Eyes on the Pakistani prize

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 3:52 PM Share

While we're all wanking away waiting for the White House to get off the dime on Afghanistan, some of the smart money stays focused on the real issue: the future of Pakistan. This is the real center of gravity in this mess. What does it profit a man if Pakistan falls apart while Afghanistan is stabilized?

David Rohde's fascinating series on being kidnapped by the Taliban concludes today with his escape. Good to read especially for how the Taliban has evolved in recent years. Or devolved.

Another David, Mr. Ignatius, continues his good reporting out of Pakistan, giving the strategic overview. This guy is so good, he should have his own blog!

I've been struck recently by the relative optimism about Pakistan from Iggie and another smart guy, Peter Bergen.

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EXPLORE:AFGHANISTAN, MILITARY, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, PAKISTAN, SECURITY, TALIBAN, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

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GREGG CARLSTROM

4:37 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Ignatius' "good reporting"?

Are we reading the same David Ignatius? He seems to be scribbling down whatever the Pakistani army and ISI tell him without giving it an ounce of critical scrutiny.

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

7:15 PM ET

October 22, 2009

scare quotes absolutely justified

Don't forget the editorials from the major newspapers!

Hey Tom, did you know what's the latest Georgetown party circuit question?

PRAHAPARTIZAN

7:11 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Slipping Like Sand Through Our Fingers

Pakistan is without a doubt the prize, but achieving success there can only be done by helping to broker some sort of resolution between Pakistan and India over Kashmir. The principal reason is that Pakistan cannot afford the two totally different armies it needs for the two campaigns it finds itself involved in. Did anyone notice the similarity between the Pakistani Army's push into the western provinces and the French Expeditionary Force in Indo-China when it conducted major campaigns like Operation Camargue and Operation Lorraine with heavy infantry pushing temporarily into the insurgents home turf but without the ability to remain there.

To confront India, it needs an armor-heavy mechanized force capable of operating in the border areas with India against another nation-state military. To engage the Taliban in the western provinces, Pakistan needs a light infantry COIN force operating at the battalion and company levels scattered across the landscape to deny the Taliban the social environment in which to survive.

For decades the Pakistani military has opted for the former. Now it needs the latter. Where does it get the funding to make the transition, much less to try to create and maintain both? We're going to need to retrain the Pakistani Army in addition to trying to create an Afghan National Force. But, first, we need to remove the albatross of Kashmir from around the neck of both India and Pakistan.

NORWEGIAN SHOOTER

7:12 PM ET

October 22, 2009

You've created a perfect echo chamber

Ignatius and Bergen, Biddle and Exum, an endless string of military commanders, Tom Donnelly, et al. Talk about fishy! I went back 4 screen pages and couldn't find a single anti-escalation link.

How come everybody you agree with (or cites you) is a smart guy?

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair

WALKING WOUNDED

8:23 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Center of effort vs center of focus

Great quote, NS.

Before we decide how to transform the nuclear Islamic Republic thru our amazing diplo-military superpowers, shouldn't we read up a bit on how it got the way it is, and our part in all that?

Understanding the nature of the place, our shared history, and perceptions of us over there would seem to be a prelude to figuring out what kind of (civil and regional) war it already is, on the road to maybe knowing how we want to play it from here.

Reality, what a concept.

Or we could go with 'if we build armed drones, they will shoot missiles at some earthen structure...'

Maybe it's time for another of Mr. Rick's reading lists?

Tom, maybe I missed it, but I'd like to know when you last visited the Kush. How are your personal connections and perceptions of the place and people informing your support for Stan's Plan, a 40K build up over and above what's stillin the pipeline. That will take us into 2011, before everybody's over there and posted to an AfPak duty station, no? Then wait for the 2012 thaw to judge the effect?

MDREW

4:05 AM ET

October 23, 2009

Because

there's no way the administration is working on Pakistan while determining the resource question in Afghanistan. Clearly they've got blinders on and see nothing but the political consequences of ordering a troop increase in Afghanistan.

DIABLOTAKAHE

6:11 AM ET

October 26, 2009

wanking

i would have thought you'd spent enough time with kilcullen to know just how rude a word this was. . . .

its like a huge commonwealth practical joke on americans. its even been on the simpsons.