a low life criminal drug dealer, and a government that does not exist. If he really cared, would he ask them to lay their lives down for this fiasco? I hold all those accountable for their support of this rotten failure in Afghanistan. Anyone in America that supports this criminal insanity is responsible for the results. If he really cared, he would call for the withdrawl of US forces ASAP from SW Asia. Ricks supports empire and military domination of other people, while we go down the drain at home. This is not a game. Every day I think of the pain and suffering of our enlisted people and their families. I think of the thousands rotting away in VA hospitals completely forgotten. I also think of all those we have killed and mutiliated, especially the CHILDREN.

Mr. Ricks could be a big force for peace if he wanted. If he came out for withdrawl, he could shake some things up in DC. I hope he will wake up from the darkness and come to the right side of history. Of course he would be shunned, and he may not want to pay that kind of price.

MIKEDC

7:26 PM ET

November 1, 2009

It appears your friend Mac McAllister's prediction was faulty

Since Abdullah has now pulled out.

I could be wrong, I suppose, but I've heard and seen very little about our diplomatic efforts in Aghanistan. I could be wrong, but it seems to me the State Dept. hasn't exactly been putting a full court press on any policy.

SALOMANDER

8:42 PM ET

November 1, 2009

This fiasco has the fingerprints of

Sen John "Swifty" Kerry all over it.

Why Secretary of State Holbrooke and his assistant, Hillary Clinton, allowed this freelancing on such a key, and frankly simple issue is beyond me.

HAIRYSTEVE20

9:32 PM ET

November 1, 2009

Holbrooke

When the US clients in Vietnam got too embarrassing they got a bullet in the back of the head as a reward. Is it any wonder Karzai got nervous when he saw Holbrooke rolling into town. He probably refuses to speak to him now which is why Kerry went over. Clinton didn't want to be associated with an impending failure.

ZATHRAS

2:30 AM ET

November 2, 2009

My personal theory

My personal theory is that Dr. Abdullah withdrew from the runoff after getting confidential advice that his campaign slogan -- "the candidate so nice they named him twice" -- wasn't tracking with women and independents in swing provinces.

I'm not 100% convinced of this theory's validity, though, and the runner-up is pretty grim: Abdullah withdrew because he genuinely didn't think the runoff vote would be counted any more fairly than the August election and/or that Karzai and his supporters would not accept the result if Karzai lost. Supposing he did think this, and was correct; supposing further that NATO's leverage on Karzai toward the end of improving the Afghan government's performance and reducing its corruption emerges from the whole election process even more limited than it was before voting began. Then what?

I'm not sure why more commentators in the United States have not zeroed in on the election fiasco in Afghanistan and how much it appeared to surprise the White House. This to me seems one of the most important reasons Obama's strategic review has taken so long. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan is about buying time, as it was in Iraq. Buying time for what? Obama and his team thought the Afghan elections would help clarify the answer to that crucial question, and they've done the opposite.

ADMIRAL

4:35 PM ET

November 2, 2009

Heroin Dealer Karzai

We now have a puppet and heroin dealer all in one. America should be deeply ashamed for supporting and funding a drug dealer. Now that Karzai is official, his heroin market share will increase. It's time to legalize heroin in the US and treat the addicts as sick people instead of criminals. As long as we keep our drug policies as they are, criminals like Karzai will profit, while our enlisted people get killed amd mutilated protecting his heroin profits. The supporters of this war are the dumbest people in America.