When will the White House move?

This wouldn't be the first time a President timed a military/ foreign policy action or decision around an election. In 2004, the Bush administration didn't launch the second battle of Fallujah (the one that cleared the whole city) until after the presidential election was over.

And in 1942, FDR wanted to get US ground forces into action against the Germans in 1942 (in North Africa) and would have preferred that it occur before that year's Congressional elections so the Democrats would get a boost (turns out the invasion, Operation Torch, didn't go off until Nov 8th, a few days after the election was over).

I respect you man - but get real. Deeds is toast in Virginia. Corzine and Christie are having a contest to see who can be less popular. The issue in NJ is corruption, btw. Not the taliban.

You're saying that Obama is delaying a major foriegn policy division because of a VA election that's a foregone conclusion, and a NJ election that is all about local issues?

Give me a break, Tom

. . . is easily as unpopular as whichever decision he ends up making, so I sincerely doubt he would be so dumb as to delay the decision in the hopes of adding a sliver of support to any state-level candidates.

Jeez, you guys make wonder if Kyle would prefer to be shot at by the Taliban down in Oruzgan.
Best,
Tom

It is not hard for me to imagine that politics have to play a role in military decisions in a democracy, at least to the extent this country is still a democracy. After all, Lincoln made decisions during the Civil War, from the appointment of generals, the timing of the Emancipation Proclamation, and waiting to remove McClellan from command of the Army of the Potomac until after the off-year elections in November 1862. To sucessfully prosecute a war that at least to some extent depends on the consent of the governed, one will need political support and in Obama's case that means at least bringing along the majority of the Democratic Party as he can't depend on a faction of Repubilcans whose base essentially detests him and views him as a virtual traitor (see the comments of the practical head of the Republican Party, Rush Limbaugh).

Nevertheless, I don't think the current upcoming elections have played much role in this decision. These elections have been dominated by local issues, the economy, and the unease and unhappiness that independents and upper middle class moderate voters have about the taxpayer paid for bank bailout and large Federal Government deficits.

I know that Tom believes the President is "dithering," as I heard him say on WAMU earlier this week. Perhaps, but perhaps he is also trying to really grasp a fluid and deteroriating situation. I personally found Mr. Hoh's analyis in his letter of resignation persuasive http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/10/27/DI2009102703143.html and harmonious with the analysis of Andrew Bacevich about why, no matter how many troops we send, and how many dollars we spend, this is a war, an insurgency of the Pashtun Nation, that we cannot win. http://www.harpers.org/archive/2009/11/0082687

I hope that type of analysis doesn't find its way into your good writing, Tom.

Kyle should take another hard look at what he describes in reason 2 as "blah, blah, blah". Isn't a credible partner more important than blah blah to the counter insurgent?

And he has good aim, so watch out.
Best,
Tom

Further Explanation Yes, Retraction Never!
By Kyle Flynn

In regard to my recent comments on this very blog, I add the following:

While my reasoning has not changed on why I believe that the White House is timing its decision on whether to send more troops to Afghanistan with, among other things, the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, my initial comments seem to require some clarification.

Foremost, timing the decision on how to proceed in Afghanistan on the Pakistani Amy’s operation into South Waziristan, the Afghan runoff election on November 7th, and the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia is a smart move—-both politically and practically. Testing the rationale behind the assumptions on which I based my reasoning only solidified my initial opinion.

My mistake appears to have been word choice rather than substance: “timed” is much more appropriate than “delayed.” Sorry, my bad. Perhaps I’m too cynical but I believe that timing is everything in politics because administrations have only a finite amount of political capital to spend. Mr. Axelrod, Mr. Emmanuel, et al. are well aware of the degree to which the Afghanistan decision is going to upset likely voters. This is why politicians including President Obama love to take the middle ground on highly controversial issues. I only hope that this position does not inform U.S. policy in Afghanistan.
humor” in my post.

The gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia are of huge import to this White House. I don’t care whether Creigh Deeds is up in by ten points or not in Virginia. Dirty Jersey is where the money is right now because Jersey going Red is much more significant than Virginia or North Carolina reverting back from Blue to Red. This is big picture politics. While I am no expert on New Jersey's domestic issues, I do believe that the Afghanistan decision will weigh heavily on some Democratic and Independent voters and therefore could impact a close race.

There is also a psychological factor here that bodes trouble for the Administration’s allies in the 2010 midterm elections. If the Administration assumes it’s going to lose favor with some voters by making a decision, any decision on Afghanistan, then why not attempt to time that decision after the fate of Governor Corzine has been decided? To me this is smart politics. I was never suggesting that the White House’s decision on Afghanistan had been made four weeks ago and they were waiting until November 4th to proceed. For the record, I have no agenda. Nor do I suggest that President Obama is acting any differently than a Republican Administration would in a similar situation.

Love it or hate it, this is politics—and timing is everything.