Biddle against the middle

In September Biddle wrote: "Prepared Testimony by Stephen Biddle: "Assessing the Case for War in Afghanistan"

Biddle didn't consider a middle coarse -- he came down for more war. Just barely. It was a "close call".

But Biddle was wrong about the Taliban:

The Taliban also face major constraints in extending their influence beyond their ethnic base in southern and eastern Afghanistan. . .But whereas the government has members from many ethnic groups and a presumptive claim to the loyalty of all citizens, the Taliban has a much more exclusivist identity and is especially unpopular and unwelcome outside its geographic ethnic base.

from Radio Free Europe, Sep 24:

Security Worsens As Taliban Move Into Northern Afghanistan . . .Northern Afghanistan may now be on the Western radar, but the Taliban have been building up their forces there for more than a year and a half. The northern supply route from Tajikistan is intended to supplement the main southern passage through Pakistan, which has come under increasing attack by militants. The deputy governor of Konduz, Hamdullah Danesh, told RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan his region is an already well-established front line in the Afghan war.

And about the Afghan "government"

U.S. withdrawal poses important risks, too – and especially, it could easily cause an Afghan government collapse with potentially serious consequences for U.S. security.

In fact there is no effective Afghan government, except possibly in Kabul. The current re-election process will cause even more turmoil. But even with Biddle's mis-construed facts, it's still "a close call."

Withdrawal advocates certainly have a case. The stakes are not unlimited. The costs of pursuing them are high. And there is no guarantee that even a high-cost pursuit of COIN in Afghanistan will succeed given the inherent difficulties of the undertaking and the particular challenges of this theater in 2009. . .For me, this balance is a close call but ultimately favors the waging of war in Afghanistan.

As Biddle said:

The aggregate historical record of great power success in COIN is not encouraging.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/20220/

So US out of Afghanistan now.

I like Stephen personally, but that is a sound-bite, not an analytical position. There are certainly more than two options here: it is not simply a case of "go big, or go home." He should know better than that, he's spent enough time studying security issues.